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Bipartisan Concern over Iran Nuclear Deal

21 Democrat Senators and 35 of their Republican colleagueshave written to the President  asking him to act against Iran’s nuclear-capable missile tests, a violation, they maintain, of the nuclear deal. The Democrats’ letter, quoted in The Hill http://thehill.com/blogs/floor-action/senate/263686-senate-dems-push-obama-to-act-on-iran-missile-tests states:

“Such action is essential to make clear to Iran’s leaders that there will be consequences for future violations of UN Security Council Resolutions and that the United States reserves the right under the [nuclear agreement] to take unilateral action in response to this and other significant actions by Iran in the areas of ballistic missile development, terrorism and human rights,”

The President has refused. The actions highlight the problems with the agreement between Iran and the P5+1 countries. The most comprehensive analysis of the controversial deal was that provided by the American Foreign Policy Council. http://www.afpc.org/ We conclude our two-part summary of that report http://www.afpc.org/publication_listings/viewPolicyPaper/2926 today.

Anticipating the Consequences

There are indications that the Islamic Republic has already begun to ramp up its defense expenditures… it has initiated major new procurement talks with arms suppliers such as Russia and China, and is now poised to acquire new aircraft, air defenses and components. Such acquisitions will lead, over time, to a significant strengthening of Iran’s ability to project power into its immediate periphery, as well as its capacity to threaten and/or challenge its strategic rivals. Even before then, however, the perception of growing Iranian military power will begin to have pronounced effects on the geopolitical balance of power in the greater Middle East.
A new rogue state patron. Although it has received comparatively little attention to date, one of the most significant consequences of the economic windfall inherent in the JCPOA will be its impact on the foreign allies and strategic partners of the Islamic Republic. This list includes the “Bolivarian” nations of Venezuela, Bolivia and Ecuador in Latin America, the Stalinist regime of Kim Jong-un in North Korea, and the dictatorship of Omar el-Bashir in the Sudan, among others – all of which currently maintain significant political, economic and military ties to the Iranian regime. …An associated danger is the potential provision by Iran of strategic assistance to other aspiring nuclear weapons states; by allowing Iran to keep a large enrichment program, the JCPOA increases the risk that Iran could transfer enrichment technology and materials to other states or even non-state actors.

Stepped up Iranian proliferation. President Obama has publicly asserted that the JCPOA closes of “all pathways” by which the Iranian regime can acquire a nuclear capability. This, however, is not accurate. The agreement concerns itself overwhelmingly with the overt means by which Iran might develop a nuclear capability: by building one. A parallel, covert “pathway” – involving procurement of nuclear-related components and materiel from foreign suppliers – remains open. As such, the practical effect of the JCPOA, once implemented, will be to facilitate covert procurement by the Islamic Republic.

Moreover, given the expanded resources soon to be at Iran’s disposal, its purchasing power for such activities will expand exponentially. Willing foreign suppliers exist at both the state and non-state level. At the state level, Iran’s ongoing – and extensive – strategic alliance with the North Korean regime poses considerable future risks, insofar as nuclear and ballistic missile cooperation between the two countries has a long history and is ongoing.

Similarly, multiple private entities involved in Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs continue to operate within the People’s Republic of China, and have been estimated to provide as much as 90 percent of the necessary “goods and technology” for both. As such, nonproliferation experts have warned that “[t]here is considerable risk that Tehran could covertly procure nuclear materials from Chinese brokers and circumvent a nuclear deal by secretly creating a new parallel nuclear program.” At the same time, Iran will have both greater incentive and greater capability to engage in “offshore” development of a nuclear capability, relying on its existing strategic partnerships abroad to continue nuclear development outside of territorial Iran. Here, too, Iran’s contacts with North Korea represent a source of serious concern, with one or more of the nuclear tests carried out by the DPRK over the past decade believed to have been carried out at least in part to test Iranian capabilities.

A regional proliferation cascade. In the late 2000s, worries over Iran’s burgeoning nuclear capability had prompted the beginnings of a regional proliferation “cascade,” as vulnerable regional states moved ahead with the acquisition of strategic counterweights to Iran’s emerging nuclear capability… Thirteen other countries in the greater Middle East were in various stages of nuclear acquisition, with most doing so specifically in response to Iran’s nuclear effort… growing uncertainty over the regional strategic balance in the Middle East – coupled with fears of Iran’s imperial ambitions – has revived the interest of regional powers in acquiring their own nuclear deterrent. Most prominently, Saudi Arabia, Iran’s long-time ideological rival in the Islamic world, has made clear that, should Iran move toward the creation of a nuclear weapon, “we would do that also…” Other countries can be expected to follow suit, given both the inherent flaws in the JCPOA and the inability of the Obama administration to provide adequate security guarantees against the emergence of a nuclear Iran…

A slower, but stronger, Iranian nuclear program

The particulars of the JCPOA confirm that the initial objective of Western diplomacy with Iran – the “rollback” of the Islamic Republic’s nuclear infrastructure – has not been attained. To the contrary, the existing terms of the agreement will actually help Iran to develop a stronger nuclear program over time…

Managing the Fallout

The foregoing makes abundantly clear that passage of the JCPOA does not signal an end to the Iranian challenge confronting the United States, but rather a new – and arguably even more challenging – phase in that contest. America’s strategy must change accordingly, and should do so in the following areas:

Tracking Iranian money The United States and its partners…need to focus on how to prevent post-agreement Iranian money from migrating into the coffers of Hezbollah and other terrorist actors or from fueling expanded nuclear procurement and proliferation…

Blacklisting the IRGC With the exception of its Supreme Leader, there is no more important political actor in Iran than the regime’s clerical army, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (Sepāh-e Pāsdārān-e Enqelāb-e Eslāmi). … it will therefore emerge as a major beneficiary of any sanctions relief received by the Islamic Republic, as well as becoming disproportionately enriched by the resumption of trade between Iran and potential trading partners in Europe and Asia. To limit this benefit, the United States should move resolutely to limit the IRGC’s ability to access the international economy…

Ensuring Iranian compliance
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Iran’s anticipated violations of the JCPOA in the near future are not likely to include an obvious “sprint” to the nuclear finish line in the form of major, sustained violations of the terms of the deal. Rather, it is far more likely to “inch out,” testing the resolve of Western nations to hold it to account over numerous small infractions… Indeed, such violations are believed to be occurring already…

By minimizing such instances as immaterial and defending Iran against criticism from the press, the White House has made clear that … does not currently possess the tools to exact tactical penalties from the Islamic Republic for minor infractions without torpedoing the nuclear deal as a whole. And because it does not, the White House is incentivized to turn a blind eye to instances of Iranian cheating.

