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Warthog Lives to Fight Again

Defense One reports that the U.S. Air Force may be forced to postpone any immediate plans to retire the A-10 Warthog attack plane.

The debate over the A-10 concerns more than just a type of aircraft.  In many ways, it is a microcosm of how policy makers envision future security threats to the U.S.  On one side is the White House, which has generally promulgated the concept that large-scale nation vs. nation warfare is a thing of the past, and the type of weaponry necessary for conventional combat operations such as destroying tanks are an unnecessary expense.  On the other side are those who point to the dramatic conventional arms buildups of Russia and China.

Part of those two nation’s conventional buildup has been developing new and powerful tanks. Moscow’s “Armata” tank will enter service in 2020, according to the Diplomat.  China Daily reports that Beijing’s VT-4 is the equal of its Russian counterpart. Both seek to sell their new combat vehicles internationally, as well as equipping their own armed forces with them. “Production lines of tanks have been closed in Western countries for a long time, so among large tank makers, only China and Russia have such facilities, which means if an international client wants to buy a new tank, it can only choose between China and Russia”

In addition to being a contentious issue between the USAF and the US Army, the aircraft’s fate pitted Congress against the White House.  For the past two years, the President’s Executive Budget sought to retire the Warthog, but Congress fought to keep it alive.

The Warthog, an extremely durable aircraft designed to attack tanks and other ground targets, has been targeted for retirement on a number of occasions by the USAF, which prefers to use scarce resources for other priorities such as air to air fighters and bombers.  Estimates are that the USAF could save up to $4.2 billion by retiring the Warthog, according to Breaking Defense.

During the Obama Administration, defense spending has been severely curtailed, and attempts to retire the Warthog have been part of that. Breaking Defense quoted Dustin Walker, Senate Armed Services Committee spokesman earlier this year: “The A-10 continues to prove its enduring value as a close air support platform against ISIS in Iraq and Syria. The A-10 is also deploying in support of Operation Atlantic Resolve, reassuring our NATO allies and partners in the face of continued Russian aggression in Ukraine…Senator McCain continues to believe this administration’s attempt to prematurely retire the A-10 fleet without fielding a suitable replacement is folly. And he will do everything in his power to oppose it.”

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One problem is the aircraft, as mandated by law, is assigned to the Air Force,  but its primary mission is one that belongs to the Army, the destruction of enemy armor and protecting ground forces.

According to Defense One, “Putting the A-10’s retirement plans on hold is a key policy shift that will be laid out next month when the Pentagon submits its 2017 budget request to Congress, said Pentagon officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the Obama Administration’s spending plan before its official release.”

Its role is not, by any stretch of the imagination, obsolete. Indeed, it may well be needed now more than ever, and not just in the current fight against ISIS.  As the NEW YORK ANALYSIS OF POLICY & GOVERNMENT reported earlier, most American tanks have been withdrawn from Europe.  The White House has also, inappropriately, sought to close down the very last factory that manufactures tanks, to make the job complete. For the United States to continue its NATO obligation to defend against the increasingly likely possibility of threats of Russian aggression , the A-10 would be a key aspect of providing a credible deterrence.

Seth McCormick Lynn, writing for the Princeton Journal of Public and International Affairs , notes:There is no indication that the U.S. military has seen the last of conventional warfare…conventional threats represent a far greater danger to U.S. national security than do irregular threats…U.S. conventional capabilities have deteriorated significantly, making these threats even more severe.”

The A-10’s cost about $18.8 million each. F-35’s, which are a multi-role aircraft that would to some extent undertake A-10’s role should the Warthog be retired, can cost about $178 million each.

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Is the Iran Nuclear Deal Already Dead?

Is the Iran nuclear deal already dead?

Iran apparently violated a Security Council resolution in October when it tested a medium range missile. In December, it again conducted a prohibited test.

Some Congressional leaders believe that the tests violate at least one of the terms of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the nuclear deal between Iran and the P5+1 countries, and indicate that Tehran has no serious intention of  fulfilling its obligations under the terms of the deal. President Obama has refused, however, to re-impose sanctions.

The White House continues to advocate its view of the agreements benefits:

“Iran would need two key elements to construct a uranium bomb: enough highly enriched uranium to produce enough material to construct a uranium bomb and tens of thousands of centrifuges. Currently, Iran has a uranium stockpile to create 8 to ten nuclear bombs. But thanks to this nuclear deal, Iran must reduce its stockpile of uranium by 98%, and will keep its level of uranium enrichment at 3.67% — significantly below the enrichment level needed to create a bomb.

“Iran also needs tens of thousands of centrifuges to create highly enriched uranium for a bomb. Right now, Iran has nearly 20,000 centrifuges between their Natanz and Fordow uranium enrichment facilities. But under this deal, Iran must reduce its centrifuges to 6,104 for the next ten years. No enrichment will be allowed at the Fordow facility at all, and the only centrifuges Iran will be allowed to use are their oldest and least efficient models.”

Despite the President’s reassurances, however, the deficiencies in the deal are deeply troubling to many U.S. lawmakers, international observers, and arms control experts. In a stunning report entitled “A Nuclear Deal With Iran: Managing the Consequences,” a task force formed by the American Foreign Policy Council   (AFPC)  concludes that:

“[A] broad spectrum of national security practitioners, military experts, scientists and analysts concur that the deal is woefully deficient in several respects. The list of these deficiencies is long. Some, like significant shortfalls in verification and monitoring, preclude confidence that Iran will abide by the terms of the agreement in the future, or that the international community will know promptly if it does not. Likewise of concern is that the JCPOA [Joint Comprehensive Plan Of Action] weakens the global nonproliferation regime by setting a precedent for what counts as a “peaceful” nuclear program that will have effects well beyond the Middle East.”
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The difference in opinion comes down to this: The White House likes the deal because, on paper, it delays Iran’s acquisition of nuclear arms for many years. Critics state that, based on precedent and current actions, it is clear that Iran has no intention of living up to its obligations under the deal, and will gain billions in funds it can use both to further weapons development and support terrorist activities.

