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Russia, China, North Korea aid Iran’s nuclear and ICBM development

Much attention has been paid to Iran’s nuclear program. The issue that concerns most is that the deal doesn’t prevent the development of atomic weapons in the future, and doesn’t appear likely to even stop ongoing such development in the present. However, other deadly military efforts have been largely overlooked.

The Russian news source RT reports that the Tehran government is expanding its ballistic missile program.  Iran carried out a missile test in October, violating a UN Security Council resolution forbidding the construction of missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads.

The Wall Street Journal noted at the close of 2015 that “Iranian President Hassan Rouhani ordered his defense minister to expedite development of the country’s ballistic missile program in response to new U.S. sanctions set to be imposed on Iranian defense companies. Mr. Rouhani’s comments, made on his official Twitter account…cast fresh doubts on the prospects for the U.S. and Iran to successfully implement the landmark nuclear agreement reached last July.” The new American sanctions were proposed in response to two Iranian ballistic missile tests  over the past three months.

Even before the new advances, research from the United States Institute of Peace  revealed that “Iran has the largest and most diverse ballistic missile arsenal in the Middle East. (Israel has more capable ballistic missiles, but fewer in number and type.) Most were acquired from foreign sources, notably North Korea. The Islamic Republic is the only country to develop a 2,000-km missile without first having a nuclear weapons capability. Iran is still dependent on foreign suppliers for key ingredients, components and equipment, but it should eventually be able to develop long-range missiles over time, including an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile or ICBM.

Currently, Iran fields a sophisticated medium range ballistic missile that has a range of 1,200 miles. The weapon, known as the Shahab-3, is based on the North Korean “NoDong 1” missile. But has been improved to provide longer range and better accuracy, according to the Iran Intelligence  source. Iran has been the world’s third most active missile testing nation, topped only by Russia and China.
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The American Foreign Policy Council Task Force reported in October that “Willing foreign suppliers exist at both the state and non-state level. At the state level, Iran’s ongoing – and extensive – strategic alliance with the North Korean regime poses considerable future risks, insofar as nuclear and ballistic missile cooperation between the two countries has a long history and is ongoing. Similarly, multiple private entities involved in Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs continue to operate within the People’s Republic of China, and have been estimated to provide as much as 90 percent of the necessary “goods and technology” for both. As such, nonproliferation experts have warned that “[t]here is considerable risk that Tehran could covertly procure nuclear materials from Chinese brokers and circumvent a nuclear deal by secretly creating a new parallel nuclear program.” At the same time, Iran will have both greater incentive and greater capability to engage in “offshore” development of a nuclear capability, relying on its existing strategic partnerships abroad to continue nuclear development outside of territorial Iran. Here, too, Iran’s contacts with North Korea represent a source of serious concern, with one or more of the nuclear tests carried out by the DPRK over the past decade believed to have been carried out at least in part to test Iranian capabilities.”

The International Business Times reports that “Russia currently has a deal in place from April to supply Iran with the S-300 missile defense system. It’s yet to be seen how it will be completed given that Iran is now banned from buying missile technology for eight years.”

The Rand organization notes that  “Over the past few decades, China and Iran have developed a broad and deep partnership centered on China’s energy needs and Iran’s abundant resources as well as significant non-energy economic ties, arms sales and defense cooperation, and geostrategic balancing against the United States. This partnership presents a unique challenge to U.S. interests and objectives. In particular, China’s policies have hampered U.S. and international efforts to dissuade Iran from developing a nuclear weapons capability…China has aided Iran’s efforts to modernize its military hardware and doctrine through the transfer of military technology and sales of small arms and tactical ballistic and anti-ship cruise missiles. China has assisted in the development of Iran’s nuclear program via the transfer of technology and machinery.”

The Russian-Chinese-Iranian-North Korean axis presents the world with a significant threat, both in terms of total military strength (exceeding that of the U.S.-NATO alliance) as well in the proliferation of nuclear power and ICBM technology.

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2015’s Major policy errors

Every year has its share of bad policies, incidents of poor judgment, and significant missteps by government, the media, and other centers of power. However, 2015 had more than the usual amount of extremely serious errors.

