China’s Dangerous Caribbean Presence

China’s COVID-19 has brought extraordinary danger to the United States, and 2021 may see a different brand of peril.

American Military News reports that “China has been expanding its ties with a number of countries in the Caribbean, increasing its influence right at America’s doorstep.”

Similarly, the New York Times notes that Beijing has increased its burden-laden “loans” to Caribbean nations as part of its aggressive “Belt and Road” campaign. The Times found that the Chinese government invested over $6 billion over 15 years to fund infrastructure projects throughout the Caribbean. Jamaica is a focal point, receiving about $5.1 billion. Since 2005, China has provided over $100 billion in credit to the region. Last year, China announced it would give nearly $35 billion in loans to the region in coming years. And, this year, China promised its investment in the region would hit $250 billion over the next 10 years.

The Congressional Research Service has found that “As the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has increased its engagement with Latin America and the Caribbean over nearly 20 years, U.S. policymakers have raised questions regarding potential implications for U.S. interests in the region. China’s engagement with the region has grown significantly since 2001, particularly in terms of diplomatic and economic ties. This growth reflects China’s global ‘soft power’ efforts and ‘influence operations’ worldwide. A succession of Chinese leaders and other officials have visited the region to court governments. In turn, regional leaders and officials have been frequent visitors to China. The PRC has signed a variety of bilateral partnership agreements with several countries in the region, including ‘strategic partnerships’ with Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela.”

In 2015, China hosted the first-ever China- Community of Latin American and Caribbean States [CELAC] summit in Beijing for Latin American and Caribbean nations. A U.S. Congressional report noted that the conference specifically excluded the U.S. and Canada. Since 2005, China has provided over $100 billion in credit to the region. Last year, China announced it would give nearly $35 billion in loans to the region in coming years. China promised its investment in the region would hit $250 billion over the next 10 years.

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There is a lot more than mere economics going on. Having access to a region right on the U.S. doorstep is a vastly strategic advantage for China. In addition to direct military purposes, buying the loyalty of comparatively small nations is a goal for Beijing as it seeks to gain friends at the United Nations in its campaign to isolate Taiwan.

A Geopolitical Intelligence Services Report reveals that there are Chinese-built container and cruise ship ports on both the Pacific and Atlantic sides of the country.

At a U.S. Congressional Foreign Affairs hearing, it was revealed that Chinese security ties to the region continue to deepen, with the Chinese arms sales to Bolivia, Venezuela, Ecuador, and Argentina. Reportedly, China has even expanded its arms sales beyond traditional nation-states through providing military-caliber weapons to non-state actors such as the FARC terrorist organization in Colombia and drug trafficking organizations in Mexico. This activity has only served to increase the number of weapons in the hands of paramilitary forces and transnational criminal networks. “It should be of grave concern to all Americans that the Chinese maintain a military presence in Cuba, specifically Lourdes, Bejucal, and Santiago de Cuba, all of which were former Soviet-era monitoring facilities,” it was emphasized.

In 2019 an official Chinese news outlet stated that The Chinese military stands ready to deepen relations with the militaries of the Caribbean countries and Pacific island countries… to strengthen exchanges and cooperation. Guyana was specifically mentioned as seeking to strengthen ties with Beijing’s military.

Photo: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.