China Task Force Issues Final Report, Part 2

The China Task Force was created to establish a multi-agency examination of the threat posed by China. We conclude our summary of its Final Report.

National Security

• Working with the DoD to modernize force structure, posture, operational concepts, and acquisitions in order to deter CCP aggression in the Indo-Pacific and around the world

• Ensuring modernization of all three legs of the nuclear triad as well as development and fielding of conventional capabilities critical to counter the PLA in the Indo-Pacific, including ground-launched cruise and ballistic missiles

• Underscoring the need for a minimum three to five percent real growth in the defense budget per year in order to deter and defeat the PLA and other key adversaries

• Increasing focus on how the U.S. military protects space capabilities and carrying out space exploration goals by leveraging private sector investments

• Cutting off material support of CCP military industrial base companies, including divestment from companies with ties to the CCP’s military

• Safeguarding the U.S. electoral process and the integrity of our elections with various measures, including the identification of foreign malign actors and ensuring any individuals who engage in interference are inadmissible for entry to the U.S. or deportable if already present

• Providing more resources for investigations, criminal prosecutions, and other actions against CCP sponsored IP theft in addition to closing loopholes the CCP has exploited in our visa system

• Enhancing federal counterintelligence capabilities and bolstering Mandarin language capacity

Technology

• Taking a whole-of-government approach to assess the security risks posed by the PRC in 5G networks and increasing cooperation between the U.S. and its allies and partners in identifying and countering them

• Supporting the formation of a new D-10 group of leading democracies to develop and deploy 5G and subsequent generations and establishing a reimbursement program for companies to remove equipment from their communications networks that poses a national security risk • Securing international leadership in the technologies of tomorrow, including AI, quantum, 5G, and autonomous vehicles

• Sanctioning PRC telecommunications companies engaged in economic or industrial espionage and any PRC entity that tries to hack COVID-19 researchers working on a vaccine

Economics and Energy

• Ensuring no U.S. taxpayer dollars support any PRC state owned enterprises

• Harmonizing export control policies with our partners and allies to keep critical technologies, including

semiconductor manufacturing equipment and R&D, from our adversaries

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• Applying heightened scrutiny for investments in U.S. companies or operations from the PRC

• Strengthening trade relationships with our allies to establish U.S. standards and counter the PRC’s influence

• Pursuing trade policies that deter and protect against the PRC’s theft of IP

• Enforcing reciprocal treatment of PRC investment into the U.S. to restore symmetry in bilateral investment rules

• Ensuring PRC companies are held to the same financial disclosure standards as American companies when listing on U.S. stock exchanges

• Working to deepen our trade ties with Taiwan and resolving specific outstanding trade issues so the

Administration can take steps to launch trade agreement negotiations once those issues are add

ressed

• Strengthening the Development Finance Corporation, Export Import Bank, and other government efforts to more robustly counter the CCP’s Belt and Road Initiative and debt trap diplomacy

• Continuing to advance U.S. energy security in order to be a global counter against the PRC, particulary on the nuclear energy front

Competitiveness

• Doubling the funding of basic science and technology research over the next 10 years

• Increasing coordination and funding for STEM education to create a more capable, skilled workforce

• Strengthening the protection of sensitive research at America’s colleges and universities and leading

research institutions which includes restricting all federal employees and contractors from participating in foreign talent programs

• Requiring colleges and universities to annually report all donations from the PRC

Photo: The USS Gabrielle Giffords conducts routine operations in the vicinity of the Chinese vessel Hai Yang Di Zhi 4 Hao, July 1, 2020. The Navy ship, part of Destroyer Squadron Seven, is on a rotational deployment operating in the U.S. 7th Fleet’s area of operations to enhance interoperability with partners and serve as a ready-response force. (DoD photo)