This excerpt from AFPC’s report summarizes what, upon analysis, are the very real and substantial concerns about the nuclear deal: JCPOA, upon implementation, will empower a range of Iranian activities deeply inimical to the strategic interests and security of the United States and its allies and international partners.

These strategic, political and economic problems will include:

Expanded Iranian resources. Under the parameters of the JCPOA, Iran is poised to receive massive sanctions relief and unfrozen assets in the near term: an estimated $100 billion or more after a perfunctory six-month verification period. The scale of this economic assistance is staggering. It represents a quarter or more of Iran’s total annual GDP, which amounted to $415 billion in 2014 …The proportional impact of such relief to the Islamic Republic is comparable to an infusion into the American economy (currently estimated at $16.7 trillion) of roughly $4.2 trillion, approximately five times the economic stimulus that stabilized the U.S. financial sector following the 2008 global economic crisis.

Moreover, these funds will invariably be augmented by the benefits of post-sanctions trade between Iran and potential trading partners in Europe and Asia, which now appear eager to expand their economic ties to the Islamic Republic. White House officials have expressed their hope that its unprecedented windfall will be used by the Iranian regime overwhelmingly to improve domestic conditions and strengthen its economy. Even if Iran does spend the lion’s share of sanctions relief in this fashion, however, the sheer volume of funds to be unblocked means that the Iranian regime will nonetheless be able to significantly augment its expenditures on several fronts of concern to U.S. strategic interests.

Terrorism financing. The Islamic Republic, which was first formally designated as a state sponsor of terrorism by the Reagan administration in 1984, still maintains its status as the world’s most active backer of terrorist groups. The scope of this material support is extensive, estimated by the U.S. Treasury Department several years ago to be in the billions of dollars annually.

More recently, a study by the Congressional Research Service found Iranian spending on these activities to range from $3.5 billion to $16 billion annually. These expenses include, inter alia, between $100 and $200 million per annum to Lebanon’s Hezbollah militia; tens of millions of dollars annually to the Palestinian Hamas movement and; the entire annual operating budget of the smaller Palestinian Islamic Jihad (estimated at some $2 million). That these expenditures have continued unabated, despite the growing adverse impact of U.S. and international sanctions on the Iranian economy in recent years, illustrate that terrorism support – euphemistically termed “export of the revolution” by the Iranian regime – represents a cardinal regime priority. With extensive sanctions relief now on the horizon, it would be prudent for policymakers to expect this support to grow significantly…

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Big Government Hurts Middle Class

How much interference in their daily lives will Americans tolerate from increasingly powerful government, especially when that interference results in a reduced quality of life?

The Foundation for Economic Education notes:

“Government in America was never supposed to engage in the multitude of activities that it does today. When the United States gained its independence more than 200 years ago, the founding fathers envisioned a national government with explicit and restricted responsibilities. These responsibilities pertained mainly to protecting the security of the nation and ensuring “domestic tranquility,” which meant preserving public safety. Especially in the realm of domestic affairs the founders foresaw very limited government interference in the daily lives of its citizens.”

The Institute for Policy Innovation outlines the challenge:

“We have to put Big Government back within its Constitutional restraints because Big Government has led to the establishment of a Government Class that lives at the expense and off the backs of the productive private sector. And when you allow a ruling class to live better than you but at your expense, you are on the way to losing your freedom. …And what happens when we dare suggest that they should rein in their spending by a couple of pennies out of a dollar? They punish us by releasing illegal immigrant felons from prison, by delaying our flights, by closing government buildings and by threatening us with restricted services. This is not the behavior of public servants. This is the behavior of a Ruling Class, punishing its subjects for questioning its authority. And these are but the first few skirmishes.”

As America’s governments, both on the national and state levels have grown increasingly large, powerful, and intrusive, the middle class has suffered accordingly. As the New York Analysis previously reported, A Pew Research Center review  notes that “Middle-income Americans are no longer the nation’s economic majority…The share of U.S. aggregate household income held by middle-income households has plunged, from 62% in 1970 to 43% in 2014.”  According to the U.S. Census Bureau   In 2014, real median household income was 6.5 percent lower than in 2007…The 2014 poverty rate increased for two groups: people aged 25 and older with at least a bachelor’s degree.
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This discloses another reason for the declining fortunate of the middle class:  “Liberals across the country supported the misnamed Affordable Care Act (aka Obamacare). The law’s mandates have made health coverage more expensive for both individuals and businesses…when benefit costs rise, employers cut wages. Empirical research confirms this prediction. “ Research from the Heritage Foundation  concurs.

How have “Progressive” ideas affected average Americans? “The curse of the U.S. economy today is the downward trend in “take-home pay, Heritage  notes.  “In the 50 years since that the war on poverty began, U.S. taxpayers have spent over $22 trillion on anti-poverty programs. Adjusted for inflation, this spending (which does not include Social Security or Medicare) is three times the cost of all U.S. military wars since the American Revolution. Yet progress against poverty, as measured by the U.S. Census Bureau, has been minimal, and in terms of President Johnson’s main goal of reducing the ‘causes’ rather than the mere ‘consequences’ of poverty, the War on Poverty has failed completely.”

Scholar Charles Murray believes that “Aspects of America’s legal system have become lawless, for reasons that are inextricably embedded in the use of law for social agendas.

The federal government has a debt of over $18 and a half trillion, Social Security is heading towards insolvency, the nation’s infrastructure remains in poor condition, and the military is significantly underfunded.

While Washington’s spending concentrates on failed poverty programs, (spending on poverty programs has reached its highest level under President Obama) real median income of working Americans has declined.

