Category: Quick Analysis

Taiwan’s Ministry of Finance recently announced that its trade dependence on mainland China has reached its lowest level in 21 years, while also seeing historic growth in trade with the United States and Europe. As we approach the tenth anniversary of Taiwan’s Sunflower Movement, the world needs to understand  that Taiwan’s continued economic resilience has measurably changed the island, more so than any other political policy since 1945. It started with a simple protest that still impacts the island today.

Student protesters in 2014 chose the Sunflower for its perfect symbolism, after receiving 1,000 blossoms from a local Taipei florist. The taì yáng hua (太陽花)is heliotropic, a flower that follows the direction of the sun. On March 18 of that year, hundreds of students, academicians, and civic organizations, among others, climbed fences in an attempt to halt the Kuomindang (KMT) party’s secretive enforcement of the Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement. The demonstrators occupied the Legislative Yuan in a three-week-long sit in, in what became known as the first mass occupation of the legislative chamber in Taiwan’s history. The movement catalyzed economic policies calling for increased diversification of trade with the US and Europe and a reduced dependence and integration with mainland China.

It led to a shift toward the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and influenced Taiwan’s ongoing democratic resilience and international cooperation efforts in trade with the United States and United Kingdom, according to Lin Fei-fan, of the Jamestown Foundation. US Senator Sherrod Brown, a founding member of the Congressional Taiwan Caucus at the time, urged Taiwan’s KMT President Ma Ying-jeou, to ensure a non-violent solution and accused him of trying to jam a trade agreement through the legislature against the wishes of the people of Taiwan. 

The Sunflower Movement succeeded, setting the stage for Taiwan’s economic independence, safeguarding its democratic system from external interference, and aiding in its democratic achievements over the last decade. The Umbrella Movement in Hong Kong followed that September as people demanded Beijing fulfill its promises to allow the people to govern Hong Kong. The two movements, however, had very different endings. The Sunflower Movement not only blocked passage of the Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement, it also disrupted Ma’s push to integrate Taiwan further politically and economically with the mainland, along with his goal of eventual reunification. 

In the following months following the start of the Sunflower Movement, public opinion changed in Taiwan and hope grew that there was a viable path to avoid Beijing’s coercive attempts to undermine Taiwan’s government. In the 2014 fall election, the KMT ruling party lost its midyear referendum in eight municipalities and counties. Then in 2016, the people elected DPP candidate Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) as president in a move seen as completing Taiwan’s third democratic transition. She proposed the New Southbound Policy (新南向政策) to reorient Taiwan toward emerging markets in Southeast Asia and India, according to Lin. As Taiwan shifted toward forward-leaning infrastructure projects and energy transition initiatives, businesses started returning to the island and investing in Taiwan’s future. By 2022 Taipei’s official economic investments in Southeast Asia surpassed those of Beijing. Over the last eight years Taiwan’s economic reliance on Beijing has declined from 45% of Taiwan’s exports during the Ma administration to 35% last year.   

In last month’s presidential election Taiwan chose the DPP candidate for a third consecutive term, setting a post-democratization record. President-elect Lai Ching-te, however, was unable to secure a majority in the legislature and pro-China leaning, KMT legislator Han Kuo-yu was elected speaker. His election brings a tone of some uncertainty to Taiwan about its continued ability to reform its defense policies and cross-strait relations. Taiwan needs to increase the pace and level of its defense autonomy to respond to the current China threat. Economically, Lin says, Taiwanese companies are shifting their investments towards the West and other countries across Asia. It is strengthening democratic forces in Asia.

A decade ago, Taiwan chose to listen to the Sunflower protesters and not to kow tow to its powerful authoritarian neighbor. Using civil society and large-scale social movements it prevented its ruling party from moving closer to rule under Beijing. The lessons learned from the Sunflower Movement still serve Taiwan as a beacon of hope. It led the island in a new direction and continues to support its democratic connections to the world. 

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Department

Facing a long list of domestic challenges since his invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Valdimir Putin has now turned the Kremlin’s propaganda machine toward attacking the sovereignty of the five Central Asian states. It may be a distraction from trouble at home, or it could be a glimpse into Putin’s real intentions in the region. Discerning what is foreshadowing versus what is simple rhetoric is complex. The Kremlin has a long history of supporting hostile statements made by high-ranked Russian leaders and other public figures. Of growing concern lately is that recent vitriolic language appears to closely mimic the type of threats of invasion and annexation that came out of Moscow prior to the start of the war in Ukraine. Is this Putin’s next move? It is too soon to tell.

“The hostile rhetoric and actions from Russia have eroded trust and relations between Central Asian countries and Russia… The invasion of Ukraine has shattered the perception of Russia as a reliable ally among Central Asian elites,” says Nurbek Bekmurzaev of the Eurasian Daily Monitor. Last month a well-known Russian historian Mikhail Smolin reportedly claimed that Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan were not nations before the October 1917 Russian Revolution. 

