Author: Daria Novak

Qin Gang, China’s ambassador to the United States, delivered a blunt message on Taiwan Thursday  proclaiming: “If, …the Taiwanese authorities, emboldened by the United States…keep going down the road for independence, it most likely will involve China and the United States…in the military conflict.” Qin did not use the word “potential” when referring to military conflict. China has laid down the gauntlet. Will anyone pick it up? How the US and other free nations respond to Chinese aggression in the coming years will determine if the world is drawn into a major conflagration among nuclear powers. The rhetoric is intensifying lately as fast as China is deploying new offensive weapons.

Power politics is by far the prevailing paradigm that explains how the world operates. While some nation-states, especially the democratic West, prefer to use international institutions and diplomacy as the primary means to settle differences, it often is not possible when belligerent authoritarian leaders such as Chinese President Xi Jinping threaten or conduct warfare against other countries. Xi and the CCP leadership do not appear interested in a serious dialogue to calm the security environment in Asia. Some analysts in Washington now believe the US is much closer to a war with China than it is to a conflict with Russia. All three nations possess nuclear weapons. It could end very badly in either case.  

One of the main characteristics of the international system is that no country can fully know or trust the intentions of another nation-state. Treaties can be broken and verbal assurances by national leaders  retracted or ignored. Without trust and understanding there is little space left to prevent a new arms race from engulfing the major powers. This past week information out of China confirmed that it was able to use a mechanical arm on one of its new satellites to grab one of its “dead” devices and move it into another orbit several hundred miles away. American satellites tend to be geostationary and difficult to move, in other words, “sitting ducks.” In response to the new Chinese capability, the Pentagon is speeding up its space warfare program which was slated to have a similar satellite killing capability by 2025.

National security is critical to all countries and the United States is no different. We must be prepared to defend our country and support our allies. At the same time Washington also needs to improve its understanding of the “prime directive” driving others like China who oppose our way of life, just as they need to better understand us. Without war by other means, AKA talks across the negotiating table, the only space left for conflict is on the battlefield. Examining the situation today reminded me of an event I experienced in the fall of 1985 that drove home the point of how critical it is to understand “the other” and to capably predict events that will trigger foreign elite behaviors.

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Not long after the movie Amadeus came out, I served on the White House international advance team for trade talks in Beijing, China. As is customary, senior officials on both sides got together for the requisite social event in the Chinese capital. Selected high-ranked, Chinese diplomats and their American counterparts met at a theater for a showing of Amadeus. What struck me sitting among these leaders was how the entire group of Chinese officials in the audience were frozen in their seats with their eyes intently fixed on the screen during the entire movie. No one, literally, no one moved. When it was over the lights came on. Looking around I noticed the Chinese diplomats remained seated and were silently crying and wiping their eyes. Amadeus greatly impacted each of them. After discreetly inquiring, one Chinese official told me he didn’t know such beautiful music could exist in the capitalist West. He had never heard classical music in his life. He also disclosed that China did not, and would not be allowed, to produce this type of a creative show. By 1985 China had been open to the West for about six years or so. Yet even Beijing’s top-ranked leaders weren’t permitted to know about the West outside of the official propaganda produced by the CCP.

For over 70 years the CCP narrative delivered to the Chinese population, and its elite leadership, has painted a distorted picture of the West. They were taught the West is evil and that they should not believe anything coming out of a democratic state. They were brainwashed to trust no Westerner. Perhaps, worst of all, the indoctrination led those senior leaders to make very basic false assumptions about democracy itself. While we have a bit better understanding of each other today, Washington continues to be surprised by China’s technological and political accomplishments. 

As the communist giant rises like a Phoenix bird from the ashes of the Unequal Treaties period, the West must gain a better understanding of the source of Xi Jinping’s global modus operandi. He intends to make the return of Taiwan his legacy and to put China on a new path toward global hegemony. All one needs to do is look at a Chinese language world map where Beijing remains dead center. Understanding does not mean agreement with China’s goals or methods for achieving them. However, if we are to maintain the rules-based, international order that has produced an era of relative peace and prosperity in the world, we need to understand what drives Chinese behavior. 

Daria Novak previously served in the U.S. State Department. She lived for as time in China.

During the buildup to an international crisis, such as the potential Russian invasion of Ukraine, there are overlooked undertones that create a more complex and nuanced environment than is presented in the daily news cycle. When it comes to Russian-Ukrainian relations, Turkey is one such confounding factor. While the world is watching and waiting to see if Vladimir Putin creates a conflict in Ukraine, Ankara is playing an active, although less visible, role as one of Moscow’s Black Sea neighbors. Which side it supports, however, is a separate and complicated question.

Seven years after Russia first invaded the Donbass region Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense released video of a TB2 unmanned combat aerial vehicle (UCAV) striking a separatist D-30 howitzer in eastern Ukraine. The strike was the country’s first confirmed use of the now ubiquitous TB2, a Bayraktar-manufactured drone that the Turkish military has used effectively in Libya, Syria, and Nagorno Karabakh, which is an area of ethnic and territorial conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The Baykar company chief technology officer is President Erdoğan’s son-in-law. 

According to a recently released Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI) report, the Turkish-Ukrainian defense relationship is both understudied and potentially an important facet of how Russian political elites view North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) support for non-member Ukraine, and its potential to be “used to justify an invasion to assuage Moscow’s concerns about a US-allied military presence along its borders.” The TB2 probably will not alter Putin’s long-term plans but it does reinforce the bureaucratic mistrust between political leaders in Ankara and Moscow. 