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Independent Presidential Bid Challenges Democrat Leaders

Michael Bloomberg, who served three terms as mayor of New York City, is actively exploring a run for the presidency.  His entry into the race has the potential of dramatically altering an already chaotic campaign season, and could have a lasting effect on U.S. politics for years after.

Unlike prior third party candidates, he stands a substantial chance of producing a successful effort. Similar to Trump, Bloomberg can afford a self-financed campaign, and he has made it known that he could commit up to a billion dollars to finance a run for the White House.

The 73 year old billionaire entrepreneur and philanthropist would run as an independent, a position he has experience in.  A Democrat and lifelong supporter of causes many would identify as leaning towards the left, he nevertheless first ran for NYC’s top spot as a Republican, later changing his registration to independent.

As mayor, Bloomberg governed essentially as a mid-century liberal.  He raised taxes more than any of his predecessors, reduced the size of the police force, and pursued a variety of nanny-state goals such as attempts to prohibit certain outlets from selling large-size soda drinks.  He sought to impose tolls on private vehicles traveling from residential sections of the city to the main business district, and imposed traffic rules that some labelled bizarre. On the other hand, he avoided large and expensive leftist programs, and worked to balance the budget. He also broke with  the traditional hard-left, progressive pandering to the public school bureaucracy, and had some success in bringing the notoriously self-indulgent NYC school system (which places the needs of unions ahead of that of students) under at least limited control.

All of which positions him as something the nation has not seen for some time, a traditional Democrat, despite his periodic affiliation with both Republican and independent registration. The hard-left, pacifist, neo-socialism of the current leadership of the Democrat Party has left many wondering whether America’s older political party has abandoned its core membership.

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That, of course, leads to a fascinating speculation.  One of the original contenders for the Democrat nomination this year was James Webb, a former Democrat senator from Virginia. Webb is a far more traditional Democrat than any of the current candidates for the party’s nomination. He is generally considered an advocate of a strong defense policy.  In his own words, his candidacy pursued “a fresh approach to solving the problems that confront us and too often unnecessarily divide us. We need to shake the hold of these shadow elites on our political process. Our elected officials need to get back to the basics of good governance and to remember that their principal obligations are to protect our national interests abroad and to ensure a level playing field here at home, especially for those who otherwise have no voice in the corridors of power.” Should Bloomberg decide to join forces and establish a Bloomberg-Webb ticket, many Democrats currently ignored by their party’s pacifist leadership could find a candidacy to support.

Bloomberg might also attract those frustrated with the depressed state of employment growth. Despite the needs and interests of union members, who have been bedrock supporters of Democrat candidates, the environmental and international trade policies of Obama, Clinton, Sanders and O’Malley harshly disregard the need for employment security and wage growth for working men and women. West Virginia coal miners and pipeline construction workers across the nation have been particularly hard-hit.

The former Mayor may also have an appeal to minority voters. Ironically, considering that Mr. Obama is the first African American president, the support of black voters for the Democrats has been severely tested by party policies, particularly in the area of immigration.  The current White House tolerance for illegal immigration has hit inner city minority youth with particular severity, as they face massive competition for entry-level jobs from those entering the nation unlawfully, eager to take those starter positions at salaries below that which native-born youth would find acceptable.

Bloomberg would have to make a decision no later than March to move ahead with a campaign.

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Fundamental Weakness in U.S. Economy

There is growing evidence that the fundamental underpinnings of the U.S. economy are weak.

The indicators are significant.  The Federal Reserve  reports that Industrial production declined 0.4 percent in December. The decrease for total industrial production in November was larger than previously reported. For the fourth quarter as a whole, industrial production fell at an annual rate of 3.4 percent. Manufacturing output edged down in December. Mining production decreased 0.8 percent in December for its fourth consecutive monthly decline. At 106.0 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production in December was 1.8 percent below its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector decreased 0.4 percentage point in December to 76.5 percent, a rate that is 3.6 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2014) average.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis disclosed that the latest numbers for the U.S. Balance of Trade in goods and services indicated a deficit of $42.4 billion, meaning that foreign nations sold far more to the U.S. than America sold to them. “Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $25.2 billion, or 5.5 percent, from the same period in 2014. Exports decreased $99.0 billion or 4.6 percent. Imports decreased $73.7 billion or 2.8 percent…Year-over-year, the average goods and services deficit increased $1.2 billion from the three months ending in November 2014.

The poor performance of the economy is reflected in the jobs picture. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics the seasonally adjusted number of Americans 16 and over filing for unemployment in Dec. 0f 2014 was 147,190, but in December of 2015, it was 149,929. In addition, initial jobless claims increased by 10,000 in the January 10—January 16 period, the highest level in half a year.  Marketwatch notes that “initial claims have risen more than 14% after touching a post-recession low of 256,000 in early October.”

Writing in the Washington Times, Donald Lambro warns that the U.S. is headed for another recession.  “Much of the major economic data suggests we’re moving in that direction…Clearly our economy is slowing down and economists are forecasting that fourth quarter growth in 2015 will be down significantly…All the telltale signs are there. Consumers aren’t buying as they used to, even with rock bottom oil prices and a gas tank of regular costing less than $2 a gallon. Yet retail sales fell in December at the height of the Christmas buying season. A New York Times headline last week put it this way: ‘Retail Sales Were Lackluster in December, Signaling Fragile Economy.’

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Bloomberg notes that “Investment managers are warning that markets probably have further to fall …The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will drop another 10 percent to 1,650.” That projected is mirrored by the International Business Times  Projections for 2016 are cloudy, with some prominent economists warning of an imminent U.S. recession and others predicting smooth sailing ahead.”