The statements, reported in the Uzbekistan media after being delivered on Russia’s TNV channel show “Mestro Vstrechi,” are likely sanctioned by the government. Smolin’s remarks that the two countries were created by Soviet authorities “from several Central Asian peoples” appears to be an attempt to sow discontent and deny the regional states’ sovereign rights. Bekmurzaev calls the statement “scandalous” and points out that Smolin was, in essence, accusing the regional governments of enforcing policies discriminating against ethnic Russians.

Kazakhstan is the only Central Asian state that shares a border tangent to Russia’s. It is the most targeted country. Although all five gained independence with the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, they previously were under the Russian Empire’s control beginning in the 19^th century. Moscow views Central Asia as its backyard and continues to claim the exclusive right to have an outsized influence there. In effect, Russia’s position has limited the states’ abilities to manage their own security, politics, and global economic engagements. Russian officials increasingly visit Central Asian state to ensure Moscow’s preferences are considered in policy matters. The public Russian accusations are not new. Ten years ago, Putin claimed Kazakhstan’s first president, Nursultan Nazarbayev, “created a state on territory where there had never been a state.” Three years ago, a Russian Duma Deputy, Vyacheslav Nikonov, declared on air that Kazakhstan simply didn’t exist. Tengri News in December 2020 attributes Nikonov with saying it was “a great gift from Russia and the Soviet Union.”

Bekmurzaev points out, however, that the most threatening Russian statements are not made in the media. The pressure is applied behind closed doors. In March 2022, less than a month after Putin invaded Ukraine, Sergei Savostyanov, another Duma deputy, told the Kazakhstan publication Katzag, that Moscow would offer Astana to expand its “ongoing denazification and demilitarization operation” in Ukraine to include Kazakhstan.” A month after this incident, Russian television host and husband of the central propaganda figure Margarita Simonyan, Tegran Keosyan, accused Kazakhstan of “ungratefulness” and threatened the country, calling for it “to look at Ukraine” in response to the country’s decision to cancel the annual parade commemorating the Soviet Union’s victory in the World War II,” says Bekmurzaev. The attacks on the country have continued and are intensifying with Russia’s former president calling the Central Asian country an “artificial state” on land gifted by Russia and accusing Astana of policies that “could be classified as genocide of Russians” living there. Last month the Kazakhstan publication Liter reported that when the name of a train station was changed from a Russian one to a Kazakh name. Moscow accused Astana of “pushing out the Russian language” from the public space. Other Russian politicians and writers claim many of the Central Asian states are committing “clearly unfriendly actions” toward Moscow and are calling for formal annexation.

Although the region is vulnerable to these media attacks due to its reliance on Russia for political, security, and economic prosperity, according to Bekmurzaev, Kazakhstan has cancelled several Russian television channels that translate state propaganda. What is certain today is that Central Asian leaders are acutely aware of the potential for Russia to take increasingly hostile action toward the region as it maintains a colonialist view toward it. The hostile rhetoric by Putin’s minions have eroded trust in Central Asia toward Russia since the invasion of Ukraine. What remains uncertain is how far Putin will push the concept of Russian domination over the region. If the pattern seen before the invasion in Ukraine is repeated, the war could spread farther east.

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Department

We conclude our summary of key points of government waste from Senator Rand Paul.

The Cybersecurity Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), the Department of  Homeland Security (DHS) agency that made itself the arbiter of  “misinformation” during the COVID pandemic, created a series of graphic  novels, called the “Resilience Series,” to help educate the public about  misinformation. There is nothing comical about wasting taxpayer money to  justify censorship of constitutionally protected speech. 

The first in the series was called “Real Fake” and featured a foreign operation created to spread misinformation about a U.S. Senator and impact U.S. elections. 

DC Comics won’t be adding these taxpayer-funded comic books from  America’s Cyber Defense Agency (CISA) to their repertoire anytime soon. Using the tired old trope that, “disinformation campaigns are a direct threat to our democracy,” CISA spent time and money telling people what to believe about COVID vaccines and helping to suppress debate and discussion about the  new vaccine technology and its potential side effects. 

CISA’s latest graphic novel even dips into the conspiracy theory that Russia created a “disinformation pandemic” around COVID. In fact, few did more to cause mistrust than the U.S. government and its cover-up experts like Dr.  Fauci, who, we now know, pushed disinformation on mask and vaccine  efficacy, while obfuscating our government’s involvement with dangerous  gain-of-function coronavirus research. 

The First Amendment is kryptonite for our government censors.

National Institutes of Health (NIH)-funded researchers at the University of  Mississippi Medical Center gave lab monkeys meth in the morning and  tracked the monkeys’ sleep habits through implanted wire leads running  “subcutaneously from the head incision to the eye orbit, exiting the eye orbit  from underneath the upper eyelid.” 

The study was funded by portions of four NIH grants and brought to Senator Paul’s attention by the White Coat Waste Project. 