  1. “The Shadow of the Crisis of Terrorism has passed.” –President Obama, 2015 State of the Union Address. Throughout 2015, it became increasingly clear that the White House had lost its grip on reality concerning the threat of terrorism. The statement continued a woeful record of stunning missteps in the Administration’s Middle East policy, including the President’s “Apology tour,” support for the pro-extremist “Arab Spring” movements, the alienation of close ally Israel, and the one-sided Iran nuclear deal which has already been dishonored by Tehran. The stunning lack of perception or concern was repeated by Mr. Obama shortly before the San Bernardino attack, when he again stated his belief that the U.S. was not in immediate danger, and in its aftermath when the President, in a rare Oval Office address, essentially claimed his policies were working and instead issued comments concentrating on his beliefs about anti-Moslem bias and stock comments on gun ownership. Adding to the problem has been the unilateral nature of the White House’s actions in  Mideast matters. The Senate has largely been denied its’ rightful role in foreign affairs, particularly in the Iran nuclear deal, through the Administrations’ continuing tactic of labelling treaties—which the Constitution mandates Senate approval for—as agreements, or other labels.
  1. “Hands Up, Don’t Shoot!” It turns out there wasn’t any wrongdoing by the police in Ferguson in this incident, but that didn’t stop left-wing spokespersons and racial profiteers from using it as an excuse to gin up support for progressive candidates and issues throughout the nation. The Black Lives Matter movement has become a major source of disruption throughout the U.S., setting back years of improvement in racial relations. Police have become targets.  While isolated incidents of police misconduct undoubtedly exist, the portrayal of American law enforcement as having major problems with bigotry is patently false. The shameful conduct of the U.S. Justice Department, which has exhibited a shoot first, ask questions later in its actions targeting police officers and exploiting incidents, real and otherwise, for political purposes, is a textbook example of unprofessionalism.
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  1. White House continues to stonewall Benghazi investigation. “What does it matter.” –Hillary Clinton in testimony before Congress, January 23, 2013. Hillary Clinton certainly wishes the Benghazi incident be forgotten, but the evidence became increasingly clear in 2015 that the State Department acted inappropriately and possibly illegally before and throughout the attack on the U.S. facility that resulted in the death of U.S. Ambassador J. Christopher Stevens, Information Officer Sean Smith, and operatives Glen Doherty and Tyrone Woods on September 11, 2012. In 2015, A number of sources indicated that the State Department was running guns out of Benghazi to forces opposing Syrian dictator Bashar al Assad. Although the cause may have been worthy, those forces appear to be associated with Islamic extremists, who are even more eager to attack Americans. Providing weapons to them is forbidden by federal law and punishable by very substantial prison terms.  It’s no wonder Ms. Clinton is eager to put the incident behind her. Making matters even worse, it’s clear, based on emails obtained by Judicial Watch at the end of 2015 as a result of a Freedom of Information lawsuit, that the U.S. military was ready, willing, and fully capable of mounting a rescue mission, but was told to stand down by the State Department. The outright lies that came from both the White House and the State Department about the role of a video continued to force Americans to doubt the integrity of both the White House and the State Department throughout 2015.
  1. The Paris Climate Agreement. Whether one believes in man-made global warming or doubts human activity plays much of a role at all, the Paris Climate Agreement was a mistake.

First, of course, there is that familiar Obama Administration problem—calling an important international treaty an “agreement” in order to avoid the Constitutional role of the Senate.  You don’t have to be a Republican to see the issue here.  Presidents are not the whole government—the Founding Fathers set up three branches of government in order to prevent anyone from gaining excessive power. Mr. Obama has consistently run roughshod over that safeguard.

Second, if one agrees with the concept of global warming, the Paris Agreement does not go far enough to make any significant difference in deterring future warming, while costing upwards of $100 billion, and jeopardizing the economic health of developed nations by mandating the substantial reduction of some energy sources long before any truly effective substitutes can be found.  If one disagrees with the concept of man-made global warming, then the intentional refusal to consider the views of a significant percentage of the scientific community, along with the numerous reports of falsified data and politically-motivated warping of research by warming theory advocates makes this deal an insult to the whole concept of the scientific process. And there is this: A number of astronomers specializing in studying the sun maintain that for the next half century or so, global cooling, not warming, may be the biggest challenge to our environment.

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U.S. Economy Ends 2015 in Slump

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reports that economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in December for the second consecutive month. The Wall Street Journal notes that “U.S. factories are in their worst slump since 2009.” Manufacturing accounts for about 12% of the U.S. economy, but its impact on middle-class employment and the U.S. balance of trade is even greater.

While U.S. manufacturing had declined before 2000, the precipitous drop, and its dire impact on the U.S. balance of trade and middle-class employment, had its origins in President Clinton’s allowing China to enter the World Trade Organization (WTO).

