China’s Dangerous Caribbean Presence

China’s COVID-19 has brought extraordinary danger to the United States, and 2021 may see a different brand of peril.

American Military News reports that “China has been expanding its ties with a number of countries in the Caribbean, increasing its influence right at America’s doorstep.”

Similarly, the New York Times notes that Beijing has increased its burden-laden “loans” to Caribbean nations as part of its aggressive “Belt and Road” campaign. The Times found that the Chinese government invested over $6 billion over 15 years to fund infrastructure projects throughout the Caribbean. Jamaica is a focal point, receiving about $5.1 billion. Since 2005, China has provided over $100 billion in credit to the region. Last year, China announced it would give nearly $35 billion in loans to the region in coming years. And, this year, China promised its investment in the region would hit $250 billion over the next 10 years.

The Congressional Research Service has found that “As the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has increased its engagement with Latin America and the Caribbean over nearly 20 years, U.S. policymakers have raised questions regarding potential implications for U.S. interests in the region. China’s engagement with the region has grown significantly since 2001, particularly in terms of diplomatic and economic ties. This growth reflects China’s global ‘soft power’ efforts and ‘influence operations’ worldwide. A succession of Chinese leaders and other officials have visited the region to court governments. In turn, regional leaders and officials have been frequent visitors to China. The PRC has signed a variety of bilateral partnership agreements with several countries in the region, including ‘strategic partnerships’ with Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela.”

In 2015, China hosted the first-ever China- Community of Latin American and Caribbean States [CELAC] summit in Beijing for Latin American and Caribbean nations. A U.S. Congressional report noted that the conference specifically excluded the U.S. and Canada. Since 2005, China has provided over $100 billion in credit to the region. Last year, China announced it would give nearly $35 billion in loans to the region in coming years. China promised its investment in the region would hit $250 billion over the next 10 years.

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There is a lot more than mere economics going on. Having access to a region right on the U.S. doorstep is a vastly strategic advantage for China. In addition to direct military purposes, buying the loyalty of comparatively small nations is a goal for Beijing as it seeks to gain friends at the United Nations in its campaign to isolate Taiwan.

A Geopolitical Intelligence Services Report reveals that there are Chinese-built container and cruise ship ports on both the Pacific and Atlantic sides of the country.

At a U.S. Congressional Foreign Affairs hearing, it was revealed that Chinese security ties to the region continue to deepen, with the Chinese arms sales to Bolivia, Venezuela, Ecuador, and Argentina. Reportedly, China has even expanded its arms sales beyond traditional nation-states through providing military-caliber weapons to non-state actors such as the FARC terrorist organization in Colombia and drug trafficking organizations in Mexico. This activity has only served to increase the number of weapons in the hands of paramilitary forces and transnational criminal networks. “It should be of grave concern to all Americans that the Chinese maintain a military presence in Cuba, specifically Lourdes, Bejucal, and Santiago de Cuba, all of which were former Soviet-era monitoring facilities,” it was emphasized.

In 2019 an official Chinese news outlet stated that The Chinese military stands ready to deepen relations with the militaries of the Caribbean countries and Pacific island countries… to strengthen exchanges and cooperation. Guyana was specifically mentioned as seeking to strengthen ties with Beijing’s military.

Photo: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Putin’s Saber Rattling

Earlier this week, President Biden reversed his 2022 decision, authorizing the provision of antipersonnel land mines to the Ukrainian government. It follows an earlier Administration authorization to allow the use of an advanced American missile system capable of striking as deep as 100 miles inside Russian territory. The US election season may be ending, but both Russia and the West show no indication of stepping down the conflict. Russian propaganda continues to swell as the Kremlin increases its threats to use nuclear weapons against the West. Last week Andrey Sushentsov, program director of the pro-Kremlin think tank Valdai Discussion Club (VDC), published an article on growing nuclear tensions in the region. Official Russian language in the last few years has been threatening. Since the US election, rhetoric like that in the Sushentsov article, has approached the level of nuclear blackmail. The VDC article’s main theme centers on Russia’s intent to directly confront the West militarily if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) becomes involved in Russia’s conflict with Ukraine. “On the one hand, these threats are intended to frighten the West, but on the other, Russian propagandists themselves are starting to believe in the inevitability of escalation,” according to Ksenia Kirillova of the Jamestown Foundation. On November 11, Sushentsov wrote that “The conflict will reach a completely new level, with unpredictable consequences for Europe and the entire world.” Kirillova points out that Putin’s distorted image of the world is divorced from reality and is causing the Kremlin to issue demands that are impossible to fulfill. Financial and other Russian resources needed to support Putin’s war are growing scarcer at the same time. This week the Kremlin announced a reduction of payments to its soldiers. Recently North Korea acknowledged it was sending soldiers to fight in Ukraine as Putin is running out of bodies to use as cannon fire. The war is not going well for Russia. One question floating around the Washington intelligence community is whether Putin will act out of desperation before President-elect Trump assumes office. In recent months the Russian propaganda machine is spewing out materials from fairly reputable analytical platforms inside the country. Kirillova says that “Kremlin ‘experts’ do not conceal that such threats are only intended to break the West psychologically, as they themselves are not prepared for full-scale nuclear war.” Despite Russia’s lack of preparation for an all-out war with the West, the expanding nuclear rhetoric carries with it an increase in the threat of a full-scale war in multiple theaters of operation. In June 2023 a founder of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Sergey Karaganov, called for “delivering a pre-emptive strike of retaliation” on Poland to force the West to surrender. In the previous month, Dmitry Suslov, a direct of research programs at the policy center proposed organizing “a demonstration nuclear explosion” aimed at intimidating the West. In September, President Putin announced a reappraisal of Russian nuclear doctrine after speaking earlier in the year at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum and jokingly calling Suslov a “scary person.” Pavel Baev, writing in the European Daily Monitor, says “Putin intends his announcement to mark an escalation of nuclear brinkmanship and influence the proceedings of future Ukrainian peace efforts.” Putin is expanding the list of environmental conditions that are acceptable for using a nuclear weapon and incorporating it into Russian military doctrine. Baev adds that “The ups and downs of Russian brinkmanship are disconnected from the kinetic battles of the war, correlating instead with Ukrainian peace offensives, such as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s first peace summit in Bürgenstock, Switzerland.” Despite the increase in vitriolic language, in a You Tube video published a week before the US presidential election, Karaganov openly assured the West the primary goal of the escalation is to break the American spirit and that of the West, not outright nuclear war. By Election Day in the US, with political prognosticators predicting a win for former president Trump, Karaganov changed his tune and called for an increased role in nuclear deterrence. Kirillova points out that Western concessions to Russia are unlikely to reduce the risk of nuclear escalation. The distorted reality inside the Kremlin continues to push that President-elect Trump is an adherent of “world government,” that Ukraine will create a nuclear weapon, and Russia must prepare for a nuclear conflagration to achieve its ambitions for a new world order. President-elect Trump has indicated he will not agree to concessions that destabilize Europe, the Middle East or other regions. Going forward a strong US foreign policy may be the most stabilizing course the West can count on to restrain Putin and his intent to rebuild the Russian empire. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay

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