Over 100,000 Americans  die of meth overdoses each year as these  dangerous drugs pour  across our open borders. Our nation’s first  responders and families  across the country struggle every day to  fight this drug epidemic, and yet NIH approved a  portion of approximately  $12 million in NIH grants  to test the sleep habits of  monkeys given meth in  the morning?  

Every year, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) reroutes incoming tax  payments to a fund set aside for U.S. presidential campaigns. The account is funded by a $3 IRS tax return check box. Since 2008, no major political  party’s candidate for president has accepted the funds. As of November 1,  2023: $400.6 million sat unused in the Presidential Election Campaign Fund  Account. 

Why do we provide unused and unnecessary welfare for politicians and their presidential campaigns? It’s time to scrap the wasteful Presidential Election Campaign check off program. 

Two laboratory monkeys at the University of Minnesota faced high stakes as their access to drinking water hung in the balance, contingent upon their  willingness to embrace what researchers termed “gambling.”  

To study the region of the brain that impacts risk-taking choices, parts of  monkeys’ skulls were removed and their brains were injected with tracers  and monitored as they gambled between two different options presented to  them on two screens.  

Test subjects were given a low-risk, low reward choice and a high-risk, high reward option, with the monkeys choosing risk over reward more than 70% of the time. 

The study—funded under an NIH National  Institute of Mental Health $1.9 million grant  and an NIH National Institute of Drug Abuse  $1.8 million grant—gambled that this monkey study was a good use of taxpayer  funds.  

When local concert venues and family-owned theaters were forced to shut  down during the pandemic, distributing financial relief was left to the Small  Business Administration (SBA). The Shuttered Venue Operators Grant  program was supposed to provide a lifeline to small entertainment  businesses nationwide.  

Sadly, but not surprisingly, SBA failed to deliver. Business Insider identified dozens of famous music artists and  their touring companies that received  over $200 million through the program.  

So-called “small business owners,” such as Post Malone, Lil Wayne, Chris  Brown, and Smashing Pumpkins, received up to $10 million each. Even  Nickelback received $2 million. While  some may claim these funds were used to keep supporting staff, artists  were not required to do so, and we  have no way of determining how these  blank checks were used.  

These multi-millionaire musicians were cashing checks, instead of the  intended recipients: America’s small businesses. Throughout the pandemic  the National Institutes of   Health (NIH) — an agency  that suppressed its own  involvement in funding dangerous coronavirus  research — labeled any  COVID dissent as  misinformation.  

NIH is now specifically targeting the COVID opinions of black and rural communities. A $3.8 million  

University of Pennsylvania  study is investigating “COVID-19 misinformation exposure on social media  among Black and Rural  communities” to help  “identify and ombat  misinformation.” In this study, researchers examine  social media posts “with a specific lens on race” and location.  

When the study began in September 2022, much of what the government and social media called COVID “misinformation” (relating to masks, vaccine  efficacy, and the virus’ origins) is what is simply called “true” this year.  

Under Dr. Fauci, the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) was back in the business of wasting your money and torturing  animals. This time, instead of tormenting puppies with ravenous sandflies, a  Florida lab is trying to feminize male monkeys. That’s right, the NIAID is  using $477,121 of your tax dollars to fund the forced feminization of male  rhesus macaques. 

Utilizing taxpayer funds from NIAID, a Florida lab set out to examine what  would happen if female hormones were given to male monkeys. After receiving the hormones, biopsies from the force-feminized, male monkeys were tested to see if they were more susceptible to HIV. 

The lab worked to make male lab monkeys “transgender” to address “social injustices” suffered by “transgender persons” such as “transgender women (TGW)-individuals who were assigned a male set at birth but express  their gender along a female spectrum.” 

Critics note that  monkeys  themselves are  not susceptible to  HIV, and argue  injecting the male  monkeys with  female hormones is unlikely to yield  relevant information or to  help humans. This year, the Biden  Administration sent  out a whopping $236  billion in inaccurate  checks, otherwise known as “improper  payments.”  Federal law defines the term as payments made by  the government to the  wrong person, in the  wrong amount, or for  the wrong reason. 

 FY2023’s whoopsies were down only slightly from FY2022’s $247 billion in improper payments, which came to $675 million a day.  

Illustration: Pixabay

We continue our summary of key points of government waste from Senator Rand Paul.

One would think employees of the Department of Homeland Security’s Cybersecurity Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) would spend their time combatting cybersecurity breaches and doing other security-related tasks. 

Think again. As part of a 5-year “diversity, equity, inclusion, and accessibility (DEIA)” strategic plan, CISA employees gathered for a federally funded workshop, where attendees focused on “effective strategies to build and sustain psychological safety that allows individuals to show up to work as  their authentic and best selves […].” 

Ironically, the workshop coincided with CISA’s efforts to suppress protected  speech on social media platforms during  the COVID-19 pandemic. Even Senator Paul was censored at  the behest of our government speech minders.

