The New York Analysis of Policy & Government continues its exploration of the 2014 report of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission. http://www.uscc.gov/
“During 2014, China’s military modernization continued at a fast pace, creating additional challenges for the United States and its allies, and China’s neighbors. Most notably, China conducted its first test of a new hypersonic missile vehicle, which could enable China to conduct kinetic strikes anywhere in the world within minutes to hours, and performed its second flight test of a new road-mobile intercontinental missile that will be able to strike the entire continental United States and could carry up to 10 independently maneuverable warheads.
“Meanwhile, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) increased its inventory of modern submarines, surface ships, and combat aircraft while upgrading its legacy platforms with new weapon systems.
“In the maritime domain, the PLA Navy continued its transformation from a coastal force into a technologically advanced navy capable of projecting power throughout the Asia Pacific. Since the Commission’s 2013 Annual Report, the PLA Navy has expanded its presence in the East and South China Seas and for the first time begun combat patrols in the Indian Ocean. Additionally, China’s first aircraft carrier in January conducted its first long-distance training deployment.
“The nature of the deployment suggests China is experimenting with multiple types of carrier formations, including those resembling U.S. combined expeditionary groups.
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“China’s growing confidence in its military capabilities has emboldened Beijing to aggressively advance its territorial ambitions. Since approximately 2009, China has increasingly used coercive military and economic measures to assert control over its territorial claims in the East and South China Seas. Since late 2013, however, China has been more willing to advance its sovereignty claims without seeking to justify its actions as responses to perceived provocations by rival claimants. The three most significant manifestations of this new, even more assertive turn are China’s establishment of an Air Defense Identification Zone in the East China Sea; China’s relocation of an oil rig to waters disputed by Vietnam in the South China Sea; and China’s ongoing attempts to prevent the Philippines from resupplying its military outpost at Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea…
“Perhaps of most concern is Beijing’s apparent willingness to provoke incidents at sea and in the air that could lead to a major conflict as China’s maritime and air forces expand their operations beyond China’s immediate periphery. China already has initiated dangerous encounters at sea on several occasions. In December 2013, a U.S. Navy ship was forced to maneuver to avoid a collision with a PLA Navy ship that had intentionally stopped in front of it. Both ships were operating in international waters. Later in 2014, a China Coast Guard ship rammed Vietnamese government ships following China’s placement of a state-owned deep-sea drilling platform inside Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone, and a Chinese fighter flew within 30 feet of a U.S. Navy reconnaissance aircraft international airspace.
“This pattern of unilateral Chinese actions in sensitive and disputed areas is raising tensions in the Asia Pacific and alienating many of its neighbors. China’s deepening economic, diplomatic, and military influence on its geographic periphery has led its neighboring countries to reconsider their security strategies and relationships, particularly those involving the United States. As the United States seeks to reaffirm its alliances and boost its security links with associates in East Asia and Oceania, it must contend with China’s competing vision of a China-led regional security architecture.
“This uncertain environment is further complicated by China’s support for North Korea, which continues to pose the most serious threat to East Asia security.”