China’s Spreading tentacles

China may be considered a land-based power, but it actively destabilizing global oceanic security and countries around the world are concerned. Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr. wrapped up a four-day visit to Washington this week, where he met with the Biden White House, Members of US Congress, and Pentagon officials. With China ramping up threats to the Philippine’s sovereign territory, his US visit marks the first time during the Biden Administration that a foreign leader has received full honors at the Pentagon. The US is sending a message to China, but one that some analysts say Washington cannot or will not back up.

Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin met with Marcos and a large delegation from Manila to discuss the evolving bilateral security relationship. In recent years, China has emerged as an increasingly belligerent power in East Asia. It has claimed Philippine territorial waters as its own, and stopped the country’s ships in open international waters, including recently one of its Coast Guard vessels traveling in the South China Sea. Since the November 2021 Bilateral Strategic Dialogue, the Philippines has sought to tighten its relationship with the US to ward off intensifying Chinese military aggression.

In Sri Lanka this week, the China Merchants Group, a state-run company, announced a $400 million investment to construct a logistics hub in the port at Colombo. It is predicted to be the largest in South Asia and is scheduled for completion in 2025. China will retain 70 percent ownership. Almost six years ago, China negotiated a 99-year lease to develop and manage the country’s Hambantota port. According to a China Merchants Group announcement this week, its total investments in the country are close to $2 billion. China uses all types of power to achieve its goals. The Sri Lanka port projects provide Beijing the ability to monitor the Indian Ocean and heavily traveled commercial shipping lanes.

Still further from its shores, in 2018 China proclaimed itself a “near Arctic state” and increasingly inserted itself into the Arctic region and the race for the riches of its seabed. Beijing gained observer status on the Arctic Council; the governing body composed of the eight Arctic nations. Beijing argues that it has scientific research, freedom of navigation, overflight, fishery, cable-laying and resource development rights in the Arctic high seas. China is collaborating with Russia to establish a global transport corridor using the Northern Sea Route (NSR) to avoid the lengthy trip through the Suze canal. Carving 40% off oceanic transit times would enable China to deliver products to Europe fast and at a lower cost. China labels the route its 21^st Century Maritime Silk Route.

This week in the Antarctic Reuters is reporting there are concerns that China has resumed building its fifth Antarctic base. New satellite imagery developed by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) taken in January shows that there are now support facilities, temporary buildings and a helipad, among other buildings. When finished the station will include a wharf for China’s Xuelong icebreaker ships. A Pentagon report last year suggests that the new infrastructure is designed to support claims Beijing is making for access to oceanic natural resources and espionage.

The southern shores of the Mediterranean today are the site of Chinese great power competition as there is a power vacuum left by America’s disengagement in the region. There are both hard and soft power elements at work as China increases ties to countries on important trade routes, with ports, and shipping facilities. Although China has not replaced the United States, it is increasing its ability to influence events in the southern Mediterranean.

In the America’s, a Chinese firm administers the Panama Canal. It is an important trade hub in the western hemisphere. The Panamanian government awarded the Chinese company Hutchinson-Whampoa concessions to operate the ports at each end and renewed the lease in 2021. Chinese ships consistently rank as the 2^nd or 3^rd largest users of the canal. At the Atlantic end of the canal, China’s Landbridge Consortium has committed $1 billion in investment funds to develop a new container port. There have been delays and some of China’s projects have been scaled back. Dredging for the port project is continuing. Today, about 45% of Panama’s population has some Chinese ancestry.

China’s long-term goal is to remake the global order in its own image and lead that system. It is a complicated, long-term, and expansive plan. Its tentacles extend to every major ocean body and nearby landmasses. Beijing designed a multi-decade plan and is using an aggressive, coordinated approach to diminish the leadership of the United States around the world and reduce Western democratic influence. Great power competition is heating up.
Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.