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Category: Quick Analysis
The debate over America’s human presence in space has begun.
Since the start of the Obama Administration, NASA’s emphasis has altered dramatically, as financial support for exploration and space operations, including human flight, has been slashed by 7.9%. Meanwhile, earth science, including both legitimate research as well as questionable endeavors primarily designed to bolster the President’s climate change agenda, experienced a 41% increase. A General Accounting Office study found that “NASA had not matched resources to requirements” for programs related to human space flight.
In addition to funding shifts, ideological changes were imposed as well. NASA chief Charles Bolden made a bizarre remark . in 2010 that one of NASA’s chief goals was to reach out to Moslems.
Critics have not hidden their disdain for the course NASA has been given under the current White House. John L. Casey, a former White House space policy advisor, stated in a recent exclusive interview on the Vernuccio/Novak Report that NASA was engaging in “data doctoring” to support global warming theory advocates and essentially ignoring its core mission.
Human space flight was essentially removed from NASA’s short-term goals in 2010 when Mr. Obama cancelled the Constellation program,after prematurely ending the space shuttle program. The U.S. remains dependent on Russia to place astronauts in space. While underfunded work very slowly proceeds on plans for the future Orion crewed vehicle and the related Space Launch System, both are essentially updates on concepts originally designed in the late 1960’s and do not represent a significant path for a return to American preeminence in space. Neither of these efforts will actually be capable of putting astronauts in space, if ever, until after the Obama Administration leaves office.
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The White House counters criticism by stating their support for NASA’s manned space efforts, emphasizing its support ($438.8 increase requested) for development of commercially operated spacecraft, part of a modest $519 million hike in the agency’s overall budget. However, the Orion and Space Launch System programs, which are the only significant NASA efforts to restore America’s ability to put astronauts into space, would endure a combined $2.8 billion reduction in the 2016 budget.
House Science Committee Chair Lamar Smith (R-Texas), quoted in Spacenews, noted “The President’s words mean nothing if crucial priorities such as SLS and Orion aren’t given the funding they need in his budget request.”
Following the Republican capture of the Senate in the 2014 elections, Senator Ted Cruz (R-Tx) was named as chair of the Subcommittee on Space, Science, and Competitiveness. He is seeking to re-emphasize NASA’s original mission, and noted, at the start of hearings on NASA’s 2016 budget:
“As we begin the process of putting a road map together for the future of NASA there is one vital question that this committee should examine. Should NASA focus primarily inwards or outwards beyond lower-Earth orbit? Since the end of the last administration we have seen a disproportionate increase in the amount of federal funds that have been allocated to the Earth Science program at the expense of and compared to Exploration and Space Operations, Planetary Science, Heliophysics and Astrophysics which I believe are all rooted in exploration and should be central to the core mission of NASA.”
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US Economy Still Weak
Research by The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s February 2015 Business Leaders Survey, which includes an economically vital area of the nation, “indicates that activity in the region’s service sector leveled off recently. The survey’s headline business activity index fell 15 points to 0.8. After rising to a level just above zero last month, the business climate index gave up those gains, signaling that, on balance, respondents viewed the business climate as worse than normal. …The prices paid index climbed 12 points to 51.5, pointing to steeper input price increases, while the prices received index dropped six points to 6.2, signifying a slower pace of selling price increases… After rising out of negative territory last month, the business climate index gave up its gains, falling nine points to -8.4, indicating that, on balance, firms viewed the business climate as worse than normal.”
Generation X, which is a key sector of the American economic picture, is also not doing well. According to the Federal Reserve of St. Louis, The average household debt of the 1970 Gen X cohort was $142,077 in the first quarter of 2014 (that is, approximately at age 44), while the average household debt of the 1956 baby-boomer cohort was $88,553, adjusted for inflation, in the first quarter of 2000 (when this cohort would also have been age 44). This represents about 60 percent more debt for the 1970 cohort compared to the 1956 cohort. Meanwhile, average real household income of the 1970 cohort was only about 5 percent higher than that of the 1956 cohort in the most recent data.