After having their brain stems snipped, Russian cats were forced to walk on a treadmill in Russian labs. This is all thanks to U.S.  taxpayers footing the bill. Russian scientists, funded with your money, posted videos of their cat-walk studies, which  showed shaved cats hooked up to electrodes  and struggling to walk on a treadmill.  These cat-walks were part of a $2.7 million  National Institutes of Health (NIH) grant given to a  researcher at the Georgia Institute of Technology  in the U.S. The Institute then sub granted the  funds to researchers in St. Petersburg, Russia — a fact first uncovered by White Coat Waste  Project in 2021. 

U.S. officials testified that another $38 million in COVID  payments — an average of $83,000 each — went to people  Uncle Sam knew were dead. The figures came from the special task force Congress authorized to track COVID payments from  the federal government. Specifically, $10 million was paid to individuals who were already dead on the date someone applied for funding. The government doled out $1.3 million of  your money to 30 individuals who were dead for at least a year,  in what fraud inspectors deemed one of the “particularly  egregious examples.” This was not the first time Uncle  Sam tracked taxpayer funds to the  mailboxes of the dead. By April 30,  2020, the U.S. Treasury’s Inspector  General knew $1.4 billion (of $269  billion total) was sent out to more  than one million Americans who filed  taxes in previous years, and then  died, yet still received checks  intended as COVID stimulus  payments. 

Not all the funds were recovered, as dead people are notoriously bad about  paying up. 

We all know that the Department of Defense (DOD) makes purchases for  military operations. One would imagine weapons, ammunition, and tanks  might be among those purchased items, but according to USASpending.gov, they aren’t the kind of tanks you’re thinking of!  

The DOD paid $8,395 for a “Lobster Tank” purchased from a restaurant equipment company in Springfield, Virginia. I understand military personnel need to eat, but does the DOD really need a Lobster Tank? I think we can all agree these aren’t the tanks Americans thought their tax dollars were funding. 

“I know, let’s store your vehicle engine outside,” said no auto mechanic ever. But that’s just where the U.S. Army officials “improperly stored 80 gas  turbine engines” valued at $89.16 million.  Each of the $1.1 million engines were improperly stored for three years! 

Apparently, the code to properly store the engines was missing upon their arrival, so, instead of putting the engines in a covered shed they were left outside. At a million dollars an engine, why couldn’t someone just call and ask for the code? 

How much does something have to be worth for the U.S. Army to store it properly? Evidently more than $12.6 million.  

This time, the Department of Defense (DOD) Inspector General (IG) found the U.S. Army “improperly stored 135 hydraulic transmissions (NIIN  14131885), valued at $12.60 million, outside.” Despite the requirement to be stored in a shed, over 1,000 officials told the IG they simply didn’t have room in the shed.  

Apparently, the natural next step is to store them in leaky and improperly maintained long-life reusable containers (LLRCs). It was in the outside LLRCs, that inspectors found transmissions stored at excessive humidity levels and among standing water and oil. 

The third and final example (until next year) of the Department of Defense (DOD) ruining expensive military equipment, revolves around military tanks  and tank treads. 

The DOD Inspector General (IG) cataloged “117,534 vehicular track shoes” valued at $68.29 million left outside in the open air. They were not covered or stored properly at all. The IG said over 1,000 military officials did not follow the military’s own guidance on storage. 

The Report concludes tomorrow

The U.S. National Debt has reached the stunning figure of $34 trillion, despite Washington taking in record revenues. 

Unlike other periods of great spending, there is very little to show for all profligacy. The spending of the 1940’s resulted in victory during World War Two. The 1950’s saw the construction of the national highway system. In the 1980’s, Reagan’s defense buildup was a key factor in ending the Cold War. 

In the 21st Century, however, the nation’s infrastructure continues to crumble, our electrical infrastructure remains unprotected, social security funds are dwindling, our nuclear arsenal is increasingly obsolete, and our Navy is now second in size to China.

Where has all the money gone? Waste may be a key factor.

U.S. Senator Rand Paul (R-KY), Ranking Member of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, has released his 2023 “Festivus” Report, https://www.paul.senate.gov/dr-rand-paul-releases-2023-festivus-report-on-government-waste/ detailing,   totaling ~$900,000,000,000 in government waste.

Here are the key points of Senator Paul’s report:

The U.S. government will add over $5 billion of debt every single day for the next ten years. We borrow over $200 million every hour, we borrow $3 million every minute, and we borrow $60,000 every second.

In Fiscal Year 2023, the U.S. Department of the Treasury spent $659 billion just to pay the interest on the national debt.

Because we don’t have the funds to pay that, we have to borrow it — a large portion from China. We borrow from China to pay the interest on funds we couldn’t afford to spend in the first place.

Some of the more extreme examples Senator Paul outlines include:

 An NIH grant to study Russian cats walking on a treadmill, Barbies used as proof of ID for receiving COVID Paycheck Protection Program funds, $6 million to promote tourism in Egypt, and $200 million to ‘struggling artists’ like Post Malone, Chris Brown, and Lil Wayne.

