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CHINA’S PUSH FOR GLOBAL POWER

The Annual Threat Assessment from the office of the Director of National Intelligence has just been released. We provide excerpts from its analysis on China:

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will continue its whole-of-government efforts to spread China’s influence,  undercut that of the United States, drive wedges between Washington and its allies and partners, and foster new  international norms that favor the authoritarian Chinese system. Chinese leaders probably will, however, seek  tactical opportunities to reduce tensions with Washington when such opportunities suit their interests. China will  maintain its major innovation and industrial policies because Chinese leaders see this strategy as necessary  to reduce dependence on foreign technologies, enable military advances, and sustain economic growth and  thus ensure the CCP’s survival. 

∙ Beijing sees increasingly competitive US-China relations as part of an epochal geopolitical shift and  views Washington’s economic measures against Beijing since 2018 as part of a broader US effort to  contain China’s rise. 

∙ China is touting its success containing the COVID-19 pandemic as evidence of the superiority of its  system. 

∙ Beijing is increasingly combining its growing military power with its economic, technological, and  diplomatic clout to preserve the CCP, secure what it views as its territory and regional preeminence,  and pursue international cooperation at Washington’s expense. 

Regional and Global Activities 

China seeks to use coordinated, whole-of-government tools to demonstrate its growing strength and compel regional  neighbors to acquiesce to Beijing’s preferences, including its claims over disputed territory and assertions of  sovereignty over Taiwan. 

∙ China-India border tensions remain high, despite some force pullbacks this year. China’s occupation  since May 2020 of contested border areas is the most serious escalation in decades and led to the first  lethal border clash between the two countries since 1975. As of mid-February, after multiple rounds of  talks, both sides were pulling back forces and equipment from some sites along the disputed border. 

∙ In the South China Sea, Beijing will continue to intimidate rival claimants and will use growing  numbers of air, naval, and maritime law enforcement platforms to signal to Southeast Asian countries  that China has effective control over contested areas. China is similarly pressuring Japan over  contested areas in the East China Sea. 

∙ Beijing will press Taiwan authorities to move toward unification and will condemn what it views as  increased US-Taiwan engagement. We expect that friction will grow as Beijing steps up attempts to  portray Taipei as internationally isolated and dependent on the mainland for economic prosperity, and as China continues to increase military activity around the island. 

∙ China’s increasing cooperation with Russia on areas of complementary interest includes defense and  economic cooperation.

Beijing will continue to promote the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to expand China’s economic, political,  and military presence abroad, while trying to reduce waste and exploitative practices, which have led to  international criticism. China will try to increase its influence using “vaccine diplomacy,” giving countries  favored access to the COVID-19 vaccines it is developing. China also will promote new international norms  for technology and human rights, emphasizing state sovereignty and political stability over individual rights. 

China will remain the top threat to US technological competitiveness as the CCP targets key technology  sectors and proprietary commercial and military technology from US and allied companies and research  institutions associated with defense, energy, finance, and other sectors. Beijing uses a variety of tools, from  public investment to espionage and theft, to advance its technological capabilities. 

Military Capabilities 

China will continue pursuing its goals of becoming a great power, securing what it views as its territory, and  establishing its preeminence in regional affairs by building a world-class military, potentially destabilizing  international norms and relationships. China’s military commitment includes a multiyear agenda of  comprehensive military reform initiatives. 

∙ We expect the PLA to continue pursuing overseas military installations and access agreements to  enhance its ability to project power and protect Chinese interests abroad. 

∙ The PLA Navy and PLA Air Force are the largest in the region and continue to field advanced  long-range platforms that improve China’s ability to project power. The PLA Rocket Force’s  highly accurate short-, medium-, and intermediate-range conventional systems are capable of  holding US and allied bases in the region at risk. 

WMD 

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Beijing will continue the most rapid expansion and platform diversification of its nuclear arsenal in its history,  intending to at least double the size of its nuclear stockpile during the next decade and to field a nuclear triad.  Beijing is not interested in arms control agreements that restrict its modernization plans and will not agree to  substantive negotiations that lock in US or Russian nuclear advantages. 

∙ China is building a larger and increasingly capable nuclear missile force that is more survivable, more  diverse, and on higher alert than in the past, including nuclear missile systems designed to manage  regional escalation and ensure an intercontinental second-strike capability. 

Space 

Beijing is working to match or exceed US capabilities in space to gain the military, economic, and prestige benefits  that Washington has accrued from space leadership. 

∙ We expect a Chinese space station in low Earth orbit (LEO) to be operational between 2022 and 2024.  China also has conducted and plans to conduct additional lunar exploration missions, and it intends to  establish a robotic research station on the Moon and later an intermittently crewed lunar base.

∙ The PLA will continue to integrate space services—such as satellite reconnaissance and  positioning, navigation, and timing (PNT)—and satellite communications into its weapons and  command-and-control systems to erode the US military’s information advantage. 

Counterspace operations will be integral to potential military campaigns by the PLA, and China has counterspace weapons capabilities intended to target US and allied satellites. 

∙ Beijing continues to train its military space elements and field new destructive and nondestructive  ground- and space-based antisatellite (ASAT) weapons. 

∙ China has already fielded ground-based ASAT missiles intended to destroy satellites in LEO and  ground-based ASAT lasers probably intended to blind or damage sensitive space-based optical sensors  on LEO satellites. 

Cyber 

We assess that China presents a prolific and effective cyber-espionage threat, possesses substantial cyber-attack  capabilities, and presents a growing influence threat. China’s cyber pursuits and proliferation of related  technologies increase the threats of cyber attacks against the US homeland, suppression of US web content that  Beijing views as threatening to its internal ideological control, and the expansion of technology-driven  authoritarianism around the world. 

∙ We continue to assess that China can launch cyber attacks that, at a minimum, can cause localized,  temporary disruptions to critical infrastructure within the United States. 

∙ China leads the world in applying surveillance systems and censorship to monitor its population and  repress dissent, particularly among ethnic minorities, such as the Uyghurs. Beijing conducts cyber  intrusions that affect US and non-US citizens beyond its borders—such as hacking journalists, stealing  personal information, or attacking tools that allow free speech online—as part of its efforts to surveil  perceived threats to CCP power and tailor influence efforts. Beijing is also using its assistance to global  efforts to combat COVID-19 to export its surveillance tools and technologies. 

∙ China’s cyber-espionage operations have included compromising telecommunications firms, providers  of managed services and broadly used software, and other targets potentially rich in follow-on  opportunities for intelligence collection, attack, or influence operations. 

Intelligence, Influence Operations, and Elections Influence and Interference 

China will continue expanding its global intelligence footprint to better support its growing political,  economic, and security interests around the world, increasingly challenging the United States’ alliances and  partnerships. Across East Asia and the western Pacific, which Beijing views as its natural sphere of  influence, China is attempting to exploit doubts about the US commitment to the region, undermine  Taiwan’s democracy, and extend Beijing’s influence. 

∙ Beijing has been intensifying efforts to shape the political environment in the United States to promote  its policy preferences, mold public discourse, pressure political figures whom Beijing believes oppose its  interests, and muffle criticism of China on such issues as religious freedom and the suppression of  democracy in Hong Kong.

Photo: China’s amphibious armored naval vessels (China Defence Ministry)