Countering the China Model

China is seeking to replace the American model of freedom with its own brand of authoritarian rule and the denial of individual liberty throughout the Indo-Pacific region.

Freedom House notes that The Beijing regime has established an authoritarian political system controlled by the Chinese Communist Party. Since 2007, Chinese authorities have tightened official controls over the media and civil society, and backtracked on legal reforms they enacted in the 1990s and early 2000s. The ruling Communist Party has chosen to prioritize party control at the expense of building autonomous legal and political institutions. Chinese authorities routinely suppress dissidents who attempt to peacefully exercise their constitutional rights.

The threat is that China seeks to export its dictatorial model. The Washington Post notes that China’s President Xi Jinping is eager to do so. In numerous speeches, beginning at least at the 19^th Party Congress in October 2017, Xi has reiterated his belief that “[China] offers a new option for other countries and nations…”

The Council of Foreign Relations concurs with that view, noting that In recent decades, China has captivated the world with its ambitious foreign policy. A major part of this story is China’s Belt and Road Initiative, a massive infrastructure and trade project that has poured billions of dollars into developing nations. But some scholars say that China is also seeking to export its authoritarian model of government and erode global democratic norms.

The Trump Administration has responded with its “Indo-Pacific Transparency Initiative.”

The effort includes more than 200 programs, costing $1 billion, that promote civil society, rule of law, and transparent and accountable governance across the region. They focus on anti-corruption and fiscal transparency, democracy assistance, youth and emerging leader development, media and internet freedom, and protecting fundamental freedoms and human rights.

The programs are broadly categorized as combatting corruption, promoting fiscal transparency, aiding democratic practices, assisting youth and emerging leaders in understanding free government practices, encouraging media and internet freedom, and advocating human rights and fundamental freedoms.

The anti-corruption efforts include the work of the Global Anti-Corruption Consortium, an effort that brings together investigative journalists and advocacy groups to expose corruption and drive reform.

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There are a number of examples of how the Initiative has operated.

Along with Australia, the U.S. is supporting democratic elections in Burma. The programs equip political parties, women, and youth candidates with an improved understanding of election procedures and regulations and enable Burma’s emerging leaders, including women, young adult candidates, and future political leaders, to attend Leadership Training Schools. Activities will also support international election observers and post-election dispute resolution.

In the Pacific Islands, USAID assisted the Autonomous Region of Bougainville in Papua New Guinea and Solomon Islands by providing technical assistance to the Electoral Commission during the August 2020 election period, promoting inclusivity and the safe conduct of elections during a pandemic

Another endeavor, the Young Southeast Asian Leaders Initiative promotes civic engagement and emerging leader development. Next year, this part of the Initiative will focus on human capital and healthcare, citizen journalism, good governance and civil society, and digital governance and digital economy.

No Initiative, no matter how generous or skillfully planned, will be effective if regional governments are forced to live in fear of Beijing’s military might and its willingness to use it. Over the next four years, the success of State Department efforts will require a creditable military deterrent from the U.S. and its allies.

Both in terms of trade and defense, the future of the 21^st Century depends on the political development of the Indo-Pacific region. Unfortunately, with the rise of China’s military strength and economic influence, that future has appeared somewhat bleak. The Trump Administration has sought to exercise both military funding increases and diplomatic initiatives to change that course.

Photo: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.