Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping said long ago that “No matter if it is a white cat or a black cat; as long as it can catch mice, it is a good cat.” His economic adage can be applied to assess the state of the geopolitical world. Setting the type of governmental system aside, are nation-states doing a good job managing the threat level today as we approach the US presidential election? It may be time to sound the alarm.
In 2024 the democratic world is not stable, nor are the revisionist powers responsible actors in world politics. Over the last four years, there has been an increasing number of multi-dimensional threats. They are complicated and span the globe. The United States, presumed leader of the free world, is essentially headless and without a coherent foreign policy. Without strong leadership over the last four years, virtually every continent has suffered from either economic or political instability, or both. The international order is in disarray.
The existential threat of our lifetime comes from China and Xi Jinping’s aggressive policy positions. More than once, he has stated his intent to remake the world according to China’s image with the government in Beijing and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) at the head. The CCP literally has bought economic influence around the globe, including in Washington, DC, in pursuit of its goal. Former senior staffers of top Congressional officers are lobbying for Chinese military companies that the Department of Defense has designated as “directly or indirectly owned, controlled or beneficially owned by” the Chinese military, as well as those that contribute to China’s military-industrial complex, according to Robert Schmad of the daily Caller.
This comes at a time when China’s grey zone policies include ongoing attempts to quarantine Taiwan. Analysts in Washington openly discuss China’s military capacity to launch an invasion of Taiwan, conduct an air and sea blockade the island, and control commerce across the South China Sea. They also debate whether the US could win a war in Asia against the communist giant. China is also applying pressure on international organizations to exclude Taiwan’s presence. Beijing’s reach today spans the globe and includes missions conducting research in the Arctic that concern the Pentagon due to their military nature.
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin is another leader complicit in the Axis of Disarray. It extends beyond his invasion of Ukraine, now approaching its 28 months this week. Russia’s so-called private security firms, in the post-Wagner period, are active in many regions. In Africa they are physically supporting counter insurgencies and anti-rebel groups in the Central African Republic, Mali, Libya, Mozambique, and Sudan. Russia is also running active political commercial operations in Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Madagascar, and Zimbabwe.
Military technology is posing yet another problem. For the first time in history, air defense systems are seeing a rapid proliferation of unmanned aerial vehicles capable of surveillance, carrying a payload of missiles, and other stand off fires. These low-cost systems enable state and non-state actors to engage in more extensive operations than in the past and further destabilize the world. It also adds the challenge of defending commercial sea routes. Once insignificant states, such as North Korea, now possess nuclear weapons and threaten to use them against the West.
The global supply chain faces a number of challenges, including how to secure the transit of ships carrying commercial goods though the Bosphorus Strait and Bab El-Mandeb Strait (near Yemen), and Suez Canal. China today controls approximately 90% of the South China Sea. That area is transited by more than two-thirds of the world’s oceanic commerce. China also runs the port authority at both ends of the Panama Canal.
Global instability is further exacerbated by state and non-state actors threatening the use of nuclear weapons. Iran is conducting a nuclear program it labels as a “Field Project” at the Iman Khomeini Space Center and Missile Headquarters. Two weeks ago, Iran conducted an underground nuclear test about 62 miles from its Semnan test facility, according to US intelligence sources. This is the same location where Iran conducted nuclear tests in 2003. Russian President Putin has also threatened the use of nuclear weapons if the West continues to oppose his occupation of Ukraine. The Kremlin has field exercised their use near the Ukrainian border.The revisionist powers, including China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, are coordinating their aggressive policies with the goal of eroding the balance of deterrence in the world. The threat level is high. With little leadership coming out of Washington, the Axis o