Enhancing deterrence against Iran

…the danger of a breakout remains a real one. Moreover, the danger of an Iranian “dash” for the bomb becomes more acute as we move further into the future, and Iran’s nuclear program increases in both sophistication and maturity. The Obama administration has expressed its support for means of deterring Iran “from ever obtaining a nuclear weapon,” … Yet it so far has not undertaken concrete steps to communicate to the Iranian regime that it is prepared to do so

As former Administration offcials Dennis Ross and David Petraeus have outlined, one measure that the United States could take would be to provide Israel with ordinance capable of destroying Iranian nuclear facilities: Beyond bolstering Israel’s ability to act unilaterally to prevent Iranian “breakout,” however, the United States also needs to articulate a clear, unambiguous deterrence posture regarding its readiness to use resolute force to prevent Iran’s acquisition of an offensive nuclear capability, either during the lifespan of the JCPOA or afterwards. Iran must be put on notice in concrete terms that the United States is prepared to prevent the emergence of a nuclear-armed Iran by any means necessary.

Intrinsic to this declaratory posture is a recapitalization of American defense capabilities. The U.S. military now finds itself at its lowest force strength since the end of World War II. Existing budgetary constraints have severely impacted both the readiness and power projection capabilities of American forces. This state of affairs calls into question the ability of the United States to credibly assure the protection of allies in the event of hostilities with Iran, or undertake unilateral military action against the Islamic Republic in the event of material breach of the JCPOA or some other casus belli. A recapitalization of the U.S. military writ large, including a strengthening of the nuclear triad, must become a national priority at the earliest possible time.

Strengthening missile defense capabilities

Conspicuous in their absence from the terms of the JCPOA are meaningful restrictions on the size and sophistication of Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal…

To guard against this threat, the United States will need to significantly expand and strengthen its investments in Middle Eastern missile defense capabilities….

Preserving Iran’s democratic potential

Already ranked among the world’s most repressive regimes, the past several years have seen a deepening crackdown on human rights, freedom of expression and political choice within the Islamic Republic…

Domestic conditions within Iran should be of significant concern to American policymakers. The Islamic Republic’s nearly 82 million-person population is overwhelmingly youthful, educated and westward-looking. While Iran’s current clerical regime has made no secret of its ongoing animus to the United States, notwithstanding the passage of the JCPOA, this “other” Iran holds out the promise of a more durable and harmonious relationship with the West. But the JCPOA imperils Iran’s democratic potential, because it strengthens the current Iranian government at the expense of its captive population… In response, Congress will need to act more resolutely than ever before, through both public statements and concrete legislation, to shine a spotlight on Iran’s human rights abuses and to penalize the Iranian government for its repression of democracy at home.

Protecting American outreach…in the wake of the JCPOA, there is a danger that America’s voice will be muted – if not silenced outright… While the White House has given no indication that it is prepared to do so, Congress should be prepared for this to emerge as a demand of the Iranian regime and take proactive steps to preserve and ultimately to strengthen the ability of America’s public diplomacy outlets to communicate with the Iranian people – even as it continues to press for a robust, coherent strategy to underpin this outreach. Simultaneously, the United States needs to increase its investment in Internet freedom in Iran.

THE ROAD AHEAD

While a nuclear deal with Iran has now been struck, the broader strategic challenge that Iran poses to American interests and allies persists. Resolute American action is necessary to prevent Iranian cheating during the time that the JCPOA is in force, an Iranian nuclear breakout thereafter, and adverse effects stemming from Iran’s acquisition of the extensive sanctions relief inherent in the agreement. Currently, the United States lacks both the capacity and credibility to respond to the potential consequences of the nuclear agreement with Iran. We believe that altering this status quo must become a priority for U.S. lawmakers in the months and years ahead.

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Unassimilated Immigrants Cause Disruption in Europe

In the aftermath of the horrific incident in Cologne, Germany on New Year’s Eve, in which approximately 1,000 men, described in many sources as recent asylum seekers from the Middle East, sexually attacked and robbed in excess of 200 women, some German politicians chose instead to criticize the action of those who brought the crimes to the public’s attention as “right wing rhetoric,” as noted in the Daily Mail.  Politically, that mindset is reminiscent of President Obama’s comments following the San Bernardino terrorist shooting, which he used to concentrate more on his gun control proposals and on his belief, often stated but with little provided evidence, that there is a significant anti-Muslim backlash threat in the U.S., rather than on the growing threat of violent terrorists’ assaults.

The New Year’s Eve attack was another recent European event calling into question the European Union’s  open-borders policy, known as the Schengen Agreement. Originally designed to promote the passport-free flow of people within nations participating in the agreement, it now faces substantial revision or elimination as a result of attacks by Islamic extremists, such as the November 13 attacks in Paris which killed 130 people.

As noted by the BBC “in 2015 the influx of more than a million migrants – many of them Syrian refugees – greatly increased the pressure on Schengen. One after another, EU states re-imposed temporary border controls. In December the European Commission proposed a major amendment to Schengen, expected to become law soon.”