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William C. Dudley, President and Chief Executive officer of the NY Fed, also delivered worrisome news. “In 2010, aggregate outstanding student loan balances surpassed credit card indebtedness, and in 2013 eclipsed a trillion dollars. During the historic household deleveraging that took place between 2008 and 2013, student debt bucked the trend, and was the only form of household credit that continued to increase each year.” The taxpayers are the final source on the hook for these loans, which, thanks to the continuously slow economy and the lack of suitable employment for college graduates, may present the next great economic bubble
Research by The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s February 2015 Business Leaders Survey, which includes an economically vital area of the nation, “indicates that activity in the region’s service sector leveled off recently. The survey’s headline business activity index fell 15 points to 0.8. After rising to a level just above zero last month, the business climate index gave up those gains, signaling that, on balance, respondents viewed the business climate as worse than normal. …The prices paid index climbed 12 points to 51.5, pointing to steeper input price increases, while the prices received index dropped six points to 6.2, signifying a slower pace of selling price increases… After rising out of negative territory last month, the business climate index gave up its gains, falling nine points to -8.4, indicating that, on balance, firms viewed the business climate as worse than normal.”
Generation X, which is a key sector of the American economic picture, is also not doing well. According to the Federal Reserve of St. Louis, The average household debt of the 1970 Gen X cohort was $142,077 in the first quarter of 2014 (that is, approximately at age 44), while the average household debt of the 1956 baby-boomer cohort was $88,553, adjusted for inflation, in the first quarter of 2000 (when this cohort would also have been age 44). This represents about 60 percent more debt for the 1970 cohort compared to the 1956 cohort. Meanwhile, average real household income of the 1970 cohort was only about 5 percent higher than that of the 1956 cohort in the most recent data.
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William C. Dudley, President and Chief Executive officer of the NY Fed, also delivered worrisome news. “In 2010, aggregate outstanding student loan balances surpassed credit card indebtedness, and in 2013 eclipsed a trillion dollars. During the historic household deleveraging that took place between 2008 and 2013, student debt bucked the trend, and was the only form of household credit that continued to increase each year.” The taxpayers are the final source on the hook for these loans, which, thanks to the continuously slow economy and the lack of suitable employment for college graduates, may present the next great economic bubble
The United States is in more peril from military threats than at any time since the British burned the White House in the War of 1812. This is the result of both the de-funding of the armed forces, and the extraordinary threats from Russia, China, and other aggressive powers.
According to the Government Accountability Office,
“Over the past year, the overall size of DOD’s major defense acquisition program portfolio decreased, from 80 programs to 78, while the estimated cost has decreased by $7.6 billion. The size and cost of the portfolio is currently the lowest in a decade.”
While Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea continue to engage in massive arms buildups, the United States continues to act as if threats are decreasing. A recent article by the House Armed Services Committee member Rep. Randy Forbes and the American Enterprise Institutes’ Jim Talent, a former U.S. Senator, published in Real Clear Defense , outlined the critical state of the military.
“-Under sequestration, the Army will be cut to 420,000 soldiers, its smallest size since 1941. Training will be reduced for most units to only platoon and company-level exercises. Modernization will be reduced, forcing the service to rely on equipment purchased during the Reagan build-up;
“-Today’s Air Force inventory of fighters, bombers, among others, is the oldest and smallest in the history of the service. Less than half of the service’s combat squadrons are fully ready today. Under the full impact of sequestration, readiness will plummet and the number of fighter, bomber and surveillance units will be reduced again by half. Also affected will be the Air Force’s ability to provide strike, close-air support and surveillance to protect a more vulnerable smaller army;
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“- The size of the fleet will shrink, per the Chief of Naval Operations, to a regional force of about 250 ships, possibly lower. By 2020, US naval forces assigned to the Western Pacific will total only one-third to one-fourth of the size of China’s growing modern fleet which will be between 325 to 350 ships. Moreover, the ability to reinforce that diminished fleet, as measured by the Navy’s contingency response force, will continue to decline as readiness continues to decline;
“- The Commandant of the Marine Corps, testified on February 26 that one half of his non-deployed units suffer from shortfalls in personnel, equipment and training under the current limited impact of sequestration. The full impact of sequestration, he explained, would force the Marine Corps “to divest ourselves of people …or to stop training.”