What’s known to South Carolina locals as “Monkey Island” is Dr. Fauci’s ~3,000-monkey colony, raised on a state-owned island. The National Institutes of Health (NIH) signed a $33.2 million contract with a local  business to house, feed, and care for these monkeys before they’re shipped  to research labs around the country. 

The federal government established the colony in the late 1970s, though the multi-million dollar contract to care for the monkeys changed hands a few  times. NIH also paid millions to a large pharmaceutical company to maintain Dr. Fauci’s Monkey Island. 

Care to float in a hot-air balloon around Egyptian ruins or travel down the Nile on a Royal Cleopatra Nile cruise? Maybe touring the Temple of Khnum, or seeing an 1897 oil press is more your style? If so, Esna, Egypt, might be the perfect spot for your next vacation.  U.S. taxpayers should not be the ones funding a tourism boosting program in Esna, Egypt. 

Yet the United States Agency for International Development  (USAID) approved spending $6 million to do just that: boost  tourism in Egypt, which it  promotes as a “value investment in sustainable integrated tourism.”  USAID’s multi-million-dollar VISIT-Esna initiative will run through September 2024.  The U.S. has spent over $100 million on Egyptian tourism so far.

When you walk outside in the summer, you get hot. When Labrador retrievers are walked outside in the summer, they also get hot. 

Getting hot while walking outside in the heat might be obvious to you, but the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) allocated “cutting edge” research funding to support a summer study that walked 16 dogs—of two different colors — and measured their rectal temperatures. 

Researchers found the Labradors’ fur color did not affect their body temperatures after a hot summer’s walk. That’s it. That’s the taxpayer funded, cutting-edge study. 

The Agricultural Research Service at the USDA, which funded the study at Southern Illinois University, gets $1.7 billion a year from Congress, but it’s unknown how much the hot dog study cost the taxpayer. 

The Report continues tomorrow

Illustration: Pixabay

There is forced labor in the Uyghur Autonomous Region (UXAR) in Xinjiang, China… although the Chinese government doesn’t admit it exists. The situation is growing more dire, in general, for Western China’s minority population. The Journal of Human Trafficking’s most recent report released last week contradicts Beijing’s narrative with facts that expose the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) policies in its Uyghur areas. High level policy and planning documents obtained from regional level officials in China indicate that the country’s coercive employment and poverty alleviation policies will be strengthened and ongoing through at least 2025.

China’s “Poverty Alleviation Through Labor Transfer” program, according to Adrian Zenz of the Jamestown Foundation, equates to a “non-internment state-imposed forced labor mobilization system.” It is the largest known program of its kind in the world. Zenz adds that China is also maximizing state control now through “parent-child separation” with the goal of reducing the minority population’s dominance in the southern UXAR. The Journal’s report examines labor transfers for 2023 and early 2024 and concludes that China is intensifying its program while also attempting to conceal its coercive nature. 

Beijing says it is working to optimize the ethnic population structure by what it calls “reducing Uyghur population density,” according to a Central Asian Survey report. The United Nations and other human rights groups label it closer to ethnic cleansing than eliminating poverty in minority-dominated areas. The program has expanded and, in the last 12 months, well-surpassed even state-mandated quotas. This represents a large increase over 2022.

China’s “Poverty Alleviation Through Labor Transfer” program is part of a number of measures forcibly imposed on the Uyghur population. Although there are some indications the internment camps are no longer formally in place, those remaining still serve as a method of “filtration” for re-educated individuals. They have contributed hundreds of thousands of workers into the coerced labor force over the last few years. In 2023 the XUAR state also significantly expanded its “Pairing Assistance” program, which according to Zenz “facilitates cross-provincial labor transfers, aiming to increase transfers to other Chinese regions by 38 percent—levels exceeding those of any year since the mid-2010s.” Zenz says that “based on a 2023 goal to transfer at least 1.087 million of this sub-group of surplus laborers, this would mean an increase of 37.8 percent, from 27,600 in 2022 to over 38,000 laborers in 2023 transferred to other provinces.”

Chinese President Xi Jinping says the goal of the XUAR policies is to reduce the “dominance” of the Uyghur population in their own homeland. By expanding training programs that supply workers for its forced labor programs, China is ensuring the country enough workers as mandated in the country’s 14^th Five-Year Plan. During last summer’s visit to the region, Xi declared that the policies will “ensure development with stability.” He openly admitted that China “must always give top priority to maintaining social stability” and focus on “preventing a return to poverty” (防止返贫). The XUAR’s Party Secretary, Ma Xingrui, notes a 2022 Jamestown report, that China is seeking to reinforce the areas re-education mass internment campaign and “other assimilatory policies under the banner of ‘high-quality development (质量发).’” 