The Council on Foreign Relations reports that “Political upheaval in the Middle East, Africa, and South Asia is reshaping migration trends in Europe. The number of illegal border-crossing detections in the EU started to surge in 2011, as thousands of Tunisians started to arrive at the Italian island of Lampedusa following the onset of the Arab Spring. Sub-Saharan Africans who had previously migrated to Libya followed in 2011–2012, fleeing unrest in the post-Qaddafi era. The most recent surge in detections along the EU’s maritime borders has been attributed to the growing numbers of Syrian, Afghan, and Eritrean migrants and refugees. [There are]… estimates that more than 464,000 migrants have crossed into Europe by sea for the first nine months of 2015. Syrians fleeing their country’s four-and-a-half-year-old civil war made up the largest group (39 percent). Afghans looking to escape the ongoing war with Taliban rebels (11 percent), and Eritreans fleeing forced labor (7 percent) made up the second and third largest groups of migrants, respectively. Deteriorating security and grinding poverty in Iraq, Nigeria, Pakistan, Somalia, and Sudan have also contributed to the migrant influx.

The questioning of immigration policy concerned more than just several recent incidents that were the actions of Islamic extremists. Sweden has become a major case study in the results of allowing entry to a substantial number of immigrants that do not assimilate readily into local cultural norms and standards.

Sweden made a specific political decision to allow an unprecedented and vast increase in immigration. Since that decision was made, reports The Gatestone Institute:

“Violent crime has increased by 300%. If one looks at the number of rapes, however, the increase is even worse. In 1975, 421 rapes were reported to the police; in 2014, it was 6,620. That is an increase of 1,472%. Sweden is now number two on the global list of rape countries. According to a survey from 2010, Sweden, with 53.2 rapes per 100,000 inhabitants, is surpassed only by tiny Lesotho in Southern Africa, with 91.6 rapes per 100,000 inhabitants.

“Over the past 10-15 years, immigrants have mainly come from Muslim countries such as Iraq, Syria and Somalia. Michael Hess, a local politician from Sweden Democrat Party, encouraged Swedish journalists to get acquainted with Islam’s view of women, in connection with the many rapes that took place in Cairo’s Tahrir Square during the “Arab Spring”…Hess notes that “There is a strong connection between rapes in Sweden and the number of immigrants from MENA-countries [Middle East and North Africa].”This remark led to Michael Hess being charged with “denigration of ethnic groups” [hets mot folkgrupp], a crime in Sweden. In May last year, he was handed a suspended jail sentence and a fine — the suspension was due to the fact that he had no prior convictions. The verdict has been appealed to a higher court.

“Whether or not they measured by the number of convicted rapists or men suspected of rape, men of foreign extraction were represented far more than Swedes… A new trend reached Sweden with full force over the past few decades: gang rape — virtually unknown before in Swedish criminal history. The number of gang rapes increased spectacularly between 1995 and 2006. Since then no studies of them have been undertaken.
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The Alliance of European Conservatives and Reformists (AECR) is a conservative and euro-sceptic European political party, defending broader conservative and economically liberal principles. It has twenty-two member parties, as well as four independent members, spread across twenty countries.

The AECR believes that the dramatic influx of people from the Middle East into German has presented vast problems.

“When Angela Merkel announced that Germany would welcome all that sought refuge at its border in September 2015, the move was celebrated as a sign of Germany’s progressive leadership. Today, the reality of inciting rather than discouraging large scale migration via treacherous and criminal channels has been tragically well documented.

“A second reality now hitting home is that large-scale uncontrolled migration inevitably leads to host communities feeling some strain as more and more people settle in those areas….

“Following the Paris terror attacks in November, France re-introduced border controls. Germany also, embarrassingly, has had to introduced border controls in 2015 while Austria is going as far as putting up a barbed wire fence along its border with Schengen EU-member Slovenia. The repercussions are also being felt further afield as the migration pushes on northwards.

“Sweden – traditionally one of the most welcoming of EU countries – [has] began carrying out ID-checks on its border with Denmark. Denmark, responded by introducing checks at its borders with Germany.”

Although expressing confidence that the threat could be overcome, Pope Francis has warned that the massive wave of Islamic immigrants could pose a threat to the human-centered culture of Europe.

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DHS Attempted to Stonewall Ebola Investigation

According to a worrisome report by the Department of Homeland Security’s (DHS) Office of the Inspector General,  (OIG) DHS’s response to the Ebola epidemic in 2014 was flawed. It also appears that DHS attempted to stonewall the inquiry into its problematic response.

Following the outbreak of the largest Ebola outbreak on record, DHS was tasked with preventing the African outbreak from spreading to the United States, largely by screening passengers at American ports of entry. The OIG found that while the response was timely, DHS failed to provide proper training, appropriate procedures were not consistently followed, and DHS workers themselves did not receive necessary protection.

In September of 2014, the Centers for Disease Control, a division of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), confirmed the first case of Ebola in the United States.  Approximately two weeks later, screening began at five major airports, including NYC’s JFK, Washington-Dulles in Virginia, Newark Liberty in New Jersey, O’Hare in Chicago, and Hartsfield-Jackson in Atlanta.  The screenings eventually spread to all U.S. Ports of Entry, resulting in over 20,000 screenings between October 2014 and June 2015.

The OIG audit revealed that DHS didn’t “ensure sufficient coordination, adequate training, and consistent screening of people arriving at U.S. ports of entry…Coordination between DHS, HHS, and other DHS components was not sufficient to ensure all passenger received full screening.”

Among the specific criticisms contained in the report:

CBP officers did not consistently refer passengers to Ebola screening, even when the travelers self-declared their travel to an Ebola-affected country;

Diplomats, United Nations workers, U.S. Government employees, and other dignitaries were not thoroughly scrutinized;

CBP officers did not consistently receive proper medical clearance, and DHS workers were not consistently protected.

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“During the course of this audit, we [OIG] encountered significant delays, cooperation issues and opposition from both components and Departmental offices.  Audited groups were unwilling to provide requested information in response to briefings and audit findings. The continued delays and resistance to providing responses during this engagement have violated the spirit of the Inspector General Act and have prevented our offices from delivering a timely report to Congress.”

