Daria Novak, a former U.S. State Department official with significant experience in Chinese affairs, authored this column. She writes each Friday on related topics.

Chinese government officials, and even some trade experts in Beijing, breathed a quick sigh of relief as the 96-page, Phase One of the US-China trade deal was inked on January 15, 2020. But does it represent more than a short respite in the trade war?

Unlike previous American administrations President Trump demanded, and won, real concessions from the Chinese along with rules for enforcing those changes. The US stood its ground in the trade talks and refused to accept the small, incremental moves offered to and accepted without reciprocity by previous American administrations – Republican and Democrat alike. While it remains questionable that China will enforce all the new trade rules, especially if they stand in opposition to the government’s domestic economic development plan, Phase One will define the path the two nations walk going forward in 2020. For the first time there is a new law creating a domestic mechanism in China that can be used by aggrieved parties to demand a fairer playing field when it comes to the theft of intellectual property (IP).

According to the Agreement China must create a public action plan to explain how it will implement enforcement of IP rights and obligations. The requirement that China publish this enforcement data will, at a minimum, provide a more accurate method for Washington to gauge China’s progress. This was lacking in previous negotiations. In return the US has agreed only to reduce a portion of the tariffs on $360 billion in Chinese imports in the eight-chapter agreement.

President Xi Jinping now faces a robust series of provisions in the agreement related to technology transfer and intellectual property theft designed to shed light on China’s unfair trade practices. At issue for the United States is whether or not Xi will take the pragmatic steps required to implement those provisions. On the other hand, the Trump Administration is not facing any new Chinese demands on technology transfer or IP protections – with well-deserved credit going to USTR Lighthizer who negotiated Washington’s core grievance well.

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A less noticed but significant provision in the Agreement is the establishment of a Bilateral Evaluation and Dispute Resolution Office. This mechanism provides a tiered and straight-forward system headed by the USTR and a Chinese vice premier. Below them are designated positions to handle day-to-day issues and the appeals process. If no resolution can be reached there is a process in place that parties may use to escalate the complaint. In the past, US companies bristled at exposing their firms to the public scrutiny of making such a complaint. Whether the Office is a success may depend on American’s firms’ willingness to use it.

Remedial measures, according to the Agreement, are to be proportionate and not retaliatory with the goal of creating and maintaining a normal trading relationship. If the other side does not agree, the only possible recourse is to withdraw from the agreement with a 60-day written notice, an action China is not likely to take over a single issue. Talks on Phase 2 of the trade deal are likely to begin soon but not conclude until after the US Presidential this fall.

At home President Xi faces a myriad of issues related to the US economic sanctions, including a cooling domestic economy with growth slowing to levels below the required 6.2% required to achieve the country’s 10-year economic plan goal. If China’s top policymakers cannot find ways to curtail the slowdown and maintain growth there may be increased instability in the Chinese economy. This is on top of other domestic issues Xi must deal with such as the unrest in Hong Kong and the Uighur minority in western China.

Photo: Chinese government official site

Quick Analysis

Election Day is Only the Beginning, Part 2

There is a stark contrast in foreign affairs between the Biden-Harris record of a disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Putin invasion of Ukraine, China’s assault on the Philippine exclusive economic zone, and the widening Middle East catastrophe. The Trump White House archives provides a lengthy list of foreign policy results. “President Trump restored American sovereignty at home and American leadership abroad, partnering with strong and responsible nations to promote security, prosperity, and peace. Instead of sending American troops to fight in endless wars or giving cash to terrorists in countries like Iran, the United States under President Trump used bold, creative diplomacy to secure peace deals with our allies across the world. With the same “peace through strength” foreign policy that President Reagan once used to win the Cold War, President Trump rebuilt American deterrence power to hold our adversaries accountable. Perhaps most important, the Trump Administration reversed Washington’s decades-long, bipartisan refusal to confront China over its unfair trade practices, intellectual property theft, and more. Specifically, the Trump Administration: “Secured a $400 billion increase in defense spending from NATO allies by 2024, as the number of members meeting their minimum financial obligations more than doubled Credited by Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg for strengthening NATO Worked to reform and streamline the United Nations and reduced spending by $1.3 billion Allies, including Japan and the Republic of Korea, committed to increase burden-sharing Protected our Second Amendment rights by announcing that the United States will never ratify the UN Arms Trade Treaty Returned 56 hostages and detainees from more than 24 countries Worked to advance a free and open Indo-Pacific region, promoting new investments and expanding American partnerships Advanced peace through strength Withdrew from the one-sided Iran Nuclear Deal and imposed crippling sanctions on the Iranian regime Conducted vigorous enforcement on all sanctions to bring Iran’s oil exports to zero and deny the regime its principal source of revenue First president to meet with a leader of North Korea and the first sitting president to cross the demilitarized zone into North Korea Maintained a maximum pressure campaign and enforced tough sanctions on North Korea while negotiating denuclearization, the release of American hostages, and the return of the remains of American heroes Brokered economic normalization between Serbia and Kosovo, bolstering peace in the Balkans Signed the Hong Kong Autonomy Act and ended the United States’ preferential treatment with Hong Kong to hold China accountable for its infringement on the autonomy of Hong Kong Led allied efforts to defeat the Chinese Communist Party’s efforts to control the international telecommunications system Recognized Jerusalem as the true capital of Israel and quickly moved the American Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem Acknowledged Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan Heights and declared that Israeli settlements in the West Bank are not inconsistent with international law Removed the United States from the United Nations Human Rights Council due to the group’s blatant anti-Israel bias Brokered historic peace agreements between Israel and Arab-Muslim countries, including the United Arab Emirates, the Kingdom of Bahrain, and Sudan Brokered a deal for Kosovo to normalize ties and establish diplomatic relations with Israel Announced that Serbia would move its embassy in Israel to Jerusalem First American president to address an assembly of leaders from more than 50 Muslim nations, reaching an agreement to fight terrorism in all its forms Established the Etidal Center to combat terrorism in the Middle East in conjunction with the Saudi Arabian government Announced the Vision for Peace Political Plan—a two-state solution that resolves the risks of Palestinian statehood to Israel’s security, marking the first time Israel has agreed to a map and a Palestinian state Released an economic plan to empower the Palestinian people and enhance Palestinian governance through historic private investment Reversed the previous administration’s Cuba policy, canceling the sellout deal with the Communist Castro dictatorship Pledged not to lift sanctions until all political prisoners are freed, freedoms of assembly and expression are respected, all political parties are legalized, and free elections are scheduled Enacted a new policy aimed at preventing American dollars from funding the Cuban regime, including stricter travel restrictions and restrictions on the importation of Cuban alcohol and tobacco Implemented a cap on remittances to Cuba Enabled Americans to file lawsuits against persons and entities that traffic in property confiscated by the Cuban regime First world leader to recognize Juan Guaido as the Interim President of Venezuela and led a diplomatic coalition against the Socialist Dictator of Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro Blocked all property of the Venezuelan government in the jurisdiction of the United States Cut off the financial resources of the Maduro regime and sanctioned key sectors of the Venezuelan economy exploited by the regime Brought criminal charges against Nicolas Maduro for his narco-terrorism Imposed stiff sanctions on the Ortega regime in Nicaragua Photo: Trump site