Land use rights are also under attack by the XUAR regional government. In some areas up to 90 percent of land is being transferred away from local farmers in targeted ethnic groups to state-run cooperatives in a move reminiscent of failed Maoist era economic policies. Last summer, CPC News summarized Xi’s policies as highly significant for the state’s long-term, regional strategy. Zenz says that China has evolved its policing of families to include maximizing state control through “parent-child separation.” In effect, the policy represents a draconian method of forced assimilation. In a move away from the internment camp style, but just as insidious, China’s XUAR party secretary has increased its monitoring and surveillance campaign to ensure the forced labor force doesn’t escape and return to lower income, traditional livelihood jobs and abandon the state-arranged positions. Estimates are that over 775,000 households today live under the real-time monitoring program. 

The 2024 listing of works by the XUAR government mandates the state should “provide employment for ‘focus groups’ or ‘focus persons’ (重点群体) that include rural-urban migrant workers. The state considers these the highest security risk, although many are already graduates of the re-education camps. Ruth Ingram in a “China Project” report last October called the Uyghur’s treatment more prevalent and more insidious than in previous years. China remains belligerent in its behavior toward its minority populations and is not responding to international pressures to reform its policies. The world cannot afford to ignore China’s human rights abuses despite ongoing conflicts in other areas of the world.

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Department

Russia claims it is ramping up its offensive militarization of space. Analysts in Washington say it may not be all hype. On Tuesday, US Rep. Mike Turner (R-OH), chair of the House Intelligence Committee, decided to publicly discuss concerns his committee has over Russia’s attempts to deploy an antisatellite nuclear weapon in space. He called on President Biden to declassify the intelligence so that Congress can speak with allies about the threat. If verified, this development raises the threat level to US national security and certainly deserves serious attention. However, there are other pressing issues that Washington must also examine that are, perhaps, less dramatic but also causing grave concern to the intelligence community examining longer-term threats. Russia increased its youth para-militarization budget investment ten-fold over 2022. It is indicative of the importance the Kremlin places on the program, as it devotes vast amounts of limited capital to develop a breed of “warrior youth.” The substantially expanded programs allocate more than $511 million of its scarce financial resources to train future soldiers and to prepare these “eaglets of Russia” for nuclear war.

Russia, already known throughout the world for its advanced disinformation campaigns and psychological manipulations of populations, is now employing these techniques on its own population to militarize the thinking of its children. Alla Hurka, writing in Eurasia Daily Monitor, says that Putin is allocating massive funding for patriotic education programs, youth movements, and competitions. “Military service is glorified across all levels of education in changes to the national curriculum emphasizing the defense of the homeland and preparing students for potential conflicts.”

As the Russian invasion of Ukraine passes the two-year mark next week, Moscow continues ramping up its efforts to develop and deploy a comprehensive strategy to indoctrinate its younger generation with a belief in the glory of military service and to imbue them with a willingness to make sacrifices for “Mother Russia.” The Russian publication, Kommersant, is reporting this week that students will be acquainted with general military regulations and receive training to prepare for potential nuclear conflicts This comes at a time when the Kremlin is reeling from the loss of soldiers in the war. Women are also being asked to consider early childbearing and have at least three and, hopefully, eight children.

The effort crosses all levels of education nationwide from schoolchildren to teens who are organized into “volunteer companies.” Earlier this month State Duma Deputy Dmitry Kuznetsov announced new plans to establish a youth version of the Chechen battalion “Akamat” starting in August, says Hurka. The training camp is scheduled to include  military-patriot games, visits from war correspondents, engagements with scientists and historians, and will hold meetings with “special military operation heroes,” according to the Russian publication Lenta. Essentially, Moscow is training its children for future conflicts.

Starting in 2023, kindergartner-age children is some school systems began learning how to correctly assemble a machine gun, while other schools are forming “creative leisure” clubs to teach children how to use Kalashnikov assault rifles. Children write letters of support to soldiers, organize humanitarian aid efforts and, according to the Russian publication Theins last March, even deploy themselves to the front lines. The alteration to the national school curriculum is overseen by Rismolodezh, the federal agency for young Russians, that has organized over 36,000 military-patriotic “clubs” and centers for patriotic education. Last November, President Putin declared 2024 the Year of the Family in Russia. After the breakup of the Soviet Union almost 33 years ago, Western leaders had thought these programs also disappeared in the post-Cold War era. Instead, they went underground until now.

This September marks the start of a new requirement for Russia’s students. They will now be required to under combat, tactical, fire, engineering, military medical, and technical training in a course entitled, “Fundamentals of Security and Defense of the Motherland.” It includes preparation for a potential nuclear conflict. Hurka points out that “On an initiative from Putin’s political scientist Sergey Karaganov, who advocated for a pre-emptive nuclear strike on Europe, Moscow established the Institute of World Military Economics and Strategy at the Higher School of Economics.” Students in it will study nuclear deterrence, the societal impacts of prolonged conflicts, and Russia’s role in Central Asia in collaboration with institutions in the United Arab Emirates and China.

There is little doubt that Russia is breeding its future generations for war, not peace. The West cannot afford to underestimate the importance of Russia’s comprehensive paramilitary strategy and the determination of Moscow’s leaders to restore the Russian Empire to its previous glory.