There is little reason to believe that direct Washington spending can or will stimulate the economy.  President Obama’s $831 billion stimulus package–The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009—accomplished little, and the nearly bankrupt federal government doesn’t have the resources for another attempt. The national debt, which skyrocketed under the Obama Administration, is nearing $19 trillion, and will grow even larger. The Congressional Budget Office  predicts that the federal budget will also be severely stressed in the coming year. “In 2016, the federal budget deficit will increase… If current laws generally remained unchanged, the deficit would grow over the next 10 years, and by 2026 it would be considerably larger than its average over the past 50 years… Debt held by the public would also grow significantly from its already high level.”

The central question is how the generally robust American economy descended to its current condition, and why it continues to exhibit weakness. Similar to the 2007 recession, which was caused by decades of a misguided government legislation  that mandated high-risk loans which eventually caused serious harm to key financial institutions, the looming—perhaps better described as ongoing– crisis results from federal policies.

American employers face severe disadvantages. Tax rates are the highest of any developed nation, and regulations are more extreme. Bad trade deals continue to allow nations to sell relatively unhindered to U.S. consumers, while Washington does little to address discriminatory treatment of American productions sold overseas. In many cases, the intellectual property produced in the U.S., including software, entertainment features, and new/advanced technological techniques and goods are outright stolen through industrial espionage and other means, with little response from the U.S. government.

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Obamacare-Medicaid Connection: Back Door to a National Single Payer Plan?

President Obama is seeking to expand federal funding to states that expand medicaid eligibility.

One of the key results of the Affordable Care Act (ACA, better known as Obamacare) has been an explosion in Medicaid enrollment.  About 12 million people have signed up for Medicaid under the program. Some observers believe that the Medicaid-expansion provisions of the ACA were a stealth effort to lay the groundwork for a one-payer system.

A revealing study by the Henry J. Kaiser Foundation  notes that  “policy changes introduced by the Affordable Care Act (ACA) have been driving Medicaid enrollment and spending growth…Medicaid enrollment and spending increased substantially in FY 2015, the first full year of implementation of the major ACA coverage expansions. Across all 50 states and DC, Medicaid enrollment increased on average by 13.8 percent in FY 2015, largely due to the ACA coverage expansions.”

Those states that accepted Medicaid expansion under the ACA experienced Medicaid growth far in excess of non-expansion states. The Kaiser study found that “Expansion states reported Medicaid enrollment and total spending growth nearly three times the rate of non-expansion states. A total of 29 states were implementing the ACA Medicaid expansion in FY 2015, up from 26 states in the previous year (FY 2015 additions include: New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Indiana.)

“Across the 29 expansion states in FY 2015, enrollment increased on average by 18.0 percent and total spending increased by 17.7 percent; both enrollment and spending growth were driven by increases in enrollment among adults qualifying under the new expansion group. Of the 29 states expanding Medicaid in FY 2015, more than half (17 states) noted that enrollment initially increased faster than expected.”

“ Over two-thirds of expansion states reported that per member per month costs for the expansion population were at or below projections.  Across the 22 states not implementing the Medicaid expansion in FY 2015, enrollment and total spending growth was 5.1 percent and 6.1 percent (respectively), much slower growth compared to the expansion states. Increased enrollment among previously eligible parents and children was the primary reason cited for enrollment growth in non-expansion states.”

Obamacarefacts.com otes that “ObamaCare’s Medicaid Expansion Could Insure 21.3 Million Americans in the Next Decade. ObamaCare Medicaid Expansion is one of the biggest milestones in health care reform. “
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A Heritage review  found that the increased Medicaid enrollment under Obamacare has been accompanied by declining enrollment  in employer plans.

A Washington Examiner  review emphasizes that “There are 393 appearances of the word ‘Medicaid’ in the legislative text of Obamacare. The expansion of Medicaid itself is authorized in Title II, Subtitle A of Obamacare — a section called, ‘Improved Access to Medicaid.’ The Medicaid expansion is one of the main two ways through which Obamacare expands insurance coverage. By 2025, the Congressional Budget Office projects that Obamacare will add 14 million people to Medicaid. The Medicaid expansion will account for $824 billion (or slightly more than half) of Obamacare spending over the next decade, according to the CBO.

“It’s also worth noting that Medicaid is the one aspect of Obamacare that both left and right agree is explicitly a single-payer system. The logical implication of Kasich’s position of boasting about rejecting setting up a state-based exchange while expanding Medicaid is that Obamacare would have been better if it simply expanded single-payer healthcare in the U.S. instead of monkeying around with regulated exchanges that featured private insurers.”

Jeff Reynolds, writing in Freedomworks states that  “the expansion of Medicaid under Obamacare has come with all sorts of surprises and unintended (or perhaps intended) consequences. Medicaid expansion creates a two-tier medical delivery system that forces all but the most well-off into a single-payer system. Indeed, Obamacare’s similarities to Great Britain’s NHS are becoming more apparent. Another way this is being accomplished: the removal of asset limits for Medicaid qualification.

“In addition to the huge cost to the taxpayers, there is much to worry about in expanding Medicaid, particularly in the quality of care, notes Reynolds. “There is also strong evidence Medicaid provides substandard care. The Manhattan Institute’s Avik Roy wrote in 2012, ‘Medicaid patients were almost twice as likely to die as those with private insurance; their hospital stays were 42 percent longer and cost 26 percent more.’

“Many doctors refuse to accept Medicaid patients because payments are low. John Goodman of the National Center for Policy Analysis told Fox News, ‘One woman in Boston who was in Medicaid said she had to go through a list of 20 doctors before she found one who would see her.’ He adds, ‘I asked if she was going through the Yellow Pages,’ and she said, ‘No, I’m going through the list of doctors Medicaid gave me.”

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Terror Threat Increases on U.S. Southern Border

More Pakistanis and Afghans, including those of military age, carrying U.S. passports, and on the terror watch list illegally entered the United States in the first month of this fiscal year than in all of FY2015, According to a San Diego Reader report.

Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-California) in a recent letter to Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson, stated:

“It is routinely said that there is no ‘specific and credible information about an attack on the homeland.’ Despite this assertion, the Southern land border remains vulnerable to intrusion and exists as a point of vulnerability. And evidently there are criminal organizations and individuals with the networks and the knowhow to facilitate illegal entry into the United States without regard for one’s intentions or status on a terror watch list. The detention of two Pakistani nationals underscores the fact that any serious effort to secure our homeland must include effective border security and immigration enforcement.”

According to the San Diego Reader, “Muhammad Azeem and Muktar Ahmad, both in their 20s, surrendered to U.S. Border Patrol agents in September, according to Immigration and Customs Enforcement. One was listed on the Terrorist Screening Database for ‘associations with a known or suspected terrorist. The other was a positive match for derogatory information in an alternative database,’ according to Hunter’s letter. Azeem and Ahmad are among dozens of men — described by Border Patrol agents as “military age and carrying U.S. cash” who began entering the U.S. through a Tijuana-based human-smuggling pipeline in September.”

In October, Judical Watch (JW)  disclosed that:

“a top law enforcement official finally confirmed that Islamic terrorists have infiltrated the United States through Mexico…Last October JW reported that four members of the militant group Islamic State of Iraq and Greater Syria (ISIS), who entered the U.S. through the Mexican border, were arrested in McAllen and Pharr Texas. Then, over the summer, JW reported that Mexican drug cartels are smuggling foreigners from countries with terrorist links into a small Texas rural town near El Paso and they’re using remote farm roads—rather than interstates—to elude the Border Patrol and other law enforcement barriers. The information comes from sources on both sides of the Mexico-U.S. border who say the Special Interest Aliens (SIA) are being transported to stash areas in Acala, a rural crossroads located around 54 miles from El Paso on a state road – Highway 20.

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“This past spring JW sources that include a Mexican Army field grade officer and a Mexican Federal Police inspector disclosed that ISIS is actually operating a camp just a few miles from El Paso. The exact location where the terrorist group has established its base is around eight miles from the U.S. border in an area known as “Anapra” situated just west of Ciudad Juárez in the Mexican state of Chihuahua. Another ISIS cell to the west of Ciudad Juárez, in Puerto Palomas, targets the New Mexico towns of Columbus and Deming for easy access to the United States, the same knowledgeable sources told JW.

“For the most part, government officials have refused to go on the record about these serious terrorist threats and in fact many have outright denied they exist or have tried silencing sources. For instance, a congressman (Beto O’Rourke) who represents El Paso in the U.S. House of Representatives telephoned area offices of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) and the U.S. Border Patrol (USBP) in an effort to identify—and evidently intimidate—sources that may have been used by JW to break the ISIS in Juarez story.”

Security Intelligence emphasizes that:

“Intelligence community documents, congressional hearings and media reports point to a growing international convergence of organized crime groups and terror organizations to take advantage of the specialized skills and assets of each group.

“For example, there is evidence of Hezbollah establishing a strong base in Latin America over the past decade or more and working with Mexican DTOs to launder money, finance terrorism and smuggle people. According to Jennifer Hesterman, author of “The Terrorist-Criminal Nexus,” the Italian Mafia has worked with al-Qaida, and DTOs with U.S. outlaw motorcycle gangs, to carry out illicit operations. These are groups with diverging interests, goals and philosophies, yet they are working together to capitalize on each other’s specific skills or assets.”

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Bipartisan Concern over Iran Nuclear Deal

21 Democrat Senators and 35 of their Republican colleagueshave written to the President  asking him to act against Iran’s nuclear-capable missile tests, a violation, they maintain, of the nuclear deal. The Democrats’ letter, quoted in The Hill http://thehill.com/blogs/floor-action/senate/263686-senate-dems-push-obama-to-act-on-iran-missile-tests states:

“Such action is essential to make clear to Iran’s leaders that there will be consequences for future violations of UN Security Council Resolutions and that the United States reserves the right under the [nuclear agreement] to take unilateral action in response to this and other significant actions by Iran in the areas of ballistic missile development, terrorism and human rights,”

The President has refused. The actions highlight the problems with the agreement between Iran and the P5+1 countries. The most comprehensive analysis of the controversial deal was that provided by the American Foreign Policy Council. http://www.afpc.org/ We conclude our two-part summary of that report http://www.afpc.org/publication_listings/viewPolicyPaper/2926 today.

Anticipating the Consequences

There are indications that the Islamic Republic has already begun to ramp up its defense expenditures… it has initiated major new procurement talks with arms suppliers such as Russia and China, and is now poised to acquire new aircraft, air defenses and components. Such acquisitions will lead, over time, to a significant strengthening of Iran’s ability to project power into its immediate periphery, as well as its capacity to threaten and/or challenge its strategic rivals. Even before then, however, the perception of growing Iranian military power will begin to have pronounced effects on the geopolitical balance of power in the greater Middle East.
A new rogue state patron. Although it has received comparatively little attention to date, one of the most significant consequences of the economic windfall inherent in the JCPOA will be its impact on the foreign allies and strategic partners of the Islamic Republic. This list includes the “Bolivarian” nations of Venezuela, Bolivia and Ecuador in Latin America, the Stalinist regime of Kim Jong-un in North Korea, and the dictatorship of Omar el-Bashir in the Sudan, among others – all of which currently maintain significant political, economic and military ties to the Iranian regime. …An associated danger is the potential provision by Iran of strategic assistance to other aspiring nuclear weapons states; by allowing Iran to keep a large enrichment program, the JCPOA increases the risk that Iran could transfer enrichment technology and materials to other states or even non-state actors.

