China’s Aircraft Carriers

Aircraft carriers matter. Modern aircraft carriers matter more.

Another year has passed in China’s decades-long journey toward global maritime domination. It surpassed the US Naval fleet in size in 2019 and continued to expand its lead in 2020. From China’s perspective it is moving closer to achieving its rightful place by imposing its world view on other nations and peoples. One area of great concern is the development of its PLAN (People’s Liberation Army Navy). Three decades ago, the Chinese Navy did not possess over-the-horizon radar, which is needed to sail outside its coastal “green” waters.

Today, China possesses a blue water navy that is expanding at a fast pace with extensive qualitative improvements, although still lagging well behind the United States in capabilities. At current production rates China will have more than 330 warships within a few years, with possibly 430 surface ships and 100 submarines by 2030. Sanya, China’s newest naval base on Hainan Island is complete with a covered port for basing and maintaining submarines. It sits at the edge of the South China Sea near contested waters belonging to Vietnam, Thailand, and the Philippines. In 2020 China conducted live-fire, naval anti-ship drills there using its Harbin Z-9 helicopters stationed against simulated targets.

It was only a year ago that China’s first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, was commissioned officially after finishing 18 months of sea trials. The ship’s structure was built in Russia and can launch 24 Shenyang J-15 multirole fighter aircraft. It represents a significant advance in naval warfare capabilities for China. Although smaller and less capable than the USS-Nimitz-class, the Liaoning is fast and has a modernized command center. The Shandong, China’s second aircraft carrier, was reverse engineered from the Liaoning. It is China’s first domestically built carrier. The Liaoning finished its third sea trial on December 21, 2020. US military analysts expect it to be fully operational by August 2024.

The communist giant is continuing the expansion and upgrading of its navy in 2020 with construction of a third aircraft carrier. Although not yet finished it is expected to feature a new generation of catapult launching system that will be able to launch more aircraft with heavier weapons than China’s two existing carriers based which are based on Cold War-era Soviet designs. China is not only building ships, it is joining actively with Russia to conduct maritime exercises.

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China has deployed UUV’s (unmanned underwater vehicle’s) capable to aiding subs hiding in waters throughout the South China Sea and Indian Ocean. Its long-range UUV Sea Wing gliders can operate for months on end and have traveled deep in waters in the Indian Ocean, among other regions. Information from the UUV’s could be used to help Chinese naval vessels traverse the region or aid in blocking commercial traffic transporting products across the globe. The PLAN runs about four to five surface ships concurrently in the IOR (Indian Ocean Region) mapping out the best submarine routes.

In Asian waters Beijing expanded and fortified its naval bases on artificially-built islands in contested and strategically important areas of the South China Sea. It now has seven artificial islands which cover about 3,200 acres of coral reefs in the disputed Spratly archipelago. It is using these to support aircraft carrier and carrier-launched fighter planes.

China has intensified its demonstration of naval power throughout the South China Sea, IOR, and beyond in what appears to be a new maritime era. There is no slowdown in sight. Beijing’s total defense budget currently exceeds the combined totals of Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and Vietnam. In comparison to the United States China has little experience in operating integrated carrier battle groups, but that is only a matter of time before it is on par with the US and other major naval powers, according the naval analysts.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Friday, she presents key updates on China.

Photo: A jet takes off from the deck of the CNS Liaoning. (China Defence Ministry)

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.