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Department

In unusually clear terms for a government report, Canada has outlined in interest in the Indo-Pacific region.

Canada is a Pacific country. It shares 25,000 kilometers of Pacific coastline, robust trading relationships with economies across the region, deep people-to-people ties and a rich history of cultural exchange. Like most other Pacific-bordering nations, it sees both opportunity and challenges in the region.

Here are the main points of the analysis, most applicable to the U.S. as well as our northern ally:

As great power competition deepens in the region, inter-state tensions are on the rise, many with historical roots. Regional peace and prosperity are threatened by instability on the Korean Peninsula as a result of North Korean provocations; rising violence in Myanmar following the recent military coup d’état; clashes on the India-China and India-Pakistan borders; escalating tensions in the South and East China Seas and across the Taiwan Strait; and severe poverty and inequality. The Indo-Pacific is home to four states that possess nuclear nuclear weapons (China, India, North Korea and Pakistan).

The Indo-Pacific comprises 40 countries and economies: Australia, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Brunei, Cambodia, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), India, Indonesia, Japan, Laos, Malaysia, Maldives, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, New Zealand, the Pacific Island Countries (14), Pakistan, People’s Republic of China (PRC), the Philippines, Republic of Korea (ROK), Singapore, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Timor Leste, and Vietnam.

the Indo-Pacific makes up more than one-third of all global economic activity, and 50% of global Gross Domestic Product. Three of the world’s largest economies—the People’s Republic of China (China), India and Japan—are in this part of the world. By 2040—less than two decades from now—the region will account for more than half of the global economy, or more than twice the share of the United States. By 2030, it will be home to two-thirds of the global middle class, having lifted millions out of poverty through economic growth.

At the heart of this dynamic economic region, China’s rise as a global actor is reshaping the strategic outlook of every state in the region, including Canada. China has benefitted from the rules-based international order to grow and prosper, but it is now actively seeking to reinterpret these rules to gain greater advantage. China’s assertive pursuit of its economic and security interests, advancement of unilateral claims, foreign interference and increasingly coercive treatment of other countries and economies have significant implications in the region, in Canada and around the world. Respect for the sovereignty of other states is a cornerstone of the rules-based international order and of governments’ ability to work together to solve shared problems.

Many of Canada’s closest allies, including the United States, the European Union, Germany, France and the United Kingdom, have increased or are considering increasing their presence in the region, guided by their own interests and strategies and based on significant investments in diplomacy, in their military presence, in trade promotion and in development assistance. Within this broader context, Canada has a unique contribution to make based on our particular history and relationships in the Indo-Pacific.

At the heart of this dynamic economic region, China’s rise as a global actor is reshaping the strategic outlook of every state in the region, including Canada. China has benefitted from the rules-based international order to grow and prosper, but it is now actively seeking to reinterpret these rules to gain greater advantage. China’s assertive pursuit of its economic and security interests, advancement of unilateral claims, foreign interference and increasingly coercive treatment of other countries and economies have significant implications in the region, in Canada and around the world. Respect for the sovereignty of other states is a cornerstone of the rules-based international order and of governments’ ability to work together to solve shared problems.

Photo: Pixabay

Absolute honesty has never been a hallmark of politics. But the prevalence of lies and deception concerning illegal immigration reached a new low. Nowhere is this clearer than in the Biden administration’s comments about the flood of illegal immigration.

Shortly after taking office, Biden signed executive orders reversing Trump’s restrictive immigration policies. He proclaimed that “I’m not making new law. I’m eliminating bad policy.”

Despite dramatic, record-breaking illegal immigration across the southern border, verified by the House Committee on Homeland Security border encounter data, White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre states “The president has done more to secure the border… than anybody else. He really has.” 

The vast numbers flooding into the nation clearly present dangers. The House Judiciary Committee notes that “the DHS is not protecting the U.S. from terrorists.”  

In addition to concerns about terror, crime is a major threat. A Heritage Foundation Analysis states that “In 2023 alone, Border Patrol agents have encountered thousands of illegal aliens with prior criminal convictions, including assault, rape, and murder. The true extent of crimes committed by illegal aliens remains unknown because there are also over 1.5 million unaccounted for ‘gotaways’ since Biden’s term began.”

None of these threats are discussed by Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. The extent of his deceptive testimony to Congress rises to the level of perjury.

The House Judiciary Committee has been outraged. In a September, letter, Chairman Rep. Jim Jordan stressed that On July 26, 2023, during testimony before the Committee, Mayorkas repeatedly stated that aliens who are encountered at the southwest U.S. border are screened and vetted by Department of Homeland Security personnel. “When pressed about the status of the record number of aliens on the terrorist watchlist who have been encountered since President Biden took office, you [Mayorkas] reiterated that ‘individuals that present a national security or public safety threat are detained and are a priority for removal.’  Mayorkas’ testimony seemed incredible at the time, Jordan stated, and “now recent press reports appear to confirm that the Department is not securing the border from terrorists who pose a direct threat to our national security. According to reports, a foreign national with ties to ISIS, an Islamic State terrorist organization, helped to smuggle over 120 nationals of Uzbekistan, Russia, Georgia, and Chechnya into the United States through the southwest border. These foreign nationals reportedly arrived at the border, claimed asylum, and were released into the country by the Biden Administration. These reports seem to directly contradict your testimony under oath that all aliens encountered at the border who pose national security threats are detained and removed. Even if the national security threat was not apparent when these aliens were screened, the Administration’s open-border policies still has created a national security threat to all Americans.”