The OIG has made ten recommendations for improvement. They urge stronger cooperation between agencies, better training, more thorough dissemination of information and guidance, more oversight of reporting procedures, and more careful purchasing of equipment.

The OIG’s report, which was brought to the public’s attention by the Washington Free Beacon,  did not cover broader policy issues concerning the federal government’s response to the Ebola outbreak.  Last October, the New York Analysis of Policy & Government noted that there was a lack of candid conversation about how Ebola is spread, and how it could evolve in dangerous ways, such as airborne transmission.  The American public was constantly told not to worry because the contagion is not airborne. Even without that mutation, however, the disease is so virulent that it can exist for hours on surfaces. So if an infected individual sweats, coughs, sneezes, or otherwise leaves any bodily fluid on a site others can touch, it can spread.

Nor has there been adequate discussion about the danger posed by direct flights to or from actively infected areas. Unlike several African nations and other countries including France and the United Kingdom which banned direct flights, the United States, inexplicably, continued them. The CDC’s director Thomas Freidan was asked about this on several occasions, and none of his explanations were even remotely credible. There is no reason that specially prepared charter flights could not have been substituted for any necessary transit to or from West Africa.

The five airports designated for receiving individuals from West Africa, including Kennedy International in New York, Newark Liberty International, Washington Dulles International, O’Hare International in Chicago, and Hartsfield-Jackson International in Atlanta, were both too numerous and located precisely in densely populated areas where the disease could most quickly spread. A more rational move would have been to limit travel, after a suitable quarantine period, to a single reception site in the United States where comprehensive health checks could have been performed.

In a 2010 decision the Obama Administration decided to scrap proposals  first set in place by the Bush Administration in 2005 in response to the potential spread of the Avian flu. It would have given the federal government wider authority to confront the spread of contagious diseases.

Health care workers have discussed fears about the adequacy of their facilities and procedures.  In a Washington Post interview, CDC spokeswoman Abbigail Tumpey admitted that “We as a health care system have to make sure not to let our guard down and be vigilant that patients with Ebola could show up at any U.S. health care facility…”

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Suppressing debate on campus

Recent events at a Yale University free speech conference conjured images of the worst aspects of China’s “Cultural Revolution,” in which independent thought of any sort that differed even minutely from official party doctrine was harshly restricted and severely punished.

The event, which came at a time when conservative-minded students have been substantially pressured to remain silent on many campuses, discussed the necessity of unrestricted discourse and debate. This enraged “progressive” students, who attempted to storm the building where it was being held. When their attempt to do so was halted by security guards, the furious leftist youth, as reported by Jack Fowler of the National Review Institute, resorted to noise-making tactics in an effort to prevent the conference from proceeding. The meeting attendees were forced to leave the premises, and were subjected to a gauntlet of hate-filled rants. The protestors spat on several unlucky participants.

The incident is not an isolated example.

The Foundation for Individual Rights in Education (FIRE) conducted three consecutive national surveys which found that “the majority of our nation’s colleges and universities violate students’ and faculty members’ right to freedom of expression. Of the 364 institutions surveyed … approximately 270 of them—74 percent—maintain policies that clearly restrict speech that would otherwise be protected by the First Amendment. FIRE’s annual report is based on a comprehensive analysis of the policies restricting speech maintained by colleges and universities. In researching school policies for the past seven years, FIRE attorneys have noticed that nearly every speech code—that is, nearly every regulation prohibiting expression that would be constitutionally protected in society at large—is an example of one of several commonly made mistakes in policy language or application.”

According to The College Fix, students who differ with the prevailing leftist views are frequently “smeared, attacked and harassed by the very peers who demand tolerance, inclusion and diversity.”

Socially conservative students are the hardest hit. The Family Foundation  notes that “As academia has embraced the progressive liberal agenda, students who are socially conservative have felt less and less welcome on college campuses. We’ve all heard the horror stories about professors failing students for refusing to back down from their beliefs, but the problem runs deeper than that. The conservative shaming on college campuses has trickled down from the academia and into the brains of the students themselves…Basically, if you are a college student who holds politically conservative beliefs, and in particular social conservative beliefs, you are considered less intelligent than your fellow peers. There aren’t any professors involved in this one: this is all students shaming other students.”

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At least one university has also moved to counter the rising Fascism of the progressive movement on campus. The Committee on Freedom of Expression at the University of Chicago was appointed in July 2014 “in light of recent events nationwide that have tested institutional commitments to free and open discourse.”

The result was a statement of principles in support of free speech, which noted:

“…It is not the proper role of the University to attempt to shield individuals from ideas and opinions they find unwelcome, disagreeable, or even deeply offensive. Although the University greatly values civility, and although all members of the University community share in the responsibility for maintaining a climate of mutual respect, concerns about civility and mutual respect can never be used as a justification for closing off discussion of ideas, however offensive or disagreeable those ideas may be to some members of our community…

“n a word, the University’s fundamental commitment is to the principle that debate or deliberation may not be suppressed because the ideas put forth are thought by some or even by most members of the University community to be offensive, unwise, immoral, or wrong-headed. It is for the individual members of the University community, not for the University as an institution, to make those judgments for themselves, and to act on those judgments not by seeking to suppress speech, but by openly and vigorously contesting the ideas that they oppose. Indeed, fostering the ability of members of the University community to engage in such debate and deliberation in an effective and responsible manner is an essential part of the University’s educational mission…

“Although members of the University community are free to criticize and contest the views expressed on campus, and to criticize and contest speakers who are invited to express their views on campus, they may not obstruct or otherwise interfere with the freedom of others to express views they reject or even loathe. To this end, the University has a solemn responsibility not only to promote a lively and fearless freedom of debate and deliberation, but also to protect that freedom when others attempt to restrict it. As Robert M. Hutchins observed, without a vibrant commitment to free and open inquiry, a university ceases to be a university.”

