Can Sri Lanka-Type Attacks Happen in U.S.?

Can the type of terrorist attack that occurred in Sri Lanka on Easter happen in the United States?

290 lives were lost and up to 500 injuries resulted from what that nation’s government calls a “new form of terrorism.” 24 people have been arrested. There are concerns that further explosive devices may still be present at diverse locations. An IED (improvised explosive device) was found and deactivated near Bandaranaike Airport, near Colombo, the capital city.

World Watch Monitor had previously reported that the National Christian Evangelical Alliance of Sri Lanka described numerous attacks against Christians and Muslims in the past several years, and placed blame on a Buddhist nationalist organization called Bodu Bala Sena (BBS) or the “Buddhist Power Force.” SriLanka is 45th on the Open Doors 2017 World Watch List, which ranks the 50 countries where Christians are most under pressure for their faith.

According to Reuters, “The Christian community had already felt under pressure in Sri Lanka in recent years. Last year, there were 86 verified incidents of discrimination, threats and violence against Christians…This year…recorded 26 such incidents, including one in which Buddhist monks allegedly attempted to disrupt a Sunday worship service, with the last one reported on March 25.”

Sri Lanka’s total population is approximately 22 million. 70% are Buddhist, 12.6% are Hindu, 9.7% are Muslim and 7.6 Christian, according to the country’s most recent census.

The current assault, however, may be the work of an Islamist extremist group. Foreign Policy reports that Sri Lanka’s government says the attacks were carried out by National Thowheeth Jama’ath, a little-known radical Islamist group. According to the Straits Times, 10 days before the attacks, a police official warned security authorities about a potential threat to Christians by National Thowheeth Jama’ath. Until recently, National Thowheeth Jama’ath was known primarily in for destroying Buddhist statues. In 2016, its Abdul Razik, described as the groups’ secretary,was arrested and charged for inciting racism. However,The Staits Times noted that Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe said that he and other top government officials had not been informed of the threat, and that “we must look into why adequate precautions were not taken”. The Jerusalem Post reports that Islamic extremist Imam Moulvi Zahran Hashim may be the mastermind behind the attacks.

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According to international security expert Grant Haber, “Authorities know Sri Lanka could absolutely happen in the US. You can bet there are terrorist plans already in action to attack places of worship in America. For decades I’ve been warning government officials that we’ve been going about the IED crisis the wrong way. We are giving our enemy a huge leg up” says Grant Haber, foremost expert on IED’s and Homemade Explosive Devices, such as the ones used in Sri Lanka. Once contained to troubled and distant lands, pipe bombs and other improvised explosive devices (IEDs) now pose a serious threat to federal, State, and local government facilities here in the United Slates. These devices can be easily and inexpensively assembled and placed in busy population centers. Schools, shopping malls, stadiums and other public places where people walk freely all are potential targets for terrorist attacks. Guarding against terrorist attacks involving IEDs starts with a basic understanding of a typical bomb. People must recognize that a bomb usually is made to look like all everyday widget and that the stereotypical bombs with burning fuses are virtually non-existent. The only common denominator that exists with all explosive devices is that they are intended to explode. For this reason, it is important to suspect anything that looks unusual, and to let a trained bomb technician determine whether it is an explosive device.”

The Department of Homeland Security notes that “Many commonly available materials, such as fertilizer, gunpowder, and hydrogen peroxide, can be used as explosive materials in IEDs. Explosives must contain a fuel and an oxidizer, which provides the oxygen needed to sustain the reaction. A common example is ANFO, a mixture of ammonium nitrate, which acts as the oxidizer, and fuel oil (the fuel source). Concern about the use of explosives created from liquid components that can be transported in a stable form and mixed at the site of attack is the reason that in 2006 the U.S. Department of Homeland Security restricted the amount of liquids that passengers can carry on commercial aircraft.

Illustration: Pixabay

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.