Dangerous Unrest in Pakistan

Military experts are watching Russia closely after Putin’s nuclear threat toward the West. Political analysts are looking eastward toward China after Xi Jinping’s unprecedented consolidation of power during last week’s National Party Congress. Few, however, are paying attention to the supercharged environment in Pakistan since April when then-Prime Minister Imran Khan was ousted in a parliamentary no-confidence vote.

He blames the United States, claiming Washington colluded with Pakistan’s Army to remove him from office. When he demanded the new government step down, it responded by cracking down on Khan and those attending his expansive rallies. A week ago, the Pakistan Election Commission found Khan guilty of corrupt practices and barred him from politics. The charge was that he allegedly failed to disclose money he received from gifts sold that were given to him by foreign dignitaries.

“Two days later, Arshad Sharif, one of Pakistan’s most prominent journalists, was killed” by police in a case of mistaken identity in Nairobi, according to Reuters. “These developments not only threaten to intensify Pakistan’s political polarization, but they also increase the uncertainty swirling around its immediate political future,” according to Michael Kugelman, writing in Foreign Affairs. Although Khan acknowledges his opponents had a political motivation, there is less certainty about the length of time he is disqualified from the political arena.

One High Court judge in Islamabad stated the punishment only extends over the present parliamentary term ending in fall 2023. If this is determined to be accurate, Khan would be free to run in Pakistan’s next national elections. Sharif’s death hit the nation hard. He was known to be close to Khan. Kugelman points out that he also supported the military until he lost his position at ARY News this summer after allegedly criticizing the military on social media. There is widespread speculation the current Pakistan government was involved in the killing with Kenyan authorities.

Pakistan has a history of assassinating Pakistani trust in the security institutions in the country has dramatically decreased recently while support for Khan is growing among his popular base. Despite the government offering to investigate the killing, few are satisfied that Islamabad will find the answer. This week Khan announced a modern “long march” of over 235 miles from Lahore to Islamabad, with supporters scheduled to arrive in the capital next Friday, November 4. They are demanding early elections. The government, fearing a loss, has rejected new elections. The big question remaining is how the government will react to the protesters once they reach the capital. In the past, Khan backed down when the government threatened a crack down. There are concerns he may not back down next week.

Kugelman says that in an extraordinary press conference on Thursday, “Pakistan’s army spokesperson and spy chief both denied many of Khan’s allegations about the military and the US government colluding in his ouster.” Analysts see this as an indication that the government will take a hard line when Khan and supporters arrive. Further confusing politics is Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa’s decision not to seek another term next month in what is essentially the government’s most powerful position. The current government has yet to announce who will replace him, although it is unlikely to be a Khan supporter. Kugelman says the political atmosphere lately has the nation on edge.

The country already is suffering from high inflation with millions still in need of help from catastrophic flooding earlier this year. Pakistan is reeling from one problem to another, making it a hotbed for instability in the region. According to the Economic Times, on October 21, Khan announced he will remain “silent” as he does not want to “damage” the country and its institutions.

The question remaining is whether his statement is enough to keep a lid on potentially explosive violence in the capital once he and his supporters arrive. Khan says that although the government failed to protect protesters on May 25, his march will be peaceful and not enter the high security “red zone” in the capital. The government has yet to confirm its position on the march although Interior Minister Rana Sanaullah did tell reporters in Islamabad this week that if anyone is out of order the government plans to respond with an “iron hand.”

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Department

Photo: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

U.S. Navy Losing Dominance

From the Caribbean to the Mediterranean to the Pacific, the naval forces of Russia and China have challenged the once-dominant position of the United States. On July 18, U.S. Army Gen. Laura J. Richardson, in a speech at the Aspen Institute, warned that Russian warships have been making port visits to Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua, and 22 nations in the U.S. Southern Command’s area of responsibility has signed on to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, the commander of Southcom told attendees of the Aspen Security Forum. Army Gen. Laura J. Richardson said the nations that have signed on to the Chinese initiative don’t see the investments the U.S. has been making in their countries. “All they see are the Chinese cranes,” she said. “These projects are in the billions of dollars. … They are big-time projects.” Richardson said it would be OK with her if those investments were for doing good in the hemisphere. “But it makes me a little suspicious when it’s in the critical infrastructure.” Critical infrastructure, she said, includes deep-water ports, cybersecurity, energy and space. “I worry about the dual use nature of that. These are state-owned enterprises by a communist government. I worry about the flipping of that to a military application,” Richardson said, referring to China. Regarding the Russian port visits, Richardson said U.S. vessels have been shadowing those vessels to ensure the safety and security of the United States. Also, the Russians continue to make high-level government visits to Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua with their foreign affairs minister and the head of the Russian legislative body, she said, adding that the U.S. could be doing more in its own government exchanges. “I really believe that economic security and national security go hand in hand here in this hemisphere, and we have got to work both of them together very, very quickly,” she said. In the Mediterranean, according to the Bulgarian Military A fleet, including the missile cruiser Varyag and the frigate Marshal Shaposhnikov, has successfully navigated the Suez Canal, transitioning from the Mediterranean Sea to the Red Sea, as confirmed by the Pacific Fleet [PF] on Wednesday. The authoritative GIS Reports notes that “In the crucial Indo-Pacific, the tide has changed dramatically against America. the balance of naval power in the Western Pacific has been altered in favor of the Chinese Navy. For instance, the U.S. Navy went from having a 76-warship advantage over China in 2005 to having a 39-combatant deficiency in 2023, based on similar ship and submarine comparisons. That is a swing of 115 naval platforms in 23 years. This is a strategic trend that will continue uninterrupted for at least the next decade.” Rep. Mike Rogers has previously pointed out that The Biden Administration’s 30-year ship-building plan reduces the Navy’s ability to protect its aircraft-carrier strike groups and eliminate enemy minefields, reduces the Marine Corps’ ability to conduct forcible-entry missions, and reduces by almost 10 percent the Navy’s capacity to launch missiles. Public estimates indicate that China will eventually develop a global force of submarines capable of launching ballistic missiles, posing an obvious risk to the U.S. China’s surface-combatant forces already greatly exceed that of the U.S. Photo: Vessels attached to a flotilla with the navy under the PLA Southern Theater Command sail toward the designated area during a comprehensive combat training exercise in late June, 2024. (eng.chinamil.com.cn/Photo by Huang Jiacheng and Wang Jian)