Dr. Anne Pierce on Vernuccio/Novak

Is Russia preparing for long-term war with the West? Military analysts in Washington this week are evaluating the impact of President Putin’s recent acceleration of societal militarization. He appears to be bolstering his country’s mobilization capacity while simultaneously reducing access to higher education. The question is — to what end? The Kremlin is employing progressively aggressive conscription tactics and increasing the pace and breadth of its expansion of military training in civilian education. It is just in time for the April spring draft. The goal, according to Hlib Parfonov writing in the Eurasian Daily Monitor, is to create a long-term competent military force. He points out that to reinforce centralized military control, Russia is opening more Military Training Centers and reopening command academies. The move is viewed as a response to heavy losses in Ukraine and a desperate attempt to replenish its officer and non-commissioned ranks. “[Western] Europe’s lack of preparation risks leaving it underprepared if tensions with Russia continue to rise,” says Parfonov. Worse yet, Russia may be learning from the Ukraine war experience in how to implement comprehensive reforms, that include providing universal military training for all students and military departments in universities and expansion of reserve mobilization structures. Last week Russian riot police and military enlistment officers conducted a joint raid on the Moscow Spirit Fitness Club in search of people evading military enlistment. Reports indicate that the Kremlin is calling for the expansion of this type of raid across the country. It left those in the Moscow club with their faces planted on the floor, and separated by ethnicity, while officers verified their military registration. At a time when much of the world is moving forward with advanced technologies, Russia is undergoing a “reverse industrialization,” says Parfonov. Instead of expanding access to higher education, the Kremlin is promoting vocational training and military service. Last month the Asian daily Monitor reported that those who were able to study in institutions of higher learning had to comply with new mobilization and military training programs instituted by the Kremlin. Army Help, a Russian publication, says that the concept of military training programs within civilian educational institutions replicates the former Soviet Union’s “military departments,” where students would go to avoid conscription. A change in the present system, is the addition of a new Russian government resolution calling for the consolidation of all military departments and faculties into “Military Training Centers” to more effectively support Russia’s defense and security. The number of centers increased from 93 in 2019, to 137 last year, with more than 60,000 students participating in training under them this year. “Given the scale of Russia’s losses in its war against Ukraine and the need for a continuous flow of trained reserves, this system plays a crucial role in sustaining the country’s military capabilities, according to the January edition of the Bulletin of Military Education. Putin lacks junior and mid-level commanders in his armed forces. The Russian system employs top-down control and emphasizes centralization. This is due, in part, to poorly educated troops under the dictatorship, with authoritarian forms of control common throughout the country. These critical lower-level commanders form what is known in Russian as a core part of ensuring “Befehlstaktik,” or the execution of detailed orders. The pace of similar military programs outside of Russia is slow. Poland is the only Western country to have a program with about 16,000 graduates. Other European nations, including Germany, are reassessing their need for similar style training given their past reliance on NATO forces. In recent years, however, Europe has been trending toward the downsizing of its armed forces. It resulted in severe personnel shortages. In Germany, its military recruiting currently falls short by over 260,000, due to the suspension of compulsory military service in 2011. Even if Berlin reinstates a program in response to the war in Ukraine, it will take years to implement. Other European states are also slow in moving toward programs to increase and train new military personnel. As of March 2025, Ukraine has only limited military training departments in its universities. Although starting in September, it will finally institute universal military training for all university students in the country. Russia, with its rapid militarization efforts, recognized the value of a trained reserve force. The ongoing war in Ukraine in 2025 raises concerns about Europe’s response to the ongoing conflict, should tensions rise with a new Russian escalation. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Photo: Pixabay