Author: Daria Novak

Despite broad-based speculation about the deteriorating health of Russian President Vladimir Putin, he remains in command of the war in Ukraine and now may be harboring grander geopolitical ambitions beyond Ukrainian territory. Recent reports coming out of Central Asia this week point to increased Russian interference in Kazakhstan that could be indicative of a future Russian “special military action” in the country. Over the last three decades Kazakh leaders have heard Russian threats repeated regularly about Moscow’s designs on Kazakhstan. Only six months after Russia annexed Crimean, Putin boldly proclaimed that Kazakhstan never was a country and that “Kazakhs never had any statehood….” Just over a month ago, Communist Party member Sergei Savostyanov, a deputy in the Moscow City Duma (Council), in a written statement supporting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, added Kazakhstan to the list of locations where Russia should take similar action to that in Ukraine. The other states included the Baltics, Moldova, and Poland. 

Moscow has long labeled Kazakhstan’s Guryev Province (now called Atyrau) and Tselinograd Province (now called Akmola) “ancient Russian territories,” although Russians make up only 35% of its population. “Throughout the 1990’s, there were Russian and Cossack groups in Kazakhstan who called for areas in northern Kazakhstan to join Russia,” according to Pannier. Ethnic Kazakhs make up more than 63% of the population today. Gennady Zyuganov, head of the Russian Communist Party, said that northern Kazakhstan was historically Russian territory and that Putin needed to “protect the Russian-speaking population against the “national arbitrariness that is happening in Kazakhstan.” Zyuganov also suggested that Putin should take control of its Baikonur Cosmodrome, located in Kazakhstan, along with the country’s uranium mining industry. Today, Kazakhstan is the world’s leading producer and exporter of uranium.

On December 10, 2020, Vyacheslav Nikonov, a Russian Duma deputy and head of its Education and Science Committee, in December 2020 said on a Russian television that when the Soviet Union formed in 1917, “Kazakhstan simply did not exist as a country, its northern territories were basically uninhabited,” according to Pannier. Three days later, he adds, Duma deputy Yevgeny Fedorov announced that the Belavezha Accords that dissolved the Soviet Union were illegal and Kazakhstan was effectively “easing” Russian land. The worries about Russian designs on Kazakhstan appear to be increasing, according to Pannier. At the end of March, Kazakh Deputy Prosecutor General Bulat Dembayev blatantly issued a warning to the country’s citizenry to take care in what they posted about the “conflict between the Russian Federation and Ukraine” on social networks. Dembayev pointed out that some Kazakh users of social networks have publicly commented on the ongoing events in Ukraine and posted separatist calls regarding the integrity of the territory of Kazakhstan. He reminded them, “Deliberate actions aimed at inciting ethnic hatred, public calls to violate the integrity of Kazakhstan” and are punishable by up to 10 years in prison. 

A rally opposing the Russian war was cancelled recently when Kazakh officials refused the group a permit to gather. Pannier says Kazakh leaders can try to “downplay the significance of these comments, but it is troubling that Russian officials continue to make them. And even more so since there has been no effort from Putin or any other Russian official to put an end to it.” 

Malcolm Davis, writing in Clear Defense this week, notes that if Putin does not go nuclear “It’s also possible that Russia could decide to escalate at a conventional level by extending its attacks beyond Ukraine.” He points out that Russia is already making implied threats of extending the war to the disputed Transnistria region of Moldova. That would dramatically increase the threat to Romania, a NATO member, and destabilize the Moldovan state, many of whose residents are ethnically Romanian. Kazakhstan might not be that far behind. 

Last month Kazakhstan’s deputy foreign minister, Roman Vassilenko,  said the country would welcome companies leaving Russia that wanted to relocate there and that his country would not want to be on the wrong side of a new “iron curtain.” Recently, Kazakhstan officials have refrained from criticizing Russian military actions in Ukraine although Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev is reported in Al Jazeera had earlier this year stated that that all countries must strictly adhere to the norms and principles of the United Nations charter.

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Department

The Contract with America was a legislative agenda advocated by the Republican Party during the 1994 congressional election campaign, during the Clinton Administration.  It proved successful both with the voters and in practice.

As the U.S. reels from Washington’s increasing power and extensively poor decision making, the concept of a new version of the Contract is becoming popular again. Expect many Republican candidates to produce their own updated takes on the idea.

Richard Scott (R), the junior United States senator from Florida, has released his approach:

Our kids will say the pledge of allegiance, salute the Flag, learn that America is a great country, and choose the school that best fits them. We will inspire patriotism and stop teaching the revisionist history of the radical left; our kids will learn about the wisdom of the US Constitution, the Bill of Rights, and the founding fathers. Public schools will focus on the 3 R’s, not indoctrinate children with critical race theory or any other political ideology.