Turkey stood apart from the Soviet Union during the Cold War. Since that time Turkish political leaders have paid close attention to its larger neighbor in an attempt to manage and deepened the relationship with Moscow. Since the 2016 failed coup attempt against President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan liberal institutions in Turkey have deteriorated and an authoritarian state has emerged. Erdoğan pushed away from the West and improved Turkey’s bilateral relationship with Russia. Putin was the first leader post-coup to call the Turkish president. Russia later sold Turkey its S-400 air and missile defense system. The United States warned Turkey of the threat the missiles posed to the F-35 fighter jet program in Turkey. According to the FPRI report, “Turkey was a Tier 3 member of the Joint Strike Fighter consortium and was slated to coproduce 100 F-35As and had explored purchasing a smaller number of F-35Bs for use by the Navy.” Ankara ignored the warnings and was expelled from the program and refused permission to purchase any F-35Bs. 

Erdoğan then made two juxtaposed decisions. Turkey signaled it would cooperate with Russia on 5th generation fighter technologies and also look into buying three squadrons of a Flanker variant for shorter term operational needs. At the same time, it also sought out Ukraine as a critical supplier of unmanned systems and turbofan engines for jet powered drones and aircraft for its indigenous defense programs. The Ukrainian-Turkish defense industry relationship remains intact today as each state produces items the other does not. Although it forces Erdoğan into a balancing act with Putin, the two leaders retain bilateral relations despite this issue.

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The Turkish-Ukrainian relationship pushes the Biden Administration into a tough position. Putin now can point to a NATO member state, Turkey, and demonstrate its military involvement and support for the leadership in Kiev as a justification for any across-the-border actions its takes against Ukraine. Erdoğan is attempting to force the Biden Administration into supporting its short-term fighter requirements in return for less military arms cooperation with Russia. Turkey walks a thin line in balancing its relationship with Moscow. This is especially so, according to the FPRI report, “Ankara can pursue a variation of this “fence sitting” policy [and] continue to export defense items to Kyiv, while simultaneously engaging Moscow, and resisting any US calls to independently support any coercive actions against Russia.” Aaron Stein, of FPRI, says that “Turkey is more likely to operate within the alliance, but resist calls to join US or EU calls to impose sanctions in response to an invasion.” 

The Turkish-made Stand-Off Munition, or SOM cruise missile, can be carried by Turkey’s newest drone: the Akinci. The risk it runs is a confrontation with Russian demands that NATO countries refrain from introducing long range missiles in Ukraine. The Biden Administration has “no interest in coercing its NATO ally from halting cooperation with Ukraine,” according to FPRI, but it is worth considering how third-party arms sales could negatively impact US interests in Europe. In the end, President Erdoğan relies on Turkey’s NATO membership to manage its relationship with Vladimir Putin. 

Daria Novak previously served in the U.S. State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

We have entered an American era when only a small group of privileged elites enjoy adequate representation.

Politicians ignore many voters. Union leaders act contrary to their members’ interest. Academics treat parents with contempt.

Many Americans have long suspected this was developing, but recent events have solidified their concerns. In particular, several stunning events have made it undeniably clear that the barons of government, labor and academia hold average Americans in utter contempt.

The concept of giving illegal aliens $450,000 in “damages” for being separated from the young people they defied the law and unlawfully crossed the border with is absurd, particularly when there is a significant possibility that those youth were transported for purposes of sex trafficking.

The very concept is extremely insulting, especially when the family of servicemembers killed in combat receive just $400,000. 

There is an increasing trend, supported largely in progressive-run cities, counties and states, to not cooperate with federal officials in dealing with the crime wave due to felonies committed by illegal immigrants.  Information on similar crimes committed by U.S. citizens that may have federal implications would be freely shared with Washington. In essence, illegals have been given greater rights than actual citizens.  The elected officials who subscribe to these “sanctuary city” measures have forgotten that they were elected to represent—and protect– Americans.

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Biden enjoyed the support of union leaders during his campaign.  That move was not backed by a substantial portion of rank-and-file members.  Their skepticism was well placed. In one of his first actions in office, the new President eliminated over 10,000 union jobs and cost union members about $2.2 billion in payroll.  The move shouldn’t have surprised anyone.

Energy and climate are key areas that have become a Progressive “Let them eat cake” moment, as the glitterati of politicians flew into Glasgow, Scotland on private jets and rode in stretch limousines to lecture mostly Americans on how to cut back on energy uses. Biden ignores the reality that the burden of the Paris Climate Accords, which he so vigorously supports, lays mostly on U.S. citizens, and will have relatively little impact on the environment. the President displays little regard for his constituents who can barely afford to drive to work or heat their homes due to his foolish energy policies. 

Senator John Barrasso (R-Wyo) chairman of the Committee on Environment and Public Works and member of the Committee on Foreign Relations, writing in USATODAY noted that “the climate deal punished America’s energy producers with expensive and burdensome regulations, it gave other countries U.S. taxpayer-funded subsidies and generous timelines. Countries like China got a free pass to pollute for over a decade. With abundant low-cost coal, China and India would put our manufacturers at a huge competitive disadvantage…”Forgetting whom he was elected to represent, Biden, while killing the Keystone Pipeline, nevertheless facilitated Russia’s similar project.

