Category: NY Analysis

America’s adversaries are, in some areas, exceeding America in new and dangerous military technology.

Since the end of the Second World War, it has been generally believed that the Pentagon had a commanding lead in advanced weaponry that was sufficient to deter even opponents that had larger forces. That is no longer accurate. In fact, China Russia have erased that advantage.

In fact, China Russia have erased that advantage in crucial areas such as hypersonic technology.

Through a combination of a devotion to internal research and development, as well as effective intelligence programs aimed at stealing western tech, Beijing and Moscow boast world-leading military advances.

In a November 8 release, the House Select Committee on China’s chairman John Moolenaar (R-MI) stated that: “the Chinese Communist Party is co-opting American AI to fuel its military agenda. By weaponizing our open-access technology, the CCP is using U.S. innovation to tip the global balance of power, undermining our security and the principles of open collaboration.”

Moolenaar was commenting on Jamestown Foundation research   that exposed an  “…urgent threat, demanding a critical reassessment of how we protect our technological edge from exploitation.”

The report noted that “Researchers in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) have optimized Meta’s Llama model for specialized military and security purposes. ChatBIT, an adapted Llama model, appears to be successful in demonstrations in which it was used in military contexts such as intelligence, situational analysis, and mission support, outperforming other comparable models. Open-source models like Llama are valuable for innovation, but their deployment to enhance the capabilities of foreign militaries raises concerns about dual-use applications. The customization of Llama by defense researchers in the PRC highlights gaps in enforcement for open-source usage restrictions, underscoring the need for stronger oversight to prevent strategic misuse.”

Even beyond appropriating western advances, Russia and China and moved diligently to establish militaries equipped with advanced, in some cases ground-breaking, tech.

The Eurasia Times and the South China Morning Post, reports that AI’s application in weaponry is already widely recognized, and now, Chinese technology has further enhanced its capabilities. According to the South China Morning Post, scientists in China’s defense sector have developed a generative AI designed to enhance electronic warfare drone capabilities.

Some of the tech resembles that seen in science fiction movies. The New York Post recently found that the Chinese military has developed a high-powered microwave weapon, somewhat similar to the primary weapon in Star War’s Death Star.

The prestigious Chatham House organization recently described Russia’s intent to lead the field in high tech.

“New weapons systems, dubbed Putin’s superoruzhie (‘super weapons’) and first unveiled in 2018, signal Russia’s intent to innovate in the defence-industrial field to counter the perceived conventional military superiority of great power competitors such as the US and its NATO allies. Russia is pursuing the incremental integration of asymmetric force-multiplier technologies into its established and legacy weapons systems. Meanwhile, the defence industry is developing new systems and capabilities in military robotics and has successfully integrated unmanned vehicles, particularly aerial drones, into its military operations. In the space sector, Russia is pursuing the development of capabilities able to potentially counter and disrupt an adversary’s satellite operations. Finally, AI technologies are being developed with a view to the disruption of Western command and control systems and communication facilities, as well as the establishment of information superiority.”

The Institute for Science and International Security  warns that “A dangerous new weapons technology partnership between Iran and Russia is emerging with deadly consequences for the United States, Israel, and their allies. This axis, helped importantly by China, exchanges finished military hardware and the technology to replicate and produce it. With the advent of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the transfer of weapons technology from Iran to Russia has developed on a large scale. The Ukraine war has led Russia to seek goods from Iran, including prominently a $1.75 billion purchase of Shahed 136 kamikaze drones and their production know-how. As it produces the Shahed drones, known in Russia as the Geran 2 drone, Russia has improved it. Based on the extensive interactions in Iran and in Russia between Iranian experts and the drone manufacturer, JSC Alabuga, there are grounds to believe that Russian improvements in the drone’s design and production have filtered back to Iran. Additionally, Iran is interested more generally in Russian military technologies.”

Illustration: Pixabay

Will the 2024 election be fair? Authors Gregory Stenstom and Scott Powell provide key insights and warning signs. If you missed the program on your local channel, tune in at https://rumble.com/v5krlvp-the-american-political-zone-october-29-2024.html

China is facing an insurmountable demographic challenge and long-standing problem with its female citizenry. It is not improving this fall despite cries for reform. Instead, while President Xi Jinping is calling on the country to practice traditional family values, companies ignore the CCP leadership and choose to continue forcing women to take pregnancy tests before hiring a female of child-bearing age. The firms don’t want to assume the cost of maternity leave or to support the modern feminist movement in China. 

