China vs. Hong Kong Press – USA Gov Policy

As a child growing up in the 60’s, my mom’s mantra was “an apple a day.…” you know the rest. Eating one freed me from every having to ingest that awful cherry-tasting medicine. So, of course, I happily crunched on red, green and every color in between, right off the tree in my back yard. In April 1976 Apple Computer was founded and it yielded a new meaning to the word “apple.” Nine years later Apple Daily Newspaper was founded in Hong Kong.

Unlike the fruit and computer, I had not heard about the publication until recently and knew few details until a police raid on its headquarters last August. It was, for a while, one of the best-selling newspapers in Hong Kong. This week on Wednesday, July 23, 2021, residents of Hong Kong formed block-long lines to buy its final edition while others demonstrated outside the paper’s office in support of the publication.

What is so important about this smaller paper is that Apply Daily favored Hong Kong pan-democracy and was openly critical of the Chinese government. Its viewpoint in the end served as the death knell for the publication. With its assets frozen and the arrests of Apple Daily’s senior staff the paper was forced to announce its closure. Along with 800 staffers losing their jobs, Hong Kong lost the final thread of its freedom of speech.

The remaining Hong Kong newspapers now all run the same government-approved front page for fear that the horrific national security law could end up imprisoning them, too, as it has Jimmy Lai, Apple Daily’s founder. One of the paper’s opinion writers also was arrested this week ensuring that the former staffers are intimidated into silence. Some are fleeing Hong Kong unable to find work and fearful of retribution. Those who stay put in Hong Kong can be counted on to self-censor, according to officials. So dies the last flame of free press for Hong Kong’s 7.5 million residents.

A hidden concern few dare whisper is what comes next. Is it entertainment? What about academia? With the effective end of the “One Country, Two Systems” until 2047 agreement, little is left of what was once an economic jewel. But there is more… Hong Kong is the canary in the coalmine.” Soon China may go after Taiwan. Earlier this month the incoming and outgoing heads of the US Indo-Pacific Command warned Congress that China could attack Taiwan by 2027 or sooner. Changes in the political-military environment in East Asia are coming faster than expected. It could emerge as a “Donbas”[Ukraine] style fight or an outright invasion.

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The question around Washington is not if, but when it will occur. China’s “grey zone” attacks on Taiwan are intensifying. There appears to be no consensus inside the Biden Administration about the US response to an attack on the island, with some senior officials stating that it is “not important” to US national security. Although an outright invasion is not deemed likely in the near future, it demands America’s attention. As China pushes out past its self-declared, 9-dash line into the far reaches of the South China Sea, it time to carefully examine the Chinese leadership’s short- and long-term policy goals.

The West needs to recognize that Chinese President-for-Life Xi Jinping (習近平) is a firm advocate of unification. He views Taiwan as a pressing issue at the front of his political agenda and one where force may need to be employed to achieve China’s goal. Certainly, Beijing’s lack of interest in reaching out to the people in Taiwan is an indicator of Xi’s attitude. Second, is the CCP’s willingness to exert its military influence in the area around Taiwan. Incursions into Taiwanese waters and airspace occur on an almost daily basis in recent months. If Xi’s military commanders are telling him the use of China’s modern military force is now a viable option, he may be pushed into bringing the long-standing issue to conclusion sooner than expected. Is this a one-two punch condemning Taiwan to conquest? With Hong Kong failing fast, Taiwan appears to be the next piece to be acquired in China’s global chess game unless the US and other freedom-loving nations step up to help.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Friday, she presents key updates on China.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.