The Manufacturing News notes that “Since 2000, the trade deficit with China has surged by 173 percent, from $83 billion in 2000 to $227 billion in 2009. The United States has lost more than one-third of all its manufacturing jobs — 5.6 million; U.S. wages have declined; the country has suffered a financial meltdown; it has spent $14 trillion on economic stimulus, only to experience the highest unemployment rates in generations and annual federal budget deficits of more than $1 trillion.”

Speaking about the manufacturing sector, ISM’s chair Bradley J. Holcomb reported that “The December PMI® registered 48.2 percent, a decrease of 0.4 percentage point from the November reading of 48.6 percent. …The Employment Index registered 48.1 percent, 3.2 percentage points below the November reading of 51.3 percent. The Prices Index registered 33.5 percent, a decrease of 2 percentage points from the November reading of 35.5 percent, indicating lower raw materials prices for the 14th consecutive month. The New Export Orders Index registered 51 percent, up 3.5 percentage points from the November reading of 47.5 percent and the Imports Index registered 45.5 percent, down 3.5 percentage points from the November reading of 49 percent. As was the case in November, 10 out of 18 manufacturing industries reported contraction in December. Contraction in new orders, production, employment and raw materials inventories accounted for the overall softness in December.”

ISM reports that of the 18 manufacturing industries, six are reporting growth in December in the following order: Printing & Related Support Activities; Textile Mills; Paper Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Chemical Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. The 10 industries reporting contraction in December — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Machinery; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Computer & Electronic Products; Wood Products; and Nonmetallic Mineral Products.

 

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“But there is another big factor that is not often mentioned and has a huge effect on both the manufacturing sector and jobs. That factor is the growing trade deficit which is really the ultimate determinant of job creation in the U.S.

“Dan Dimicco, chairman emeritus of Nucor Corporation…says in 2013, net trade subtracted about 3% from our economy (because imports exceeded exports). This shrinkage is cumulative, compounding year after year.” In the case of America we have had trade deficits for 39 years and it is now more than an $8 trillion debt. But why isn’t the government, Wall Street, multinational corporations, and many pundits and bloggers worried about the growing trade deficit? Why is the trade deficit largely ignored while everyone is more concerned about the federal deficit? Wall Street, the Multi-national corporations and the Obama Administration have adopted a policy of appeasement where foreign mercantilism seems to be irrelevant and attempts at balancing trade are ignored. It is as if the trade deficit is an open ended charge account that is simply an accounting summary that will never have to be paid back. All of our trading partners (competitors) understand trade deficits and they do something about them.”

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta  also issued disappointing news, noting that “The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2015 is 0.7 percent on January 4, down from 1.3 percent on December 23. The forecast for the contribution of net exports to fourth-quarter real GDP growth fell 0.1 percentage points to -0.4 percentage points on December 29 after the U.S. Census Bureau’s advance report on international trade in goods. “

Overall, according to the December report from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis :

“The goods and services deficit for the whole U.S. economy was $43.9 billion in October, up $1.4 billion from $42.5 billion in September, revised. October exports were $184.1 billion, $2.7 billion less than September exports. October imports were $228.0 billion, $1.3 billion less than September imports. The October increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $2.1 billion to $63.1 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.6 billion to $19.2 billion. Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $22.2 billion, or 5.3 percent, from the same period in 2014. Exports decreased $84.7 billion or 4.3 percent. Imports decreased $62.5 billion or 2.6 percent.”

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Top under reported stories of 2015

The 24 hour news cycle makes it hard to believe that any scrap of news didn’t get extensive coverage.  The reality is, however, the stories that may have the greatest impact in the very near future went underreported throughout 2015.  We review the most significant.

Russia’s rise to power: Yes, Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine was widely covered, but far less reported was the major buildup of the Russian military—except, of course, in the New York Analysis of Policy & Government and a small number of specialized publications. The change in the balance of power over recent years has been dramatic.  For the first time in history, the Kremlin has a greater nuclear force than the United States. Thanks to President Obama’s inexplicable and barely noted withdrawal of all American tanks from Europe (a few have since been returned) Moscow now has a significant advantage in conventional power in the European theater as well.  Putin’s reach extends far beyond Europe.  His nuclear bombers have resumed cold war patrols over the U.S. coastlines, as has his submarines. Combined with military agreements with Cuba and Nicaragua, the threat has been brought to America’s doorstep.

Mitt Romney, who noted this turn of events during his failed 2012 Presidential bid, was mocked at the time for his prediction.