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China Must Take Responsibility for North Korea’s Nukes

There is a great deal of debate on how to respond to North Korea’s ongoing nuclear weapons and ICBM development.  The irrationality and belligerent attitude of the “Hermit Kingdoms’” leadership make the issue all the more urgent.

The Congressional newspaper The Hill reports that “Senators from both parties are pushing for stronger sanctions against North Korea after the country said it detonated a hydrogen bomb.”

The problem with almost all the proposed responses is that they are aimed at the wrong target, or at the very least, a target that is beyond reasoning with.

A glance at the history of arms control deals with Pyongyang indicates that the North Koreans will only use negotiations as a bargaining chip to gain concessions, then violate the terms of any agreement after getting what they want. China is the only nation with any real influence in the matter, and it has absolutely no intention of using its position to stop the weapons program.

The Arms Control Organization notes that  “For years, the United States and the international community have tried to negotiate an end to North Korea’s nuclear and missile development and its export of ballistic missile technology…The United States has pursued a variety of policy responses to the proliferation challenges posed by North Korea, including military cooperation with U.S. allies in the region, wide-ranging sanctions, and non-proliferation mechanisms such as export controls.

“The United States also engaged in two major diplomatic initiatives in which North Korea [agreed] to abandon its nuclear weapons efforts in return for aid. In 1994, faced with North Korea’s announced intent to withdraw from the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), which requires non-nuclear weapon states to forswear the development and acquisition of nuclear weapons, the United States and North Korea signed the Agreed Framework. Under this agreement, Pyongyang committed to freezing its illicit plutonium weapons program in exchange for aid.

“Following the collapse of this agreement in 2002, North Korea claimed that it had withdrawn from the NPT in January 2003 and once again began operating its nuclear facilities.

“The second major diplomatic effort [was] the Six-Party Talks initiated in August of 2003 which involved China, Japan, North Korea, Russia, South Korea, and the United States. In between periods of stalemate and crisis, those talks arrived at critical breakthroughs in 2005, when North Korea pledged to abandon ‘all nuclear weapons and existing nuclear programs’ and return to the NPT, and in 2007, when the parties agreed on a series of steps to implement that 2005 agreement. Those talks, however, broke down in 2009 following disagreements over verification and an internationally condemned North Korea rocket launch. Pyongyang has since stated that it would never return to the talks and is no longer bound by their agreements. The other five parties state that they remain committed to the talks, and have called for Pyongyang to recommit to its 2005 denuclearization pledge.”
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Writing in Space Daily, Giles Hewitt reports that “There is room to increase pressure by imposing the sort of extensive economic sanctions that helped bring Iran to the negotiating table over its nuclear programme. But to be effective, these would impact Chinese companies and financial institutions that account for the lion’s share of North Korea’s overseas business. China is likely to balk at any such move and Washington would be wary of pushing Beijing at an already sensitive time for relations between the two powers.” [Hewitt declines to note that the Iran deal fails to forbid Tehran from eventually getting atomic weapons, and that Iran has already violated portions of the agreement]… China, meanwhile, is unlikely to back any moves that could genuinely destabilise the regime of North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un, given its overriding fear of a reunified, US-allied Korea directly on its border.

‘China, no matter how strong the language it uses in its criticism on the North, will not join any Security Council punishment that may have a real impact on the North’s regime,’ said South Korea’s former national Security Adviser, Chun Young-Woo.’And North Korea knows that,’ he added.”

Ben Dooley, also writing in Space Daily, believes “China is unlikely to take strong action in response to North Korea’s claimed test of a hydrogen bomb, according to experts who say Beijing prefers the devil it knows to the uncertainty that could follow a confrontation. And whether Pyongyang would even listen is highly questionable, they say… Beijing’s support for Pyongyang gives it particular influence over the hermit kingdom.

“But that is ever less true, experts say… ‘China’s influence on North Korea is becoming weaker and weaker, the main issue is that the North’s leadership do not listen, they are very stubborn’, said Zhu Feng, an expert on international relations. Pyongyang, he added, may believe it can ‘exploit’ its relationship with its main diplomatic protector while Beijing is distracted by tensions with other neighbours and the US in the South China Sea. Beijing — which regularly calls for calm on the Korean peninsula — has become increasingly frustrated with its neighbour’s antics, a feeling undoubtedly exacerbated by its fourth nuclear test.”

Government officials, arms control experts and many pundits are too eager to give a pass to China in their belief that Beijing has no influence.  The facts clearly say otherwise. China could literally bankrupt and starve North Korea with ease, and that gives Beijing enormous influence. Claims that the Chinese leadership fears a unified Korea are accurate, but if that is what keeps Beijing from urging the North from stopping its nuclear program, that could be addressed by using its enormous influence to threaten internal regime change within the North’s Communist Party.

North Korea’s nuclear program helps China. First, it detracts from Beijing’s own enormous strategic weapons development program. Second, it makes China a wanted partner in arms control negotiations in the region. The third reason is speculative, but must nevertheless be carefully considered. If Beijing eventually chooses to damage Japan, the Philippines, or even the United States, a nuclear attack that comes from North Korea would achieve that objective while giving Beijing a way of avoiding blame—and retaliation.

While diplomatic attempts to halt Pyongyang’s atomic program should continue, the US must also strengthen missile defenses for itself and its allies. Further, Washington should inform China that any use of nuclear weapons by North Korea against America or its allies will be construed as an act encouraged, supported, and aided by Beijing.

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Importing Unemployment

In another example of why many Americans believe that elites are not concerned with the average citizen, The White House, supported by academia and big business, is loosening restrictions on noncitizens holding Science, Technology, Engineering and Math (STEM)  jobs.

The controversy concerns H-1B visas, described by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS)  as being used “to employ foreign workers in specialty occupations that require the theoretical or practical application of a body of highly specialized knowledge, including but not limited to: scientists, engineers, or computer programmers.”

