Japan’s Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere active during WWII is a term that remains common mostly among academicians today. It may be time in 2022 to resurrect and reexamine the geopolitical history surrounding it as the rise of China today represents a similar potential threat to the region and eventually the rest of the world. China is using its soft and hard power to achieve political, military, and economic dominance throughout East Asia. Its foreign policy moves are growing more worrisome to democratic nations around the South China Sea. Beijing’s military actions also are an increasing threat to global commerce. Cracks are beginning to appear in China’s meteoric rise as its domestic economy is beginning to falter and the pandemic is causing Beijing political and economic complications at home and abroad. The free world cannot count on it to be enough to stop China from regrouping and moving forward with its hegemonic plans.
What China does in East Asia impacts the global economy. Over 70% of the world’s maritime trade passes through the Straits of Malacca. It is a 580 mile long, narrow, and shallow stretch of water between the Malay Peninsula and the Indonesian island of Sumatra. China’s increasing influence in the area combined with its move farther away from the United States is challenging the Biden Administration’s foreign policy team as it attempts to curb Chinese influence in the area.
In the recent $770 billion Defense bill signed by President Biden, several small programs in the legislation aimed to hold China accountable for its behavior. Unfortunately, they are being eaten up by inflation and will have little impact. That has not stopped Beijing from complaining loudly about the defense bill and making demands of Washington. This week Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Zhao Lijian boldly stated that Beijing “…firmly oppose[s] the US slipping in negative content concerning China or making an issue out of China for political manipulation.”
At the same time, however, American diplomats are seeing signs that China’s Ambassador in Washington is taking a slightly more conciliatory tone. Last week in a press briefing the Ambassador pointed out that the fate of China and the United States are “intertwined.” China, he said, has “learned lessons” from the fall of the USSR and “won’t make the same mistakes.” Which one is the real China? The answer lies in understanding China’s modus operandi.
China pushes hard on every aspect of its military and foreign policy until other states push back harder. As long as Xi Jinping designs his policy to remain below a threshold requiring a military response from China’s adversaries, he will continue moving forward with his plans. Over the last few years China has reclaimed a number of South and East China Sea shoals, some originally no more than a few rocks above water and visible only at high tide. By dredging the surrounding sea bottom China created islands outside of its legal territory. Five years ago, the UN delivered a unanimous and legally binding decision firmly rejecting unlawful, expansive South China Sea maritime claims as being inconsistent with international law. When the world objected China simply ignored the world claiming it was “interference in its domestic affairs.” No one stopped China. It kept building islands and later broke its promise not to arm them. Today these artificial islands host Chinese ports handling large military vessels and military-grade airfields capable of landing fighter jets. Although infringing on foreign territory, China counted on a lack of political willpower by its East Asian neighbors and Washington. This is how China operates.
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President Xi Jinping designed an aggressive foreign policy that is not going to stop due a pandemic or any domestic dislocations in the economy. The world can expect to see similar military provocations in the future. In December, when Secretary of State Antony Blinken traveled to Jakarta, Indonesia for meetings with ASEAN leaders he said the US is “determined to ensure freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, where Beijing’s aggressive actions… threaten the movement of more than $3 trillion worth of commerce every year. When commerce can’t traverse open seas, that means that farmers are blocked from shipping their produce; factories can’t ship their microchips; hospitals are blocked from getting lifesaving medicines… We and other countries, including South China Sea claimants, will continue to push back on such behavior.” The world cannot afford to be fooled into submission when China takes one step back. Too much is at stake. China is moving on a number of fronts. Many are outside of East Asia. When Xi Jinping gets push back on one he moves forward in another.
DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.
Illustration: Pixabay