China’s ascension to military dominance in Asia—and beyond. China’s aggressive acts, its establishment of military bases on rocky outcroppings in vital shipping lanes, and the intimidation of its neighbors were reported.  But little discussion, again except in specialty sites such as these pages, was held about why Beijing was able to do so without fear of retribution.  The fact is, China’s military has leaped to superpower status, and it is still growing dramatically.  It’s navy already has more submarines than its U.S. counterpart. By 2020, its fleet will be larger than America’s. There are consistent reports that its nuclear forces, secreted in a vast network of underground tunnels, may be the largest on the planet.  Its cyber warfare forces are vast and actively assault western military, civilian and corporate sites consistently. By stealing technological secrets from the West, Beijing has been able to construct a very highly advanced military at a fraction of the cost to U.S. taxpayers.

The new Axis of Evil.  The United States defeated the Soviet Union in the Cold War in part because of the Reagan military buildup, as well as the maintenance of a strong system of alliances and the cooperation of China. The tables have been turned.  China and Russia are now allies, training jointly in Asia, Europe, and elsewhere.  They are allied with Iran, North Korea, Cuba, Nicaragua, and others. The United States, over the past several years, has weakened its alliances both through diplomatic errors and outright policy reversals on the part of the Obama White House, as well as a growing international sense that the USA is no longer a reliable partner when the chips are down.  Certainly, the diminished pentagon budget plays a role in the worries America’s allies have in Washington’s ability, and willingness, to its treaty commitments.

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As the New York Analysis previously reported, 31,072 American scientists, including 9,029 with PH.D’s, have opposed the views of those who claim human factors have altered the climate.

They were joined by those concerned that unproven and faulty global warming theories are being used as an excuse to enhance governmental authority, establish a more centralized economy, and enrich special interests. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce cites the astounding cost of the White House’s preferences, estimated at $50 billion annually.

With both the President and the media favoring the views of the climate change adherents, relatively little unbiased information has been made available to the public.

Even some advocates of global warming have objected to governmental intervention. Professor Richard Lindzen of MIT, quoted in infowars.com,  notes that the changes due to global warming are too small to account for.  He stated that in the January 2014 article that  “Global warming, climate change, all these things are just a dream come true for politicians. The opportunities for taxation, for policies, for control, for crony capitalism are just immense, you can see their eyes bulge.”

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Key challenges await White House attempt to regulate guns

President Obama is considering unilateral action regulating the personal possession of weapons. Today, he is meeting with Attorney General Loretta Lynch to discuss the matter, and review how he can utilize executive power to take action without the consent of Congress.

Both sides of the issue will weigh in on the expected proposals, but there will be an unfortunate lack of discussion on the only two truly relevant issues: One, will the restrictions actually deter those who would use weapons for bad purposes, or will the measures simply serve to deprive honest citizens of their Second Amendment rights? Second, can restrictions be emplaced in the absence of a full-fledged Constitutional Amendment?

One of the obstacles to a meaningful dialogue about the role of guns in modern society is the refusal of gun ownership opponents to discuss a key problem of regulation. Law-abiding citizens will obey such measures; those who would abuse weapons will not.  It is evident that a perpetrator who will rob, rape, or kill will not be even remotely concerned with any gun possession or sale restrictions. On the other hand, many proponents of the retention and exercise of Second Amendment rights vehemently oppose any consideration of measures such as registration or gun show exemptions, appropriately fearful that such measures are the start of a slippery slope that eventually will lead to banning all weapons possession, abrogating one of the ten sections of the Bill of Rights.

Depending on the specifics of the President’s plan, his actions might be in defiance of the Second Amendment, which establishes the right to gun ownership, and a host of Supreme Court decisions which have affirmed that right for private citizens. Other jurisdictions, such as Chicago, have alleged that their restrictions didn’t violate the Second Amendment but merely provided common-sense restrictions. The effect, however, was a violation of the Bill of Rights.

(In  2010’s McDonald v. Chicago,  the U.S. Supreme Court determined that the Second Amendment applies to the individual states. The Court held that the right of an individual to “keep and bear arms” protected by the Second Amendment is incorporated by the Due Process Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment and applies to the states. The Supreme Court verdict rejected a lower court ruling that upheld a Chicago ordinance banning the possession of handguns as well as other gun regulations affecting rifles and shotguns.)

A unilateral action on the part of the White House could also violate the Administrative Procedure Act,  which mandates that proposed actions be made available to the public for comment before becoming effective.

The White House most probably will describe its’ action as not restricting the Second Amendment, but as providing measures to close loopholes in areas such as registration and the ability to sell in certain types of forums. Opponents of the President will note that the Executive Branch of government does not have the authority to enact measures which are legislative in nature, and which could essentially “chill” or limit a Constitutional right.