Elitist have used the very real threat of COVID as a wedge to wield ever greater power.  The absurd notion of suspending healthy police officers, particularly when crime is rising due to nonsensical no bail policies borders is gross arrogance. But many politicians don’t care.  After all, they can access taxpayer dollars or campaign contributions to provide private security for themselves. 

The most blatant example of elitist disregard for the average American can be seen in education. The ruling class of academic leaders, both in government, school administration and in union leadership puts students and their parents on the bottom of the list. Terry McAuliffe became the poster boy for arrogance when he proclaimed that parents had no say in their children’s curriculum, but the issue runs even deeper. Progressive and union campaigns against charter schools, and the increased diversion of funds away from actual teaching and towards other programs that have nothing to do with actual education is disgraceful.

Even Marie Antoinette would blush.

NASA’s goal of returning to the Moon achieved another milestone on January 24.

The space agency successfully conducted its second launch sequence of the system that will take U.S. astronauts back the lunar surface.

“The test demonstrated the ground launch software and ground launch sequencer, which checks the health and status of the rocket sitting on the pad,” noted a NASA release.

In the coming months, an uncrewed Artemis I mission will launch from Kennedy’s Launch Complex 39B. It will serve as the first integrated flight test of the Artemis deep space exploration systems. The first in a series of increasingly complex missions, the mission will provide a foundation for human deep space exploration and demonstrate the U.S. commitment and capability to establish a long-term presence at the Moon and beyond.

NASA’s powerful new rocket, the Space Launch System (SLS), will launch astronauts aboard the Orion spacecraft nearly a quarter-million miles from Earth to lunar orbit. 

The Moon plan is twofold: it’s focused on achieving the goal of an initial human landing by 2024 with acceptable technical risks, while simultaneously working toward sustainable lunar exploration in the mid- to late 2020s.

Three key elements comprise are involved.

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The first is the SLS rocket. The Space Launch System is an American super heavy-lift expendable launch vehicle under development by NASA since 2011. It replaces the Ares I and Ares V launch vehicles, which were cancelled by the Obama Administration along with the rest of the Constellation program, a previous program aimed to return to the moon. 

The second is the Orion spacecraft. NASA’s Orion spacecraft is built to take humans farther than they’ve ever gone before. It will serve as the exploration vehicle that will carry the crew to space, provide emergency abort capability, sustain the crew during the space travel, and provide safe re-entry from deep space return velocities.  The crew module is capable of transporting four crew members beyond the moon, providing a safe habitat from launch through landing and recovery. Inside the familiar deep-space capsule shape are advances in life support, avionics, power systems, and advanced manufacturing techniques.

The crew module is capable of transporting four crew members beyond the moon, providing a safe habitat from launch through landing and recovery. Inside the familiar deep-space capsule shape are advances in life support, avionics, power systems, and advanced manufacturing techniques.

The third is the Gateway lunar orbiting outpost. It will serve as a multi-purpose outpost orbiting the Moon that provides essential support for long-term human return to the lunar surface and serves as a staging points for deep space exploration.

When the first crewed flight test of the SLS and Orion, Artemis II, takes place, astronauts will return to the vicinity of the Moon for the first time in more than 50 years. At the end of this mission, NASA intends to have tested every hardware, software, and operational component of Artemis III except for the actual landing on the surface. 

Artemis III will be the culmination of the rigorous testing and nearly one million miles of flight demonstrations on the deep space transportation systems that NASA will accumulate during Artemis I and II. When Artemis III lands the first woman and next man on the Moon in 2024, NASA will focus on building a sustained presence on the lunar surface in preparation for long-term development on the Moon and the human exploration of Mars. 

There has been a significant amount of anxiety from some manned spaceflight advocates concerning whether the Biden Administration will continue with the effort.  The Obama-Biden Administration slashed the manned space program, prompting Rep. Steven Palazzo (R-Mississippi)  to note that “It is no secret that this [space] Committee is concerned that the support within NASA for the [Space Launch System] and Orion (a manned spacecraft) is not matched by the [Obama] Administration. While this lack of commitment is somewhat puzzling, it is not at all surprising. The President has made clear that he does not believe space exploration is a priority for the nation and has allowed political appointees within the administration to manipulate the course of our human space flight program. These decisions should be made by the scientists, engineers, and program managers that have decades of experience in human space flight…The Administration has consistently requested large reductions for these programs despite the insistence of Congress that they be priorities.”

The young widow of fallen police office Rivera did more to combat crime than all of the leftist district attorneys, politicians, and pundits combined.

The grieving but valiant young lady called on the Manhattan District Attorney to do what must be done to combat the pandemic of crime that he, and those who believe in his soft on crime approach, have caused.  In doing so, she said what the biased media, and leftist elected officials have failed to say.

Here’s the reality: “Bail reform,” “Defunding the Police,” “De-incarceration” and other actions are responsible for the scourge of significantly increased crime in our cities, and the murder of police officers. Estimates place the spike in homicides and violent crime at 40-60% as soft on crime policies have been emplaced. They are ludicrous concepts that should never have been attempted in the first place.

For several years, the Left has justified riots and crimes committed by violent mobs using the pretense that police were engaged in assaulting innocents. They produced an environment in which defunding cops and releasing convicts became politically acceptable. That doesn’t prevent progressive politicians from then shamelessly showing up at the funerals of murdered law enforcement personnel and civilians and hypocritically expressing shock and sorrow, then pompously offering “solutions” which don’t address their own culpability for the problem.