In a press release strategically timed during the holidays to avoid much attention, DHS said that the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services Agencies (USCIS) has proposed a rule “that would modernize and improve certain aspects of employment-based nonimmigrant and immigrant visa programs. USCIS is also proposing regulatory amendments to better enable U.S. employers to hire and retain certain foreign workers who are beneficiaries of approved employment-based immigrant visa petitions and are waiting to become lawful permanent residents (LPRs).”

According to The Hill, “The agency said the rules are primarily aimed at helping high-skilled foreign workers who have been approved for a permanent work visa but are still waiting for their green card because of the backlog.’ Simply put, many workers in the immigrant visa process are not free to consider all available employment and career development opportunities,’ DHS said in the proposed rules.”

The Hill reports that DHS believes the change is necessary to “allow certain temporary workers who are on track to become permanent residents to stay beyond the 6-year limit of the H-1B program. The changes would also allow those temporary visa holders and certain other foreign workers to more easily change jobs without fear of losing their spot in line for a green card. The DHS says the current backlog can delay permanent residency for high-skilled workers from a few months to as much as a decade. Because of country-based caps, the delays have hit foreigners from China and India the hardest, where demand is high.”

The move is supported by powerful interests. Zerohedge reports that “High-tech titans like Bill Gates, Steve Case, and Mark Zuckerberg are repeatedly quoted proclaiming a dearth of talent that imperils the nation’s future. Politicians, advocates, and articles and op-eds published by media outlets—including The New York Times, Forbes, CNN, Slate, and others—invoke such foreign-born entrepreneurs as Google’s Sergey Brin or Yahoo’s Jerry Yang, as if arrival from abroad (Brin and Yang came to the US as children) explains the success of the companies they founded . . . with partners who are US natives. Journalists endorse studies that trumpet the job-creating skills of these entrepreneurs from abroad, while ignoring the weaknesses that other scholars find in the research.
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“Meanwhile, The National Science Board’s biennial book, Science and Engineering Indicators, consistently finds that the US produces several times the number of STEM graduates than can get jobs in their fields. Recent reports from the National Institutes of Health, the National Academies, and the American Chemical Society warn that overproduction of STEM PhDs is damaging America’s ability to recruit native-born talent, and advise universities to limit the number of doctorates they produce.”

The Columbia Journalism Review reports that “President Obama supports bringing more foreign STEM workers to the US, despite high unemployment among US workers…Figures from the National Institutes of Health, the National Academies, the National Science Foundation, and other sources indicate that hundreds of thousands of STEM workers in the US are unemployed or underemployed. But they are not organized, and their story is being largely ignored in the debate over immigration reform.”

Reaction has been harsh. Breitbart  contends that “ Industry executives and university advocates have successfully duped nearly every reporter, editor and anchor nationwide about the scale and purpose of the H-1B professional outsourcing program. The journalists–and Americans—have been kept in the dark while universities and many allied name-brand companies have quietly imported an extra workforce of at least 100,000 lower-wage foreign professionals in place of higher-wage American graduates, above the supposed annual cap of 85,000 new H-1Bs.Less than one-sixth of these extra 100,000 outsourced hires are the so-called ‘high-tech’ computer experts that dominate media coverage of the contentious H-1B private-sector outsourcing debate. These white-collar guest-workers are not immigrants — they are foreign professionals hired at low wages for six years to take outsourced, white-collar jobs in the United States. Many hope to stay in the United States, but most guest-workers return home after six years.”

An analysis from Zerohedge reveals that “since December 2007, according to the Household Survey, only 790,000 native born American jobs have been added. Contrast that with the 2.1 million foreign-born Americans who have found a job over the same time period.”

Writing for the Center for Immigration Studies, Steven Camarota asks “Does it make sense to continue to admit a million new permanent immigrants each year, along with several hundred thousand guest workers, given the enormous pool of people not working or trying to find full-time work?”

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The Failed State of Mexico

Much attention has been paid to crises on distant continents, and rightfully so. The Middle East is tinderbox about to go up in blaze; Russia’s aggressiveness has brought the Cold War back to life, and China seems to be pursing the same belligerent role played by Japan that led to Pearl Harbor.

However, one needs look no further than America’s own southern border to find a significant crisis with major implications for the U.S.  Yesterday’s review examined how terrorists appear to be using Mexico as a launching pad to enter the American homeland. They are able to do so because Mexico is on the verge of being a wholly failed state.

That dire situation seems counter-intuitive. World.Silk   describes the nation in fairly glowing terms: “Mexico has one of the world’s largest economies, and is considered both a regional power and middle power… [it is considered to be] an upper-middle income country by the World Bank,  a newly industrialized nation, and an emerging power.It has the fourteenth largest nominal GDP and the eleventh largest GDP by purchasing power parity.” Additionally, it is one of the world’s most visited countries.

Last week, a Congressional Research Service study  on U.S.-Mexican security cooperated noted that  “Violence perpetrated by a range of criminal groups continues to threaten citizen security and governance in some parts of Mexico, a country with which the United States shares a nearly 2,000-mile border and more than $500 billion in annual trade…analysts estimate that it may have claimed more than 80,000 lives between December 2006 and December 2014. Recent cases—particularly the disappearance of 43 students in Guerrero, Mexico in September 2014—have drawn attention to the problems of corruption and impunity for human rights abuses in Mexico….

The danger to the U.S. from the power of Mexico’s organized criminal gangs, which far too frequently and in far too many locations exercise more power than the government, was noted in another Congressional study, “Terrorism and Transnational crime”  “criminals and terrorists have shared similar tactics to reach their separate operational objectives. Such tactics include acts of violence; involvement in criminal activity for profit; money laundering; undetected cross-border movements; illegal weapons acquisition; and exploitation of corrupt government officials. • Organizational Evolution and Variation: A criminal group may transform over time to adopt political goals and ideological motivations. Conversely, terrorist groups may shift toward criminality. For some terrorist groups, criminal activity remains secondary to ideological ambitions. For others, profit-making may surpass political aspirations as the dominant operating rationale.”