One of the most recent decisions of the U.S. Supreme Court on point was the verdict in District of Columbia et al. v. Heller, which held that “The Second Amendment protects an individual right to possess a firearm unconnected with service in a militia, and to use that arm for traditionally lawful purposes, such as self-defense within the home.”
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Attempts to limit gun ownership through executive action also would present a conflict with the  Constitutional doctrine of the separation of powers. Unilateral action by the President would face an overturn by the Supreme Court. As Article 1, Section 8, Clause 18 of the Constitution clearly notes, The Congress shall have Power To …make all Laws which shall be necessary and proper for carrying into Execution the foregoing Powers, and all other Powers vested by this Constitution in the Government of the United States, or in any Department or Officer thereof. There is no provision granting the President the power to establish new laws, or revise existing ones, or to enact regulations or other measures which have the same effect as a law.

Even absent the Second Amendment, serious legal Constitutional questions could be argued against any federal prohibition against gun ownership.  The Ninth Amendment states:

“The enumeration in the Constitution, of certain rights, shall not be construed to deny or disparage others retained by the people.”

A further limit on Washington’s ability to do so can be found in the Tenth Amendment:

“The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people.”

Clearly, the question of gun ownership is politically contentious. Just as clear, however, is the reality that the Constitutional and legal issues have already been settled.  The U.S. Supreme Court has ruled on a number of occasions that citizens have a Second Amendment right which cannot be abrogated by anything less than a full-fledged Constitutional revision.  Any action by the President (or Congress) to do so establishes an extremely dangerous precedent. Further, executive action which is, in essence, legislative in nature is a violation of the doctrine of separation of powers.  The Executive Branch of the federal government is designed to administer, not make, law.

Critics of weapon ownership point to several high-profile mass shootings as a justification for their goal, but ignore common denominators such as untreated mental illness and terrorism that are the actual explanations for the heinous acts. Accidental deaths are also cited as a reason, but, as noted by Gun Facts  “Firearm misuse causes only a small number of accidental deaths in the U.S.  For example, compared to being accidentally killed by a firearm, you are: Five times more likely to burn to death; Five times more likely to drown; 17 times more likely to be poisoned; 17 times more likely to fall to your death; and 68 times more likely to die in an automobile accident.”

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Obama places needs of immigrants above U.S. Citizens

There is growing concern that the Obama Administration places its international agenda above the needs of the nation it was elected to serve. A prime example can be seen in the realm of employment.

Americans needing unemployment insurance benefits rose recently to the highest levels in half a year, reports the U.S. Department of Labor .   “In the week ending December 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 287,000, an increase of 20,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level of 267,000. The 4-week moving average was 277,000, an increase of 4,500 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 272,500. There were no special factors impacting this week’s initial claims.”

The prospects for improvement in the jobs picture in 2016 is not promising.  Yahoo  business notes that “Many economists expect a slower pace of job market improvement in 2016.”

Additional troubling factors include the fact that many of the jobs created in recent years are low-paying, benefit-less positions replacing well-paying jobs offering full benefits.

While Americans continue to file for unemployment benefits or take employment at far lesser pay, President Obama continues to encourage immigration. For illegal immigration, Washington continues to tolerate inadequate border security and a lack of deportation actions for illegal arrivals. For legal immigrants, the provision of benefits and work permits provides increased competition for both benefits and jobs for U.S. citizens.

The U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services agency   states: “The United States welcomes thousands of foreign workers in multiple occupations or employment categories every year. These include artists, researchers, cultural exchange participants, information technology specialists, religious workers, investors, scientists, athletes, nurses, agricultural workers and others.”

The Washington Times  notes that “net international migration is expected to add one person to the U.S. population every 29 seconds.”

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Despite the White House’s opening of relations with Cuba, the island continues to endure harsh repression from the Castro regime and a depressed economy. As a consequence, as reported in the Telegraph, “A year after relations with America began to thaw, people are leaving the island in droves, impatient at the speed of change…”

President Obama also advocates allowing up to 10,000 Syrian refugees into the U.S., despite security concerns about terrorism.

That welcome is about to be expanded. Breitbart eports that “President Barack Obama is preparing a colossal new executive action that could print-up work permits for a huge number of foreign white-collar graduates every year, above and beyond the levels set by Congress. This executive action…directly bypasses Congressional lawmakers…it will certainly raise new security concerns as it covers categories of immigration utilized by migrants from the Middle East and nearby regions. The 181-page rule focuses primarily on giving work-permits to foreign college-grads who will compete against Americans for white collar jobs, despite the large number of American graduates now stuck in lower-wage positions and struggling to pay off college debts. The rule will also make each foreign graduate much cheaper for U.S. employers to hire than many U.S.-born college grads.”