Rather than reverse soft on crime moves and return to policies that have actually worked, leftists continue to blame inanimate objects and seek to instill even more intense gun control measures. The concept ignores the reality that a criminal intent on committing a murder, rape, or robbery will not give a damn about breaking the law and acquiring a weapon.  And if you think that somehow Washington can prevent the manufacture or importation of guns, you have probably never heard of the drug problem.

Blaming inanimate objects, like guns, for the crime wave caused by soft-on-crime policies ignores the reality that, as noted by the Heritage Institute,   “America’s decades-long decrease in crime occurred while gun ownership remained high and even climbed. If it really was guns to blame, why did the surge suddenly happen in 2020, and in cities with strict gun control?… “defund the police” wasn’t just a slogan. And it wasn’t just “bad messaging,” as some Democrat political consultants have pointed out. Instead, it became an idea taken seriously by state and local governments that pursued a course that undermined law and order and created a nationwide epidemic of criminality that may not soon abate.”

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These disgraceful policies by progressive politicians and DAs, many elected to office with the vast financial assistance of leftist billionaires, have wreaked havoc in the streets of our nation.

Anti-police rhetoric has been harsh. Last year, to cite just one example, Rep. Cori Bush (D-Missouri) called for the defunding of the police, despite spending $700,000 on her personal security. Harlem Councilwoman, Democrat-Socialist Kristin Richardson Jordan, actually extended her sympathies to the family of the perpetrator who killed Officer (posthumously promoted to Detective First Class) Rivera. The Councilwoman wants to abolish policing.

In 2020, as reported in The Hill,  “Michael McHale, the president of the National Association of Police Organizations, decried what he described as a rash of violence against police officers in recent months and railed against ‘failed’ elected officials in cities such as Minneapolis, New York and Chicago who he said had made ‘the conscious decision not to support law enforcement.’”

Research by Canada’s Fraser Institute finds that “Any real solution to criminal violence is likely to be complex and expensive, so the government is attracted to waging a symbolic campaign to win votes. Since it is currently fashionable to equate firearms with violence, and there is an emotional crusade against firearms, the government sees a political opportunity. Gun control promises an easy victory…[but] Gun control is not crime control…gun control proposals will not reduce violent crime..”

A key reason soft on crime policies do not work has to do with recidivism. Essentially, police are forced to re-arrest the same criminals over and over again because soft policies keep releasing them. The Bureau of Justice Statistics, has found that Seven in 10 incarcerated people released in 34 states were rearrested within five years, based on a study for prisoners in 34 states between 2012 and 2017.

BELARUS

With more than 1,000 political prisoners currently jailed in Belarus for peacefully exercising their rights to freedom of expression and assembly in response to a fraudulent election and the Lukashenka regime’s abuses, the United States has over the last 18 months imposed five rounds of sanctions on the country. There has not been any movement on the issue. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken this week again, amid the crisis in Ukraine, called on Belarus for the “immediate and unconditional release of all political prisoners, recognizing it as a necessary step for Belarus to emerge from its political crisis.” The US appears impotent to stop Putin and even the Lukashenko regime. Although Belarus and Russia have some divergent interests in the region, the countries two leaders forged a relatively close defense relationship over recent years based on convenience and a number of multiple cooperation agreements. Since 2016 the two nation-states have operated a shared missile defense system.

Eight weeks ago President Lukashenko offered to host Russian nuclear missiles on its territory and simultaneously recognized the Russian annexation of Crimea as legitimate. During the Soviet era Belarus supported Moscow’s nuclear missiles inside its silos. Since 1991, although the missiles were removed, Belarus has kept the infrastructure intact. Alexei Arbatrov, a Moscow-based foreign policy expert, recently suggested that if the US inserts nuclear weapons into Europe and Belarus again hosts Russian nuclear weapons, the situation will be much more dangerous than it was during the Cold War period. Belarusian political analyst Valery Karbalevich said “Lukashenko effectively pays Putin for the support that the Kremlin has offered to him.” Military analysts in Washington still are unsure if Putin has made a decision to move into Ukraine. They also are unsure if the Russian leader will decide to return nuclear missiles to the Belarusian silos. If that occurs, it will change the power equation in Europe.

WATER WARS AND MISMANAGEMENT

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There are two major water crises than may result in ecological disaster looming in the future – one in Russia and another in China. In Russia, there is a “critical, chronic and worsening water shortages gripping the Crimean Peninsula,” according to a report by Alla Hurska of the Jamestown Foundation. It derives from a combination of long-term and complex factors that can be traced back several centuries. Despite the changing technological capabilities and shifting political ideologies of the successive regimes that have wielded control over the area, local water-related problems have persisted. “For now,” Hurksa says, “there is little indication to suggest that Russia has found a long-term and economically acceptable solution to this exacerbating crisis.” Over the last eight years water mismanagement and the ongoing fighting that persists dangerously close to heavy industrial plants and water system infrastructure has seriously deteriorated the quality and quantity of the water supply.  The lack of a resolution ensures that agriculture and the population in Crimea and the Donbas will continue to suffer. 