Stepped up Iranian proliferation. President Obama has publicly asserted that the JCPOA closes of “all pathways” by which the Iranian regime can acquire a nuclear capability. This, however, is not accurate. The agreement concerns itself overwhelmingly with the overt means by which Iran might develop a nuclear capability: by building one. A parallel, covert “pathway” – involving procurement of nuclear-related components and materiel from foreign suppliers – remains open. As such, the practical effect of the JCPOA, once implemented, will be to facilitate covert procurement by the Islamic Republic.

Moreover, given the expanded resources soon to be at Iran’s disposal, its purchasing power for such activities will expand exponentially. Willing foreign suppliers exist at both the state and non-state level. At the state level, Iran’s ongoing – and extensive – strategic alliance with the North Korean regime poses considerable future risks, insofar as nuclear and ballistic missile cooperation between the two countries has a long history and is ongoing.

Similarly, multiple private entities involved in Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs continue to operate within the People’s Republic of China, and have been estimated to provide as much as 90 percent of the necessary “goods and technology” for both. As such, nonproliferation experts have warned that “[t]here is considerable risk that Tehran could covertly procure nuclear materials from Chinese brokers and circumvent a nuclear deal by secretly creating a new parallel nuclear program.” At the same time, Iran will have both greater incentive and greater capability to engage in “offshore” development of a nuclear capability, relying on its existing strategic partnerships abroad to continue nuclear development outside of territorial Iran. Here, too, Iran’s contacts with North Korea represent a source of serious concern, with one or more of the nuclear tests carried out by the DPRK over the past decade believed to have been carried out at least in part to test Iranian capabilities.

A regional proliferation cascade. In the late 2000s, worries over Iran’s burgeoning nuclear capability had prompted the beginnings of a regional proliferation “cascade,” as vulnerable regional states moved ahead with the acquisition of strategic counterweights to Iran’s emerging nuclear capability… Thirteen other countries in the greater Middle East were in various stages of nuclear acquisition, with most doing so specifically in response to Iran’s nuclear effort… growing uncertainty over the regional strategic balance in the Middle East – coupled with fears of Iran’s imperial ambitions – has revived the interest of regional powers in acquiring their own nuclear deterrent. Most prominently, Saudi Arabia, Iran’s long-time ideological rival in the Islamic world, has made clear that, should Iran move toward the creation of a nuclear weapon, “we would do that also…” Other countries can be expected to follow suit, given both the inherent flaws in the JCPOA and the inability of the Obama administration to provide adequate security guarantees against the emergence of a nuclear Iran…

A slower, but stronger, Iranian nuclear program

The particulars of the JCPOA confirm that the initial objective of Western diplomacy with Iran – the “rollback” of the Islamic Republic’s nuclear infrastructure – has not been attained. To the contrary, the existing terms of the agreement will actually help Iran to develop a stronger nuclear program over time…

Managing the Fallout

The foregoing makes abundantly clear that passage of the JCPOA does not signal an end to the Iranian challenge confronting the United States, but rather a new – and arguably even more challenging – phase in that contest. America’s strategy must change accordingly, and should do so in the following areas:

Tracking Iranian money The United States and its partners…need to focus on how to prevent post-agreement Iranian money from migrating into the coffers of Hezbollah and other terrorist actors or from fueling expanded nuclear procurement and proliferation…

Blacklisting the IRGC With the exception of its Supreme Leader, there is no more important political actor in Iran than the regime’s clerical army, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (Sepāh-e Pāsdārān-e Enqelāb-e Eslāmi). … it will therefore emerge as a major beneficiary of any sanctions relief received by the Islamic Republic, as well as becoming disproportionately enriched by the resumption of trade between Iran and potential trading partners in Europe and Asia. To limit this benefit, the United States should move resolutely to limit the IRGC’s ability to access the international economy…

Ensuring Iranian compliance
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Iran’s anticipated violations of the JCPOA in the near future are not likely to include an obvious “sprint” to the nuclear finish line in the form of major, sustained violations of the terms of the deal. Rather, it is far more likely to “inch out,” testing the resolve of Western nations to hold it to account over numerous small infractions… Indeed, such violations are believed to be occurring already…

By minimizing such instances as immaterial and defending Iran against criticism from the press, the White House has made clear that … does not currently possess the tools to exact tactical penalties from the Islamic Republic for minor infractions without torpedoing the nuclear deal as a whole. And because it does not, the White House is incentivized to turn a blind eye to instances of Iranian cheating.

Enhancing deterrence against Iran

…the danger of a breakout remains a real one. Moreover, the danger of an Iranian “dash” for the bomb becomes more acute as we move further into the future, and Iran’s nuclear program increases in both sophistication and maturity. The Obama administration has expressed its support for means of deterring Iran “from ever obtaining a nuclear weapon,” … Yet it so far has not undertaken concrete steps to communicate to the Iranian regime that it is prepared to do so

As former Administration offcials Dennis Ross and David Petraeus have outlined, one measure that the United States could take would be to provide Israel with ordinance capable of destroying Iranian nuclear facilities: Beyond bolstering Israel’s ability to act unilaterally to prevent Iranian “breakout,” however, the United States also needs to articulate a clear, unambiguous deterrence posture regarding its readiness to use resolute force to prevent Iran’s acquisition of an offensive nuclear capability, either during the lifespan of the JCPOA or afterwards. Iran must be put on notice in concrete terms that the United States is prepared to prevent the emergence of a nuclear-armed Iran by any means necessary.

Intrinsic to this declaratory posture is a recapitalization of American defense capabilities. The U.S. military now finds itself at its lowest force strength since the end of World War II. Existing budgetary constraints have severely impacted both the readiness and power projection capabilities of American forces. This state of affairs calls into question the ability of the United States to credibly assure the protection of allies in the event of hostilities with Iran, or undertake unilateral military action against the Islamic Republic in the event of material breach of the JCPOA or some other casus belli. A recapitalization of the U.S. military writ large, including a strengthening of the nuclear triad, must become a national priority at the earliest possible time.