According to a National Defense Panel Review
“…the defense budget cuts mandated by the Budget Control Act (BCA) of 2011, coupled with the additional cuts and constraints on defense management under the law’s sequestration provision, constitute a serious strategic misstep on the part of the United States. Not only have they caused significant investment shortfalls in U.S. military readiness and both present and future capabilities, they have prompted our current and potential allies and adversaries to question our commitment and resolve. Unless reversed, these shortfalls will lead to a high risk force in the near future. That in turn will lead to an America that is not only less secure but also far less prosperous. In this sense, these cuts are ultimately self-defeating. The effectiveness of America’s other tools for global influence, such as diplomacy and economic engagement, are critically intertwined with and dependent upon the perceived strength, presence, and commitment of U.S. … the capabilities and capacities rightly called for in the 2014 Quadrennial Defense Review… clearly exceed the budget resources made available …. This gap is disturbing if not dangerous in light of the fact that global threats and challenges are rising, including a troubling pattern of territorial assertiveness and regional intimidation on China’s part, the recent aggression of Russia in Ukraine, nuclear proliferation on the part of North Korea and Iran, a serious insurgency in Iraq that both reflects and fuels the broader sectarian conflicts in the region, the civil war in Syria, and civil strife in the larger Middle East and throughout Africa.”
Both the White House and the media continue to ignore this most dire of all crises facing the nation. The consequences will be inevitably grave.
U.S. Chamber of Commerce President and CEO Tom Donohue voiced both warnings and recommendations for the troubled American economy in his organizations’ 2015 State of American Business Address. Below are key excerpts:
We can’t forget that 17.7 million Americans are still unemployed, underemployed, or have given up looking for work. Participation in the workforce stands at 62.7%, the lowest since 1978, reflecting a significant level of discouragement.
“Current policies have eroded our economy’s long-term potential rate of growth,” said Donohue:
It would be a serious mistake to think that higher taxes, a bigger debt, and more regulations can deliver more growth, jobs, and prosperity. They will deliver less.
Here are 13 issues from Donohue’s speech that Washington can address to encourage stronger and deeper economic growth:
- Trade.
The administration is negotiating two historic trade agreements—the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership. The Chamber has supported these initiatives from the very beginning.
The president has said that he is committed to finishing the job on both pacts, but he’s going to need Trade Promotion Authority from the Congress to do it. He must really fight for it, especially before members of his own party. Enacting TPA so that we can finish these agreements is one of our top legislative priorities for this year.
- Energy.
Even with the recent decline in energy prices, abundant domestic energy still stands out as an extraordinary opportunity to generate millions of jobs, billions in revenues for government, and trillions in new investment while securing affordable energy for American consumers.
Congress and the administration should take the needed steps to unleash this energy revolution in an environmentally responsible way—and we should reform export rules so that we can sell this energy when appropriate around the world.
- The Internet.
We recognize that the issue of net neutrality divides the tech community, but there can be no neutrality as far as the Chamber is concerned. We oppose efforts to regulate the Internet as if it were a 20th century public utility.
The Internet is one of the greatest drivers of prosperity and innovation in our economy. We need to develop better and smarter frameworks for data security and sharing—but the system must remain open, flexible, and innovative—and excessive government regulation of the Internet would just kill that goose.
- Infrastructure.
We’re asking Congress to pass a long-term highway and mass transit bill with full funding—along with appropriate reforms. We must fully fund our aviation and water systems as well.
- Immigration Reform.
We are renewing our call for commonsense measures that not only better secure our borders but also provide the American economy with the workers it needs at all skill levels, improve the employment verification system, and deal with undocumented immigrants.
- Regulatory Reform.
Business recognizes the need for smart regulations. But with a $2 trillion price tag in compliance costs imposed by a virtual fourth branch of government, it’s time to bring the system into the 21st century.
