Chinese President Xi Jinping is calling for vastly increased domestic production of consumer goods its population will require in the coming years. The broad reorientation in Beijing’s policy appears to be in preparation for foreign economic sanctions it expects in response to the country’s increasingly aggressive foreign policy. It is not a good sign for Western leaders aiming to bring China into alignment with the accepted norms of the international rules-based system.
To ramp up domestic manufacturing China needs oil. Last week Beijing signed a massive deal with Iran when it agreed to invest $400 billion in the country over the next 25 years in exchange for a steady supply of discounted oil to fuel its economy. This is in direct conflict with US attempts to isolate the Iranian regime to bring it into compliance with the 2015 nuclear agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA. China is expanding its influence in multiple sectors in the Middle East, including banking, telecommunications, technology, and other infrastructure investments, according to the New York Times. “Although the contents of the deal haven’t been fully disclosed, it will certainly involve massive Chinese investment in Iran’s infrastructural, industrial, economic and petrochemical sectors,” according to a Real Clear Defense news article this week. The Center for New American Security is reporting that “Cooperation between Russia and China has deepened across nearly every dimension of their relationship, from diplomacy and defense to economics and technology. This growing cooperation threatens to challenge America’s national security interests and poses serious risks for liberal democracies.” The reality is that China is making inroads in the Middle East and beyond. The West Coast think tank, RAND, says that “US policy toward the Middle East has relied heavily on military instruments of power and has focused on regional threats—particularly the Iranian threat—with the goal of keeping partners on “our side.” These long-standing policies have largely fallen short of meeting core US interests and adapting to new regional realities and strategic imperatives.
China, one of the five signatories of the JCPOA agreement, sided with Iran recently when it publicly rebuffed President Biden’s overtures to gradually lift sanctions on the Iranian economy. Then China, in a bold move, demanded that Washington take the first step. At the signing ceremony in Iran, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi announced that “China firmly supports Iran in safeguarding its state sovereignty and national dignity,” according to the Chinese Foreign Ministry. Unlike earlier deals, an Iranian official said that last week’s signing included provisions for increased military cooperation, weapons development, and intelligence-sharing with the communist giant. The formal cementing of a China-Iran partnership does not bode well for stability in the region, but it appears on the horizon.
Iran’s Foreign Minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, called “China a friend for hard times,” at the signing ceremony last week and that “The history of cooperation between two ancient cultures of Iran and China dates back centuries. Signing the cooperation agreement will further strengthen the ties of the two nations.” China is emerging as a regional power broker of economic importance in the Middle East. Beijing recently extended an offer to help Iran resolve disputes with other countries in the region over its nuclear program, including a proposal to host direct talks between the Israelis and the Palestinians.
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DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Friday, she presents key updates on China.
Illustration: Pixabay