It is a potentially tragic replay of the carelessness that led to a lack of adequate preparation for the devastating attack on Pearl Harbor. The White House, the media, and many others, including corporations seeking to do or expand business in China, continue to downplay the very real potential for armed conflict with that nation.
Beijing’s aggressiveness stems from its new military prowess, its alliance with Russia and Iran, the decline of the American military, and the reluctance of the Obama Administration to diplomatically support regional allies.
The school of thought that the massive trade between the U.S. and China could prevent a war is not substantiated by history. Britain and Germany were each other’s most important trading partners before World War One, for example, and that certainly didn’t stop the conflagration that marked a turning point in history.
The consequences of a direct clash between the two superpowers could prove devastating, particularly since the shrunken American military would be fighting an opponent more powerful than any other in living memory.
A number of worrisome reports have been recently issued.
The U.S- China Economic and Security Review Commission has highlighted the specific danger from China’s rapidly increasing missile arsenal:
“Beijing [has developed] conventional missile capabilities to target U.S. military facilities in the Asia Pacific in general, and Guam in particular…Several new conventional platforms and weapons systems developed by China in recent years have increased its ability to hold U.S. forces stationed on Guam at risk in a potential conflict… China’s commitment to continuing to modernize its strike capabilities indicates the risk will likely grow going forward.
“The current array of Chinese conventional missiles able to reach Guam includes:
- the DF-26 intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM), not yet a precision strike weapon but potentially of concern in large numbers;
- 2) the DF-26 antiship ballistic missile (ASBM), unproven against a moving target at sea but undergoing further development;
- 3) air-launched land-attack cruise missiles (LACMs), launched from bombers with a high probability of being detected and intercepted by U.S. aircraft and anti-aircraft systems;
- 4) air-launched antiship cruise missiles (ASCMs), with the same aircraft limitation;
- 5) sealaunched ASCMs, of concern should the platforms be able to move into range undetected, a challenge for China’s relatively noisy submarines; and
- 6) sea-launched LACMs, which China does not currently field but is likely working to develop.
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“To evaluate China’s ability to strike Guam going forward, the areas that should be monitored most closely are increased deployments of DF-26 missiles and qualitative improvements to China’s precision strike capabilities, bomber fleet, in-air refueling capability, and submarine quieting technology.
“Guam, a territory of the United States, is growing in importance to U.S. strategic interests and any potential warfighting operations in the Asia Pacific, even as China’s ability to strike the island is increasing. Such attacks could hold key U.S. assets stationed on Guam at risk and also disrupt their region-wide response effort, slowing deployment timetables and reducing the effectiveness of U.S. forces in the theater. China’s leaders could also be more willing to resort to military force in an existing crisis if they believed they could successfully hold Guam at risk, diminishing the United States’ ability to deter an escalation, although it is difficult to determine the extent to which better operational capabilities influence strategic thinking in Beijing.
“Options such as hardening facilities on Guam, further dispersing U.S. regional military facilities, continuing investments in “next-generation” missile defense capabilities, revisiting the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) Treaty, and maintaining superiority in regional strike capabilities offer potential avenues for addressing these key security concerns.”
The Rand organization doesn’t believe that a Sino-American war is necessarily coming, but worries that “As Chinese anti-access and area-denial (A2AD) capabilities improve, the United States can no longer be so certain that war would follow its plan and lead to decisive victory.”
China’s commitment to developing an armed force capable of extending its range across significant distances can be seen in its development of heavy transport military aircraft. Geoff Ziezulewicz, writing for UPI, reported that “China’s homegrown Y-20 heavy transport aircraft entered service with the People’s Liberation Army during its maiden flight [on July 26].”
China’s new global reach can be seen in its development of a new naval facility in Africa, its growing presence in the Caribbean, (including port facilities on both sides of the Panama Canal) its participation in naval maneuvers in the Mediterranean, and, as reported by the Arab news sources al-Arabiya its plans to commit military forces to the Middle East in cooperation with Russia, Syria, and Iran.