China, Iran Cut Deal – USA Gov Policy

Chinese President Xi Jinping is calling for vastly increased domestic production of consumer goods its population will require in the coming years. The broad reorientation in Beijing’s policy appears to be in preparation for foreign economic sanctions it expects in response to the country’s increasingly aggressive foreign policy. It is not a good sign for Western leaders aiming to bring China into alignment with the accepted norms of the international rules-based system.

To ramp up domestic manufacturing China needs oil. Last week Beijing signed a massive deal with Iran when it agreed to invest $400 billion in the country over the next 25 years in exchange for a steady supply of discounted oil to fuel its economy. This is in direct conflict with US attempts to isolate the Iranian regime to bring it into compliance with the 2015 nuclear agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA. China is expanding its influence in multiple sectors in the Middle East, including banking, telecommunications, technology, and other infrastructure investments, according to the New York Times. “Although the contents of the deal haven’t been fully disclosed, it will certainly involve massive Chinese investment in Iran’s infrastructural, industrial, economic and petrochemical sectors,” according to a Real Clear Defense news article this week. The Center for New American Security is reporting that “Cooperation between Russia and China has deepened across nearly every dimension of their relationship, from diplomacy and defense to economics and technology. This growing cooperation threatens to challenge America’s national security interests and poses serious risks for liberal democracies.” The reality is that China is making inroads in the Middle East and beyond. The West Coast think tank, RAND, says that “US policy toward the Middle East has relied heavily on military instruments of power and has focused on regional threats—particularly the Iranian threat—with the goal of keeping partners on “our side.” These long-standing policies have largely fallen short of meeting core US interests and adapting to new regional realities and strategic imperatives.

China, one of the five signatories of the JCPOA agreement, sided with Iran recently when it publicly rebuffed President Biden’s overtures to gradually lift sanctions on the Iranian economy. Then China, in a bold move, demanded that Washington take the first step. At the signing ceremony in Iran, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi announced that “China firmly supports Iran in safeguarding its state sovereignty and national dignity,” according to the Chinese Foreign Ministry. Unlike earlier deals, an Iranian official said that last week’s signing included provisions for increased military cooperation, weapons development, and intelligence-sharing with the communist giant. The formal cementing of a China-Iran partnership does not bode well for stability in the region, but it appears on the horizon.

Iran’s Foreign Minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, called “China a friend for hard times,” at the signing ceremony last week and that “The history of cooperation between two ancient cultures of Iran and China dates back centuries. Signing the cooperation agreement will further strengthen the ties of the two nations.” China is emerging as a regional power broker of economic importance in the Middle East. Beijing recently extended an offer to help Iran resolve disputes with other countries in the region over its nuclear program, including a proposal to host direct talks between the Israelis and the Palestinians.

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Previously, China deferred working closely with Iran or signing major deals to preserve its relationship with oil-rich Saudi Arabia. “Deeper and wider cooperation between China and Iran, especially when considered in the context of their close ties with Russia and the trio’s adversarial relations with the US, carries a strong potential for changing the regional strategic landscape, according to Real Clear Defense. The perception by Israel, the US, and Gulf Arab states of an expanded Chinese threat, in addition to Iran’s spreading influence in the Levant (Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq) and Yemen means that the world could be watching the largest anti-US alliance form within a short period of time.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Friday, she presents key updates on China.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Putin’s Saber Rattling

Earlier this week, President Biden reversed his 2022 decision, authorizing the provision of antipersonnel land mines to the Ukrainian government. It follows an earlier Administration authorization to allow the use of an advanced American missile system capable of striking as deep as 100 miles inside Russian territory. The US election season may be ending, but both Russia and the West show no indication of stepping down the conflict. Russian propaganda continues to swell as the Kremlin increases its threats to use nuclear weapons against the West. Last week Andrey Sushentsov, program director of the pro-Kremlin think tank Valdai Discussion Club (VDC), published an article on growing nuclear tensions in the region. Official Russian language in the last few years has been threatening. Since the US election, rhetoric like that in the Sushentsov article, has approached the level of nuclear blackmail. The VDC article’s main theme centers on Russia’s intent to directly confront the West militarily if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) becomes involved in Russia’s conflict with Ukraine. “On the one hand, these threats are intended to frighten the West, but on the other, Russian propagandists themselves are starting to believe in the inevitability of escalation,” according to Ksenia Kirillova of the Jamestown Foundation. On November 11, Sushentsov wrote that “The conflict will reach a completely new level, with unpredictable consequences for Europe and the entire world.” Kirillova points out that Putin’s distorted image of the world is divorced from reality and is causing the Kremlin to issue demands that are impossible to fulfill. Financial and other Russian resources needed to support Putin’s war are growing scarcer at the same time. This week the Kremlin announced a reduction of payments to its soldiers. Recently North Korea acknowledged it was sending soldiers to fight in Ukraine as Putin is running out of bodies to use as cannon fire. The war is not going well for Russia. One question floating around the Washington intelligence community is whether Putin will act out of desperation before President-elect Trump assumes office. In recent months the Russian propaganda machine is spewing out materials from fairly reputable analytical platforms inside the country. Kirillova says that “Kremlin ‘experts’ do not conceal that such threats are only intended to break the West psychologically, as they themselves are not prepared for full-scale nuclear war.” Despite Russia’s lack of preparation for an all-out war with the West, the expanding nuclear rhetoric carries with it an increase in the threat of a full-scale war in multiple theaters of operation. In June 2023 a founder of the Russian Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Sergey Karaganov, called for “delivering a pre-emptive strike of retaliation” on Poland to force the West to surrender. In the previous month, Dmitry Suslov, a direct of research programs at the policy center proposed organizing “a demonstration nuclear explosion” aimed at intimidating the West. In September, President Putin announced a reappraisal of Russian nuclear doctrine after speaking earlier in the year at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum and jokingly calling Suslov a “scary person.” Pavel Baev, writing in the European Daily Monitor, says “Putin intends his announcement to mark an escalation of nuclear brinkmanship and influence the proceedings of future Ukrainian peace efforts.” Putin is expanding the list of environmental conditions that are acceptable for using a nuclear weapon and incorporating it into Russian military doctrine. Baev adds that “The ups and downs of Russian brinkmanship are disconnected from the kinetic battles of the war, correlating instead with Ukrainian peace offensives, such as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s first peace summit in Bürgenstock, Switzerland.” Despite the increase in vitriolic language, in a You Tube video published a week before the US presidential election, Karaganov openly assured the West the primary goal of the escalation is to break the American spirit and that of the West, not outright nuclear war. By Election Day in the US, with political prognosticators predicting a win for former president Trump, Karaganov changed his tune and called for an increased role in nuclear deterrence. Kirillova points out that Western concessions to Russia are unlikely to reduce the risk of nuclear escalation. The distorted reality inside the Kremlin continues to push that President-elect Trump is an adherent of “world government,” that Ukraine will create a nuclear weapon, and Russia must prepare for a nuclear conflagration to achieve its ambitions for a new world order. President-elect Trump has indicated he will not agree to concessions that destabilize Europe, the Middle East or other regions. Going forward a strong US foreign policy may be the most stabilizing course the West can count on to restrain Putin and his intent to rebuild the Russian empire. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay

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