Just over a year ago, in August 2023, Xi Jinping delivered a key policy speech on the issue of marriage and childbearing during a conference of the All-China Women’s Federation. In his talk he referenced the falling birth rates and encouraged “women to uphold the traditional virtues of the Chinese people” (传统美德) and “promote positive family traditions.” He emphasized the need to “actively foster a new culture of marriage and childbearing” (新型婚育文化). 

At the same time as the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership is calling on women to bear more children, there is ongoing discrimination in the workplace over the fertility issue. A recent Lingua Sinica article pointed out that a report last month in China Worker (中国劳工论坛), a Chinese-language website managed by the Belgium-based International Socialist Alternative, revisited an in-depth study from earlier this year. It says that it “found that local employers in the city of Nantong, in Jiangsu province, were often requiring women to undergo pregnancy tests during the hiring process… [an] investigation found that at least 168 women had been subjected to such tests across 16 companies studied, highlighting systemic discrimination against female workers.” This is only one example among many across-the-board cases of discrimination in China based on marital or reproductive status.

The All-China Women’s Federation (ACWF) publishes a paper called China Women’s News  (中国妇女报). It is the official newspaper of the ACWF. Even in this publication propaganda overtakes its stated goal to “sensitize society to women and women to society, advocate gender equality, and promote women’s progress and development.” A review of the front page of the publication from October 9 to October 16, 2024, shows that 60% of the news is centered on government policies and general stories and only 4% is focused on women. Family planning topics pushed by the CCP tie the level of front-page news about President Xi at 16%. In China, women quietly joke that above the fold is “strictly a man’s world” and that it reflects the values of the CCP, not those of Chinese women.

Customs typically take a long time to change, especially in China. Young women are not answering the CCP’s call to immediately birth more babies to stop the population decline. They prefer to remain in the professional workforce, maintain their status, and open lifestyle, in defiance the CCP’s mandate to help the nation repopulate. Even monetary incentives have not been enough to go back to the days of women suffering “wedding hazing” and remaining “barefoot and pregnant.” In an attempt to advocate for marriage, a Shanghai publication called simply The Paper (澎湃), compiled several egregious examples of “wedding hazing” from the past two decades, including shocking acts of violence disguised as tradition and demanded change. It reported that “wedding hazing” serves as an excuse for abusive behavior rather than a genuine cultural practice. During hazing a bride may be tied to a telephone pole, humiliated by bystanders, and pelted with eggs, among other abuses. According to Lingua Sinica, “Historical texts from the Eastern Han dynasty (25-220 AD) recount crude and sometimes violent customs, including physical assaults on both brides and grooms. In the past, this served to break the ice between the bride and groom — often strangers until their wedding day —  and to create a jovial atmosphere. Today, acts of ‘wedding hazing’ can also become social media memes, exposing individuals of all genders to online harassment as they are coerced into partaking in these humiliating acts.”

Although the government is calling for change, it will not be in time to reverse the demographic trend that dooms China’s population curve. The decline began in 2021 and is expected to continue as the average age increases and the number of women in child-bearing years declines. Within 70 years China’s population is projected to be 50% the size of today’s number. That makes Xi Jinping a more desperate and unpredictable leader. A question asked this fall in Washington is, what is President Xi willing to do in the near future to secure his country’s future and his own legacy and will it occur before a new president takes office.

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.

Photo: Pixabay

By their nature successful borders need to be occupied with cooperation from both sides. That type of relationship exists currently on Russia’s eastern front with China. Since World War II it also has existed on Russia’s west with Finland. This year, however,  the Russo-Finnish border relationship is showing indications that it is deteriorating. Its loss of integrity is emerging as a flashpoint between Helsinki and Moscow, as well as emerging as a potential North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) security issue.

There is a little-known area called the Saimaa Canal that was built in 1856 and has been upgraded a number of times to accommodate modern shipping requirements. It links Lake Saimaa to the Gulf of Finland. The Canal passes through 21 miles of Russian territory. Both nation-states have reduced their use of the canal due to sanctions, countersanctions, and fear that its use could pose a national security threat with unintended consequences. 

