China Deepens Central Asia Ties

China is deepening its cooperation with Central Asia to secure access to the region’s vast supply of raw earth materials.

Kazakhstan, a major player in the uranium and critical minerals market, is one of Beijing’s main targets. The Central Asian state is positioning itself as a strategic mineral hub to attract foreign investment and diversify its partnerships. With increased geopolitical competition for copper,
zinc, lead and nickel, China is racing to deliver those technical and economic benefits to Kazakhstan.

Western democratic states are growing increasingly concerned over the level of China’s involvement in the region and its ability to exact limited control over strategic resources. Beijing offers Kazakhstani
leaders job creation, technology transfer, and new economic channels, in an attempt to replace Russia’s earlier dominance in the region. Yunis Sharifli, of the Jamestown Foundation, says that Kazakhstan aims
to balance Chinese involvement by “actively pursuing partnerships with the United States, European Union, and Japan, while incorporating local content and knowledge transfer into future agreements.”

Last June China and Kazakhstan formalized a landmark agreement to construct one of Central Asia’s most advanced copper smelting facilities by the end of 2028, capable of producing 300,000 tons of copper annually. At a cost of over $1.5 billion, the facility represents a transformative integration of upstream and downstream operations, combining access to one of the world’s largest copper mines with state-of-the-art processing technology. China will bring 1,000 jobs to the country with this single
project, according to the Astan Financial Center.

In March, Gabidulla Ospankulov, Chairperson of the Investment Committee of the Kazakh Ministry of Foreign Affairs, spoke on a panel discussing “Investments, Supply Chains, and National Legislation” at
the Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada’s 2025 convention, notes Sharifli. He spoke about his country’s growing geostrategic position as a crossroads in the global supply chains among China, the
United States, and the European Union. Currently, through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) China controls approximately 70% of the world’s capacity for processing critical minerals such as lithium,
cobalt, rare earth elements, and graphite. During the last two years, China increased joint ventures with Kazakh mining companies to lock in supply deals and expand refining capabilities. As hard as Western
nations are pushing back on China’s overseas investment strategy to diversify its supply, Beijing is equally strident about ramping up its efforts to create joint ventures and control Kazakh mining companies.

Last November, China’s Jiaxin International Resources Investment Company opened its first tungsten production plant in Kazakhstan in the Almaty region, according to the Ministry of Industry and Construction of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Beijing understands Astana’s financial, technological, and human resource constraints in extracting mineral resources. Xi Jinping also recognizes that Western advanced economies need these same resources. Sharifli says that one of the most notable areas of Chinese-Kazakhstan cooperation in critical minerals thus far has been an agreement signed last month between Kazakh First Deputy Prime Minister Roman Sklyar and the PRC’s East Hope Group General Director, Changjun Meng. It establishes plans for a vertically integrated non-ferrous metals production complex for aluminum, copper, and silver. The agreement, he says, includes a $12 billion investment for the creation of approximately 10 thousand jobs and the establishment of an industrial ecosystem.

The Prime Minister of Kazakhstan says the Chinese-led project promises to introduce cutting-edge metallurgical technologies while expanding his country’s presence in international markets for finished metal products.
The OCSE Academy in Biskek says that “Kazakhstan hosts the largest number of projects and receives the largest amount of Chinese investment” with Turkmenistan the second largest recipient of Chinese
financing. Historically China focused primarily on securing access to raw materials throughout Central Asia. Today, Beijing is adapting to Kazakhstan’s strategic priorities for domestic value addition.

The United States is responding to these developments by increasing its diplomatic ties with Kazakhstan and the other Central Asian states. Washington is calling on the region not to lean too hard into China or
Russia. The US is offering development financing through the US International Development Finance Corporation to fund non-Chinese infrastructure and mineral projects. Washington also initiated talks to
collaborate on rare earth and uranium projects to thwart Chinese and Russian effort to control global critical mineral supplies.

