Foreign Minister Wang Yi threatened the United States on Thursday saying that despite talks with US officials over the last couple of months, Washington faces “new shocks” from Beijing since the US is not following the directions discussed in the meetings. During a time when Russo-Chinese relations are growing closer, the Biden Administration is under growing pressure to pay more attention to, and address, its increasingly tense bilateral relationship with China. Wang Yi declared this week that the US is “playing with fire” over Taiwan and demanded President Biden stop “interfering with the Beijing Winter Olympics.”
The “China watchers” in the US examine the formal and informal statements and actions of the CCP and senior leadership in China. In the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Beijing, there are similarly tasked foreign intelligence analysts dissecting every move made by President Biden. While all eyes are on Russia and the prospect of an invasion of Ukraine, Chinese political analysts are preparing reports for President Xi Jinping that suggest “he is free to move aggressively in the Indo-Pacific region,” according to one China watcher. How dangerous is an emboldened China?
Beijing is watching closely how the Biden Administration is responding to the Russian threat and well as what actions Washington is not taking to curb Chinese behavior in the Pacific. If the Biden Administration exhibits a lack of political willpower to stand up to Vladimir Putin in the coming weeks, Xi may assume there also is little risk that Washington will interfere in any offensive moves China makes in the Indo-Pacific. Worse yet, if the Biden Administration’s Russian policy is assessed as very weak Xi could view it as a clear signal that the time is close for Beijing to make a military move against Taiwan or other foreign interests in the area without risk of a direct conflict with the United States.
For months now the US Congress has been plagued by delays and stalled negotiations over legislation meant to increase US competitiveness with China. “The nearly 3,000-page bill is a hodgepodge of stalled spending on US science and technology, including $52 billion for semiconductor manufacturing and $45 billion to shore up US supply chains” according to the Washington Times’ Joseph Clark.
Rep. Michael T. McCaul of Texas, the ranking Republican on the Foreign Affairs Committee told Clark that “Rather than allowing those talks to play out, Speaker Pelosi and House Democrats have decided to torpedo the chance of a bipartisan, bicameral bill to confront the generational threat posed by the Chinese Communist Party.” The haggling is entering it seventh month on Capitol Hill with the two major parties split over how to handle China.
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In Asia there is a worsening state of freedom in Hong Kong and Taiwan is threatened regularly by Chinese fighter jets and naval ships piercing its territorial boundaries. Xi appears to move without constraint by democratic states in the region. The PLA is claiming most of the South China Sea for China, despite international rulings against China. Unchecked China has the potential to wreak havoc in Asia in the coming months while the US sits idled by Putin’s military building near Ukraine and a lack of Congressional action. China’s growing power and ambition remains the greater long-term threat to democracies around the world. This year may mark a major shift in the balance of power in the world if the Biden Administration can’t come up with a solid, effective China policy.
Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Department, and was stationed in China.
Photo: “The Chinese military is fully prepared for any external provocation,” said Senior Colonel Wu Qian, a spokesperson for China’s Ministry of National Defense.”