China Big Winner in Afghanistan

Some political strategists in Washington are taking on a second job as “wallpaper hangers” this past week. They are working overtime to cover up the Biden-Harris Administration’s Afghanistan debacle, claiming it was “necessary” so the US can “concentrate” on great power competition with China. What they fail to acknowledge is that China remains an intricate factor increasing the threat to the security environment since the fall of the government. The overall Central Asian region also is more destabilized due to China’s relationship with various factions of the Taliban leadership both in- and outside Afghanistan. No amount of double-talk can paste over the Biden Administration’s mess or make it disappear from the West’s scrutiny. China has been politically active in Central Asia for many years. The breadth of its interests in the region range from securing its own border areas against Islamist incursions, to expanding its sphere of political influence, and extending its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). On balance, the fall of Afghanistan is good for China, not America.

On August 16, one day after the Taliban took over Kabul, Hua Chunying, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman announced in a press conference in the Chinese capital that it was “ready to continue to develop good-neighborliness and friendly cooperation with Afghanistan and play a constructive role in Afghanistan’s peace and reconstruction.” Hua added, “We hope the Afghan Taliban can form solidarity with all factions and ethnic groups in Afghanistan and build a broad-based and inclusive political structure suited to the national realities….” It was not an immediate recognition of the Taliban. Using acceptable international diplomatic practices when to its advantage, Beijing cited the custom that recognition of a nation-state is to be withheld until a government is formed.

China has more than one ulterior motive that explains how it is handling the Afghanistan issue. The country’s rare earths, precious gems, geographic location, and severing of its ties with democratic states are all positive factors favoring Beijing. President Xi Jinping is a superb strategist, however, and knows to be cautious about moving too fast. The unrest in China’s western Uyghur region remains a thorn in Xi Jinping’s side despite his crackdown of the Muslim minority groups in the area. Some Uyghur Islamist extremists live outside China in nearby Central Asian countries. Xi is disquieted that potential unrest from these minority groups could spillover inside China’s borderlands in the Xinjiang-Uyghur Autonomous Region. Second, China recognizes there could be instability from future civil conflict inside Afghanistan that spreads across Central Asia, another situation he hopes to avoid. China has economic interests in Afghanistan and has invested over $60 billion in Pakistan in infrastructure development under its BRI. The potential economic and political payoffs loom large if Xi plays the game well.

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On Tuesday US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi spoke on the phone about what China is requiring the US to do to gain its cooperation in Afghanistan. The tone of diplomatic exchange between the two nations was one of a overlord ordering a supplicant, according to sources with knowledge of the exchange. This week on Wednesday China’s President spoke with the leaders of Iran and Iraq and Wang discussed the situation with his counterparts in Pakistan and Turkey. China is playing power broker in the region and openly suggesting that “democratic transitions” don’t work, the US has failed in its commitment to Afghanistan and, predicting that Washington will fail to stand by Taiwan. However unlikely that the Biden Administration will abandon Taiwan, Wang still attained points in the public relations Cold War with the US. The fast fall of Afghanistan and the US withdrawal of its military before its US citizens sent shock waves through Asia. Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen has been uncharacteristically quiet about the situation. China’s strategic patience is likely to result in its securing access to several trillion dollars in rare earths and other gems needed to run a modern economy. It also will further limit the United States’ ability to secure the processed material it needs for America’s national security as China already controls 95% of the global supply of rare earths.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Friday, she presents key updates on China.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.