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China’s Pearl Harbor Attack

Expect a Pearl Harbor style, cyber-attack by China warns the front cover of the US Army’s latest edition of Cyber Defense Review. Other cybersecurity professionals are urging American officials to forget the Pearl Harbor image and not plan for a single, major attack on US systems, but focus on and prepare for additional piecemeal hacks that could create extensive damage over an extended period of time. While a catastrophic event, like the recent shutdown of the Colonial pipeline in Florida grabs everyone’s attention, Nicolas Rivero, writing in Quartz, says what we should be doing instead is to prepare to defend against  foreign intelligence operations from adversarial nations like China that are consistently targeting sensitive US data. In some attacks, China has collected passwords and other records to gain access to sensitive information but then waited years to actually retrieve the data. In others, it appears the attacks are bold, broad, and fast. With estimates of up to 100,000 trained Chinese hackers, the US needs to know what to expect from China and how to defend against the increasing cyber threat. It is becoming a cyber powerhouse 网络强国 (wǎngluò qiángguó) that the West can no longer ignore.

The FBI and US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) recently released a statement exposing a spearfishing campaign by Chinese state-sponsored hackers that started in 2011 and targeted oil and natural gas pipeline companies in the United States. The examples are too numerous to list. In June Chinese actors targeted organizations, including Verizon and the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California employing a platform used by numerous government agencies and companies for secure remote access to their networks, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). The cyber-attacks are intensifying and expanding with US Government sites getting hit daily. China is not only going after the US. In May a Chinese hacking group compromised a Russian defense contractor involved in designing nuclear submarines for the Russian navy. The China threat to the world is real. It is imminent. We need to recognize that cyber warfare is not going away.

China also is using its military hackers to enhance its political influence campaigns abroad. In March one of its hacker groups invaded Facebook to send malicious links to Uyghur activists, journalists, and dissidents located abroad. That same month, CSIS reports that both Russian and Chinese intelligence services had targeted the European Medicines Agency in 2020 in unrelated campaigns, stealing documents relating to COVID-19 vaccines and medicines. For more than a dozen years the hackers assigned to Chinese PLA Unit 61398 have been conducting cyber warfare out of a 12-story building in Pudong, Shanghai. In 2013 the Pentagon began documenting these Chinese intrusions. They were focused on collecting intelligence on US diplomatic, economic, and defense related facilities and programs, according to the Pentagon’s annual report. 

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The breadth of Chinese cyber warfare operations today is overwhelming. At a time when the US is cutting back on defense spending, China officially is ramping up its defense spending by more than 6.8% again this year. Estimates by some  American defense analysts argue that this number effectively may be higher than 10% given the differences in how China’s defense programs are funded. Chinese cyber-attacks on US nuclear command, control, and communications (NC3) systems have become a potential source of conflict escalation as tensions rise between the two countries. According to a new a new International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) report the US still has the lead, but Chinese capabilities are quickly closing that gap and within the next decade given China’s “growing industrial base in digital technology, it is the state best placed to join the US in the first tier” surpassing Australia, Canada, France, Israel and the UK that are considered to be second tier, according to the IISS report. This summer an NSA, CISA and FBI report stated that “Chinese state-sponsored cyber actors use a full array of tactics and techniques to exploit computer networks of interest worldwide and to acquire sensitive intellectual property, economic, political, and military information.” The question now is when and how will the US counter this existential Chinese threat to our national security.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Friday, she presents key updates on China.