Quick Analysis

Putin’s Saber Rattling

Earlier this week, President Biden reversed his 2022 decision, authorizing the provision of antipersonnel land mines to the Ukrainian government. It follows an earlier Administration authorization to allow the use of an advanced American missile system capable of striking as deep as 100 miles inside Russian territory. The US election season may be ending, but both Russia and the West show no indication of stepping down the conflict. Russian propaganda continues to swell as the Kremlin increases its threats to use nuclear weapons against the West. Last week Andrey Sushentsov, program director of the pro-Kremlin think tank Valdai Discussion Club (VDC), published an article on growing nuclear tensions in the region. Official Russian language in the last few years has been threatening. Since the US election, rhetoric like that in the Sushentsov article, has approached the level of nuclear blackmail. The VDC article’s main theme centers on Russia’s intent to directly confront the West militarily if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) becomes involved in Russia’s conflict with Ukraine. “On the one hand, these threats are intended to frighten the West, but on the other, Russian propagandists themselves are starting to believe in the inevitability of escalation,” according to Ksenia Kirillova of the Jamestown Foundation. On November 11, Sushentsov wrote that “The conflict will reach a completely new level, with unpredictable consequences for Europe and the entire world.” Kirillova points out that Putin’s distorted image of the world is divorced from reality and is causing the Kremlin to issue demands that are impossible to fulfill. Financial and other Russian resources needed to support Putin’s war are growing scarcer at the same time. This week the Kremlin announced a reduction of payments to its soldiers. Recently North Korea acknowledged it was sending soldiers to fight in Ukraine as Putin is running out of bodies to use as cannon fire. The war is not going well for Russia. One question floating around the Washington intelligence community is whether Putin will act out of desperation before President-elect Trump assumes office. In recent months the Russian propaganda machine is spewing out materials from fairly reputable analytical platforms inside the country. Kirillova says that “Kremlin ‘experts’ do not conceal that such threats are only intended to break the West psychologically, as they themselves are not prepared for full-scale nuclear war.” Despite Russia’s lack of preparation for an all-out war with the West, the expanding nuclear rhetoric carries with it an increase in the threat of a full-scale war in multiple theaters of operation. In June 2023 a founder of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Sergey Karaganov, called for “delivering a pre-emptive strike of retaliation” on Poland to force the West to surrender. In the previous month, Dmitry Suslov, a direct of research programs at the policy center proposed organizing “a demonstration nuclear explosion” aimed at intimidating the West. In September, President Putin announced a reappraisal of Russian nuclear doctrine after speaking earlier in the year at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum and jokingly calling Suslov a “scary person.” Pavel Baev, writing in the European Daily Monitor, says “Putin intends his announcement to mark an escalation of nuclear brinkmanship and influence the proceedings of future Ukrainian peace efforts.” Putin is expanding the list of environmental conditions that are acceptable for using a nuclear weapon and incorporating it into Russian military doctrine. Baev adds that “The ups and downs of Russian brinkmanship are disconnected from the kinetic battles of the war, correlating instead with Ukrainian peace offensives, such as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s first peace summit in Bürgenstock, Switzerland.” Despite the increase in vitriolic language, in a You Tube video published a week before the US presidential election, Karaganov openly assured the West the primary goal of the escalation is to break the American spirit and that of the West, not outright nuclear war. By Election Day in the US, with political prognosticators predicting a win for former president Trump, Karaganov changed his tune and called for an increased role in nuclear deterrence. Kirillova points out that Western concessions to Russia are unlikely to reduce the risk of nuclear escalation. The distorted reality inside the Kremlin continues to push that President-elect Trump is an adherent of “world government,” that Ukraine will create a nuclear weapon, and Russia must prepare for a nuclear conflagration to achieve its ambitions for a new world order. President-elect Trump has indicated he will not agree to concessions that destabilize Europe, the Middle East or other regions. Going forward a strong US foreign policy may be the most stabilizing course the West can count on to restrain Putin and his intent to rebuild the Russian empire. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay

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