The Chamber will launch an all-out effort to pass three regulatory reform bills that already enjoy significant bipartisan support in both the House and the Senate. The bills would modernize the process by which new rules are considered and promulgated, bring transparency and accountability to the now abusive process known as “sue and settle,” and streamline the permitting process once regulations are in place.
- EPA.
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While we strongly support technological solutions to address greenhouse gas emissions, we do not believe that regulation of these emissions through the Clean Air Act is appropriate or workable.
- Health Care.
We support congressional efforts to restore the 40-hour workweek to define who must be covered under the employer health care mandate. We’ll work to repeal taxes such as the medical device tax, the Cadillac tax, and the health insurance tax.
- Financial Regulation.
We need a modern regulatory system that both drives financial stability and encourages capital formation.
The Chamber has supported positive steps to strengthen corporate governance. However, we will continue to vigorously oppose using the proxy to advance special interest agendas. We will also continue to push for reform of secretive proxy advisory firms.
The Chamber will also seek further targeted fixes to Dodd-Frank. For example, the Financial Stability Oversight Council is considering overdue and necessary changes to its systemically important designation process.
In addition, both the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and the Treasury Department’s Office of Financial Research ought to be placed under the appropriations process.
- Tax Reform.
The United States has the highest corporate tax rate in the developed world. We adhere to a system of “world-wide” taxation discarded by most other major countries. As a result, American businesses pay taxes twice, first to the foreign country in which they do business and then to Uncle Sam after they bring their profits home.
And since 28 million businesses pay their taxes as individuals, we also need reform at the same time on the individual side of the code. We need to end the bias against investment and spur small business startups, which have been lagging for a protracted period of time yet are absolutely critical to new job growth.
Republican leaders and the president all say that tax reform will be a priority in 2015. The Chamber plans to be at the table—on the theory that if you are not at the table, then you are on the menu. We will encourage genuine efforts to create a simpler, fairer, pro-growth tax system. We will not support an approach that uses tax reform as an excuse to engineer another big tax increase on the American business community.
- Debt, Deficits, and Entitlement Reform.
More than anything else, the nation’s massive debt is being driven by entitlement costs. By 2024, federal spending will be $5.8 trillion, and more than 76% of that will go to mandatory programs plus interest on the national debt. That leaves less than 24% for national defense, important domestic programs, and everything else.
America’s leaders need to start telling the American people the truth. The entitlement crisis is an entirely predictable crisis. It demands action and leadership without further delay.
- Legal Reform.
America still has the costliest legal system in the world.
Even more disturbing, America’s enforcement system has turned into a shakedown operation. Enforcement officials find a company that may or may not have done something wrong, threaten its managers with commercial ruin, and then force them to pay an enormous fine to drop—or not file—the charges.
Our agenda includes curbing these excesses, plus reforming legal systems in key states and jurisdictions, preserving the availability of arbitration, passing the FACT Act to help prevent fraudulent asbestos claims, and challenging foreign governments that are foolishly considering the adoption of American-style class action lawsuits.
- Education.
We must ramp up efforts to reform public schools—to toughen the standards and measure them against prior years so that we know when students are falling behind. We also need to remove bad teachers and pay good teachers more, create more innovative charter schools, and ensure that parental choice is an option not just in wealthy communities but in all communities.
A move towards modernity in Egypt
The Egyptian government, under President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, is creating a radically different Middle Eastern government, one that directly combats terrorism and advocates a more modern role for Islamic nations. Strangely, the Obama administration isn’t pleased, citing Cairo’s harsh treatment of the radical Moslem Brotherhood and other opposition voices. While criticizing el-Sisi, the White House remained relatively restrained on massive human rights violations by the virulently anti-American Iranian regime.
The moves by el-Sisi are part of his direct confrontation against terrorist influences within his nation. He has closed down Mosques that reportedly are little more than centers for Islamic extremists. He has called for a reformation of the Moslem religion’s proclivity for violence and intolerance.
