Dead reckoning was once commonly used by sailing ships to determine how far a boat had traveled and at what angle. By taking numerous readings, and using the last known position as a guidepost, a captain could identify his current location. It allowed him to plot a course across great expanses of ocean. When it comes to relations with China, the United States is like a captain who failed to take readings along the journey and now has no idea where he is or what lies ahead.
For more than 30 years Washington assumed China would emerge as a friendly nation and join the international rules-based system that has stabilized the rest of the world for hundreds of years. It is, after all, what other forward-looking, great nations have done over the centuries. The leaders in Washington, however, are not examining the historic signposts or correctly analyzing the trajectory of the bilateral relationship. Today the world faces a belligerent communist giant determined to remake the world in its image. China’s modern-day emperor is its president, Xi Jinping. Not unlike the emperors in the post-Warring States Period (475-221 BC), Xi views China as the center of the world. His policies and long-term goals reflect his intention if only someone had “dead reckoned” China’s hegemonic course.
Washington, and the rest of the democratic world, chose to believe China was three-to-four generations of military technology behind the West. At the State Department after the US normalized relations with Beijing, more than one senior leader assured those who would listen that the communist state “would not catch up to the US in our lifetime.” It turned out that this was not the case. China may have been a grain-importing nation under Deng Xiaoping, but today under President Xi China’s space program is on par with the West. Its submarines, ships, and planes travel the oceans and China is trading aggressively with most nations around the world using stolen and home-grown intellectual property. Washington continues to act “shocked” by China’s technological advances as if there was no indication that a communist state could evolve to produce it. Washington needs to recognize that Xi Jinping is destabilizing the world and the Biden Administration is complicit.
This week Demetri Sevastopulu and Kathrin Hille, writing in the Financial Times, reported that “China tested a nuclear-capable hypersonic missile in August that circled the globe before speeding toward its target, demonstrating an advanced space capability that caught US intelligence by surprise.” Analysts in Washington said the test showed that China “has made outstanding progress” in its hypersonic weapons and is far more advanced that American intelligence assumed was the case. Sevastopulu and Hille quoted several analysts, including one who said “… We have no idea how they did this.” Taylor Fravel, a nuclear weapons policy expert at MIT who is familiar with the Chinese program said that the development of a working hypersonic glide vehicle armed with a nuclear warhead could help China “negate” the US missile defense systems that are designed to destroy incoming ballistic missiles.
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In an interview in the Financial Times this week, US Representative Michael Gallagher said that the Chinese test should “serve as a call to action.” He noted that “Even more disturbing is the fact that American technology has contributed to the PLA’s hypersonic missile program.” This test flight was number 78 for China. At some point in the not-to-distant future China may decide to activate its troops, ships, planes, and nuclear-capable hypersonic missiles. China may have an emperor, but it is Washington who believes in invisible clothing! It is time we stop acting delusional and learn from history. Gaps in understanding create opportunities for learning. This may be the West’s last chance.
DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Friday, she presents key updates on China.
Illustration: Pixabay