The British newspaper Daily Mail  reports that “up to 34 million blank ‘green cards’ and work permits have been  ordered.”

Much of the President’s plan is done without the consent of the legislative branch. US News  recently noted “in his efforts to work around Congress, Obama has made the aggressive use of executive power, particularly on immigration, an increasingly effective and politically accepted presidential tool.”

Writing in Roll Call,  Rep. Lou Barletta (R-Pa) states: “We have immigration laws in this country for two basic reasons: to preserve American jobs and to protect national security. President Barack Obama’s unlawful executive actions to grant amnesty to at least 5 million illegal immigrants violate both of those principles. Any objective review must find that the president’s policies have placed the concerns of those who have broken our laws ahead of the interests of citizens and legal residents of the United States… Employment is difficult enough to find for millions of Americans and legal residents who woke up this morning without a pay check. On top of that hardship, the president has now introduced millions of new applicants who will compete for jobs that are already scarce. It is difficult to imagine how such a policy is beneficial to American workers…Worse, the president has laid out the welcome mat for anyone around the world who seeks illegal access to the interior of the United States.”

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Happy New Year from the New York Analysis of Policy and Government

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Terror threat high for tonight’s New Year’s Eve celebrations

Throughout both the United States and Europe, threats against New Year’s Eve celebrations are being taken seriously.

Within the USA, concerns are mounting that terrorists may have entered the nation through the southern border, where illegal immigration is widespread. According to the Washington Times “The Border Patrol nabbed two Pakistani men with ties to terrorism at the U.S.-Mexico border in September in the latest instance of illegal immigrants from so-called “special interest countries” using the southern border as a point of entry to the U.S. Muhammad Azeem and Mukhtar Ahmad, both in their 20s and from Gujrat, were caught Sept. 20 by agents south of San Diego and just over the international border from Tijuana. When agents checked their identities through databases they got hits on both of them: Mr. Ahmad popped up as an associate of a known or suspected terrorist, while Mr. Azeem’s information had been shared by a foreign government for intelligence purposes.”

According to The Source “Federal, state and local authorities have heightened security in many highly populated locations that are expected on New Year’s Eve, including Times Square and the Rose Bowl party in Los Angeles.” Security is also being tightened in the nation’s capital. “In lieu of the attacks in Paris, San Bernardino and elsewhere, the FBI is increasing agents and staff in some of its 24-hour command centers around the country, including New York, Washington and Los Angeles. NYPD reports it will have 6,000 police near Times Square, the largest deployment ever of its type. Officials say their areas of concern always focus on so-called soft targets, including large gatherings and mass transit. Senior U.S. officials say the number of probes shows the way ISIS has used technology to enhance terrorist threats. Instead of vetting recruits and carefully planning major attacks as Al-Qaeda and other groups have done, ISIS uses a diffuse-propaganda strategy to encourage its recruits to be self-starters.”

The U.S. State Department issued a travel alert last month, stressing that “Current information suggests that ISIL (aka Da’esh), al-Qa’ida, Boko Haram, and other terrorist groups continue to plan terrorist attacks in multiple regions.  These attacks may employ a wide variety of tactics, using conventional and non-conventional weapons and targeting both official and private interests. Authorities believe the likelihood of terror attacks will continue as members of ISIL/Da’esh return from Syria and Iraq.  Additionally, there is a continuing threat from unaffiliated persons planning attacks inspired by major terrorist organizations but conducted on an individual basis.  Extremists have targeted large sporting events, theatres, open markets, and aviation services.”
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According to Stratfor  “Authorities across Europe have issued warnings and increased security efforts in light of intelligence indicating that jihadists may be planning attacks… Alerts have extended beyond Europe, too: Russia has canceled New Year’s festivities in Red Square, and the United States and the United Kingdom have issued warnings to citizens living in Beijing to avoid the commercial Sanlitun area of the city over Christmas. There is also concern regarding large New Year’s Eve gatherings in New York and other U.S. cities. “Warnings such as these are not new. Similar warnings have emerged nearly every holiday season since 2000, and they are not entirely without merit. Al Qaeda attempted to pull off a spectacular multi-continent attack at the turn of the millennium and then plotted an attack against the Strasbourg Christmas Market in 2000. The Pan Am Flight 103 bombing and the failed shoe and underwear bombings also happened on or near the holidays.”