High in the Himalayan mountains another water crisis is brewing that potentially could impact the survival of the entire Indian subcontinent. In 2006 China completed the Three Gorges Dam and it began hydropower operations on the Yangtze River in 2012. To date, it remains the world’s largest hydropower dam. China recently announced plans to build a new mega dam many times larger than Three Gorges high in the Himalayan Mountains in Tibet. Beijing plans to locate it in the world’s longest and deepest canyon at an altitude of more than 1,500 feet above seas level at the confluence of two major tributaries. China has built over 1,200 dams on its major river systems. Ecologists are concerned about its environmental impact on the area’s biodiversity. The region also is prone to earthquakes. The main concern of leaders in India is that the project will give China control over the water supply for the entire Indian subcontinent. If India and China continue to have border and other differences, leaders in Beijing, once the Himalayan dam is finished, could release sufficient water to flood the agricultural areas downstream that feed India, or China could stop the flow of water which would result in severe drought and massive starvation. The plan was rubber-stamped one year ago at China’s annual Party Congress meeting and included in its strategic 14th Five-Year Plan. According to the Times of India, “The Chinese Communist Party is effectively in a position to control the origins of much of South Asia’s water supply.” Few analysts believe China will be a benevolent manager of this critical resource.

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Department.

Across the United States, progressive district attorneys have caused havoc with concepts such as bail reform, decriminalization, and limiting incarceration.

Inevitably, these irrational policies have led to dramatic increases in crime, that not even the most biased media can hide.   Not surprisingly, these individuals, elected with vast funding provided by radical billionaires determined to sow chaos, deny their culpability for the harm they have caused.

Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg has attempted to convince the public that his extreme leftist approach has been misinterpreted.  We’ll let you be the judge. Below are the key excerpts from the “DAY ONE” policy changes Bragg issued.  Where references are made to changing offenses from one measure to another, Bragg consistently downgrades a higher charged offense to a lower one.

DISTRICT ATTORNEY 

COUNTY OF NEW YORK

ONE HOGAN PLACE

New York, N. Y. 10013 

(212) 335-9000

ALVIN L. BRAGG, JR. 

DISTRICT ATTORNEY

January 3, 2022

To: All Staff

From: Alvin L. Bragg, Jr.

Re: Achieving Fairness and Safety

The following policies and procedures are effective immediately.  

A. CHARGING  

1. The Office will not prosecute the following charges, unless as part of an accusatory  instrument containing at least one felony count:  

a) Marijuana misdemeanors, PL §§ 222.30 and 222.50.  

b) The act of refusing to pay the fare for public transportation under Theft of Services, PL  §165.15(3).  

c) Trespass, PL §§ 140.05, 140.10, 140.15, unless the trespass is a family offense pursuant  to CPL § 530.11, accompanies any charge of Stalking in the Fourth Degree under PL  § 120.45, or is approved by an ECAB supervisor.  

d) Aggravated Unlicensed Operation, VTL § 511.1. Note that any vehicular collision  resulting in any physical injury should be pursued as an act of reckless driving, reckless  endangerment, negligent or reckless assault, failure to yield, or any other applicable  statute. This policy addresses only criminalization of a failure to pay fines and does not  address the criminalization of dangerous driving. Also, this charge may be prosecuted  as part of any accusatory instrument containing a charge of Vehicle and Traffic Law  1212, 1192, or 511.2.  

e) Any violation, traffic infraction, or other non-criminal offense not accompanied by a  misdemeanor or felony.  

f) Resisting Arrest, PL § 205.30, except for the act of resisting arrest for any crime not  included on this declination list.  

g) Obstructing Governmental Administration in the Second Degree, PL § 195.05, other  than for the act of significantly physically interfering with the lawful arrest of another  person. Significant physical interference includes, at a minimum, the acts of shoving,  tackling, pushing, punching, and other similar acts. Otherwise, this charge must be  approved by an ECAB supervisor.  

h) Prostitution, PL § 230.00. ECAB supervisory approval required to prosecute  Patronizing a Person for Prostitution under PL § 230.04. This does not include any  felonies, or coercive practices regularly performed by those who traffic in the sex trade  or related crimes such as money laundering.  

i) Outdated offenses such as Obscenity, PL Article 235, and Adultery, PL § 255.17.  

2. Misdemeanor charges for which a desk appearance ticket is required by law shall be  offered diversion. Diversion is defined as the opportunity to complete a short but  meaningful programming mandate after arrest through a community-based provider,  based on the needs of the person arrested. Upon completion of the mandate, the Office  will decline to prosecute the case.  

a) Consistent with past policies, those arrested and offered diversion will be permitted to  consult with an attorney regarding their options.  

b) If the person accepts the diversion, the Office will work to ensure they do not need to  appear in court, including if their diversion mandate is not complete before their  scheduled appearance.  

3. Cases for which a desk appearance ticket is issued but not required by law to be issued  will be offered the diversion option defined herein, unless: a) the allegations include any  sex offenses, assault, menacing, any allegation of harm or the threat of harm to another  person, or offenses requiring an order of protection during the pendency of the case; or  b) based on a holistic analysis of the case, diversion would be inconsistent with public  safety goals.  

4. The Office will continue to screen desk appearance ticket cases to ensure that diversion  is not presumptively offered in rare but important instances of great public concern where  such tickets are required by law, such as cases involving white collar theft, the death of  another person by an act of driving, and other cases for which non-carceral sentences  would not be presumed as per the policies on carceral dispositions described infra.  

