China Vastly Growing Nuclear Threat

Several hundred intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) silos are buried at three sites in the sands of China’s western deserts near Yumen, Hami, and Ordos. Beijing touts additional road mobile intercontinental missile launchers it says are capable of carrying advanced weapons of great destructive power and able to reach the continental US. Recently Beijing launched its third aircraft carrier. Add to that list Beijing’s advancements in ground-based, large-phased array radars, and space-based assets capable of detecting ballistic-missile launches, among other modern weapons. Together they represents a concerted effort by China to move to a Launch-on-Warning posture. According to Admiral Charles Richard, Commander of the US Strategic Command, China’s self-defense claims are inconsistent with the qualitative and quantitative programs under way.

This Wednesday marks the ceremonial announcement by China of a new emerging offensive threat to SE Asia. It comes from the sea as the PLAN is breaking ground on new facilities at the northern end of Ream Naval Base in Sihanoukville, Cambodia. It is located on a peninsula southeast of the provincial capital of Krong Preah Sihanouk and will offer China expanded access to the Gulf of Thailand and the southern region of the South China Sea. US naval experts predicted for years that Xi Jinping would establish an overseas naval outpost in the region. Washington is concerned, in part, because of the extraordinary efforts China made to conceal its plans prior to this week’s announcement. Ellen Nakashima and Cate Cadell, writing in the Washington Post, reported that anonymous American officials said it “is part of Beijing’s strategy to build a network of military facilities around the world in support of its aspirations to become a true global power.”

The base will be capable of hosting large China naval bases and is Beijing’s second overseas facility. Its first naval base outside China is located in Djibouti in East Africa. China will have exclusive use of the base which will allow it to increase access to and put pressure on countries in the region. Base visits to the area under construction are restricted. Chinese military working at the site over the last year wore uniforms similar to their Cambodian counterparts or none at all to avoid suspicion.

Last year, according to a Pentagon report, a US offer to pay to renovate part of the base was rejected by Phnom Penh. The Cambodian government followed up by demolishing two US-funded facilities at the port. The DOD report suggests that “Cambodia may have instead accepted assistance from the [People’s Republic of China] to develop the base.” A Vietnamese facility at Ream also was relocated off site as China and Vietnam have a tense relationship.

At the opening session of the National People’s Congress in March, China announced it intends to boost the country’s defense budget by 7.1 percent, to a total of 1.45 trillion yuan ($230 billion) in 2022 in the sixth consecutive year of massive increases in military funding. The government called for enhanced spending and advances in military technology to increase side-by-side with the domestic economy. The PLA will be 100 years old in 2027. China intends by that date to have a completely modernized army and by 2035 to have modernized all its national defense programs. Military analysts suggest that the types of programs and amount spent is not in line with a defensive program but represents an aggressive offensive policy.

In 2019 President Xi Jinping called on the PLA to “thoroughly implement” the “military strategic guideline for the new era.” It appears China is taking the next step forward this week with its ground-breaking ceremony at the Ream Base. In April, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Mark Milley, said to Congress “We are entering a world that is becoming more unstable, and the potential for significant international conflict between great powers is increasing, not decreasing.” China is doing nothing to assuage his statement.

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Department

Illustration: DF-41 road-mobile missile (Wikipedia)

Quick Analysis

U.S. Navy Losing Dominance

From the Caribbean to the Mediterranean to the Pacific, the naval forces of Russia and China have challenged the once-dominant position of the United States. On July 18, U.S. Army Gen. Laura J. Richardson, in a speech at the Aspen Institute, warned that Russian warships have been making port visits to Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua, and 22 nations in the U.S. Southern Command’s area of responsibility has signed on to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, the commander of Southcom told attendees of the Aspen Security Forum. Army Gen. Laura J. Richardson said the nations that have signed on to the Chinese initiative don’t see the investments the U.S. has been making in their countries. “All they see are the Chinese cranes,” she said. “These projects are in the billions of dollars. … They are big-time projects.” Richardson said it would be OK with her if those investments were for doing good in the hemisphere. “But it makes me a little suspicious when it’s in the critical infrastructure.” Critical infrastructure, she said, includes deep-water ports, cybersecurity, energy and space. “I worry about the dual use nature of that. These are state-owned enterprises by a communist government. I worry about the flipping of that to a military application,” Richardson said, referring to China. Regarding the Russian port visits, Richardson said U.S. vessels have been shadowing those vessels to ensure the safety and security of the United States. Also, the Russians continue to make high-level government visits to Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua with their foreign affairs minister and the head of the Russian legislative body, she said, adding that the U.S. could be doing more in its own government exchanges. “I really believe that economic security and national security go hand in hand here in this hemisphere, and we have got to work both of them together very, very quickly,” she said. In the Mediterranean, according to the Bulgarian Military A fleet, including the missile cruiser Varyag and the frigate Marshal Shaposhnikov, has successfully navigated the Suez Canal, transitioning from the Mediterranean Sea to the Red Sea, as confirmed by the Pacific Fleet [PF] on Wednesday. The authoritative GIS Reports notes that “In the crucial Indo-Pacific, the tide has changed dramatically against America. the balance of naval power in the Western Pacific has been altered in favor of the Chinese Navy. For instance, the U.S. Navy went from having a 76-warship advantage over China in 2005 to having a 39-combatant deficiency in 2023, based on similar ship and submarine comparisons. That is a swing of 115 naval platforms in 23 years. This is a strategic trend that will continue uninterrupted for at least the next decade.” Rep. Mike Rogers has previously pointed out that The Biden Administration’s 30-year ship-building plan reduces the Navy’s ability to protect its aircraft-carrier strike groups and eliminate enemy minefields, reduces the Marine Corps’ ability to conduct forcible-entry missions, and reduces by almost 10 percent the Navy’s capacity to launch missiles. Public estimates indicate that China will eventually develop a global force of submarines capable of launching ballistic missiles, posing an obvious risk to the U.S. China’s surface-combatant forces already greatly exceed that of the U.S. Photo: Vessels attached to a flotilla with the navy under the PLA Southern Theater Command sail toward the designated area during a comprehensive combat training exercise in late June, 2024. (eng.chinamil.com.cn/Photo by Huang Jiacheng and Wang Jian)

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