Strengthening missile defense capabilities

Conspicuous in their absence from the terms of the JCPOA are meaningful restrictions on the size and sophistication of Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal…

To guard against this threat, the United States will need to significantly expand and strengthen its investments in Middle Eastern missile defense capabilities….

Preserving Iran’s democratic potential

Already ranked among the world’s most repressive regimes, the past several years have seen a deepening crackdown on human rights, freedom of expression and political choice within the Islamic Republic…

Domestic conditions within Iran should be of significant concern to American policymakers. The Islamic Republic’s nearly 82 million-person population is overwhelmingly youthful, educated and westward-looking. While Iran’s current clerical regime has made no secret of its ongoing animus to the United States, notwithstanding the passage of the JCPOA, this “other” Iran holds out the promise of a more durable and harmonious relationship with the West. But the JCPOA imperils Iran’s democratic potential, because it strengthens the current Iranian government at the expense of its captive population… In response, Congress will need to act more resolutely than ever before, through both public statements and concrete legislation, to shine a spotlight on Iran’s human rights abuses and to penalize the Iranian government for its repression of democracy at home.

Protecting American outreach…in the wake of the JCPOA, there is a danger that America’s voice will be muted – if not silenced outright… While the White House has given no indication that it is prepared to do so, Congress should be prepared for this to emerge as a demand of the Iranian regime and take proactive steps to preserve and ultimately to strengthen the ability of America’s public diplomacy outlets to communicate with the Iranian people – even as it continues to press for a robust, coherent strategy to underpin this outreach. Simultaneously, the United States needs to increase its investment in Internet freedom in Iran.

THE ROAD AHEAD

While a nuclear deal with Iran has now been struck, the broader strategic challenge that Iran poses to American interests and allies persists. Resolute American action is necessary to prevent Iranian cheating during the time that the JCPOA is in force, an Iranian nuclear breakout thereafter, and adverse effects stemming from Iran’s acquisition of the extensive sanctions relief inherent in the agreement. Currently, the United States lacks both the capacity and credibility to respond to the potential consequences of the nuclear agreement with Iran. We believe that altering this status quo must become a priority for U.S. lawmakers in the months and years ahead.

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Unassimilated Immigrants Cause Disruption in Europe

In the aftermath of the horrific incident in Cologne, Germany on New Year’s Eve, in which approximately 1,000 men, described in many sources as recent asylum seekers from the Middle East, sexually attacked and robbed in excess of 200 women, some German politicians chose instead to criticize the action of those who brought the crimes to the public’s attention as “right wing rhetoric,” as noted in the Daily Mail.  Politically, that mindset is reminiscent of President Obama’s comments following the San Bernardino terrorist shooting, which he used to concentrate more on his gun control proposals and on his belief, often stated but with little provided evidence, that there is a significant anti-Muslim backlash threat in the U.S., rather than on the growing threat of violent terrorists’ assaults.

The New Year’s Eve attack was another recent European event calling into question the European Union’s  open-borders policy, known as the Schengen Agreement. Originally designed to promote the passport-free flow of people within nations participating in the agreement, it now faces substantial revision or elimination as a result of attacks by Islamic extremists, such as the November 13 attacks in Paris which killed 130 people.

As noted by the BBC “in 2015 the influx of more than a million migrants – many of them Syrian refugees – greatly increased the pressure on Schengen. One after another, EU states re-imposed temporary border controls. In December the European Commission proposed a major amendment to Schengen, expected to become law soon.”

The Council on Foreign Relations reports that “Political upheaval in the Middle East, Africa, and South Asia is reshaping migration trends in Europe. The number of illegal border-crossing detections in the EU started to surge in 2011, as thousands of Tunisians started to arrive at the Italian island of Lampedusa following the onset of the Arab Spring. Sub-Saharan Africans who had previously migrated to Libya followed in 2011–2012, fleeing unrest in the post-Qaddafi era. The most recent surge in detections along the EU’s maritime borders has been attributed to the growing numbers of Syrian, Afghan, and Eritrean migrants and refugees. [There are]… estimates that more than 464,000 migrants have crossed into Europe by sea for the first nine months of 2015. Syrians fleeing their country’s four-and-a-half-year-old civil war made up the largest group (39 percent). Afghans looking to escape the ongoing war with Taliban rebels (11 percent), and Eritreans fleeing forced labor (7 percent) made up the second and third largest groups of migrants, respectively. Deteriorating security and grinding poverty in Iraq, Nigeria, Pakistan, Somalia, and Sudan have also contributed to the migrant influx.

The questioning of immigration policy concerned more than just several recent incidents that were the actions of Islamic extremists. Sweden has become a major case study in the results of allowing entry to a substantial number of immigrants that do not assimilate readily into local cultural norms and standards.

Sweden made a specific political decision to allow an unprecedented and vast increase in immigration. Since that decision was made, reports The Gatestone Institute:

“Violent crime has increased by 300%. If one looks at the number of rapes, however, the increase is even worse. In 1975, 421 rapes were reported to the police; in 2014, it was 6,620. That is an increase of 1,472%. Sweden is now number two on the global list of rape countries. According to a survey from 2010, Sweden, with 53.2 rapes per 100,000 inhabitants, is surpassed only by tiny Lesotho in Southern Africa, with 91.6 rapes per 100,000 inhabitants.

“Over the past 10-15 years, immigrants have mainly come from Muslim countries such as Iraq, Syria and Somalia. Michael Hess, a local politician from Sweden Democrat Party, encouraged Swedish journalists to get acquainted with Islam’s view of women, in connection with the many rapes that took place in Cairo’s Tahrir Square during the “Arab Spring”…Hess notes that “There is a strong connection between rapes in Sweden and the number of immigrants from MENA-countries [Middle East and North Africa].”This remark led to Michael Hess being charged with “denigration of ethnic groups” [hets mot folkgrupp], a crime in Sweden. In May last year, he was handed a suspended jail sentence and a fine — the suspension was due to the fact that he had no prior convictions. The verdict has been appealed to a higher court.