5. ADAs should use their judgment and experience to evaluate the person arrested, and  identify people: who suffer from mental illness; who are unhoused; who commit crimes  of poverty; or who suffer from substance use disorders. Immediately identify such cases  to an ECAB supervisor. Charges should be brought consistent with the goal of providing  services to such individuals, and leverage during plea negotiations should not be a factor  in this decision. 

a) An act that could be charged under PL §§ 160.15 (2, 3, or 4), 160.10(2b), or 160.05  that occurs in a commercial setting should be charged under PL § 155.25 if the force  or threat of force consists of displaying a dangerous instrument or similar behavior but  does not create a genuine risk of physical harm.  

b) The possession of a non-firearm weapon under Penal Law § 265.02(1) shall not be  charged unless as a lesser included offense, and § 265.01 shall be charged instead.  

c) Residential burglaries: An act involving theft of property from a storage area or other  portion of a dwelling that is not accessible to a living area that could be charged under  PL § 140.25(2) should be charged only under PL §140.20 and not under PL §140.30 or  PL §140.25(2).  

d) Commercial burglaries: An act involving theft of property from a commercial  establishment that could be charged under PL § 140.25(2) because such establishment  is technically part of a larger structure that contains dwellings shall only be charged  under § 140.20.  

e) Drug cases: If there is a reasonable view of the evidence indicating that a person  arrested for the sale of a controlled substance is acting as a low-level agent of a seller,  such person shall be charged with 220.03 and no felonies and therefore offered  diversion. Also, unless such charge is a lesser included offense or unless the defendant  actually sold a controlled substance, the offense of Penal Law § 220.06 shall not be  charged and 220.03 shall instead be charged.  

7. Prosecution may be deferred if the discovery available at the time of arraignment is so  sparse, or so potentially voluminous, that the ADA believes it poses a significant risk that  the Office will not meet its discovery requirements in arraigning the case immediately,  provided that doing so poses no public safety risk. Delaying a case while we gather all  the evidence and make sure it is appropriate to file an accusatory instrument will ensure  that we are in full compliance with the letter and spirit of discovery requirements.  

B. PRETRIAL DETENTION  

1. There is a presumption of pre-trial non-incarceration for every case except those with  charges of homicide or the death of a victim, a class B violent felony in which a deadly  weapon or dangerous instrument causes serious physical injury, sex offenses in Article 130  of the Penal Law, domestic violence felonies or charges of PL § 215.50, public corruption,  rackets, or major economic crimes, including any attempt to commit any such offense  under Article 110 of the Penal Law. For any charge of attempt to cause serious physical  injury with a dangerous instrument, ADAs must obtain the approval of an ECAB  supervisor to seek pretrial detention. 

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January 3, 2022  

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a) Exceptions will be granted in extraordinary circumstances, based on a holistic analysis  of the facts presented, criminal history (particularly any recent history of not returning  to court without sufficient cause or explanation), and any other information available.  

b) An ADA may request pretrial detention in such extraordinary circumstances after  submitting the Application for Pretrial Detention form to their ECAB supervisor.  

2. Where release is recommended, the following rules apply:  

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a) The Office will consent to release on recognizance whenever release is  recommended by the CJA risk assessment or if it is the defendant’s first arrest.  Exceptions to this rule apply in the following circumstances: a violent felony  involving serious physical injury, a class A, B, or C violent felony; or where the  defendant lacks a NYC address and does not have a phone to receive court  appearance reminders.  

b) In any other circumstance, the Office will consent to supervised release, or other  support strategies to ensure returning to court.  

3. For cases where there is no presumption of non-incarceration, the Office should carefully  consider all known facts. Special consideration should be given to any request for pre-trial  detention for following individuals who face unique hardships, such as individuals with  health conditions that could suffer serious harm or death if incarcerated.  

4. When requesting bail, ADAs must request a partially or unsecured bond in the same  amount as the cash bail request.  

5. If defense counsel requests, ADAs working in the arraignment parts shall inform defense  counsel prior to their client’s arraignment of the Office’s bail request and any plea offer.  

6. For those individuals whose conditions, particularly their physical and mental health,  change during incarceration, the Pathways to Public Safety Bureau will review and consent  to a change in bail or release conditions if necessary.  

7. If individuals miss court dates, ADAs shall contact defense attorneys to request them to  provide the reason for the violation or failure to appear in court. If the person fails to appear  but there is no evidence that the person intentionally attempted to flee from law  enforcement, such as evading police or giving a police officer an alias, then recommend  release upon the original conditions.  

8. If there is an allegation that an individual has violated a condition of release, ADAs shall  contact the defense attorney to determine whether the violation of the condition is related  to circumstances such as health issues, transportation or child care issues. If there is clear  evidence that the person willfully violated conditions of release, ask for the next-least 

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January 3, 2022  

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restrictive condition to ensure they fulfill the conditions of release. Supervisory approval  is required for any deviation from this policy.  

9. In appropriate cases, the Office will consent to excusing the defendant from having to  attend routine court appearances.  