The Egyptian President has moved to improve his nation’s fragile economy, addressing energy concerns, and initiating a $4 billion project to enhance the Suez Canal. Perhaps his most spectacular effort has been the “Capitalcairo” initiative, a project to build a new urban environment that will be a center for commerce, government administration, and cosmopolitan living.
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According to the Egyptian government, “With over 10,000 km of boulevards, avenues and streets, the city will be pedestrian-friendly. It will have vibrant recreational spaces to bring people together. It will be buzzing with life day and night. Cairo Capital is a momentous endeavour to build national spirit, foster consensus, provide for long-term sustainable growth and address various issues faced by Egypt through a new city, which will create more places to live, work and visit.The masterplan is to create a global city with smart infrastructure for Egypt’s future, which will provide a multitude of economic opportunities and offer a distinct quality of life.”
The most notable aspect of this project is an apparent commitment to modernity. Illustrations portray a population devoid of the extremist restrictions on female dress.
As the New York Analysis of Policy & Government has reported previously, the rapid and intense increase in threats to the national security of the United States has been largely un-addressed by the White House and under-reported by the major media. Two days ago, NORAD‘s commander testified before the U.S. Senate. We present the key part of his comments.
STATEMENT OF ADMIRAL WILLIAM E. GORTNEY, UNITED STATES NAVY COMMANDER UNITED STATES NORTHERN COMMAND AND NORTH AMERICAN AEROSPACE DEFENSE COMMAND BEFORE THE SENATE ARMED SERVICES COMMITTEE MARCH 12, 2015
The past year has marked a notable increase in Russian military assertiveness on the world stage, including in the approaches to the homelands. Russian heavy bombers flew more out-of-area patrols in 2014 than in any year since the Cold War. We have also witnessed improved interoperability between Russian long-range aviation and other elements of the Russian military, including air and maritime intelligence collection platforms positioned to monitor NORAD responses. While these patrols serve a training function for Russian air crews, 5 some are clearly intended to underscore Moscow’s global reach and communicate its displeasure with Western policies, particularly with regard to Ukraine. Meanwhile, Russia is progressing toward its goal of deploying long-range, conventionally-armed cruise missiles with ever increasing stand-off launch distances on its heavy bombers, submarines and surface combatants, augmenting the Kremlin’s toolkit of flexible deterrent options short of the nuclear threshold. Should these trends continue, over time NORAD will face increased risk in our ability to defend North America against Russian air, maritime, and cruise missile threats.
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We remain vigilant against states that may seek to put North America at risk with ballistic missiles. Today we are focused primarily on North Korea and Iran, as both seek to advance their nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities. North Korea has successfully test detonated three nuclear devices and, through its space program, has demonstrated many of the technologies required for an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) that could target the continental United States. Meanwhile, North Korean military parades have showcased the new KN08 road-mobile ICBM. When deployed, this system will complicate our ability to provide warning and defend against an attack. Iran has likewise committed considerable resources to enhancing its ballistic missile capabilities and has already placed another satellite into orbit this year using a new booster that could serve as a demonstrator for ICBM technologies.
Despite international condemnation and sanctions, Iran has failed to cooperate fully with the International Atomic Energy Agency to resolve all outstanding concerns regarding its nuclear program, particularly those concerning its possible military dimensions. While we remain hopeful that current negotiations with the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council plus Germany (P5+1) will lead to a 6 diplomatic solution which addresses the international community’s concerns regarding Iran’s nuclear program comprehensively and in a durable fashion, we will continue to remain vigilant.
Seniors slammed by Fed policy
At a recent meeting between the Federal Reserve and a number of concerned citizens groups, the issue of how the Fed’s policy of hiding the nation’s economic crisis by artificially keeping interest rates low was raised by Jim Martin, who chairs the 60+ Association.
Seniors have had a tough time during the past few years. Martin noted that “Social Security cost of living increases have added up to a meager 8% since 2009, while the cost of medical care can increase 8% in a single year. Seniors are paying much more to light their homes, cook their food, and keep warm, and food prices are soaring. A few examples, since 2009 the cost of beef has risen 35%, dairy products are up 16%, seafood is up 20%, and most produce staples are up in the double digits.”
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