The New York Analysis of Policy and Government continues its presentation of the National Air and Space Intelligence Center’s (NASC) report detailing developing trends in the space domain and the growing challenges posed by foreign space assets.
TRENDS IN SPACE
Space technologies play a fundamental role in the day-to-day affairs of the public, businesses, governments, and militaries worldwide. Satellite remote sensing, communications, and navigation systems enable real-time access to information necessary to connect people, operate a global economy, respond to natural disasters, and support military operations. While technological advancement in the space domain has created new opportunities, it has also created new risks and vulnerabilities across these sectors. For the U.S. and its allies, maintaining the leading edge in warfighting requires understanding evolving trends in the space domain.
SPACE APPLICATIONS
Reconnaissance and Remote Sensing
Reconnaissance and remote sensing satellites collect images, electronic emissions, and other data across the globe to meet a variety of customer needs. There are a number of civil and commercial applications for remote sensing data, such as environmental monitoring, urban planning, and disaster response. High demand for this data and falling costs for capable technology have spurred the rapid growth and proliferation of these satellites. A decade ago, foreign remote sensing satellites numbered nearly 100 — by mid2018, that number reached over 300.
In addition to civil and commercial uses, these satellites provide military and intelligence collection capabilities. They have reduced the ability of all countries to perform sensitive military activities undetected. The images on the right show Chinese commercial imagery of several sensitive U.S. locations.
China and Russia have the largest remote sensing satellite fleets outside the U.S. Additionally, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and the Russian Ministry of Defense are reportedly capable of employing their respective civil and commercial remote sensing satellites to supplement military-dedicated capabilities.
As of May 2018, the Chinese reconnaissance and remote sensing fleet consisted of more than 120 satellites designed to collect data for civil, commercial, or military owners and operators. Reportedly, the PLA owns and operates about half of these systems, most of which could support monitoring, tracking, and targeting of U.S. forces. These satellites also allow the PLA to maintain situational awareness of China’s regional rivals (e.g., India and Japan) and potential regional flashpoints (e.g., Korea, Taiwan, and the East and South China Seas).
Russia has sought to sustain its reconnaissance and remote sensing satellite fleet despite funding shortfalls, economic sanctions, and technological setbacks since the end of the Cold War. This fleet contains at least 20 satellites, half reportedly owned and operated by the Russian Ministry of Defense. Despite possessing fewer satellites, it is widely accepted that the capabilities of individual Russian reconnaissance and remote sensing satellites exceed the individual capabilities of Chinese satellites. For Russia, these systems reportedly support ongoing military operations in Syria, but can also monitor U.S. and allied forces operating globally.
Satellite Communications
Global communications networks rely on satellite communications systems for worldwide voice communications, television broadcast, broadband internet, mobile services, and data transfer. Satellite communications systems are rapidly deployable, expandable, and affordable, and the demand for services continues to rise worldwide.
Today, most communications satellites operate in geosynchronous orbit more than 22,200 miles above the Earth. This distance provides wider coverage of the globe with fewer satellites; however, it is more expensive to place satellites in orbit at this distance. To reduce cost and gain new markets, satellite communications service providers have proposed future constellations of thousands of satellites in low and medium orbits. Better technology promises greater affordability, efficiency, and flexibility for civil, government, and military users worldwide.
Many countries operate satellite communications systems and lease commercial services for official government communications worldwide. Competitors to the U.S. rely on these systems for military command and control, In addition, most shampoos and conditioners have a lathering agent that makes it easier for people to build trust and buy it instead of other generic professional cialis pills of erectile dysfunction available in the market are too much costly whereas kamagra is an effective medicine for the online users. Make sure you reduce your fat buy viagra cheap intake to increase ejaculation volume. generic cialis overnight The dosage pattern is quite trouble-free. Using this medicine in combination with any discount tadalafil of the following medicines: astemizole cisapride terfenadine. particularly in places inaccessible by terrestrial communications.
China plans to expand services beyond Asia by providing satellite communications to users worldwide and exporting domestically developed systems. China is testing multiple next-generation capabilities, such as the world’s first quantum communications satellite, and plans to develop at least three new constellations. Russia maintains a satellite communications fleet that provides resilient services to civil, government, and military users within its borders and worldwide.
Russia has taken steps to modernize its satellite communications systems, but continues to lag behind other worldwide providers.
Satellite Navigation
The 1991 Gulf War and subsequent U.S. military operations illustrated the value of the U.S. GPS satellite navigation system for troop movement, force tracking, and precision munition delivery. This prompted other countries to develop their own satellite navigation systems. Today, satellite navigation services are critical to military and civilian users worldwide, with applications in navigation, munitions guidance, communications, agriculture, banking, and power supply. Advances in satellite navigation technology offer foreign countries improved military situational awareness and accuracy in precision-guided munitions.
Russia and the European Union currently operate worldwide satellite navigation systems (GLONASS and Galileo, respectively), while India and Japan operate regional navigation systems (NavIC and QZSS, respectively). China’s satellite navigation system, known as BeiDou, offers satellite navigation services in Asia. The rise of these foreign satellite navigation services reduces dependence on GPS and provides worldwide users multiple satellite navigation options.
In 2017, China began deployment of its nextgeneration, worldwide BeiDou constellation, scheduled for full operation in 2020. The BeiDou constellation also offers text messaging and user tracking through its Short Message Service, to enable mass communications for specific BeiDou users and provide additional command and control capabilities for the Chinese military. Russia’s GLONASS constellation provides worldwide satellite navigation services. Following the constellation’s deterioration in the late 1990s, Russia committed to reconstituting GLONASS during the 2000s. With full capacity regained in 2011, Russia now launches satellites as needed to maintain the constellation while developing next generation GLONASS satellites.
Space Launch Capabilities
Since the start of the “Space Race” in 1957, the number of countries capable of placing satellites in space has grown beyond the U.S. and former Soviet Union. Today, nine countries and one international organization can independently launch spacecraft: China, India, Iran, Israel, Japan, Russia, North Korea, South Korea, the U.S., and the European Space Agency.
Many countries developed space launch capabilities to compete in the international market or to advance national security strategies that require domestic access to space. Iran and North Korea maintain independent space launch capabilities that could also test ballistic missile technologies. The graphic above indicates the global spacefaring nations’ capabilities to launch satellites into different orbits.
China and Russia are updating their space launch capabilities to increase responsiveness, reduce launch timelines, improve manufacturing efficiencies, and support future human spaceflight and deep space exploration missions. The graphic below depicts Chinese and Russian light-, medium-, heavy-, and proposed super heavy-lift space launch vehicles.
China and Russia are updating their medium- and heavy-lift launch fleets to include new, modular launch vehicles with common designs that increase manufacturing efficiency, launch vehicle reliability, and overall cost savings for space launches.
China has developed and fielded light, quick response space launch vehicles capable of expedited launches. Compared to medium- and heavy-lift launch vehicles, quick response systems require little launch infrastructure, can relocate by road or rail, can be stored launch-ready for longer periods, but are only capable of launching small satellite payloads into low orbits. China designed quick response space launch vehicles to increase its attractiveness as a commercial small satellite launch provider and to rapidly reconstitute space capabilities in low Earth orbit during disasters or conflicts.
China and Russia are currently in the early stages of developing super heavylift space launch vehicles similar to the U.S. Space Launch System. These super heavy-lift vehicles could support future Chinese and Russian crewed lunar and Mars exploration missions.
The Report Concludes Tomorrow
Illustration: U.S. Surveillance Satellite (U.S. Defense Department)