C. DISPOSITIONS  

1. The Office will not seek a carceral sentence other than for homicide or other cases  involving the death of a victim, a class B violent felony in which a deadly weapon causes  serious physical injury, domestic violence felonies, sex offenses in Article 130 of the Penal  Law, public corruption, rackets, or major economic crimes, including any attempt to  commit any such offense under Article 110 of the Penal Law, unless required by law. For  any charge of attempt to cause serious physical injury with a dangerous instrument, ADAs  must obtain the approval of an ECAB supervisor to seek a carceral sentence.  

a. This rule may be excepted only in extraordinary circumstances based on a holistic  analysis of the facts, criminal history, victim’s input (particularly in cases of  violence or trauma), and any other information available. ADAs shall also consider  the impacts of incarceration on public safety, the impacts of incarceration on  communities, the financial cost of incarceration, the racially disparate use of  incarceration, and the barriers to housing, employment, and education created as a  consequence on a period of incarceration.  

b. An ADA may request incarceration in such extraordinary circumstances after  submitting the Application for Carceral Sentence form to their supervisor at least 3  business days prior to the court date upon which such disposition is sought, and  after such supervisor so approves.  

2. For cases in which there is no presumption of non-incarceration, there is also no  presumption that incarceration is the appropriate outcome. ADAs should consider whether  a carceral sentence is appropriate based a holistic analysis of all known facts.  

3. ADAs shall presumptively indict both top counts and lesser included counts when  presenting cases to the grand jury, permitting a wider range of statutorily permissible plea  bargaining options. This presumption can be overcome with supervisory approval.  

4. When seeking a carceral sentence, the following rules apply, absent exceptional  circumstances:  

a. For a determinate sentence, the Office will request a maximum of 20 years.  

b. For an indeterminate sentence other than one with a maximum of life, the Office  will request no more than a maximum of 20 years, absent exceptional  circumstances. 

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c. For an indeterminate sentence with a maximum of life, the Office will request no  more than a minimum of 20 years, unless required by law.  

d. The Office shall not seek a sentence of life without parole.  

e. In exceptionally serious cases such as homicides where lengthy periods of  incarceration are justified, ADAs shall consider the use of restorative justice as a  mitigating factor in determining the length of the sentence, only when victims or  their loved ones consent.  

5. If a case is determined to be appropriate for a disposition involving services, the Office  will rely on outside professionals to determine the appropriate service and length of  placement, and shall analyze cases involving substance use and mental illness through a  public health lens. The Office shall not require proffers for such services.  

6. Restorative justice programming will be expanded significantly, including for violent  felony cases in which the victim consents.  

7. For any case in which a person violates the terms of a non-carceral sentence or pre-plea  programming mandate, the Office will seek a carceral “alternative” only as a matter of last  resort. The Office will take into account that research shows that relapses are a predictable  part of the road to recovery for those struggling with substance abuse, and the Office will  reserve carceral recommendations for repeated violations of the terms of a mandate.  

D. SPECIAL PROCEDURES FOR CASES INVOLVING JUVENILES AND YOUNG  ADULTS  

1. For adolescent offenders charged with offenses defined in subdivision 1 of CPL §722.23,  the Office shall presumptively not file motions preventing removal to family court unless  the charges are extremely serious and the young person does not demonstrate amenability  to the services available in Family Court. An ADA may overcome this presumption only  after submitting the Application Opposing AO Removal form to their supervisor no later  than 10 days after arraignment, and after such supervisor so approves.  

2. For adolescent offenders charged with offenses defined in subdivision 2 of CPL §722.23,  the Office shall presumptively consent to removal to family court under CPL §  722.23(2)(e) unless the charges are extremely serious and the young person does not  demonstrate amenability to the services available in family court. An ADA may overcome  this presumption only after submitting the Application Opposing AO Removal form to  their supervisor at least 3 days prior to the hearing held pursuant to § 722.23(2)(a), and  after such supervisor so approves.  

3. The Office will consent to the removal of all juvenile offenders to Family Court pursuant  to CPL § 722.22, permitting the court to make its own analysis of the statutory factors, 

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January 3, 2022  

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where required, unless consent is not statutorily justified under paragraph b of subdivision  5 of § 722.22.  

4. For those cases not removed to Family Court, determinations as to the appropriate  disposition will be based on identifying underlying needs and what services and supports  can be provided to the person charged and their caretakers to address those needs ultimately  improving public safety. We will rely on community-based programs already in use in the  Youth Parts as well as adding restorative justice practices to accomplish these goals.  

5. For those cases not removed to Family Court, the Office will consider removals to Family  Court based on continuing behavior while cases are pending in criminal court, and sealing  of charges upon demonstration of rehabilitation.  

6. For those cases involving adults under the age of 25, ADAs should make an individualized  determination of the appropriate outcome for each case recognizing that the same brain  development variables that illuminate our views on juveniles should play a role in our  determinations of young adult cases. Some offenses committed by persons in this age range  are attributable to lack of impulse control, peer pressure, and the lack of insight and  appreciation of consequences that comes with age. Therefore, ADAs prosecuting those  under the age of 25 should consider dispositions aimed at rehabilitation, including reducing  charges, offering deferred prosecution, or offer pleas that permit a person to avoid a  criminal record, depending on the circumstances of each case including the input of  victims.  

E. SPECIAL PROCEDURES FOR CASES INVOLVING NONCITIZENS  

The Office will seek dispositions that avoid immigration consequences for all misdemeanors, and  all felonies for which non-carceral outcomes are the presumptive outcome. The procedures for  seeking a disposition that carries immigration consequences in any such case are the same as the  procedures for seeking a carceral disposition for cases in which non-incarceration is the  presumption.  

