China Solidifies Powerful Role

Over the last few decades China has solidified its role as a powerful force in global politics. It operates the world’s second largest economy and commands a modern, world-class military. President Xi Jinping employs a multipronged approach toward global governance by supporting international goals that are in line with China’s interests and undermining those that diverge from the ideal communist model. He continues to support Putin’s war effort while also advancing Beijing’s agenda throughout Europe despite increasing domestic economic issues at home. Recently, the Chinese state won a tender in Russia’s back yard to construct a deep-sea port which could alter the power structure throughout the Black Sea region.

The Georgian Dream government announced that a Chinese-led consortium working with a Singaporean company will construct and manage the strategic Anaklia deep-water port. This latest Chinese geopolitical project, according to Giorgi Menabde of the Jamestown Foundation, “could drastically change the geoeconomic and geopolitical situation in the region, providing China more economic power and influence, and turning Tbilisi closer to Moscow through Beijing’s alliance with the Kremlin.” Western influence in Georgia, which had been growing stronger since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, is starting to wane. Beijing is filling the gap once held by the West politically and economically. It is emerging as Georgia’s primary strategic partner while also strengthening its position in the South Caucasus. The strategic implications are enormous as China is outpacing Russia influence in the region.

China and Georgia declared a “strategic partnership” last year that led to the May 29 announcement of the new port agreement. The consortium includes two major Chinese companies and two Chinese subcontractors. The “Anaklia Deep Sea Port” company, a Georgian-owned state company, retains a 51-percent share with the consortium holding a 49-percent share. “The deep-sea port will reportedly be constructed based on Chinese cargo needs and looks to become a critical node in Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative,” according to Menabde.

The Chinese company involved in the deal was blacklisted by the US Government in August 2020 for building artificial islands in the South China Sea for military use, according to the US Department of Commerce. In response to criticism over the move, the government in Tbilisi issued a statement saying that “blacklisted” doesn’t mean Washington sanctioned the firm. According to political analysts in Washington, this is a clear indication that Georgia is turning away from the West when it comes to what companies are acceptable as partners. Menabde says it is also a signal of an “increase of influence [by China] on Tbilisi’s decision-making.”

Former President of the Georgian National Bank Roman Gotsiridze stated in his May 31 interview with this author that “the Anaklia deep-sea port project is not only an economic project. It directly concerns issues of Georgia’s strategic security.” Menabde adds he argued, “China’s dominance at the Port of Anaklia will have economic and political consequences for the security of the entire Black Sea region and in the context of a real alliance between China and Russia on the issue of Russian aggression against Ukraine.” At the same time as China is developing a significant port facility in the country, Russia is also building a naval base a few miles away at the Port of Ochamchire in the occupied Abkhazia region of Georgia. Some analysts suggest this is to hide the Russian navy’s warships that “escaped” from Crimea and that it will benefit Russia.

A Georgian historian and political scientist Paata Chekurishvili, an advocate of the Georgian-Chinese partnership, told the Jamestown Foundation that “The case concerns the moving of the ‘Middle Corridor’ to the south toward the so-called Zangezur transport and energy corridor, which can be launched under the same patronage of the United States and the European Union.” … This is only in the interests of Georgia’s northern neighbor—Russia.” This deal cements China’s geopolitical involvement in the region and adds another notch in China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.

Photo: Naval vessels attached to a destroyer flotilla under the PLA Eastern Theater Command sail towards the designated waters during a training exercise on May 14,2024. (eng.chinamil.com.cn/Photo by Wan Haichao)

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.