Finland “rents” the waterway from Russia and uses it for the transportation of consumer goods from areas as far away as China. It is the sole agreement Russia has with a foreign state to “rent” out its territory. Many political leaders in the Kremlin want it to end. Military analysts in Washington believe that Putin is seriously considering canceling the bilateral agreement. Loss of the commercial waterway will hurt both countries. The situation escalated after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and intensified after Finland joined NATO in 2023. This fall it is not only a growing point of contention between the Russian Federation and NATO, but China is also becoming involved as it represents a potential loss of one of its important trade routes. 

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine traffic on the waterway has almost slowed to a halt. Leaders in Helsinki view the potential loss of the Canal as an attempt by Putin to undermine Finland’s independence. From Moscow’s perspective, it is convinced that “NATO is planning to use the waterway to invade Russi if Putin’s oft-threatened war between Russia and the West breaks out in earnest,” says Paul Goble of the Jamestown Foundation. EU sanctions, he adds, limit Russian transit through the canal and stops at its various ports. Russian counter-sanctions on Finland reduced trade going in the other direction. Finland believes conflict could break out if Russia uses covert forces or sends in large numbers of refugees.

On September 11, the Finish Ministry of Transport and Communications announced it was indefinitely suspending the Saimaa Canal Advisory Board that oversees canal cooperation with Moscow. “Last week, well-connected Russian commentators suggested that the Kremlin is mulling canceling the agreement that allows Helsinki to rent the portion of the waterway on Russian territory—a step permitted this year under the most recent bilateral treaty governing the canal,” says Goble. If cancelled, it would effectively end the waterway as a trade route and have broad economic consequences for the two states directly involved and for the Central Asian states and China. Goble suggests the stage is set for it to also send “political shockwaves” with the potential for the shuttering of the Saimaa Canal to devolve into a major international crisis. The Russian publication TopWar.ru says that Russian rhetoric regarding Finland over the last two and a half years has become increasingly sharp, and Helsinki has responded in kind, with President Alexander Stubb declaring that his country does not fear Russia and is not about to be pushed around.

Building an alternative route would be extremely expensive for Finland. Russia would lose a valuable  source of income, totaling $1.5 million in annual canal rent, and much of its remaining leverage over Helsinki. Perhaps more significant, is that China would be enraged by the loss of the commercial waterway should Moscow back out of the agreement. Putin appears to be left with fewer and fewer options as the war drags on in Ukraine. 

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Department

Photo: Pixabay

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The Biden Administration has done far more than normalize the practice of illegal immigration, in open defiance of U.S. law.  It has created an environment in which the needs of those entering the nation illegitimately have priority over citizens.   In some jurisdictions, Funding for essential services is jeopardized due to the fiscal strain resulting from the influx of border crossers.

Not long after taking office, the newly elected Administration limited arrests and deportations carried out by Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

Colorado Rep. Douglas Lamborn notes that President Obama’s reckless immigration policies and unlawful executive amnesty orders have led to a staggering increase of 2.5 million illegal immigrants nationwide. The American people understand what a dangerous precedent this is. Each year, hundreds of thousands of aliens deliberately violate our nation’s laws by unlawfully crossing U.S. borders. Today, there are an estimated 12 million illegal immigrants currently residing in the United States.

U.S. Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) has emphasized that President Biden has the authority to address the crisis at the southern border, but he has simply chosen not to act. … the crisis at the border from becoming a full-blown catastrophe.

Rather than address the challenges of illegal immigration, the Administration has done all it can to encourage the practice.   The Federation for American Immigration Reform reports that Former Border Patrol Chief Rodney Scott has testified that the Biden Administration’s priority [is]  to release aliens as quickly as possible.  He stated, “During my tenure as Chief, the Biden administration’s team at DHS was laser-focused on expediting the processing and flow of migrants into the U.S.  They downplayed or completely refused to accept the significant vulnerability this creates for terrorists, narcotics smugglers, human traffickers, and even hostile nations to gain access to our homeland.”

Not satisfied with ignoring U.S. law regarding illegal immigration and encouraging more border crossing, Biden has attacked those who have attempted to deal with the problem. His Administration has criticized Border Patrol Agents for merely doing their job, and has now attacked the State of Texas for implementing water-borne barriers.  It has abandoned material already purchased by the prior Administration meant to be used for border wall construction.