 Photo: Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg

China is not only threatening Taiwan.  Its maritime aggression extends to almost all nations in the Indo-Pacific. The U.S. State Department has issued the following study in response.

The United States Department of State Bureau of Oceans and International Environmental and Scientific Affairs Limits in the Seas No. 150 People’s Republic of China: Maritime Claims in the South China Sea

January 2022 Office of Ocean and Polar Affairs Bureau of Oceans and International Environmental and Scientific Affairs U.S. Department of State

This study examines the maritime claims of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in the South China Sea. The PRC’s expansive maritime claims in the South China Sea are inconsistent with international law as reflected in the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (“Convention”).

The PRC asserts four categories of maritime claims in the South China Sea:

.Sovereignty claims over maritime features. The PRC claims “sovereignty” over more than one hundred features in the South China Sea that are submerged below the sea surface at high tide and are beyond the lawful limits of any State’s territorial sea. Such claims are inconsistent with international law, under which such features are not subject to a lawful sovereignty claim or capable of generating maritime zones such as a territorial sea.

• Straight baselines. The PRC has either drawn, or asserts the right to draw, “straight baselines” that enclose the islands, waters, and submerged features within vast areas of ocean space in the South China Sea. None of the four “island groups” claimed by the PRC in the South China Sea (“Dongsha Qundao,” “Xisha Qundao,” “Zhongsha Qundao,” and “Nansha Qundao”) meet the geographic criteria for using straight baselines under the Convention. Additionally, there is no separate body of customary international law that supports the PRC position that it may enclose entire island groups within straight baselines.

• Maritime zones. The PRC asserts claims to internal waters, a territorial sea, an exclusive economic zone, and a continental shelf that are based on treating each claimed South China Sea island group “as a whole.” This is not permitted by international law. The seaward extent of maritime zones must be measured from lawfully established baselines, which are normally the low-water line along the coast. Within its claimed maritime zones, the PRC also makes numerous jurisdictional claims that are inconsistent with international law.

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• Historic rights. The PRC asserts that it has “historic rights” in the South China Sea. This claim has no legal basis and is asserted by the PRC.

The overall effect of these maritime claims is that the PRC unlawfully claims sovereignty or some form of exclusive jurisdiction over most of the South China Sea. These claims gravely undermine the rule of law in the oceans and numerous universally-recognized provisions of international law reflected in the Convention. For this reason, the United States and numerous other States have rejected these claims in favor of the rules-based international maritime order within the South China Sea and worldwide.

the PRC has advanced a new articulation of its maritime claims in the South China Sea. These expansive maritime claims are plainly inconsistent with international law as reflected in the Convention.

First, the PRC’s claims to sovereignty over maritime features that do not meet the international law definition of an “island” and fall entirely beyond a lawful territorial sea are inconsistent with international law and not recognized by the United States and other States. This includes any claim to sovereignty over entirely submerged features like James Shoal, Vanguard Bank, and Macclesfield Bank. It also includes any claim to sovereignty over low-tide elevations, such as Mischief Reef and Second Thomas Shoal, which fall entirely beyond a lawful territorial sea entitlement and which are not subject to appropriation under international law.

Second, the PRC’s baselines enclosing Xisha Qundao (Paracel Islands) and its asserted intention to establish baselines around other “island groups” in the South China Sea are also inconsistent with international law. None of the four islands or island groups that the PRC considers to comprise “Nanhai Zhudao” meet the geographic criteria for straight baselines reflected in Article 7 of the Convention. Notwithstanding the Convention’s comprehensive regulation of baselines, the PRC also attempts to argue that there is a separate body of customary international law, outside of the Convention, that justifies its straight baseline claims in the South China Sea. This PRC position, which is examined in the State Practice Supplement to this study, has no merit. The evidence compiled in the Supplement demonstrates conclusively that the requirements for the formation of customary international law relating to outlying island groups have not been met and, therefore, there are no customary international law rules that provide an alternative legal basis for continental States, such as China, to claim straight baselines around outlying island groups.

Third, the PRC’s claim to maritime zones “based on Nanhai Zhudao” is similarly inconsistent with international law. Any assertion of internal waters, territorial sea, exclusive economic zone, or continental shelf based on treating South China Sea island groups “as a whole” is not permitted by international law. Within its claimed maritime zones in the South China Sea, the PRC also makes numerous jurisdictional claims that are inconsistent with international law. These include the PRC’s requirement of prior permission for warships exercising innocent passage in the territorial sea; its asserted authority to prevent and punish violations of its “security” laws in the contiguous zone; and its restrictions on military activities in the EEZ.

The PRC’s claim to “historic rights in the South China Sea” is plainly inconsistent with international law to the extent it exceeds the PRC’s possible maritime entitlements provided for in the international law of the sea, as reflected in the Convention. The PRC’s historic rights claim has been protested by the United States and many other States and was rejected by the tribunal in The South China Sea Arbitration. The overall effect of these maritime claims is that the PRC unlawfully claims sovereignty or some form of exclusive jurisdiction over most of the South China Sea. These claims, especially considering their expansive geographic and substantive scope, gravely undermine the rule of law in the oceans and numerous universally recognized provisions of international law reflected in the Convention.

Photo: The guided-missile destroyer Harbin (Hull 112) attached to a naval vessel training center under the PLA Northern Theater Command fires its main gun against mock sea targets during a maritime training assessment in late December, 2021. (eng.chinamil.com.cn/Photo by Zou Xiangmin)