Government will never again ask American citizens to disclose their race, ethnicity, or skin color on any government form. We are going to eliminate racial politics in America. No government policy will be based on race. People “will not be judged by the color of their skin but by the content of their character.” We are all made in the image of God; to judge a person on the color of their epidermis is immoral.

The soft-on-crime days of coddling criminal behavior will end. We will re-fund and respect the police because, they, not the criminals, are the good guys. We will enforce our laws, all of them, and increase penalties for theft and violent crime. We will clean up our cities and stop pretending that crime is OK. We have zero tolerance for “mostly peaceful protests” that attack police officers, loot businesses, and burn down our cities.

We will secure our border, finish building the wall, and name it after President Donald Trump.

Nations have borders. We should give that a try. President Trump’s plan to build a wall was right. We welcome those who want to join us in building the American dream, immigrants who want to be Americans, not change America. We are a stronger nation because we are a nation of immigrants, but immigration without assimilation makes us weaker. Politicians from both parties talk big about border security and do nothing. We are done with that.

We will grow America’s economy, starve Washington’s economy, and stop Socialism. Socialism is un-American and always leads to poverty and oppression. We will stop it. We will shrink the federal government, reduce the government workforce by 25% in 5 years, sell government buildings and assets, and get rid of the old, slow, closed, top-down, government-run-everything system we have today.

We will eliminate all federal programs that can be done locally, and enact term limits for federal bureaucrats and Congress.

Many government agencies should be either moved out of Washington or shuttered entirely. Yesterday’s old government is fundamentally incompatible with the digital era. The permanent ruling class in Washington is bankrupting us with inflation and debt, so they must be removed. For you to have more, Washington must have less.

We will protect the integrity of American Democracy and stop left-wing efforts to rig elections. Today’s Democrat Party is trying to rig elections and pack the courts because they have given up on Democracy. They don’t believe they can win based on their ideas, so they want to game the system and legalize voter fraud to stay in power. In true Orwellian fashion, Democrats refer to their election rigging plans as “voting rights”. We won’t allow the radical left to destroy our democracy by institutionalizing dishonesty and fraud.

We will protect, defend, and promote the American Family at all costs. The nuclear family is crucial to civilization, it is God’s design for humanity, and it must be protected and celebrated. To say otherwise is to deny science. The fanatical left seeks to devalue and redefine the traditional family, as they undermine parents and attempt to replace them with government programs. We will not allow Socialism to place the needs of the state ahead of the family.

Men are men, women are women, and unborn babies are babies. We believe in science: Men and women are biologically different, “male and female He created them.” Modern technology has confirmed that abortion takes a human life. Facts are facts, the earth is round, the sun is hot, there are two genders, and abortion stops a beating heart. To say otherwise is to deny science.

Americans will be free to welcome God into all aspects of our lives, and we will stop all government efforts to deny our religious freedom and freedom of speech. The Democrat Party and their Big Tech allies are not merely secular; they have virtually created a new religion of wokeness that is increasingly hostile toward people of faith, particularly Christians and Jews. They are determined to drive all mention of God out of public view. We will not be silenced, canceled, or told what words to use by the politically correct crowd.

We are Americans, not globalists.  America will be dependent on NO other country. We will conduct no trade that takes away jobs or displaces American workers. Countries who oppose us at the UN will get zero financial help from us. We will be energy-independent and build supply chains that never rely on our adversaries. We will only help countries that are willing to defend themselves, like Israel.

Despite rising and imminent threats from Russia and China, the Biden Administration is pursing a unilateral course of limiting America’s deterrent.

Recently, the U.S. Department of Defense cancelled a test of an advanced missile, out of  concern that it would “provoke Russia.” In response, Moscow test-launched one of its advanced Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missiles, also known as “Satan 2.” The Russian defense ministry reported that the long-range missile test began in western Russia, north of Moscow, and landed on the Kamchatka Peninsula in the country’s far east. It has unprecedented power.

The White House has also announced that it would no longer test America’s Anti-satellite  (ASAT) weaponry.  Neither China nor Russia has followed suite.

The move is consistent with the President’s other ill-advised defense moves.