A Heritage study found that “The list of lies administration officials have told regarding their handling of illegal immigration is extensive and still growing. When asked why the administration was flying illegal immigrants in the middle of the night, press secretary Jen Psaki belittled the reporter and then lied. By failing to detain or remove single adult males, the Administration has removed the last disincentive to illegal immigration.

In August, CBS reported that the White House has allowed 200,000 migrants to enter the U.S. in just the prior10 months.

The President’s tilt towards illegals at the expense of the citizenry is a nod towards his party’s preferences.  Democrats in the House have recently filed legislation to issue green cards to illegals.

In 2022, Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody took legal action against the Biden administration for ignoring federal immigration law. She noted that “According to federal law, arriving immigrants, including those claiming asylum, are required by law to be detained while immigration courts determine if there is a valid basis to enter the United States. As a result of the Biden administration’s illegal abdication of duty, U.S. Customs and Border Protection has already released more than 225,000 illegal border crossers this year… The Biden administration’s brazen disregard for federal immigration law is jeopardizing the safety and security of our state and nation…Biden’s border policy is an open invitation to dangerous criminals, human traffickers and drug traffickers to enter the United States—creating a crisis at the Southern Border like we have never seen. Because Biden is not requiring those crossing the border to go through the legally mandated channels, they are coming into our country without being properly processed…The federal government cannot simply ignore federal laws because it does not agree with them politically.”

Photo: U.S. Mexican border (Pixabay)

In the early 1980’s, when China first opened to the West, American businessmen received verbal warnings from those who previously had traveled to China to trade with the communist state. Typically one might be told, “You need to be aware that the Chinese government has nèibù [内部] and wàibù [外部] laws that foreigners must follow.” The problem centered on that it was illegal for a Chinese citizen to discuss the details of nèibù or “internal only laws” with foreigners, although all non-Chinese must obey both internal and external rules. This past week President Xi Jinping promulgated a new law that Beijing says legitimizes even tougher measures on foreigners, to deal with qīlíng [欺凌] or “bullying” by the West. The statute, according to Willy Wo-Lap Law of the Jamestown Foundation, took effect on July 1. He says: “’The Law on Foreign Relations of the People’s Republic of China (PRC)’… will… anchor the supreme leader’s long-standing aspiration to build a China-centric global order that will challenge the framework established by the US-led Western Alliance since the end of World War II.” 

By codifying Xi’s total control over all policies regarding diplomacy and national security, the Chinese publication People’s Daily says that “the law stays true to the vision of common, comprehensive, cooperative, and sustainable global security, and endeavors to strengthen international security cooperation and its participation in mechanisms of global security governance.” In pragmatic terms the new law blatantly justifies Beijing to take “corresponding countermeasures and restrictive measures” when it believes others are violating international laws or that “endanger China’s sovereignty, security, and development interests.”

The Global Times reports the statute is in response to “new challenges in foreign relations, especially when China has been facing frequent external interference in its internal affairs under the western hegemony with unilateral sanctions and long-arm jurisdiction.” It appears the law allows the retaliatory blacklisting of foreign nationals and institutions if other nation-states act against Chinese firms for spying, theft of intellectual property, or other unsanctioned economic activities. Lam says that the promulgation of a counter-espionage law earlier this year “already places businesspeople from different countries in a potentially compromising situation.” The environment is more inhospitable today.

China’s definition of “spying” or the “leaking of state secrets” is very different from definitions used in the West. This year public security officers have cracked down on a number of multinational due diligence companies, accounting firms and others handling sensitive financial dates, notes Lam. He adds that “the CCP administration has also restricted the activities of American IT firm Micron in an apparent tit-for-tat response to Washington’s efforts to punish Chinese IT firms with links to national security and military units.” 

China does not abide by global norms and practices in the areas of freedom of information, disclosure of holdings of stakeholders, or rules for open bidding on contracts. Nor has President Xi condemned Putin’s “special military action” in Ukraine, despite China’s claim that it respects the territorial integrity of all nations. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in recent times has moved aggressively in the Taiwan Strait, Sea of Japan, and the South China Sea belying its commitment to the rules-based international system. It also continues to challenge the order in the region in defiance of the United Nations’ Court of Final Appeal in the Hague condemning China for violations of international law. At every turn China is defying the international rules-based order. It also remains silent on the Wagner mercenary group move against the Kremlin, although the Russian Deputy Foreign Minister did make an unplanned trip to Beijing last week to meet with Chinese officials. 

