China’s Hong Kong Takeover

The first arrests under the new National Security Law on Hong Kong commenced less than ten hours after it was signed by Chinese President Xi Jinping. The police immediately used pepper spray. They lobbed tear gas at peaceful protesters and they aimed water cannons at journalists covering the protests in Hong Kong. Several reporters were injured. The new draconian law, which curtails freedom of speech and assembly among other things, caught a 15-year old girl in its net simply for waving a flag calling for Hong Kong’s independence. It was only 90 minutes after the law was signed that she lost her right to free speech. That high school student is just one of the countless young people who could face life imprisonment. Many of the other 370 plus arrested on the first day also face horrific punishments. Beijing effectively is denuding Hong Kong of any opposition forces to its harsh rule without concern about what its citizens or other nation-states think.

The faces of the arrested are young, hopeful, and filled with a determination to stand up to repression by the Chinese Communist Party leadership in Beijing. One student dared to wear a simple white tee shirt embossed with the words “The FUTURE is so unpredictable.” She was detained like the hundreds of others who tried to run from police. Carrie Lam, nominal head of Hong Kong, held a press conference just 14 hours after the new law went into force. She stood boldly before the media and declared that the law “has perfected” the “one country, two systems” concept, and announced that a national security department already had been established inside the Hong Kong Police Department. This was well-planned in advance and is part of a longer-term strategy by Beijing. Is Taiwan next? Will the US step into the fray? No one knows the answer.

The new security law criminalizes individuals for acts it loosely labels as terrorism, collusion with foreigners, subversion, or secession. But it doesn’t stop there. The law decrees that any person, from any country, who commits an offense under the act can be imprisoned. A non-citizen outside China still is subject to it, according to the State Council in Beijing. Using this standard a foreign traveler transiting an international airport in Hong Kong, on his way to another country, could be taken prisoner and subjected to a life sentence for negative comments on his Twitter account concerning Hong Kong.

The excuse used by Beijing is that Hong Kong needs increased “public safety.” Article 48 of the law declares that Beijing can collect intelligence, coordinate with local authorities, and handle national security cases. It effectively ends Hong Kong’s autonomy. Already residents of Hong Kong are deactivating their social media accounts and quietly retreating. Organizations are removing their anti-government signs. Zero tolerance for dissent appears to be within Xi Jinping’s grasp.

Great Britain offered unlimited help to those with a British National (overseas) passport. The UK Foreign Secretary, Dominic Raab, told Parliament this week that the country is promising a path to citizenship for all of the “BN” passport holders to resettle in Great Britain. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson declared the law a “clear and serious” breach of rights. Taiwan opened an office to help those fleeing Hong Kong, too. US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo issued a statement calling it a “sad day for Hong Kong, and for freedom-loving people across China.” Over two dozen nation-states already have signed a document decrying the legislation and labeling it “interference” by Beijing.

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Zhang Xiaoming, deputy chief of Beijing’s State Council Office on Hong Kong and Macau Affairs, wore a bright red tie during his meeting with the press last Wednesday. No one knows better how to govern Hong Kong than the central government, he said. According to Zhang, Beijing is taking a hard line approach and that it’s a “turning point.” He deemed the law, which was not released for consultation prior to enactment, a case of “special circumstance.” In a dramatic statement before the media he declared that “Its power overrides the autonomy of the Hong Kong SAR…[and] this is reasonable and legitimate.”

In response to the measure Secretary Pompeo announced the United States will cease all exports of defense equipment and dual-use technology to Hong Kong. Washington will no longer offer Hong Kong special treatment when compared to the mainland. In Beijing, as one CCP official quipped, it is a very sharp sword hanging over a minority of people. This is a dark period for the people of Hong Kong. Hopefully, it at least serves as an enlightening one for those who believed the misinformation, disinformation, and propaganda put out by the Chinese Communist Party.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Friday, she presents key updates on China.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.