While China has dramatically increased the size of its navy, and continues to build more warships, the Biden defense budget proposal would reduce the size of America’s navy. U.S. Representatives Mike Rogers (R-AL), Ranking Member of the House Armed Services Committee, and Rob Wittman (R-VA), Ranking Member of the Subcommittee on Sea Power and Projection Forces noted that “China is the pacing threat – this is something we’ve consistently heard from our military Commanders. However, it seems that President Biden has chosen to once again ignore his military advisors to the detriment of our Navy and Marine Corps’ readiness. The Biden administration’s 30 year shipbuilding plan reduces our ability to protect our aircraft carrier strike groups, reduces Navy’s ability to eliminate an enemy’s minefield, reduces the Marine Corps ability to conduct forcible entry missions and reduces almost 10% of our fleet’s ability to launch missiles. Most disconcerting is that the administration may have known the depths of these reductions and decided to not provide Congress with this information, hiding it with a one year shipbuilding plan presented to Congress last year. It takes years to build a ship and we no longer have the industrial strength we had during WWII to nearly instantaneously produce thousands of ships in times of conflict. Reducing our naval power to save a couple of dollars now puts our warfighters in a dangerous and incurable position when faced with China’s growing naval power.”

It’s more than missiles and ships. As Russia ravages Ukraine and China prepares to conquer Taiwan, the White House seeks to slash the U.S. army.  The Army Times reports that “the Biden administration’s fiscal 2023 budget request would temporarily shrink the active duty Army to 473,000 troops…That could leave the service at its smallest size since 1940, when it had just over 269,000 troops.”

As Russia and China dramatically modernize their strategic nuclear weaponry and China engages in a rapid increase in the size of its force, America’s atomic deterrent dissolves into obsolescence.  The Biden Administration has slow-walked a review that would outline the challenge and respond to the deadly threats now faced.  Indeed, it continues to push for an Iranian nuclear deal that would only add to that threat.

Members of Congress have desperately complained.  Rep. Scott DesJarlais (R-TN) worries that “For the second year in a row, the White House’s proposed defense budget fails to keep up with soaring inflation levels. …[and] weakens our national defense by reducing the size of our Army, Navy and Marine Corps, cutting funding for new nuclear deterrent capabilities, and reducing our ships and aircrafts. This signals to our adversaries and allies that our country is weak and unwilling to defend itself or protect our allies.”

This is not the usual Washington wrangling over marginal changes in a portion of the federal budget.  Indeed, an entire weapons system, the sea launched cruise missile has been entirely eliminated. Ignoring the reality of an exceptional increase in the threat level combined with the devastating effect of inflation on American defense programs, it is an unprecedented and reckless assault on the security of the nation.

Photo: China’s DF-41 nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missiles

A recent House of Representatives vote, held in November, on a resolution (Res 760) expressing solidarity with the long-oppressed people of Cuban in their quest for basic rights appeared to be the type of feel-good gesture that would pass unanimously. There were no monetary or other strings attached to it. It was a symbolic gesture issued largely in response to a Human Rights Watch report issued over the summer.

Instead, 40 Democrats voted against it. Representatives such as Jerry Nadler, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Illian Omar, Ayanna Pressley, Rashida Tlaib, and Maxine Waters, and the rest of the progressive caucus refused to endorse the measure.

Their action was despicable. Whatever differences Americans may have, support for personal freedom should be a unifying factor.  Despite that, we should be grateful for how they voted.  Any vague misconception that the leftist Democrats who populate the progressive movement and who clearly dominate the leadership of their party, are anything but would-be authoritarian despots can now be totally dispelled.

The true nature of the Progressive Movement is becoming more evident by the hour.

 In New York, Black Lives Matter Co-Founder Hawk Newsome has threatened the newly elected mayor of New York City, Eric Adams, with “Riots and Bloodshed” if he merely sought to enforce criminal laws. Eric Adams, by the way, is a black man.

That authoritarian impulse thoroughly infects the Democratic Party leadership. The entire concept of a nation governed by laws is under attack.  Rep. Maxine Waters has urged protestors to be more “confrontational.”  The left, and their media allies, looked the other way as their storm troopers invaded police stations, attempted to burn federal court houses, set up an “autonomous zone,” burned buildings, looted stores, and attacked passers-by. Senator Schumer introduced a measure to limit the protection of the First Amendment in certain areas. Barack Obama and Joe Biden have used the IRS and the Department of Justice to intimidate those individuals and organizations that peacefully and legally disagree with their policies.

Progressive-dominated media outlets have used every dictatorial strategy to suppress contrary voices. Conservative views are frequently censored on social media sites.  Leftist- influenced search engine results omit or relegate moderate to conservative views to obscure back pages.

When parents, during the Covid era, discovered that progressive propaganda was being force-fed to students, they began to dissent. The response by the Biden Administration was rapid. A move was made to call concerned parents “domestic terrorists” and unleash the FBI on them.  The leftist strangle-hold on the educational establishment was not to be tolerated.