“Whether or not they measured by the number of convicted rapists or men suspected of rape, men of foreign extraction were represented far more than Swedes… A new trend reached Sweden with full force over the past few decades: gang rape — virtually unknown before in Swedish criminal history. The number of gang rapes increased spectacularly between 1995 and 2006. Since then no studies of them have been undertaken.
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The Alliance of European Conservatives and Reformists (AECR) is a conservative and euro-sceptic European political party, defending broader conservative and economically liberal principles. It has twenty-two member parties, as well as four independent members, spread across twenty countries.

The AECR believes that the dramatic influx of people from the Middle East into German has presented vast problems.

“When Angela Merkel announced that Germany would welcome all that sought refuge at its border in September 2015, the move was celebrated as a sign of Germany’s progressive leadership. Today, the reality of inciting rather than discouraging large scale migration via treacherous and criminal channels has been tragically well documented.

“A second reality now hitting home is that large-scale uncontrolled migration inevitably leads to host communities feeling some strain as more and more people settle in those areas….

“Following the Paris terror attacks in November, France re-introduced border controls. Germany also, embarrassingly, has had to introduced border controls in 2015 while Austria is going as far as putting up a barbed wire fence along its border with Schengen EU-member Slovenia. The repercussions are also being felt further afield as the migration pushes on northwards.

“Sweden – traditionally one of the most welcoming of EU countries – [has] began carrying out ID-checks on its border with Denmark. Denmark, responded by introducing checks at its borders with Germany.”

Although expressing confidence that the threat could be overcome, Pope Francis has warned that the massive wave of Islamic immigrants could pose a threat to the human-centered culture of Europe.

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DHS Attempted to Stonewall Ebola Investigation

According to a worrisome report by the Department of Homeland Security’s (DHS) Office of the Inspector General,  (OIG) DHS’s response to the Ebola epidemic in 2014 was flawed. It also appears that DHS attempted to stonewall the inquiry into its problematic response.

Following the outbreak of the largest Ebola outbreak on record, DHS was tasked with preventing the African outbreak from spreading to the United States, largely by screening passengers at American ports of entry. The OIG found that while the response was timely, DHS failed to provide proper training, appropriate procedures were not consistently followed, and DHS workers themselves did not receive necessary protection.

In September of 2014, the Centers for Disease Control, a division of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), confirmed the first case of Ebola in the United States.  Approximately two weeks later, screening began at five major airports, including NYC’s JFK, Washington-Dulles in Virginia, Newark Liberty in New Jersey, O’Hare in Chicago, and Hartsfield-Jackson in Atlanta.  The screenings eventually spread to all U.S. Ports of Entry, resulting in over 20,000 screenings between October 2014 and June 2015.

The OIG audit revealed that DHS didn’t “ensure sufficient coordination, adequate training, and consistent screening of people arriving at U.S. ports of entry…Coordination between DHS, HHS, and other DHS components was not sufficient to ensure all passenger received full screening.”

Among the specific criticisms contained in the report:

CBP officers did not consistently refer passengers to Ebola screening, even when the travelers self-declared their travel to an Ebola-affected country;

Diplomats, United Nations workers, U.S. Government employees, and other dignitaries were not thoroughly scrutinized;

CBP officers did not consistently receive proper medical clearance, and DHS workers were not consistently protected.

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“During the course of this audit, we [OIG] encountered significant delays, cooperation issues and opposition from both components and Departmental offices.  Audited groups were unwilling to provide requested information in response to briefings and audit findings. The continued delays and resistance to providing responses during this engagement have violated the spirit of the Inspector General Act and have prevented our offices from delivering a timely report to Congress.”

The OIG has made ten recommendations for improvement. They urge stronger cooperation between agencies, better training, more thorough dissemination of information and guidance, more oversight of reporting procedures, and more careful purchasing of equipment.

The OIG’s report, which was brought to the public’s attention by the Washington Free Beacon,  did not cover broader policy issues concerning the federal government’s response to the Ebola outbreak.  Last October, the New York Analysis of Policy & Government noted that there was a lack of candid conversation about how Ebola is spread, and how it could evolve in dangerous ways, such as airborne transmission.  The American public was constantly told not to worry because the contagion is not airborne. Even without that mutation, however, the disease is so virulent that it can exist for hours on surfaces. So if an infected individual sweats, coughs, sneezes, or otherwise leaves any bodily fluid on a site others can touch, it can spread.

Nor has there been adequate discussion about the danger posed by direct flights to or from actively infected areas. Unlike several African nations and other countries including France and the United Kingdom which banned direct flights, the United States, inexplicably, continued them. The CDC’s director Thomas Freidan was asked about this on several occasions, and none of his explanations were even remotely credible. There is no reason that specially prepared charter flights could not have been substituted for any necessary transit to or from West Africa.

The five airports designated for receiving individuals from West Africa, including Kennedy International in New York, Newark Liberty International, Washington Dulles International, O’Hare International in Chicago, and Hartsfield-Jackson International in Atlanta, were both too numerous and located precisely in densely populated areas where the disease could most quickly spread. A more rational move would have been to limit travel, after a suitable quarantine period, to a single reception site in the United States where comprehensive health checks could have been performed.

In a 2010 decision the Obama Administration decided to scrap proposals  first set in place by the Bush Administration in 2005 in response to the potential spread of the Avian flu. It would have given the federal government wider authority to confront the spread of contagious diseases.

Health care workers have discussed fears about the adequacy of their facilities and procedures.  In a Washington Post interview, CDC spokeswoman Abbigail Tumpey admitted that “We as a health care system have to make sure not to let our guard down and be vigilant that patients with Ebola could show up at any U.S. health care facility…”