Analysts in Washington note that the Wagner Group has weakened Putin’s position and as a key ally of Xi’s, also hurt China’s attempt to establish an “axis of autocratic states” in Central Asia under the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the BRICS mechanism. Chinese officials defiantly argue that they will not allow the country to be contained by Washington or the West, and that it will continue pushing its open-door policy as formulated under Deng Xiaoping in 1978. Lam points out that promises made earlier by Beijing “regarding the liberalization of control of foreign-exchange movements and other measures deemed to restrict the business opportunities of multinationals have yet to be honored.” 

In the end the new law effectively provides Xi additional cover for his support of Vladimir Putin. Western analysts point out that Xi may prefer to keep Putin in power so the West remains focused on Europe and not on Asia. More significantly, some suggest Xi is concerned that a successor may not be as agreeable to play the secondary role in the bilateral relationship under his “Great renaissance of the Chinese nation” that is intended to remake the world order following a Chinese model.  

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.

Photo: Minister Wang Wentao Attended State Council Information Office Press Conference to Brief Reporter on Commerce issues (China Trade Ministry)

Bilateral cooperation between Russia and Iran runs much deeper than a single shipment of Iranian-made drones for Moscow’s use in the war in Ukraine. Regular arms deliveries from Tehran to Moscow now also include large shipments of drones and surface-to-surface missiles. Russia, in turn, is sending advanced weapons stolen from the West and cash to Iran. In late November Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported that Iran is studying the weapons it receives and working to reverse engineer the systems. According to Stephen Blank of the Jamestown Foundation, it is possible that the “modifications Russian forces introduced to the Shaheed-136 drone to improve its accuracy may have been communicated to Iran ahead of time, as suggested by the drone strike on an Israeli-owned oil tanker on November 15.” It does not stop there. Asia Times notes that Russian re-engineered drones produced originally by Iran could pose a major existential threat to shipping routes from the Persian Gulf, Black, Baltic, and Mediterranean seas and as far away as the Indian Ocean. Naval experts in Washington are concerned that progress on these weapons could be the first part of an Iranian sea-denial strategy aimed at fulfilling Tehran’s desire to control vast swaths of the Middle East and beyond. Earlier this summer Tehran launched its Khayyam satellite on a Russian Soyuz rocket from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan. It was designed for use, according to Iranian sources, for “border surveillance of agriculture, monitoring land use changes such as unauthorized construction, deforestation and environmental hazards and scouting for mineral deposits, among others.

More concerning it that the satellite could be used to conduct reconnaissance of Ukrainian groupings and weapons systems, according to an August 11 Russian Space Web story. It reports that beginning in 2018 Russia and Iran have also been conducting negotiating to secure delivery of a Russian Kanopus-V satellite with “high-resolution cameras” for Tehran. Many in the US intelligence community also believe that Iran wants Russia’s help to expand and speed its nuclear program in the area of nuclear materials and fuel fabrication. Although Iran may not possess an assembled nuclear weapon, with Russia’s assistance it could achieve “nuclear latency,” or the ability to assemble one in a short period of time. As Russo-Irian political and economic ties strengthen, so does anti-American sentiment driving those policies. 

In December the Tasnim News Agency (TNA) reported that Iran and Russia were working on new frameworks and mechanisms for deepening their relationship that “go beyond Syria and military transfers to include the Caucasus, where Iran is already expanding its influence to the point of dangerously mounting tensions with Azerbaijan and Turkey.” TNA says that Russia and Iran were growing closer before the war in Ukraine, but are even closer now. It points out that “a gas swap, which would allow Iran to import Russian gas and then export it to third countries, is in the works.” As Putin and the Iranian president continue building cooperative ties, Iran is working to circumvent Western sanctions through a joint working group. Lastly, Iran asked for Putin’s help in suppressing the long-running demonstrations across the country by transferring Russian anti-riot equipment and training to Tehran earlier this month. As the war progresses in Ukraine, the West must remember that Russia is engaged in other parts of the world, including the Middle East and the Caucasus. Israel has labeled the growing bilateral relationship “dangerous” and that this new entente will give Tehran cover in Syria to expand its activities up to the Israeli border. Russia, the Jerusalem Post says, “might step in to limit Israeli air strikes against Iranian facilities and installations there.” Taking advantage of the increasingly visible estrangement between Riyadh and Washington, the Post suggests that Moscow is trying to facilitate a means by which Iran and Saudi Arabia might mend their differences, a development that, if it occurs, would send shockwaves throughout the Middle East. Russia’s growing ties with Iran could represent a risk to Middle East stability and security and a major rupture in the non-proliferation order. 