Megan McArdle, writing in the Atlantic, quotes Dr. Jonathon Haidt, an academic who called himself a longtime liberal turned centrist. “…when we find out that conservatives are underrepresented among us by a factor of more than 100, suddenly everyone finds it quite easy to generate alternate explanations.”

Leftist Democrats utter disregard for the truth and their all-out warfare on any who dares to differ could be seen in the 2016 presidential election. As has now been irrefutably verified by the Durham investigation, a wholly false charge of Russian Collusion was invented against the GOP candidate.  Even after that lie had become evident beyond any shadow of a doubt, Pelosi’s House Intelligence Committee continued to push the story, aided by her media allies.

It was a tactic advocated and perfected by Nazi propaganda chief Joseph Goebbels, who famously said “If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State.”

Photo: Wikipedia

What do submarines, volleyballs, and North Korean nuclear missiles have in common? Personnel are back on the job at the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Facility, according to Joseph S. Bermudez Jr., Victor Cha, and Jennifer Jun of the Center for Strategic and International Security (CSIS). They can be seen in satellite imagery playing volleyball outside their labs and the administration building last Tuesday as they did in 2017 when the nuclear program was active. The test site is located in the mountains 2 miles west of the Hwasong Concentration Camp in the northeastern part of the country. The Punggye-ri facility has served as a test site since 2006 when North Korea detonated its first nuclear bomb. 

Western analysts now expect North Korea may conduct a seventh nuclear test as early as next month. The decision will be up to President Kim Jong-un. Current satellite imagery indicates that preparations are well underway [for a nuclear test] and should not be discounted as insignificant activity,” according to an April CSIS report.  It suggests the North’s nuclear program is again very active after five quiet years. There are signs of construction of new buildings, the movement of lumber, and additional equipment and supplies being stored outside the new entrance to Tunnel No. 3 and nearby areas.

Since President Biden assumed office, the North Korean regime also has ramped up other areas of research, including 13 ballistic missile tests. Kim has the goal of achieving a “credible, survivable nuclear weapons delivery system that can target the US homeland,” according to Victor Cha  and Fraser Katz, writing in a CSIS commentary on Friday. In January Kim Jong-un delivered remarks to the Eighth Party Congress of the Workers’ Party of Korea in which he openly mentioned in detail that he intends to perfect the guidance technology for a multi-warhead rocket. Kim also stated at the time that the regime was working to attain an advanced capability for making a preemptive and retaliatory nuclear strike by further raising the rate of precision to “pinpoint accuracy.” Kim announced at the Congress that North Korea also is developing  “solid-fuel engine-propelled intercontinental underwater and ground ballistic rockets.” 

Earlier this week during a military parade in Pyongyang, Kim spoke about the increase in strength of the country’s nuclear forces both in terms of quality and scale.  Cha and Katz point out that the tenor of the speech this week may be an indication of a shift in the North’s nuclear doctrine, as Kim noted that “our nukes can never be confined to the single mission of war deterrent” and they may be used in an “unexpected second mission” if outsiders violate the North’s “fundamental interests.” There has been little pushback or condemnation of the North as countries in the Western democratic world are concentrating on ongoing kinetic warfare in Ukraine.  It also is possible that Kim Jong-un primarily is using the nuclear program to boost his support at home. Advances in the country’s technology have eliminated the need for foreign assistance. New developments could give him a public victory with only the threat of a launch.

Satellite imagery from North Korea’s Sinpo South Shipyard also is showing signs of unusual activity as well. This is the location of the 8.24 Yongung (August 24th Hero) experimental ballistic missile submarine (SSBA). Currently it is within the secure boat basin under a submersible missile test stand with a small harbor tug tied up alongside. Analysts suspect that the 8.24 Yongung submarine plays a critical role in the under-way development of SLBMs, ballistic missile submarine technology, and operational procedures.  While moving the SSBA around the shipyard could be part of a strategic deception campaign, CSIS suggests it is more likely due to modification and repair work. 

Although the submarine- launch ballistic missile program is not as far along as the country’s ground-launched, multiple reentry vehicle missile research, it could provide North Korea a second leg in a nuclear triad. The final leg, an air-launched nuclear cruise missile, is not close to the capability required for actual use, according to Cha and Katz. They conclude that Kim is just “one launcher shy of being able to saturate the existing US national missile defense system” based on recent US disclosures by technical experts. Kim is picking up the tempo. If the nuclear program develops effective countermeasures, it could further complicate the picture for Washington. Kim has rebuffed the Biden Administration’s offer to meet without preconditions. No one is sure what comes next after the volleyball game ends.

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Department

Although dramatic and intense events are unfolding by the hour in the Russian war in Ukraine, the US cannot afford to take its eyes off of the other bad boy in the international community. China continues to push up the global threat level from its intensifying military collaboration with Iran to its aggressive efforts in the Solomon Islands in the southwestern Pacific Ocean. 