The Wall Street Journal  reports that “Belgian officials…cancelled the capital city’s main New Year’s Eve fireworks display because of a threat of terrorism…Belgian Prime Minister Charles Michel, appearing on RTBF, the Belgian national broadcaster, said the celebration was cancelled in light of “a possible and credible threat…In France, investigators are probing cellphone traffic between the Nov. 13 attackers and an operative who was located in Molenbeek while the Paris massacre was under way, according to police and the Paris prosecutors office…Data recovered from a cellphone used by gunmen who struck the Bataclan concert hall, killing 90 people, showed the attackers made calls and several text messages to a prepaid Belgian phone that investigators tracked to the Brussels’ district of Molenbeek, according to a report in French daily Le Monde that was confirmed by a police officer.”

The UK’s Express newspaper reports that “London has been placed on high alert amid fears a terror attack could strike on New Year’s Eve.”

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Quick Analysis

2016 Defense Budget exposes U.S. to danger

Defense spending for the next fiscal year, excluding veterans’ benefits, was finalized this month at $572.7 billion, a $94 billion decrease over the amount spent in 2009, when President Obama entered office.   Defense News projects that the pre-Obama spending levels will not be reached, if at all, until well after 2020.

A Defense Dept. review of the budget emphasizes what the FY 2016 deal does not adequately address, including:

NEAR TERM: — Balancing capability, capacity and readiness;

— Terrorism, instability across the Middle East and North Africa;

— Rising pressure from Russia and China;

— Globalization of advanced technology;

— Rebalancing to the Asia-Pacific region;

— Cyber defense, attribution and response; and
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— Short-term budget deals, constrained resources and fiscal uncertainty.

LONG TERM: Priorities and uncertainties for fiscal 2017 and beyond include, among others, McCord said, nation-states like Russia, China, Iran and North Korea; ISIL and the global counterterrorism challenge; balancing capability, capacity and readiness; compensation and retention for today’s force; the Force of the Future; innovation in investments and practices; operating in space and cyberspace; and modernizing the nuclear deterrent in the 2020s and 2030s.

As noted by the Department of Defense, reduced support for the military comes at a time when Russia and China have both dramatically increased their military spending and aggressiveness, made significant technological strides, and engaged in aggressive actions.  It also comes as North Korea moves rapidly ahead in nuclear armaments, and the threat from Islamic terrorists escalates to extremely dangerous new levels.

PressTV reports that “Russia’s Defense Ministry has announced an increase in future military equipment procurement…The announced plans included the annual purchase of some 200 planes and helicopters, up to 30 ships and submarines, and around 600 armored vehicles, the UPI reported on Tuesday.”The state program for armaments extending till 2021 will increase the share of modern weapons and military hardware to no less than 70 percent,” said Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces General Valery Gerasimov during a press briefing in Moscow.

China, by contrast, continues its rapid escalation in military spending. According to a CNBC report  “Beijing’s defense spending is estimated to grow 7 percent annually until 2020…By 2020, the center of gravity of the global defense spending landscape is expected to have continued its gradual shift away from the developed economies of Western Europe and North America and towards emerging markets, particularly in Asia.”

In addition to Beijing’s announced spending, a Quartz.com reports that “China is responsible for 30% of the world’s secretive defense spending,reports Transparency International (TI), a Berlin-based anti-corruption NGO. Secretive spending, defined by TI as “military expenditure where no meaningful details are released either to the public or parliament,” is leading to corruption at home and mistrust in the Asia-Pacific region that could destabilize the area, the organization says… No information is available on acquisition planning, and only broad details are disclosed on actual and planned purchases.”

An analysis by The Week  opines: “The defense budget is often constrained for economic or political reasons. The gap between what the United States actually spends and what it takes to fully resource and execute the strategy is risk. Unfortunately, risk is difficult to measure, but all too easy to ignore. A particular threat may be out of sight and out of mind, but it still exists and could still harm a vital interest of the United States. It’s similar to buying cheap car insurance. It may save a few bucks and turn out fine as long as you never have an accident. That is what it means to accept risk… Since the imposition of the Budget Control Act in 2011, the base defense budget (excluding war costs) has gone down by 15 percent in real terms, while the threats to U.S. vital interests have, if anything, increased. The Heritage Foundation’s 2015 Index of U.S. Military Strength assessed the current capacity, capability, and readiness of the U.S. military as “marginal.”

