End of the Mask-erade Part 2

Judge John Wilson (ret.)

It is also no secret that minorities have more hesitancy about taking the vaccine than white people. According to WebMD, “African Americans have nearly the lowest rates of vaccination among any ethnic group. In fact, white Americans are being vaccinated at a rate 3 times higher than Black Americans. New CDC figures show that of those who have received at least the first dose of a vaccine, 5.4% are Black people, compared to 60% who are white people…” One woman was asked why she would not get the vaccine. She said, “I’m not a person who clings on to conspiracy theories, but I simply do not trust the government at this point.” She cited to the “stain of the Tuskegee Study, the Henrietta Lacks case, and other examples of how Black people have been treated…(which) makes her skeptical. In the Tuskegee experiments, Black men with syphilis were promised treatment but didn’t receive it. Many of the men died, went blind, or developed other serious health issues. Henrietta Lacks’ cancer cells were used for medical research without her or her family’s knowledge, and without financial compensation.”

Hence, the new CDC rules – get vaccinated, and you can take off your mask.

Except for when you can’t. Despite the new recommendations, giving up that mask is impossible for some in authority. For instance, when asked if the mask mandate will be lifted in the House of Representatives, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) stated, “No. Are they all vaccinated?” According to the Washington Post, “(u)pdated guidelines issued…by Brian P. Monahan, the attending physician to Congress, say that the mask mandate will continue on the House floor ‘until all Members and floor staff are fully vaccinated.’”

This translates to never, since “(t)hree months after vaccinations were made available to all members of Congress, about 1 in 4 members of the House have not received the shots… Democrats have rejected the notion from Republicans that a 75 percent vaccination rate is a sufficient level to reopen the House of Representatives.”

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Giving credence to the belief that Pelosi and the Democrats merely enjoy the power that comes with enforcing mask mandates, according to the New York Times, “(s)ince the start of the pandemic, the figure that many epidemiologists have offered has been 60 to 70 percent (for “Herd immunity”). That range is still cited by the World Health Organization and is often repeated during discussions of the future course of the disease.”

Another state which has chosen to ignore the CDC’s new guidelines is Hawaii. “Gov. David Ige is bucking CDC guidance on mask wearing for fully vaccinated residents, saying he’ll keep his mask mandate in place for now…(t)he governor also acknowledged that while it ‘may be OK and safe’ for vaccinated individuals to forgo a mask in public, keeping the mandate in place benefits the broader community… The governor’s sentiments are in stark contrast to national trends ― and in opposition to Lt. Gov. Josh Green’s own opinion on the issue. Green told Hawaii News Now…that he believes the state’s mask mandate should be lifted for fully vaccinated residents. Lifting the mandate, he said, is ‘part of the process to return to normalcy and to trust the vaccines. It will have an impact as we go forward in having people do the right thing.’”

Will the CDC’s strategy work? Will lifting the mask guideline encourage people to get the vaccine?

In Fayetteville, Ark., Richard McGinnis and his staff at Richard’s Country Meat Market have had some difficult conversations already… McGinnis is skeptical of the idea that lifting mask mandates will encourage vaccine holdouts to get the shot. ‘If they’re not going to, they’re not going to,’ he said. ‘There’s vaccines sitting on the shelves. They could have one this afternoon if they want one.’ Still, he’s not worried about unvaccinated people coming into the store. He and his employees are all fully vaccinated and therefore, according to the CDC, protected. He welcomed last week’s change in CDC guidance as it finally made clear why vaccinations are important. If you still had to wear a mask after getting vaccinated, he’d wondered, what was the point?”

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.