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.

Illustration: Pixabay

As Arctic-like temperatures descend on the United States this week, we are reminded that there is a great frozen north that can impact events outside the immediate region. The Arctic today plays an increasingly important geopolitical role with the growing potential of a year-round new Northern Passage for commercial shipping, technologically available energy rich resources, and an expanded Russian military presence in the area. Moscow is continuing to build military bases there despite Putin’s ongoing war in Ukraine. CNN reports that in an exclusive interview on Friday NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said there is now “a significant Russian military build-up in the high north,” with recent tensions causing the alliance to “double its presence” in response.

A senior Western intelligence official, according to CNN, says Russia has withdrawn as much as 75% of its land forces from the High North region near the Arctic and reassigned them to the war in Ukraine. Maxar Technologies, a company that provides disruptive earth intelligence to governments and the private sector, was able to produce a series of satellite pictures that show while the number of soldiers may have decreased, Russian radar bases and runways in the Arctic are undergoing improvements over the past year. The geospacial information indicates that even though resources are scarce, it is evidence Putin continues to prioritize fortification and expansion of the country’s defensive posture in the High North. Many analysts agree that a regional conflict among great powers remains unlikely in the near future. Putin’s determination to continue military projects, however, remains significant.

There are important changes to the radar stations at the Olenegorsk site, on the Kola Peninsula in northwest Russia, and at Vorkuta, just north of the Arctic circle. Satellite images also depict work moving ahead to complete one of five Rezonans-N radar systems at Ostrovnoy, a site located by the Barents Sea, near Norway and Finland in Russia’s west. These radar systems, according to Russian military officials, can detect stealth aircraft and objects. Russia is not only building radar systems but radomes, the weatherproof enclosures used to the radar antennas. At the Nagurskoye and “Temp” Air Bases, Russia is also making improvements to the runways and aprons.

The Arctic is key to Russia’s expanding oil and gas sector but more importantly, from a military perspective, it is critical to Moscow’s nuclear defenses. By refurbishing and upgrading Soviet era bases Putin can project power and protect the country’s sophisticated nuclear weaponry and submarine facilities. “That deterrence has always been ready,” said a senior Western intelligence official. “It’s never down to low readiness; it’s a high status all the time,” the official told CNN Friday. Stoltenberg points out that “The shortest way from Russia to North America is over the Arctic North Pole. The strategic importance of these areas has not changed because of the war in Ukraine… We see Russia reopening old Soviet bases, military sites” and its “testing novel weapons in the Arctic and the high north.” 

Economically the region’s contributions amount to about 20% of Russia’s total GDP. Although Russia’s land force strength in the region is lower, Moscow’s navy is not impacted, nor is its overall defense posture. The area’s rapidly melting ice will soon open a much shorter commercial shipping route along Russia’s coastline from Southeast Asia to Europe.

 Unlike the United States Russia owns a fleet of atomic-powered ice breakers that will enable it to take full advantage of the warming trend. “The war in Ukraine has boosted NATO’s presence in the region. Once Finland and Sweden join the block, as is widely expected, seven out of eight Arctic states will be NATO members,” according to Nick Walsh and Sarah Dean of CNN. They point out that NATO has also become increasingly concerned about the potential sabotage of Norway’s oil and gas infrastructure. Since Russian energy is subject to sanctions, Norway’s natural gas makes up more than 20% of Europe’s supply. To ensure energy security, Stoltenberg says NATO has doubled its presence in the region with submarines and maritime patrol aircraft as a message of readiness and deterrence in the protection of critical infrastructure. Should Putin decide to return troops to the Arctic bases, he can do it in a short period of time.

It will be important to watch developments over the coming year to see if Putin has other plans for the region given th country’s commitment to building permanent infrastructure.  

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.

Photo: Pixabay