Infopirate bookmarks blogs unique copyrighted worldwide 80 adshare 10 referral adshare infopirate has morphed into a revenue cialis india price sharing bookmarking website. Igdalsky said the track was reviewing its records of check over here generic viagra prices how many announcements were made but conceded some fans didn’t hear it. sildenafil viagra generico Also consume the medicine with the help of water and try to take it in an empty stomach. In such a condition, if psychological well-being issue is left untreated then it might bring about price levitra huge issue and in the greater part of the cases, pain is mellow as well as vanishes all alone. A study by the National Interest noted that “Mexico has long been afflicted by pervasive corruption, with drug cartels and other criminal organizations easily penetrating governmental institutions. But developments …suggest that some of those institutions do not merely exhibit mundane corruption, but may be compromised in horrific ways. The most troubling incident took place in September 2014, when students from a teachers college disappeared in the western state of Guerrero. The students had shown the temerity to conduct a protest demonstration against the mayor of Iguala and his wife. Evidence soon emerged that the students were likely murdered and their bodies burned. Worse, there are strong indications, including eyewitness accounts from two individuals who survived the attack, that elements of both the police and the army, along with enforcers from a local drug cartel, were responsible for the massacre.”

An analysis by Stratfor emphasizes

“There comes a moment when the imbalance in resources reverses the relationship between government and cartels. Government officials, seeing the futility of resistance, effectively become tools of the cartels. Since there are multiple cartels, the area of competition ceases to be solely the border towns, shifting to the corridors of power in Mexico City. Government officials begin giving their primary loyalty not to the government but to one of the cartels. The government thus becomes both an arena for competition among the cartels and an instrument used by one cartel against another. That is the prescription for what is called a “failed state” — a state that no longer can function as a state.

“It is important to point out that we are not speaking here of corruption, which exists in all governments everywhere. Instead, we are talking about a systematic breakdown of the state, in which government is not simply influenced by criminals, but becomes an instrument of criminals — either simply an arena for battling among groups or under the control of a particular group. The state no longer can carry out its primary function of imposing peace, and it becomes helpless, or itself a direct perpetrator of crime. Corruption has been seen in Washington — some triggered by organized crime, but never state failure.”

A key symbol of the imbalance between Mexican governmental authority and  criminal organizations can be seen in an analysis by Vocativ  “At least 100 mayors have been murdered in the past 10 years in connection with organized crime, the Association of Local Authorities of … Mayors have been killed by decapitation, pummeled by stones, gunned to death and dismembered, according to local reports.”

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What President Obama Couldn’t Say

What would a truly candid State of the Union address contain? The New secretworldchronicle.com levitra 40 mg This results in long lasting and stable erection during the process. After the age of 40 and certainly by nearly 50, the penile rise slower, and become less firm and this condition sildenafil rx becomes frequent. Pills getting viagra without prescription and creams are often used for diabetes. Some people experience this pain in one or both arms, nausea or vomiting, sweating, lightheadedness, or fatigue. tadalafil canadian York Analysis of Policy & Government reveals that today in the article, below.

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U.S. Workers Suffer in Obama Economy

As the President delivers his State of the Union address tonight, Americans will reflect on the state of their own personal situations. Despite diligent attempts by federal agencies to paint a rosy picture, the reality is average citizens are enduring difficult times. Employment and wages are faring poorly.

Let’s start with wages.  Marketwatch reports that wages have recently declined. “Average wages fell a penny to $25.24 an hour.” Normally, after the end of a recession, wages are expected to rise, leading to further belief that our economy, rather than recovering, is heading in the wrong direction.

Those workers with declining pay may still consider themselves fortunate, however, since they, at least actually have jobs. Despite the fact that the White Houses claims that unemployment has been reduced, a closer look reveals a far more troubling picture.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics,

“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 292,000 in December, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.0 percent…Employment gains occurred in several industries, led by professional and business services, construction, health care, and food services and drinking places. Mining employment continued to decline. The number of unemployed persons, at 7.9 million, was essentially unchanged in December, and the unemployment rate was 5.0 percent for the third month in a row…Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for blacks declined to 8.3 percent in December, while the rates for adult men (4.7 percent), adult women (4.4 percent),teenagers (16.1 percent), whites (4.5 percent), Asians (4.0 percent), and Hispanics(6.3 percent) showed little or no change…The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was essentially unchanged at 2.1 million in December and accounted for 26.3 percent of the unemployed.The number of long-term unemployed has shown little movement since June…”

Digging deeper reveals troubling specifics.  As the New York Post noted,
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“… those numbers don’t reflect what is happening on the Main Streets of American. There, life is a lot tougher. For example, the broader measure of unemployment, called U-6, which measures Americans working in part-time jobs because they can’t find a 40-hour-a-week job, finds 6 million people, or 9.9 percent of the workforce, not able to find a full-time job…Plus, if you add in all the discouraged workers who want a job but have given up looking, the number of unemployed could reach 20 percent of the population. There were some other strange things in Friday’s glowing employment report. For instance, why did construction jobs increase by 45,000 last month? Labor says it had nothing to do with the unusually warm weather in most of the nation, but how could that not have had an impact? There were also 39,000 new health-care jobs, which was about average for every month in 2015. But most of these jobs are probably related to the continued rollout of ObamaCare. A change in the law like that has nothing to do with economic vitality. ..Another noticeable oddity in Friday’s report is this: “Food service and drinking places added 37,000 jobs in December,” Labor said. For 2015 there were 357,000 new jobs in this category. Really? How many new bars were added to your town?”