Earlier this week Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe visited the Iranian capital for discussions with Iranian Armed Forces Chief of Staff Maj. Gen. Mohammad Bagheri concerning expanding the ties between the two countries’ militaries.  “In today’s meeting with the Chinese Minister of Defense, it was agreed to develop bilateral cooperation in the field of holding exercises, exchange of experiences, training issues and other common fields between the armed forces of the two countries so that we can provide better security for the regions under our control,” Bagheri said. China joined Iran and Russia in joint naval exercises in 2019 and again earlier this year just prior to the start of the war in Ukraine. But China is not only actively pursuing its military relationships in the Middle East/Persia, it also is continuing to push the boundaries of its influence in the Indo-Pacific region.

Last week China signed a formal security cooperation agreement with the Solomon Islands. If China gets a toehold there, it could lead to military ship visits, a naval base, and further militarization of the Indo-Pacific region. A version of the document leaked last month indicates that China intends “help maintain order,” according to John Ruwitch of NPR. This could include sending in Chinese soldiers, conducting military training, and naval ship visits. The Solomon Islands are slightly over 2,000 miles from Australia. The leaked draft of the bilateral cooperation document raises serious concerns for Australian officials who believe a Chinese military base would allow Beijing to project power further into the Pacific and pose a potential threat to Australian national security interests. 

China is a strategic, patient, long-term planner that has been active behind-the-scenes for several years in the Solomon Islands. Beijing first provided the country economic assistance. It then turned that aid into a diplomatic cache followed by the signing of the security agreement in April. China has repeated this pattern in many countries where it seeks to constrain the United States’ influence or to improve Beijing’s image or military position. The geopolitical location of the Islands places it squarely between the US and its allies in the area and near key commercial shipping lanes. Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare, who is up for re-election, is a strong supporter improving relations with China.  The Biden Administration in Washington reacted to the situation this week when Daniel Kritenbrink, US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, said on Monday: “We have respect for the Solomon Islands’ sovereignty, but we also wanted to let them know that if steps were taken [by China] to establish a de facto permanent military presence, power projection capabilities or a military installation, then we would have significant concerns and we would very naturally respond to those concerns.” Typical of the Biden Administration’s foreign policy, the announcement to reporters contained no details on how Washington would change the direction of the Solomon’s away from the Chinese security orbit. Kurt Campbell, the National Security Council’s Indo-Pacific coordinator, and Kritenbrink traveled to the Honiara last week in reaction to the announced agreement and to attempt to reverse the impression that the United States is in retreat across the Indo-Pacific at a time when security concerns in the area are swelling due to Chinese belligerence. Michael Ausin of the Hoover Institution points out in Politico that is going to be difficult for the US to make up for years of neglect. The Clinton Administration closed the US Embassy in in the Solomon Islands in 1993. Auslin suggests giving Sogavare whatever he wants to block China’s advances. To date, Sogavare has refused to release details of the security cooperation document to officials in Washington. China is a strategic player and likely timed the signing when it knew Washington was busy responding to the kinetic conflict in Europe. If the Solomon’s Prime Minister is playing “the China card” with the Biden Administration, it is a dangerous game with long-term consequences for the region.

Photo: Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi (R) meets with visiting Chinese State Councilor and Defense Minister General Wei Fenghe in Tehran, capital of Iran, on April 27, 2022. (mod.gov.cn/Photo by Li Xiaowei)

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Department, specializing in China

The time is approaching when Western democratic leaders may need to initiate a discussion of what an acceptable “new Russia” will look like in the coming years. Those versed in the geopolitical history of the Russian empire will recognize a picture that is emerging this week in the zones of conflict inside Ukraine. Vladimir Putin’s “special military operation” is  active in areas of the country that, if successfully added to the modern Russian Federation, will resemble the territorial boundaries of the Russian Empire. President Vladimir Putin is proving himself to be a modern-day Czar whose stated war aims include threats of nuclear confrontation if anyone opposes his territorial ambitions. The term “new Russia” was used when the Donbas region and the territory along the Azov and Black Seas were part of the Empire. The Russian president has long spoken of revitalizing the glory of the Empire. Recent statements by Putin and other high-ranked government officials in Moscow this week appear to indicate that the Russian president is willing to secure his vision with the use of nuclear weapons. 

