The US-China Economic and Security Review Commission has just released its 2017 “Report to Congress.” The Commission’s analysis reveals that Beijing’s meteoric economic rise in recent years is beginning to show some strain and increasing debt. Of particular concern to Americans is the vast deficit the U.S. has in its trade relations, some of which has been generated by China’s unfair trade practices. Perhaps the most worrisome aspect is Beijing’s continued massive growth in military power, and the aggressive nature of Chinese relations with nations within its region. We have excerpted the key findings of the Report, and present them in four parts without comment.
CHINA AND THE WORLD
China and continental Southeast Asia
China’s relations with Burma (Myanmar), Cambodia, Laos, and Thailand are driven by two broad goals: taking advantage of Southeast Asia’s economic potential and balancing the region’s geopolitical opportunities against its security vulnerabilities. In pursuit of these goals, China has leveraged its economic importance to Southeast Asia and capitalized on regional countries’ infrastructure needs. China has also forged ties with key regional political groups, particularly in Burma where China has supported different sides of Burma’s ethnic conflict.
Economically, the region boasts some of the highest growth rates in the world as well as valuable mineral and agricultural resources, such as Burma’s $31 billion jade trade. China uses a number of tactics to exploit the region—including trade links, infrastructure projects, and assistance packages—in a way that benefits China’s economic interests. For example, Chinese infrastructure projects in the region will help give Chinese exporters a competitive edge in regional markets and ameliorate excess capacity in China’s construction sector. Chinese firms have also invested in plantations and mineral extraction projects that have harmed host countries, including jade smuggling in Burma and pesticide-heavy plantations in Laos that have left thousands of workers sick.
Geopolitically, China desires stability and leverage along its 1,370 mile border with Burma where fighting between ethnic armed groups and Burma’s army has claimed the lives of Chinese citizens. China sees an opportunity to bypass its energy supply vulnerabilities in the Strait of Malacca by establishing transportation corridors through Burma and has built oil and natural gas pipelines connecting China to Burma’s Indian Ocean coast, where China seeks to control a key port. China has used regional countries’ membership in the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN) to its advantage—China’s financial support and close relationship with Cambodia has been pivotal to preventing joint ASEAN opposition to China’s land reclamation in the South China Sea. Finally, following the coup in Thailand, China has sought to move closer to the U.S. treaty ally, and has exceeded the United States in arms sales to Thailand, although the degree to which Thai-China ties have improved is uncertain.
Geopolitically, China desires stability and leverage along its 1,370 mile border with Burma where fighting between ethnic armed groups and Burma’s army has claimed the lives of Chinese citizens. China sees an opportunity to bypass its energy supply vulnerabilities in the Strait of Malacca by establishing transportation corridors through Burma and has built oil and natural gas pipelines connecting China to Burma’s Indian Ocean coast, where China seeks to control a key port. China has used regional countries’ membership in the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN) to its advantage—China’s financial support and close relationship with Cambodia has been pivotal to preventing joint ASEAN opposition to China’s land reclamation in the South China Sea. Finally, following the coup in Thailand, China has sought to move closer to the U.S. treaty ally, and has exceeded the United States in arms sales to Thailand, although the degree to which Thai-China ties have improved is uncertain.
China and Northeast Asia
Northeast Asia—encompassing China, Japan, North Korea, and South Korea—is the locus of some of the most pressing security challenges in Asia. Two of these countries—Japan and South Korea—are U.S. treaty allies. North Korea, on the other hand, is highly antagonistic to the United States and a threat to global peace and security.
Although Beijing increasingly is frustrated and concerned by Pyongyang’s missile and nuclear testing and escalatory rhetoric, China is North Korea’s top trading partner, most reliable supporter, and treaty ally. China is necessarily a key player in any significant international effort to manage the North Korean threat, and took some steps to strengthen international sanctions against North Korea in 2017. It is too soon to measure China’s compliance with the latest rounds of sanctions, which, if implemented fully, would significantly constrain the North Korean regime’s ability to fund its nuclear and conventional weapons programs. Given China’s lackluster record of previous sanctions enforcement and continued sanctions violations by Chinese companies exporting dual-use items to North Korea, however, the United States and the international community should keep their expectations low. China’s reluctance to assist with the U.S.-led effort to neutralize the North Korean threat is also driven by Beijing’s belief that Washington’s North Korea policy is designed to strengthen U.S. regional alliances and military posture to contain China.
