The United States faces the largest contiguous alliance of states opposed to Western ideals in the history of our country. While most news reports cover the war in Ukraine, Russia is busy shoring up its ability to cause trouble in the Middle East and the Caucasus. Russia, together with China, North Korea, and Iran, are working together to oppose American values, the dignity of individual lives, and the capitalist system that has raised so many societies out of poverty. The alliance is not only opposing the West on political and economic grounds, but these states today are also cooperating in the upgrade of their offensive military capabilities. A year ago this week, the world witnessed Russia attack its neighbor, Ukraine. This February the world is quietly witnessing the deepening of Russo-Iranian relations with news that Tehran is purchasing Russian-built Sukhoi Su-35 advanced fighter jets and not the less advanced Su-30’s.
Washington was able to stop past attempts by Algeria, Egypt, and Indonesia to purchase the Russian jets. To date, only China has succeeded in buying the Su-35 jets and India has made little progress in closing a similar deal, according to Vali Kaleji, of the Jamestown Foundation. “…in the new geopolitical environment brought on by Russia’s war against Ukraine, Iran may indeed become the new destination of the Russian fighter, which underlines a burgeoning military relationship between Moscow and Tehran,” says Kaleji.
Last September the world learned from the commander of the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force (IRIAF), Brigadier General Hamid Vahedi, that “the purchase of Sukhoi Su-35’s is currently being discussed, rather than Sukhoi Su-30’s,” according to the Tehran Times. The Russian jets are expected to arrive in Iran in less than four weeks. Russia also sold air defense systems, missile systems and helicopters; all of which are due in Iran soon. Euromaiden Press reported in mid-December that the fighter jet deal may have been part of an exchange for Iranian drones sent to Russia for use in its war in Ukraine.
So far, it appears the US intelligence community is finding it difficult to establish a clear and irrefutable link or contract between Moscow and Tehran, although Russia has not denied one exists. Kaleji suggests that deepening ties may be the reason for the secrecy as Russia and Iran are developing new defense and security programs. One analyst suggests that sanctions on Russia means they can’t deliver the 24 Su-35’s Iran ordered last year, however, most other analysts studying Russia argue that Moscow may have found a way around sanctions to obtain the special technology required from abroad to build the planes.
“Tehran’s purchase of Su-35 fighter jets would facilitate the renewal of some of the IRIAF’s capacities and possibly lay the foundation for further cooperation in defense production between Russia and Iran,” says Kaleji. According to the Russian-outlet Sputnik in late January, “Even though the cost of maintaining and operating this jet appears to be high for Iran, these costs could be reduced if there are agreements on the joint production of the Su-35 engine in the Islamic Republic.” The Russian jet is versatile and Iran may be capable of installing its original weapons on it. Should that occur, Putin will have in effect provided Iran a means of creating a combat-ready mini-AWACS [airborne warning and control system]. Kaleji argues that if the Russian jet is then connected to Iran’s radar network, it will acquire unique point defense capabilities. Along with other military purchases from Russia, Iran could gain a significant advantage over neighboring states and impact the balance of power in the Persian Gulf region, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia.
The Russian deal may also push other nearby states to try to secure a deal with the United States to obtain F-35 fighter jets. Although some Iranian experts suggest Iran’s power is based on deterrence backed by missiles and drone power and not a turning point, the Russian deal when finalized will be one of the most consequential arms purchases for the country since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. It will also represent a new era in Moscow’s relationship with Tehran and alter the balance of power throughout the South Caucasus and Middle East. Should the war in Ukraine expand into NATO Member states the US, under its obligations in the NATO Charter, would be required to support the states under attack.
At its present level, the United States cannot effectively handle military action simultaneously in two separate theaters of operation. The Su-35 advanced fighter jet deal may be the spark that ignites the Middle East.
Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Department
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