China’s Vast Spy Network

I spy with my little eye, something beginning with the letter “C.”

Remember the children’s guessing game? Today it is no longer solely a way to pass time on a long road trip. There is a new reality confronting the United States as “C” — China — expands and deepens it spy operations across the country. Under the Trump Administration FBI Director Chris Wray says it opened a new spy case against China every 10 hours. Today that number remains high with the FBI opening a new case of suspected Chinese spying every 12 hours. Less than a week ago the US Department of Justice (DOJ) announced “A federal jury… convicted Yanjun Xu, a Chinese national and Deputy Division Director of the Sixth Bureau of the Jiangsu Province Ministry of State Security, of conspiring to and attempting to commit economic espionage and theft of trade secrets. The defendant is the first Chinese intelligence officer to be extradited to the United States to stand trial.” He will not be the last as the US Government is ramping up efforts to constrain Chinese state-sponsored spying against American commercial interests and governmental entities.

Out of necessity the US developed a coordinated response to the Chinese threat which today includes over 50 government agencies that share information and investigative resources. According to a source inside the FBI, over 25 years ago China already had more than 5,000 suspected agents operating in the Washington, DC area alone. They were known as the xiǎo yú or “little fish,” (小鱼) with each member of the school responsible for picking up a small bit of information that China then gathered and put together like pieces of a puzzle. Today that number may be much higher, and it certainly reaches across the entire nation.

“American culture is open and sharing, making it relatively easy for the Chinese government to acquire commercial intelligence. Often the technical guys don’t realize the danger when they share a small fact about their research… China collects from a lot of cutting-edge engineers,” according to one intelligence source. The FY 2021 budget provides funding for a total of 978 FBI special agents across the entire Bureau making collaboration and coordination of its resources critical to pushing back against Chinese spying.

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According to publicly available information, there were 160 incidents of spying against the United States since 2000. Of those, 24% occurred between 2000-2009 and 76% occurred between 2010-2021, according to a Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) survey. Eight-nine of these occurred after President Xi Jinping took power, CISC reports. In addition, the survey identified more than 1200 cases of intellectual property theft litigation brought by US companies against Chinese entities in either the US or Chinese legal systems. The total number probably is much higher. Bill Evanina, a former top-level official in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) said the Yanjun Xu case “is going to be… used for decades as the proof that the Chinese Communist Party uses a whole of government approach to steal our technology.”

Information released earlier this year by DOJ suggests that about 80% of all its economic espionage prosecutions would benefit the Chinese state and about 60% of all trade secret theft cases involve the coordination of theft with China.The CIA recently established the China Mission Center which, according to CIA Director William Burns, will refocus Agency efforts at countering the threat from China. That means recruiting and training people in the language and culture of China. It will take time and scarce resources. According to one former CIA agent, the ideal candidate would be a fluent Mandarin speaker, with an advanced degree in artificial intelligence. Hopefully, some of those American children who grew up innocently playing “I spy” will choose to serve their country as patriotic adults.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Friday, she presents key updates on China

Quick Analysis

Putin’s Saber Rattling

Earlier this week, President Biden reversed his 2022 decision, authorizing the provision of antipersonnel land mines to the Ukrainian government. It follows an earlier Administration authorization to allow the use of an advanced American missile system capable of striking as deep as 100 miles inside Russian territory. The US election season may be ending, but both Russia and the West show no indication of stepping down the conflict. Russian propaganda continues to swell as the Kremlin increases its threats to use nuclear weapons against the West. Last week Andrey Sushentsov, program director of the pro-Kremlin think tank Valdai Discussion Club (VDC), published an article on growing nuclear tensions in the region. Official Russian language in the last few years has been threatening. Since the US election, rhetoric like that in the Sushentsov article, has approached the level of nuclear blackmail. The VDC article’s main theme centers on Russia’s intent to directly confront the West militarily if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) becomes involved in Russia’s conflict with Ukraine. “On the one hand, these threats are intended to frighten the West, but on the other, Russian propagandists themselves are starting to believe in the inevitability of escalation,” according to Ksenia Kirillova of the Jamestown Foundation. On November 11, Sushentsov wrote that “The conflict will reach a completely new level, with unpredictable consequences for Europe and the entire world.” Kirillova points out that Putin’s distorted image of the world is divorced from reality and is causing the Kremlin to issue demands that are impossible to fulfill. Financial and other Russian resources needed to support Putin’s war are growing scarcer at the same time. This week the Kremlin announced a reduction of payments to its soldiers. Recently North Korea acknowledged it was sending soldiers to fight in Ukraine as Putin is running out of bodies to use as cannon fire. The war is not going well for Russia. One question floating around the Washington intelligence community is whether Putin will act out of desperation before President-elect Trump assumes office. In recent months the Russian propaganda machine is spewing out materials from fairly reputable analytical platforms inside the country. Kirillova says that “Kremlin ‘experts’ do not conceal that such threats are only intended to break the West psychologically, as they themselves are not prepared for full-scale nuclear war.” Despite Russia’s lack of preparation for an all-out war with the West, the expanding nuclear rhetoric carries with it an increase in the threat of a full-scale war in multiple theaters of operation. In June 2023 a founder of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Sergey Karaganov, called for “delivering a pre-emptive strike of retaliation” on Poland to force the West to surrender. In the previous month, Dmitry Suslov, a direct of research programs at the policy center proposed organizing “a demonstration nuclear explosion” aimed at intimidating the West. In September, President Putin announced a reappraisal of Russian nuclear doctrine after speaking earlier in the year at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum and jokingly calling Suslov a “scary person.” Pavel Baev, writing in the European Daily Monitor, says “Putin intends his announcement to mark an escalation of nuclear brinkmanship and influence the proceedings of future Ukrainian peace efforts.” Putin is expanding the list of environmental conditions that are acceptable for using a nuclear weapon and incorporating it into Russian military doctrine. Baev adds that “The ups and downs of Russian brinkmanship are disconnected from the kinetic battles of the war, correlating instead with Ukrainian peace offensives, such as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s first peace summit in Bürgenstock, Switzerland.” Despite the increase in vitriolic language, in a You Tube video published a week before the US presidential election, Karaganov openly assured the West the primary goal of the escalation is to break the American spirit and that of the West, not outright nuclear war. By Election Day in the US, with political prognosticators predicting a win for former president Trump, Karaganov changed his tune and called for an increased role in nuclear deterrence. Kirillova points out that Western concessions to Russia are unlikely to reduce the risk of nuclear escalation. The distorted reality inside the Kremlin continues to push that President-elect Trump is an adherent of “world government,” that Ukraine will create a nuclear weapon, and Russia must prepare for a nuclear conflagration to achieve its ambitions for a new world order. President-elect Trump has indicated he will not agree to concessions that destabilize Europe, the Middle East or other regions. Going forward a strong US foreign policy may be the most stabilizing course the West can count on to restrain Putin and his intent to rebuild the Russian empire. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay

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