China-South Korea relations are evidence of this belief. After years of generally positive bilateral relations buoyed by robust trade and cooperative efforts by the countries’ top leaders, the China-South Korea relationship took a negative turn starting in 2016 over the planned deployment of a U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense system to South Korea. China indicated its displeasure with this development by mounting a massive economic retaliation campaign against South Korea, causing millions of dollars in losses and forcing one South Korean company to cut back on operations in China. Comparing China’s harsh rhetorical response to THAAD and its lukewarm response to North Korea’s provocations, it appears Beijing finds U.S.-South Korea missile defense cooperation to be a greater threat to Chinese interests than a nuclear-armed North Korea. China has clearly signaled to South Korea that cooperation with the United States will be met with punishment from Beijing. This puts Seoul, which already struggles to balance its relations with Washington and Beijing, in a strategically difficult position, and will necessarily complicate U.S. efforts to enhance cooperation with South Korea going forward.
This is not a viagra 25mg very costly drug, but yet very effective. https://pdxcommercial.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/On-Site-Cheat-sheet.pdf order generic cialis One of the common side effects of this faulty habit are disastrous and, may ruin the entire life of the suffering person. Blood vessel surgery is recommended only when leaking vessels cause https://pdxcommercial.com/property/1105-portland-avenue-gladstone/ viagra online in india ED. This mean that your body will react in the same way. pdxcommercial.com cialis cost China-Japan relations continue to be strained as well, with the East China Sea dispute remaining the central flashpoint. Although tensions there have declined since their peak in 2012–2013, the dispute continued to simmer in 2017 with persistent Chinese maritime operations near the Senkaku Islands and sharply increasing Chinese air operations in the East China Sea.
In the near term, Chinese aggression toward Japan and economic coercion against South Korea seem to be driving both countries toward closer security cooperation with the United States. Prospects for enhanced South Korea-Japan security cooperation are less certain, however, and longstanding tensions between the two countries complicate U.S. efforts to evolve Northeast Asia’s security architecture from a “hub and spokes” model to a more integrated trilateral cooperative structure.
China and Taiwan
Cross-Strait relations entered a period of increased tension after President Tsai Ing-wen was elected in January 2016, as Beijing steadily increased pressure on Taiwan. Despite President Tsai’s cross-Strait policy of “maintaining the status quo,” Beijing has been displeased with her unwillingness to endorse the “one China” framework for cross-Strait relations (a 1992 framework Taipei and Beijing endorsed during the previous administration in Taiwan that acknowledges there is “one China,” but that allows each side to maintain its own interpretation of the meaning of “one China”). The measures Beijing is employing to pressure Taiwan include suspending official and semiofficial cross-Strait communication and meetings; establishing diplomatic relations with three of Taiwan’s former diplomatic partners (The Gambia, Sao Tome and Principe, and Panama); reducing the number of Chinese group tours to Taiwan and Chinese students who can attend Taiwan universities; refusing to facilitate repatriation to Taiwan of citizens accused of telecommunications fraud in countries with which Taiwan does not have diplomatic relations; and blocking Taiwan’s participation in certain international fora, such as the International Civil Aviation Organization and the UN World Health Assembly. A complicating factor in cross-Strait relations is Taiwan’s dependence on China-bound exports. China remains Taiwan’s largest trading partner, biggest export market, and top source of imports, giving Beijing significant economic leverage over Taipei. President Tsai has sought to reduce Taiwan’s reliance on China by diversifying Taiwan’s economic ties. Central to this effort is President Tsai’s New Southbound Policy, which seeks to strengthen trade, investment, people-to-people, and other links with countries in Southeast Asia, South Asia, and Oceania. The policy already has led to increased tourism to Taiwan, with the number of visitors from New Southbound Policy target countries increasing 28.6 percent in the first six months after the policy was enacted.