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Quick Analysis

Why America’s middle class is vanishing

In Part 1 of our review of the plight of America’s middle class, we reviewed the information indicating how middle income families are increasingly scarce. In today’s report, we look at why this is happening. 

Blame for the sharp reduction in America’s middle class has been placed on misguided federal policies.  The Daily Signal opines that “Americans of all income levels would benefit from faster economic growth that raises wages. Unfortunately, wages are being held back by the very policies supported by those criticizing slow wage growth. Liberals across the country supported the misnamed Affordable Care Act (aka Obamacare). The law’s mandates have made health coverage more expensive for both individuals and businesses…when benefit costs rise, employers cut wages. Empirical research confirms this prediction. Ironically, some of the most rigorous evidence for offsetting wage cuts comes from Jonathan Gruber, the Obamacare architect who boasted the health law takes advantage of Americans’ ‘stupidity.”

Resrearch from the Heritage Foundation  concurs. “The curse of the U.S. economy today is the downward trend in “take-home pay.” This is the most crucial economic indicator for most Americans, but when President Obama said in a recent speech at Northwestern that nearly every economic measure shows improvement from five years ago, he conspicuously left this one out.

“Most workers’ pay has not kept up with inflation for at least six years. Even as hiring picked up … Why aren’t wages rising? There are several reasons, including that many jobs today don’t pay as well as the ones lost during the recession. ObamaCare has made health insurance more expensive for businesses…and that takes a bite out of take-home pay. Yet one factor is often overlooked: the tax increase on “the rich” at the beginning of 2013…The overall effect of the 2013 tax hike was not minor. The highest income-tax rate on small business income has risen to almost 42% from 35%. That’s a 20% spike in the small business tax for successful companies. When the government takes more, there is less to plow back into the business or invest elsewhere.

“A comparison with the Reagan years when investment taxes were cut tells the story. From 1983 to 1988, private investment averaged 12% of GDP, one-third faster than the 9% since 2009 under Obama. In the aftermath of the Kennedy, Clinton and George W. Bush capital-gains tax cuts (1998-2006), the investment rate rose sharply and immediately.

“What does investment have to do with stagnant wages? Everything. As Paul Samuelson, the premiere Keynesian economist who sold more economics textbooks than anyone in history, once explained: “What happens to the wage rate when each person works with more capital goods? Because each worker has more capital to work with, his or her marginal product [or productivity] rises. Therefore, the competitive real wage rises as workers become worth more to capitalists and meet with spirited bidding up of their market wage rates.”

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“The high corporate tax rate is also holding the economy back. Twenty years ago the U.S. rate was about at the international average, but now we are about 15 percentage points above the rate of most of our competitors and nearly three times higher than countries like Ireland. The American Enterprise Institute has found that “a 1% increase in corporate tax rates is associated with nearly a 1% drop in wage rates” because when corporations invest less here at home, worker productivity suffers.”

An American Thinker article suggests that “The U.S. middle class is sinking into government-provided economic quicksand. U.S. living standards have declined ever since 1970…the two-earner family lost ground … Typical U.S. households earned less in 2009 than a decade earlier; median household income is still declining. Even with two earners, many live closer to the poverty line than did families in the ’70s. Middle-class family savings turned into consumer and mortgage debt, which reached 134% of household income at the end of 2007.

“A middle-class key, and a requirement for its upper half, is a degree. For those whose parents couldn’t afford it, “working your way through college” was practicable and so common that it became a cliché, but by 2008, ABC News said, “Soaring Tuition Pushes College Out of Reach.” Not only lower-middle, but also many upper-middle-class parents can’t afford college for their kids. Graduates are often burdened with school loan debt. In short, life has been growing tougher for the middle class, with a recent kick from the ailing economy.

“Considering that, what’s ahead? Middle-class wealth was personal savings, homeownership, and a pension, stemming in most cases from a decent job. Savings are now debt, homes are mortgaged and losing value, and the private-sector pension has devolved into a 401(k) with shrunken assets. Government pensions face shrunken assets, too. Everyone knows that Social Security is in the red (seven years early), and the government is broke. Unemployment is outlasting previous declines (excluding the 1930s), and the current 9.7% rate has been “adjusted” by the government. At Shadowstats, where readjusted numbers are more realistic, unemployment shows close to 21%. Those unemployed add another economic burden for the government (i.e., taxpayers), or for families. …

“When most middle class wealth is built on jobs, no jobs equals no middle class. So will the jobs be back soon? Short answer: No. And the main reason, politicians’ speeches to the contrary being lies, is deliberate government policy.”