Caribbean Crisis, Conclusion

Clearly, the heightened presence of enemy forces throughout Latin America has the Pentagon worried.

In February, Daniel Erikson, the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Western Hemisphere noted that “China and Russia each pose different challenges for Latin America and the Caribbean, so there needs to be adjustments to the Defense Department’s strategies as well.

“The Department of Defense clearly plays a very important role in terms of working with partner militaries in the region and enhancing defense cooperation and our ability to work together more seamlessly across multiple domains, including air, land, sea, space, and cyberspace,” Erikson emphasized at an Atlantic Council event dedicated to Countering China and Russia in Latin America and the Caribbean.

The Deputy Secretary noted that there are some very important elements to the challenges posed by both China and Russia that require a whole-of-government response because they are pursuing economic, political and diplomatic interests. “With so many challenges, the department has had to prioritize and deal with core risks or threats to U.S. and allies’ interests. The importance of democracy and democratic governance in this region is one of the United States’s core ideals…We at DOD take very seriously the need for civilian control of the military, respect for human rights, and ensuring that militaries are abiding by the constitutional norms put forth by their democratic governments…”

Erickson added that “Besides military partnerships, it’s critical that the U.S. private sector, U.S. industry and relevant U.S. agencies are engaging with this region “to ensure that we can make available offerings — whether it’s in defense, cyber, or in other areas — to meet the core national security needs of the countries there, Erikson said.

For example, it’s important for nations to protect their critical, national-security infrastructure and ensure that they are only using trusted vendors for such items as telecommunications equipment, which could have military benefits to China…I also think that across U.S. industry, there really needs to be a deeper dive into what we can do to provide Latin American and Caribbean countries with the capabilities that they require at a price that they can afford…”

Latin American governments are fiscally constrained and, in many cases, have underinvested in critical infrastructure for many years, he added.

Countries in the region are facing transnational criminal organizations, climate threats, and border disputes. “So,” the Deputy Secretary noted, “…they look at the risk posed by [China] as something that is going to come, perhaps, in the future — but not today. And so, really, educating our partners and making sure they’re aware of how some of the decisions that they make today could create long-term risk for them is really critical.”

South American nations have been using their military equipment for years, which limits interoperability with the U.S. and allies, he stated. “At the end of the day, the way that the United States can meet the challenge that’s posed by great power competition in Latin America and the Caribbean is, really, by having a very proactive, affirmative and engaged U.S. agenda with the region and not just telling other countries what they shouldn’t be doing with other partners, but what they can do with the United States…”

Discussions about equipment, alliances and the like are important. However, without the resolute will to counter enemy forces on America’s own doorstep, it will be irrelevant. According to some reports, President Biden considered suspending a U.S. submarine visit to Guantanamo Bay while the Russian naval flotilla. More rational individuals at the Pentagon stressed that this would send a terrible message of weakness, not just to the Russians and Chinese but to our allies worldwide.

Photo: Colombian Aerospace Force HH-60 Black Hawk helicopter prepares to take off during combined Exercises Angel de los Andes and Relampago VIII in Palanquero, Colombia, Aug. 22, 2023. U.S. Southern Command and 12th Air Force (Air Forces Southern) are committed to strengthening partnerships in Latin America and the Caribbean to improve collective ability to meet complex global challenges (DoD photo)

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.