The Biden Administration contends that he inherited a “broken system.” However, a 2022 Senate Minority Report found that “Illegal migration to the United States has reached astronomical levels since the Biden Administration entered office in January 2021. The sheer number of illegal migrants, combined with the evolving tactics that transnational criminal organizations (TCOs) employ to smuggle and traffic individuals, presents an untenable security and humanitarian situation.”

In June, Senator Mike Lee (R-Utah) wrote, “The only concern this administration has is optics; it is giving illegal, inadmissible entrants the trappings of legality – whether through unlawful parole or the use of an app—just to manage the illegal flow and hide the truth from the American people.”

The Biden Administration’s illegal immigration deceptions will have dire consequences for years in the future, as rising crime and the potential of many more 9/11 attacks will be prevalent.

Illustration: Pixabay

Before previous conflicts, a potential enemy would pre-position ships, planes and tanks in order to swiftly and decisively cripple an opponent. In the 21^st century, computer-based threats are being used to destroy a nation’s ability to survive.

The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), the National Security Agency and Federal Bureau of Investigation along with key U.S. and international government agencies have issued an alert about China’s state-sponsored cyber actor, known as Volt Typhoon, attempt to  compromise critical infrastructure with the aim of crippling America in the event of a conflict between Washington and Beijing.

CISA and other federal departments have confirmed that this group of China state-sponsored cyber actors has compromised entities across multiple critical infrastructure sectors in cyberspace, including communications, energy, transportation, and water and wastewater, in the United States and its territories. The information strongly suggests that China is positioning itself to launch destructive cyber-attacks that would jeopardize the physical safety of Americans and impede military readiness in the event of a major crisis or conflict with the United States.

In recent years, Washington has noted a strategic shift in China’s cyber threat activity from a focus on espionage,  to pre-positioning for possible disruptive cyber-attacks against U.S. critical infrastructure. By using “living off the land” techniques, Beijing’s  cyber actors blend in with normal system and network activities, avoid identification by network defenses, and limit the amount of activity that is captured in common logging configurations.

CISA notes that “Detecting and mitigating ‘living off the land’ malicious cyber activity requires a multi-faceted and comprehensive approach to discern legitimate behavior from malicious behavior and conduct behavior analytics, anomaly detection, and proactive hunting.”

China’s cyber threat is not theoretical, indeed, it is a real-world and existing threat.   Using information from government and private industry CISA teams has found and eradicated Volt Typhoon intrusions into critical infrastructure across multiple sectors. However, what they have found to date is “likely the tip of the iceberg,” said CISA Director Jen Easterly. “[the advisory is] “the result of effective, persistent operational collaboration with …industry, federal, and international partners … We are at a critical juncture for our national security.CISA strongly encourages all critical infrastructure organizations to review and implement the actions in these advisories and report any suspected Volt Typhoon or living off the land activity to CISA or FBI.”

After successfully gaining access to legitimate accounts, Volt Typhoon actors exhibit minimal activity within the compromised environment) suggesting their objective is to maintain persistence rather than immediate exploitation. This assessment is supported by observed patterns where Volt Typhoon methodically re-targets the same organizations over extended periods, often spanning several years, to continuously validate and potentially enhance their unauthorized accesses. Evidence of their meticulous approach is seen in instances where they repeatedly exfiltrate domain credentials, ensuring access to current and valid accounts. For example, in one compromise, Volt Typhoon likely extracted NTDS.dit from three domain controllers in a four- year period. In another compromise, Volt Typhoon actors extracted NTDS.dit two times from a victim in a nine-month period.

According to CISA, Industry reporting—identifying that Volt Typhoon actors are silent on the network following credential dumping and perform discovery to learn about the environment, but do not exfiltrate data—is consistent with the U.S. authoring agencies’ observations. This indicates their aim is to achieve and maintain persistence on the network. In one confirmed compromise, an industry partner observed Volt Typhoon actors dumping credentials at regular intervals.

In addition to leveraging stolen account credentials, the actors use LOTL techniques and avoid leaving malware artifacts on systems that would cause alerts. Their strong focus on stealth and operational security allows them to maintain long-term, undiscovered persistence. Further, Volt Typhoon’s operational security is enhanced by targeted log deletion to conceal their actions within the compromised environment.

The warning is based primarily on technical insights gleaned from CISA and industry response activities at victim organizations within the United States, primarily in communications, energy, transportation, and water and wastewater sectors.

Illustration: Pixabay