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Department

Photo: A Tajikistan scene (Pixabay)

Quick Analysis

Russia’s Alarming Espionage

There is an alarming shift in Russian espionage tactics, involving the recruitment of individuals suffering from substance addiction for sabotage missions as part of a broader hybrid warfare strategy targeting Sweden and Europe, according to a March report from Sweden’s Security Service. In a recent written statement, Sweden’s Security Service (Säkerhetspolisen, SÄPO), urged local police departments in Sweden to increase surveillance and be alert for increased Russian intelligence activities, including the dissemination of disinformation, cyberattacks, and covert operations. Drug addicts are reportedly being sought because of their low social status and subsequent effective invisibility, a valued quality in espionage operatives, says John Daly of the Jamestown Foundation. Russia relies on “legitimate” espionage methods and channels such as its embassy personnel and religious institution. It conducts covert operations and targets potential assets through online social media campaigns, he adds. Recently, though, Moscow has dramatically increased its intelligence efforts to destabilize Sweden. It may be due, in part, to the country’s accession to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) one year ago. The recent SÄPO statement points out that foreign powers are using security-threatening and hybrid activities, influence, theft of technology and knowledge, mapping and threats against its opponents in an escalation of illegal intelligence activities in the new NATO member state. Last month, the publication Säkerhetspolisen noted an increased “Russian risk appetite” accompanied by threats of sabotage. In recent years Iran has used criminal networks in the country to carry out violent acts with quiet support from the Kremlin. The heightened focus on “hybrid warfare,” suggests an evolution in tactics that include a range of activities aimed against Europe. “Public opinion in both Sweden and Finland was firmly against joining NATO before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. After Russia’s full-scale invasion, support for NATO membership subsequently surged,” says Daly. This is not the first public announcement from SÄPO. Last year its head, Charlotte von Essen warned at a national “People and Defense” conference that Russian intelligence activities we well as other security-threatening events would increase with NATO membership as the motivating factor for Russian hybrid warfare. Moscow has long relied on the use of “expendable” agents, individuals who are used for single missions. Von Essen revealed that SÄPO has been infiltrated by Russian intelligence in the last few years. As far back as 2021, Peyman Kia, one of two brothers of Iranian origin were charged with spying for Russia for over a decade. Both held positions at SÄPO and Militära underrättelse-och säkerhetstjänsten (Military Intelligence and Security Service, MUST). Peyman’s position was in the most secret known Swedish intelligence organization, Kontoret för särskild inhämtning (Office for Special Collection, KSI). The brothers shared top secret information, according to Daly, from the Security Service and Armed Forces. After they were caught, Peyman received a life sentence in prison and his brother, Kayyam, was given almost ten years. Russia has many “expendable” agents in place. After recruitment they are used to carry out sabotage and influence operations throughout Europe. The global intelligence community has long recognized that the Kremlin not only recruits but also provides instructions via social media platforms and places little care on their fate if caught. Day says that “their singular missions deny them knowledge of the specific breadth and depth of Russian intelligence efforts.” Putin used the Russian Orthodox Church in Sweden as a second “legitimate” asset, says the publication Expressen AB. Russian espionage operations are not confined to Sweden; they present challenges across Europe today. Daly suggests that they also impact NATO’s larger defense challenges. Last week, the UK Defence Journal noted that Sweden takes its alliance responsibilities seriously and marked the first anniversary of its accession to NATO by deploying JAS 39 Gripen fighter jets to Poland as a contribution to NATO’s Enhanced Air Policing mission. Poland and the Baltic states are reporting similar espionage cases involving Russian assets. Sweden’s membership in NATO produced a decisive powershift in the Baltic region. While it may make the region safer, it also presents an increased intelligence interest from Russia and threat to Sweden’s territorial integrity and political sovereignty. Russia is adept at using politically destabilizing, hybrid tactics to create unrest and shift focus away from its other aggressive activities. In December, Washington and Stockholm signed a Memorandum of Understanding to jointly address foreign malign information influence activities and the spread of disinformation. The goal is to strengthen cooperation amid heightened geopolitical tensions. To bolster a quick response to counter Russian aggression, General Christopher Cavoli, NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe, confirmed that US troops will remain stationed across Europe. President Trump is also advocating for NATO member countries to increase their defense spending. He proposed they allocate at least 5% of their Gross National Product (GNP) to defense, a significant rise from the current 2% guideline. The collective defense capabilities of NATO may be needed to ensure Sweden, and the Baltic states, remain free of Russian threats and interference in their internal affairs in the coming year. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. Illustration: Pixabay