China Threatens U.S. – USA Gov Policy

Foreign Minister Wang Yi threatened the United States on Thursday saying that despite talks with US officials over the last couple of months, Washington faces “new shocks” from Beijing since the US is not following the directions discussed in the meetings. During a time when Russo-Chinese relations are growing closer, the Biden Administration is under growing pressure to pay more attention to, and address, its increasingly tense bilateral relationship with China. Wang Yi declared this week that the US is “playing with fire” over Taiwan and demanded President Biden stop “interfering with the Beijing Winter Olympics.”

The “China watchers” in the US examine the formal and informal statements and actions of the CCP and senior leadership in China. In the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Beijing, there are similarly tasked foreign intelligence analysts dissecting every move made by President Biden. While all eyes are on Russia and the prospect of an invasion of Ukraine, Chinese political analysts are preparing reports for President Xi Jinping that suggest “he is free to move aggressively in the Indo-Pacific region,” according to one China watcher. How dangerous is an emboldened China?

Beijing is watching closely how the Biden Administration is responding to the Russian threat and well as what actions Washington is not taking to curb Chinese behavior in the Pacific. If the Biden Administration exhibits a lack of political willpower to stand up to Vladimir Putin in the coming weeks, Xi may assume there also is little risk that Washington will interfere in any offensive moves China makes in the Indo-Pacific. Worse yet, if the Biden Administration’s Russian policy is assessed as very weak Xi could view it as a clear signal that the time is close for Beijing to make a military move against Taiwan or other foreign interests in the area without risk of a direct conflict with the United States.

For months now the US Congress has been plagued by delays and stalled negotiations over legislation meant to increase US competitiveness with China. “The nearly 3,000-page bill is a hodgepodge of stalled spending on US science and technology, including $52 billion for semiconductor manufacturing and $45 billion to shore up US supply chains” according to the Washington Times’ Joseph Clark.

Rep. Michael T. McCaul of Texas, the ranking Republican on the Foreign Affairs Committee told Clark that “Rather than allowing those talks to play out, Speaker Pelosi and House Democrats have decided to torpedo the chance of a bipartisan, bicameral bill to confront the generational threat posed by the Chinese Communist Party.” The haggling is entering it seventh month on Capitol Hill with the two major parties split over how to handle China.

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Xi Jinping and the CCP leadership know that of the 238 bills proposed over the last year to reduce US reliance on Chinese made goods, address Beijing’s military aggression in the Indo-Pacific, and reinforce the American commitment to Taiwan nothing of import has made it to the President’s desk for his signature.

In Asia there is a worsening state of freedom in Hong Kong and Taiwan is threatened regularly by Chinese fighter jets and naval ships piercing its territorial boundaries. Xi appears to move without constraint by democratic states in the region. The PLA is claiming most of the South China Sea for China, despite international rulings against China. Unchecked China has the potential to wreak havoc in Asia in the coming months while the US sits idled by Putin’s military building near Ukraine and a lack of Congressional action. China’s growing power and ambition remains the greater long-term threat to democracies around the world. This year may mark a major shift in the balance of power in the world if the Biden Administration can’t come up with a solid, effective China policy.

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Department, and was stationed in China.

Photo: “The Chinese military is fully prepared for any external provocation,” said Senior Colonel Wu Qian, a spokesperson for China’s Ministry of National Defense.”

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.