Despite the massive failure of Russian forces to take Kyiv and northern Ukraine, soldiers are regrouping for new offensives in the south and eastern portions of Ukraine. These regions are Russian speaking areas that were conquered by the Empire in the late 18th century. Three hundred years ago Russia recognized the value of holding land along the Black Sea. “During the reign of Catherine the Great, Russian settlers colonized the area, and new cities were founded to cement Russian rule there. Several of those towns, such as Mariupol and Kherson, have seen brutal fighting during Russia’s most recent invasion. The Donbass… became a major industrial center for the Russian Empire and beyond,” according to Hayden Daniel writing in The Daily Caller. 

If Putin has determined he cannot conquer all of Ukraine, he could revamp his plans and potentially achieve his objective by taking only the area along the Black Sea coast down to the city of Odessa. A revitalized “new Russia” could provide the buffer zone Putin says he is seeking to separate his country from that of NATO Members. What is he willing to do to achieve it? Second, Putin argues that he wants to protect Russian speakers inside Ukrainian territory. About 70% of the population in eastern Ukraine, in the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic, speak Russian. The front lines of the conflict in the south and east are starting to match up with the areas containing a majority who speak Russian as their primary language. 

After the 2014 conflict in Crimea, separatists proclaimed The Federal State of New Russia. Putin may decide, since the war is not going well for him, that taking these areas along the Black Sea and declaring them part of “New Russia” will be enough to rehabilitate himself in the eyes of the Russian people. A peace treaty could end up ceding New Russia to Putin as either a puppet state or reincorporate it into Russia itself. If this is the least acceptable outcome for Putin, the question becomes — what is the Russian President willing to achieve it? He escalated the threat level with his rhetoric recently when he warned the US and NATO not to interfere with his special military operation or risk nuclear confrontation. This is not new to Russian military minds. Last fall a former member of the Russian Security Council, Andrei Kokoshin, along with Aleksandr Shlyakhturov who served as former head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the General Staff, wrote an article on nuclear deterrence and escalation in which they stated “The core of convincing strategic deterrence in Russia’s national security policy has been and remains a demonstration of the ability, under any—[even] the most unfavorable— conditions to carry out a retaliatory [nuclear] strike with catastrophic consequences for the aggressor… Political-military deterrence may also be accompanied by the threat of other harsh political and economic measures against the ‘opponent’ even before the threshold of the use of the Armed Forces. Many theorists and practitioners of deterrence have rightly noted and continue to note that for effective deterrence, the threat must look plausible. At the same time, the credibility of such a threat depends on the risks and costs that the deterrent may have in demonstrating such a threat”” Roger McDermott, of the Jamestown Foundation, points out this week that “This has been at play since February 24.” 

The Russian authors suggest that as Russia moves up the nuclear ladder toward a launch, the options not to use a nuclear weapon narrow and the level becomes one where “one or more parties begin to consider the practical possibility of using nuclear weapons.” They also suggest that once a nuclear launch is considered it is very difficult for Russia to de-escalate the situation since doing so could lead to an expanded conventional war. If the US and the West enter the conflict and Putin views nuclear confrontation as his only means to achieve a limited objective in recreating “New Russia,” the world may be looking at a direct nuclear clash. While Russia still has many avenues left to avoid using a nuclear weapon, the West must be prepared as Putin has stated that his philosophy is like that of a rat he once saw trapped in a corner as a child – it was willing fight until its own the death. He is like that rat.

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept. and teaches at a major university.

Illustration: Russian ASAT test (Leiber Institute, West Point)

The U.S. State Department has released its latest report on terrorism. This is the final installment of the overview prepared by John T. Godfrey Acting Coordinator for Counterterrorism.

Another major line of effort for 2020 was to strengthen partner capabilities to detect, disrupt, and dismantle terrorist networks. The United States supported governments on the front lines against terrorist threats in critical areas, including information sharing, aviation and border security, law enforcement capacity building, and countering the financing of terrorism. To restrict terrorist travel, the United States signed seven arrangements either with new partner countries or new agencies in existing partner countries, under Homeland Security Presidential Directive/HSPD-6, to share information on known and suspected terrorists, bringing the total number of partner countries to 78. The Personal Identification Secure Comparison and Evaluation System (known as PISCES) border security platform grew to include 227 ports of entry in 24 countries, with international partners using it to screen hundreds of thousands of travelers each day.

The United States continued to emphasize to its partners — both publicly and privately — the critical responsibility of governments engaged in counterterrorism operations to ensure that their security forces respect international human rights and humanitarian law and hold their security forces accountable for violations and abuses committed against civilians during these operations.

The United States also engaged with multilateral organizations, including the United Nations, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, and Hedayah, to advance U.S. counterterrorism priorities, bolster partner capacity to implement international obligations and commitments, and promote greater burden sharing among key partners. The United States partnered with the United Kingdom and the International Institute of Justice and Rule of Law to launch a new REMVE-focused initiative that gathered more than 40 practitioners and subject-matter experts from 15 countries and nine international organizations to share best practices and identify concrete steps to confront this threat more effectively. In September the 30-member Global Counterterrorism Forum adopted two important framework documents focused on strengthening coordination between national-level and local-level efforts to counter violent extremism and enhance criminal justice responses at the nexus of terrorism and organized crime.

