Famine Looms – USA Gov Policy

It is looking more likely the developing world will face a major famine later this year as Ukrainian ports remain unable to export the agricultural commodities their populations need to survive. As international forums filled with policy makers and agricultural experts debate the impact of food shortages, they are only recently beginning to discuss the technical complications related to reopening Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea. Ukraine needs safe maritime routes in the near future to meet the demand for its grain. Although some overland routes are available, far less grain can be shipped safely across Ukrainian territory during the war with Russia.

“Everyone has already understood that there are mere weeks to unlock the seaports, including by military means, and recommence exports. We do have [non-maritime] alternatives that allow for export, but it is small cargo volumes compared to ports,” said Ukraine’s First Deputy Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Taras Vysotsky, according to a report by Bohdan Ustymenko of the Jamestown Foundation. Between March and May over 70 merchant vessels loaded with grain were unable to leave port due to the danger of armed attack by Russian forces.

One option used throughout history, although not without risk, is to create a naval convoy to protect shipments of grain. Vysotsky suggests a more viable option is for Ukraine to acquire a number of anti-ship weapons that can be deployed domestically and used to deter the Russian navy. Captain (ret.) Andrii Ryzhenko, a former officer in the Ukrainian Navy who served over 35 years at sea and ashore, says Ukraine needs a convincing sea denial capability; but to develop it, Kyiv will require assistance from its strategic international partners, including the United States. Andriy Klymenko, a Ukrainian expert said “There is no military solution to this problem now. To resolve the issue, the [Russian] Black Sea Fleet must be destroyed. Harpoon [anti-ship] missiles will not help.” As the summer heat increases in the coming weeks, shipments of wheat will begin rotting. He argues that it is time to build out critical railway infrastructure as other options may not work in the immediate future.

It appears unlikely NATO will risk unblocking the maritime routes by force. So far, the Royal Navy and the US have no immediate plans for a naval operation. The UN, according to one Ukrainian official, is considering a multilateral naval force to ensure safe passage of the grain through the Black Sea. The EU also is considering the possibility of establishing a naval mission to lift the Russian blockade on Ukrainian agricultural commodity exports, according to Eurointegration.com.au. Both plans, however, remain unlikely in the near future and may come too late for this year’s crops. At the end of May the Turkish government rejected the idea of US or British ships entering the Black Sea to escort Ukrainian ships carrying grain. Achim Steiner, the administrator of the United Nations Development Program, said that 70 poorer countries could end up in financial default over the grain, inflation, and other issues caused by the war in Ukraine. Although unlikely, perhaps some form of a humanitarian corridor protecting grain shipments in the Black Sea will work.

Other remaining challenges include the risk from the large number of Russian underwater mines that are floating freely in the Black Sea basin near Romania and Turkey, according to the Secretariat of the International Maritime Organization. The mines raise the risk to maritime crews of large and small vessels. Ships Russia sunk near Ukrainian ports also need to be raised and cleared by Kyiv, but the country lacks the type of equipment needed to remove them. The complicated technical dimensions of how to resolve this problem remain tantamount to populations throughout the developing world that depend on grain supplies from Ukraine. “In order to unblock Ukrainian seaports, a combination of various types of principal measures will have to be applied. These will arguably need to include providing Ukraine with a sufficient number of anti-ship weapons, reaching arrangements with Turkey on humanitarian demining in the Black Sea, and finding effective technical solutions for how to lift the sunken barges and cranes from the sea floor at port exits. No one “silver bullet” exists, but the window to act is closing rapidly,” according to Ustymenko.

Although developing countries will be the hardest hit, droughts and floods in various other grain growing regions around the world this year are further stressing global grain supplies. Sarah Menker, the CEO of the agricultural analytical company Gro Intelligence, testified recently before the United Nations Security Council that the “world has only 10 weeks of stored wheat reserves left” in warehouses. It is inexcusable that Western media has given little coverage to the impending famine.

World leaders will have their answer in the next two months.

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.

Photo: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.