The Manhattan Institute has debunked the Progressive push to sharply reduce the prison population, a move highlighted by Pennsylvania’s Democratic Senate candidate John Fetterman.
Fetterman has recommended providing gubernatorial pardons for convicted murderers as part of an overall move to reduce the number of people in the prison population.
According to a Manhattan Institute study, “The size of America’s prison population is driven by the incarceration of violent felons. These felons are held mostly in state prisons, which account for nearly 90% of inmates nationwide. Most prisoners are serving time for violent or weapons offenses, and the vast majority of them—even those incarcerated for nonviolent drug and property offenses—will go on to re-offend, sometimes by committing serious or violent felonies. Slashing the prison population to match levels in the Western European democracies would require releasing significant numbers of violent and chronic offenders serving time for crimes that most Americans agree should lead to prison. Reducing or eliminating sentences would diminish the incapacitation benefits of incarceration and, given the extremely high rates of recidivism, would expose society to large numbers of people likely to commit more crimes.”
The report notes that 60% of state prisoners are serving time for murder, rape, assault, robbery, or burglary—four times the number convicted only of drug offenses. Despite the portion of prisoners in for serious and violent offenses, less than 15% of state felony convictions result in more than two years served in prison; even 20% of those imprisoned for murder, and nearly 60% of those imprisoned for rape or sexual assault, serve less than five years of their sentences. Most prisoners will re-offend post-release. 83% of released state prisoners are arrested for a new offense at least once after their initial release. More than one-third of those convicted of violent felonies in large urban counties had an active criminal-justice status—that is, either on probation, parole, or out pending the disposition of a prior case—when they committed their offense.
Other studies point to the accuracy of the Manhattan Institute’s research. A Politico report refutes the Progressive contention that drug crimes represent an excessive portion of the prison population.
“Drug crime is not what’s driving the high prison population in the United States. It’s crimes of violence. And this omission has consequences. It means that any “solution” is unlikely to achieve its intended goal and in the meantime society will continue to suffer long-term damage—physical, psychological and economic—from a persistent cycle of unaddressed violent crime. The numbers are unambiguous. For all the attention we pay to people convicted of drug crimes, they make up only 15 percent of our state prison populations. Over half the people serving time in state prisons have been convicted of a violent crime; half of those convicted of violence—or more than 25 percent of all prisoners—have been convicted of the most serious crimes: murder, manslaughter or sexual assault.”
The de-incarceration movement ignores history. A 2015 Pew analysis noted that “In the early 1990s, with violent crime at record levels and public alarm growing, federal and state lawmakers responded with new policies that sent more offenders to prison for longer periods. The federal Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act of 1994, in particular, made sweeping changes to U.S. correctional policy by imposing longer prison sentences for federal crimes and encouraging states to implement similar penalties. Two decades later, the nation’s prison population has soared and crime has fallen to levels not seen since the 1960s.”
The lessons of that success story are being ignored by those who advocate reducing the prison population.
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