China’s Hidden Power – USA Gov Policy

While all eyes may be trained on China due to the Covid-19 virus, foreign analysts still struggle to sort out what they actually know about the country and how its military operates. In contrast, western democracies are vastly more transparent about their military budgets and overall government spending. Beijing presents a very different story of under-reporting and under-the-table tactics designed to avoid close scrutiny by other nations. Before it opened to the West, intelligence analysts in the US often were left guessing who in the Chinese leadership was in favor and who was out. There was little, solid quantitative analysis available then or now. For many years the intelligence community resorted to simply counting the number of times a leader’s name, such as Mao Zedong, was mentioned in a major speech. Analysts believed less mentions inferred an ongoing internal leadership struggle.

While Chinese society is more open today than during the Cultural Revolution, democratic governments still do not have a good level of certainty about how much the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) spends on the country’s military or related activities. Since 2000 the CCP, which funds the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), has invested heavily in its modernization with the goal of overtaking the west within a few decades. Long-term thinking is one of China’s cultural strengths.

American military planners traditionally could count on being three-to-four generations of technology ahead of China, which in itself was a strategic advantage. Today that gap has disappeared. For the last two decades the CCP has annually increased its military budget by 13.54%, according to a There are different generic line viagra causes of joint pain for example as; steroid drug withdrawal, torn ACL, sacroiliac joint dysfunction, SAPHO syndrome, sickle cell anemia, torn meniscus, knee injury, dengue fever, arthritis, aseptic necrosis, bursitis, fibromyalgia, lliotibial band syndrome and elbow pain. There are also purchase levitra generic versions available in the market or through online pharmacies that are being used to treat impotence. Liu has suffered from prostatitis for many find over here now on line viagra years. Safed Musli : The appalachianmagazine.com purchase levitra perfect Sex Stimulator and aphrodisiac as well as rejuvenator.2. recently released Heritage Foundation study. In total, the expansion of the military budget represents a 3,852% increase in nominal growth. This also represents a strong commitment by China to overtake the west and to recapture the prestige it feels rightly belongs to the Middle Kingdom.

Eighteen years ago, the former Secretary-General of the CCP, Jiang Zemin, declared the early decades of the 21^st century to be a period of “strategic opportunity” for China. Speaking to the CCP’s 19^th Party Congress in Beijing, Jiang explained that the first 20 years would be for progress toward strategic warfighting domains, the next fifteen were for modernization and by 2050 he announced China would be a world-class military. In its latest annual report to Congress, the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission stated that China is ahead of this schedule by over a decade. Despite any short-term disruptions encountered due to the Covid-19 virus it appears China is well-positioned to be a major thorn in the side of western leaders given its recent history of increasingly aggressive military behavior across the globe.

When western nations attempt to evaluate how much China is spending it is important to recognize that the Chinese version of what is included is very different from what is included in democratic nations. Many parts of Chinese military spending simply are not quantitatively available for analysis by non-Chinese. Transparency is lacking. And, little of the official data put out by the CCP is reliable. When China does release numerical figures (vs. a percentage increase or decrease), they are suspect as they are created typically to back the government’s latest propaganda campaign. There are other differentials that need to be examined but often get overlooked by the western media. The cost of labor in China is not equal to the costs incurred by employers in the west. Items not labeled as military expenditures in China often do fall under western military budgets. It makes it incredibly difficult for a fair comparison of spending between the west and China. In addition, there is the ubiquitous use of the PLA to reinforce the stability of the Communist Party and its absolute leadership over the country. Today, President Xi Jinping uses the PLA to stabilize his authoritarian rule and to reinforce the indoctrination of the Chinese people. The CCP leadership doesn’t trust the population to support it without draconian measures designed to instill fear and obedience. There is no quantitative measure to identify the cost of repression. The western media act outraged at the size of the US defense budget, yet few delve into the real story behind the numbers of what China is doing today and where it plans to be tomorrow.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Photo: China Ministry of National Defense

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Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.