The United States engaged a host of international partners — from governments to local religious leaders and tech companies — to prevent and counter violent extremism, both online and offline. The Department of State supported international initiatives, including the Strong Cities Network and the Global Community Engagement and Resilience Fund, and focused on building local resiliency to terrorist radicalization and recruitment misinformation and disinformation, most recently through funded programs in Bangladesh, Indonesia, Kenya, Somalia, the Philippines, the Sahel, and the Western Balkans. The United States also integrated countermessaging strategies with critical stakeholder partners, including the tech sector. For example, the Department of State engaged with U.S.-based technology companies in 2020, after designating RIM as an SDGT. In response, Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, and Google/YouTube subsequently decided to remove RIM accounts and content from their platforms. In addition, the United States enhanced efforts through the Global Internet Forum to Counterterrorism to support voluntary collaboration with technology companies to deter terrorist access to their platforms.

This brief overview of the United States’ ongoing work to protect our people and our allies from the ongoing threat of terrorism reflects the breadth and depth of our efforts.

Photo: Pixabay

The U.S. State Department has released its latest report on terrorism. This is Part 2 of the overview prepared by John T. Godfrey Acting Coordinator for Counterterrorism.

The global COVID-19 pandemic complicated the terrorist landscape, creating both challenges and opportunities for terrorist groups. While the pandemic disrupted terrorist travel, financing, and operations, terrorist groups adapted their approaches and appeals, using the internet to continue radicalizing others to violence and inspiring attacks worldwide. ISIS exploited the crisis to reinforce violent extremist narratives, proclaiming to followers that the virus was “God’s wrath upon the West.” AQ affiliate al-Shabaab demonstrated an ability to raise and manage substantial resources. Al-Shabaab also engaged in disinformation campaigns to exacerbate COVID-19-related grievances and undermine trust in the Government of Somalia. REMVE actors used the pandemic to incite violence, advocating for followers to actively spread the virus to members of religious or racial minority groups. The pandemic posed additional risks to some U.S. partners, who were less able to focus on counterterrorism efforts and other national security issues given the immediate need to address the COVID-19 crisis.

Amid this diverse and dynamic threat landscape, the United States played an important role in marshaling international efforts to counter global terrorism. In 2020 the United States led the UN Security Council’s 1267 Sanctions Committee’s efforts to designate ISIS affiliates in West Africa, the Greater Sahara, Libya, Yemen, and Indonesia and assign designations to Muhammad Sa’id Abdal-Rahman al-Mawla, the new ISIS leader, and Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan leader Noor Wali Mehsud. In November the United States and Nigeria co-hosted the first Defeat-ISIS Coalition meeting on combating ISIS threats across West Africa and the Sahel. At this meeting, Mauritania announced its membership in the Defeat-ISIS Coalition, becoming its 83rd member and the 13th from sub-Saharan Africa. Additionally, the United States continued high-level diplomatic engagement to counter Hizballah across Central America, South America, and Europe. In January the United States participated in the third Western Hemisphere Counterterrorism Ministerial in Bogota, Colombia — a high-level process launched by the United States in 2018 to confront terrorist threats in the region. This ministerial has been critical in advancing U.S. efforts against Hizballah, with five South and Central American countries recognizing the group as a unitary terrorist organization in the last several years. In 2020, Germany also banned Hizballah domestically with numerous other European governments, including Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Slovenia, following suit with steps of its own.

The United States continued to play a major role in the repatriation, rehabilitation, reintegration, and prosecution of ISIS foreign terrorist fighters (FTFs) and family members. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have detained about 2,000 non-Syrian and non-Iraqi fighters who remain in Syria. In addition, there are roughly 5,000 Syrian and 2,000 Iraqi fighters in SDF custody. Tens of thousands of FTF family members, primarily women and children, remain in displaced persons’ camps in Syria. To ensure that ISIS fighters and family members captured by the SDF never return to the battlefield, the United States continued to lead by example in bringing back its citizens and prosecuting them when appropriate. As of December, the United States had repatriated 28 U.S. citizens from Syria and Iraq — 12 adults and 16 children — and the Department of Justice charged 10 of the adults with a variety of terrorism-related crimes.