Dr. Paul C. Roberts, writing in Global Research,, is also harshly critical of the optimistic jobs picture. He notes that “the alleged job growth always takes place in non-tradable domestic services, that is, in areas that do not produce exports and have no competition from imports. This is the job profile of a Third World country…the US labor force participation rate has been declining. In December, 2015, there are 1,185,000 fewer Americans in the labor force than in December 2014; yet, the working age population is higher today than a year ago. The reported unemployment rate does not include “discouraged workers,” that is, workers who unable to find jobs have ceased looking for work. The reported unemployment rate of 5% only counts non-discouraged workers who are still expecting to find a job. The actual unemployment rate, that is, the rate that includes Americans who have given up hope of finding employment, is 23%… let’s look at the make believe jobs that the BLS claims. Almost all of them are in lowly paid domestic services, such as waitresses, bartenders, couriers and messengers, employment services, social services and health care (primarily ambulatory health care services).”

The New York Times provides this analysis: the strongest employment growth during the sluggish recovery has been in low-wage work, at places like strip malls and fast-food restaurants. In essence, the poor economy has replaced good jobs with bad ones. That is the conclusion of a new report from the National Employment Law Project, a research and advocacy group, analyzing employment trends four years into the recovery… Higher-wage industries — like accounting and legal work — shed 3.6 million positions during the recession and have added only 2.6 million positions during the recovery. But lower-wage industries lost two million jobs, then added 3.8 million… With joblessness high and job gains concentrated in low-wage industries, hundreds of thousands of Americans have accepted positions that pay less than they used to make, in some cases, sliding out of the middle class and into the ranks of the working poor.

The Washington Times outlines another key employment issue: “Two-thirds of those who have found employment under President Obama are immigrants, both legal and illegal.”

The Obama Administration’s high corporate taxes, lax immigration policies, poor international trade policies, excessive regulations, environmental extremism and disincentives on hiring from programs such as the Affordable Care Act have devastated the middle income job market.

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Obama’s Failed Cuba Policy

It has been a year since the White House’s opening of relations with Cuba. Mr. Obama’s policy may soon be broadened, as the President considers travelling to the island nation in the near future.

A review of the results indicate that the move was a significant error. Havana, Instead of responding to the White House’s embrace with a less belligerent foreign policy and enhanced human rights at home, has doubled down on the worst aspects of the Castro family regime.

It didn’t take long for Cuba to rebuke Obama’s bid for friendship. Foreign Policy noted:

“Indeed, no sooner had Castro met with Obama than he took to the floor of the U.N. General Assembly to unleash a typical jeremiad against the United States, chockfull of hoary Cold War rhetoric denouncing the embargo, demanding reparations (to the tune of $1 trillion) for the embargo, ordering the return of the U.S. naval facility at Guantanamo Bay, and calling for Puerto Rican independence (which Puerto Ricans do not even want.)”

The Washington Post  has reported: President Raúl Castro’s regime… “seems to have done little beyond reopening its Washington embassy…Mr. Castro’s son-in-law, an army general, still controls the dollar-earning tourist industry, the Internet largely remains unavailable to ordinary Cubans, and, most important, dissidents remain subject to arbitrary arrest and detention — including several snatched off the streets for daring to approach Pope Francis during his recent visit.”

According to information from The Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies (ICCAS) at the University of Miami, originally shared with the Panama Post, “General Leopoldo Cintra Frías, head of the Cuban Armed Forces…is leading a group of Cuban military personnel … in support of Syria’s dictator Assad and, in Cold War fashion, the Russian contingent…two Russian-made planes arriving in Syria carrying approximately 300 Cuban soldiers. They further detail that the Cuban soldiers will man Russian tanks that have been provided to Syrian head-of-state Bashar al-Assad. Their duty will be to fight Islamic State forces and others who threaten Assad’s grip on power.”

The Castro family regime has not limited its aggressive and disturbing foreign policy moves to areas far from the Western Hemisphere. Capitol Hill Cubans outlined several examples that indicate Havana is continuing its threatening practices, which have included arms deals with North Korea and South American terrorists:

“- Russian intelligence ship, Yantar, targeted a U.S. nuclear missile submarine base and underwater transit routes off the eastern seaboard, as it headed for safe-harbor in Cuba. Throughout the year, the Castro regime has continued to host and harbor Russian spy ships tasked with monitoring sensitive U.S. defense networks

“- As Russia restores military-industrial cooperation with Cuba, it may soon reopen the Lourdes signal intelligence center near Havana, announced a senior member of the State Duma Security Committee.
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“- “We intend to continue cooperation in supplying the Cuban Revolutionary Armed Forces with modern weapons and military hardware,” Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu said at a meeting in Moscow with Deputy Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Cuba Ricardo Cabrisas.

“- A Russian spy ship, The Viktor Leonov, returned to the Port of Havana during a visit by European Union’s foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini. Her visit to Cuba also ‘coincided’ with a visit by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.

“- A Russian spy ship docked in central Havana on the eve of a visit to Cuba by the first U.S. delegation for “normalization” talks. The Viktor Leonov, an armed intelligence-gathering vessel that monitors US communications, arrived at a passenger cruise terminal in full public view for what a Russian embassy official called a “friendly” three-day stay.”

Internally, Cuba a remains as repressive as ever. The Heritage Foundation reports:

“Cuba is further than ever from becoming a democracy where people enjoy normal civil liberties; it is in fact closer to becoming what China specialist have identified as a rival model, a ‘resilient authoritarian regime’… the Castro regime thumbed its nose at the world by arresting between 150-200 dissidents on Human Rights Day…regime-organized mobs have blocked a brave group of middle-aged women known as the Ladies in White from marching after church service. These women are always insulted, often beaten and occasionally arrested.”

“Meanwhile, Castro has put family members in charge of a corrupt regime that can now expect to have durability after the two Castro brothers pass from the scene. Castro’s son-in-law, Gen. Luis Alberto Rodriguez, controls an estimated 90 percent of the Cuban economy through the holding company he leads, GAESA. As Bloomberg put it recently about would-be foreign investors, “wait until they learn all roads lead to Raul Castro’s son-in-law.”

“The island’s defenseless dissidents have bitterly denounced what they term Obama’s betrayal of their movement.”

The Wall Street Journal ‘s Bret Stephens reports that, since Obama’s opening to Havana last year, 8,000 cubans have been arrested for political reasons.