China’s military modernization program remains focused on deterring Taiwan from moving toward formal independence and preparing the Chinese military for a cross-Strait conflict. Faced with a growing threat from China’s military modernization, Taiwan has sought to enhance its own military capabilities in part by indigenously developing combat ships, aircraft, and weapons systems. Advanced antiship cruise missiles, air defense missiles, and fast attack and stealthy catamaran-style patrol ships are among the newest platforms and weapons systems Taiwan has produced. In 2017, Taiwan launched programs to build submarines and advanced jet trainers. Taiwan also seeks to enhance its military capabilities through the procurement of military equipment from the United States. In June 2017, the U.S. Department of State announced its approval of seven foreign military sales and one direct commercial sale to Taiwan valued at $1.4 billion, including AGM-154C joint stand-off weapon air-to-ground missiles and AGM-88B high-speed antiradiation missiles, among other items.
President Tsai has emphasized enhancing Taiwan’s economic relations with the United States as a top priority for her administration. Although there remain obstacles for U.S.-Taiwan trade (particularly the decade-long dispute over Taiwan’s ban on U.S. pork products), both Washington and Taipei remain committed to furthering their economic relationship. Beyond commercial and security ties, U.S.-Taiwan cooperation spans many other areas, including environmental protection, cybersecurity, education, public health, and science and technology. Taiwan’s robust democracy, civil society, and technology sector, and its vast expertise and experience in areas such as humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, make it a strong partner for the United States.
China and Hong Kong
In 2017, 20 years after Hong Kong’s handover from the United Kingdom to China, Beijing continued to erode the spirit of the “one country, two systems” policy that has guided its relationship with Hong Kong since 1997. (This policy grants Hong Kong and Macau the right to self-govern their economy and political system to a certain extent, excluding foreign affairs and defense.) The Chinese government increased its interference in the territory’s political affairs, becoming more pervasive in Hong Kong’s government and civil society. Several notable examples include Beijing’s use of legal measures to vacate the seats of six democratically-elected legislators for altering their oaths of office before taking office; its reported involvement in the apparent extralegal abduction of a Chinese billionaire from Hong Kong; and its active efforts to ensure Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor was selected as the territory’s new chief executive. Hong Kong’s rule of law, widely viewed as central to its unique status and a key distinguishing characteristic from the Mainland, is being challenged on many fronts. Freedom of expression in the territory—as guaranteed by China’s handover agreement with the UK and the Basic Law, Hong Kong’s mini constitution— also faces mounting challenges; these range from a crackdown on prodemocracy activists to pressure on the media, universities, and others to self-censor and conform to Beijing’s views.
As it has done in other aspects of Hong Kong’s politics and society, Beijing has become more active in asserting its presence in Hong Kong’s economy. For example, in 2017, Hong Kong-listed Chinese state-owned enterprises were ordered to include a formal role for the CCP in their articles of association, raising concerns among investors who feel the Chinese government is interfering in business operations. Integration of the mainland and Hong Kong economies continues to deepen, with the launch of the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect and the China-Hong Kong Bond Connect serving as the latest in a series of measures aimed at attracting global investors to China’s domestic markets. Hong Kong’s strong rule of law and economic openness have long made it an important destination for international trade and investment. However, some observers are beginning to question Hong Kong’s ability to maintain its status as Asia’s premier financial center if companies and individuals lose confidence in the territory’s rule of law, political autonomy, and other freedoms as they are eroded by Beijing.
Mainland China’s increasing encroachment on Hong Kong’s promised “high degree of autonomy” poses obstacles for the United States in carrying out its policy objectives in the territory. Hong Kong is a major destination and partner for U.S. trade and investment and plays a valuable role as a participant in important international economic organizations. In light of China’s recent intrusions into Hong Kong’s democratic institutions, some observers argue the territory is losing its unique characteristics that make it a close U.S. partner in the Asia Pacific. U.S. allies and partners in the region, particularly Taiwan, also are closely watching these developments with unease. The Mainland’s adherence to its commitments regarding Hong Kong is necessary to ensure continued strong ties between the United States and the territory.
The Report Concludes Tomorrow.