The United States also urged countries of origin to repatriate, rehabilitate, reintegrate, and, where appropriate, prosecute their fighters and associated family members. The U.S. government also assisted several countries in doing so with their citizens or nationals. Additionally, in October, the United States supported the United Kingdom in the transfer of Alexandra Amon Kotey and El Shafee Elsheikh, two of the four ISIS militant fighters known as the “Beatles,” to the United States for prosecution. The two individuals were charged for their involvement in a hostagetaking scheme that caused the deaths of four U.S. citizens, as well as the deaths of British and Japanese nationals, in Syria.

The report concludes tomorrow

Photo: Pixabay

The U.S. State Department has released its latest report on terrorism. This is Part 1 of the three-part overview prepared by John T. Godfrey Acting Coordinator for Counterterrorism.

During 2020 the United States and its partners made significant major strides against terrorist organizations; however, the terrorism threat has become more geographically dispersed in regions around the world. Together with international partners, the United States has responded to the evolving threat, including by expanding the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS, which now counts 83 members. The Defeat-ISIS Coalition worked to consolidate gains in Iraq and Syria, while broadening efforts to counter the growing ISIS threat in West Africa and the Sahel. In March the United States designated the new leader of ISIS, Amir Muhammad Sa’id AbdalRahman al-Mawla, as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGT). U.S.-led military operations in 2020 resulted in the deaths of Qassim al-Rimi, the emir of al-Qa’ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), and of senior al-Qa’ida (AQ) leaders in Syria. The United States continued to address threats posed by state-sponsored terrorism, sanctioning Iran-supported groups such as Iraq-based Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq and Bahrain-based Saraya al-Mukhtar. Nine countries across the Western Hemisphere and Europe took significant steps in 2020 to designate, ban, or otherwise restrict Hizballah — following the lead of four other governments that took similar actions the previous year. Reflecting the growing threat from racially or ethnically motivated violent extremism (REMVE), the Department of State also designated a white supremacist terrorist organization for the first time in 2020, imposing sanctions against the Russian Imperial Movement (RIM) and three of its leaders in April.

Despite important counterterrorism successes, terrorist groups remained a persistent and pervasive threat worldwide. Although ISIS lost all the territory it had seized in Iraq and Syria, the organization and its branches continued to mount a worldwide terrorism campaign, carrying out deadly attacks globally. Illustrating the evolving threat, ISIS affiliates outside Iraq and Syria caused more fatalities during 2020 than in any previous year. ISIS maintained an active presence and low-level insurgency in Iraq and Syria, with increased attacks in both countries during the first half of 2020. In South and Southeast Asia, ISIS radicalized individuals to violence, inspiring them to conduct attacks. In Africa, ISIS-affiliated groups increased the volume and lethality of their attacks across West Africa, the Sahel, the Lake Chad Basin, and northern Mozambique. Deaths attributable to ISIS-affiliated attacks in West Africa alone almost doubled from around 2,700 in 2017 to nearly 5,000 in 2020. In Mozambique, an estimated 1,500 deaths were due to ISIS-Mozambique attacks.

In 2020 the United States and its partners continued to battle AQ and its affiliates around the world. The organization faced significant leadership losses with the elimination of Abdelmalek. Droukdel, the emir of al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, and AQ’s number two, Abu Muhammad al-Masri. Yet, AQ’s networks continued to exploit undergoverned spaces, conflict zones, and security gaps in the Middle East to acquire terrorist resources and conduct terrorist attacks. AQ further bolstered its presence abroad, particularly in the Middle East and Africa, where AQ affiliates AQAP, al-Shabaab in the Horn of Africa, and Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin in the Sahel remain among the most active and dangerous terrorist groups in the world. In January 2020, al-Shabaab attacked a military base shared by U.S. and Kenyan military forces in Manda Bay, Kenya, killing one U.S. servicemember and two U.S. contractors. This incident marked the deadliest terrorist attack against U.S. military forces in Africa since 2017.

Iran continued to support acts of terrorism regionally and globally during 2020. Regionally, Iran supported proxies and partner groups in Bahrain, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen, including Hizballah and Hamas. Senior AQ leaders continued to reside in Iran and facilitate terrorist operations from there. Globally, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods Force remained the primary Iranian actors involved in supporting terrorist recruitment, financing, and plots across Europe, Africa, and Asia, and both Americas.

The REMVE threat also continued to expand rapidly, including growing transnational links between REMVE actors around the world. The UN Security Council’s Counterterrorism Committee noted a 320 percent increase in “extreme right-wing terrorism” globally in the five years preceding 2020. White supremacist, anti-government, violent conspiracy theorist, and like-minded individuals and groups targeted perceived enemies and conducted deadly attacks around the world. U.S.-based REMVE actors have communicated with and traveled abroad to engage in person with foreign REMVE actors. In February, a racially motivated violent extremist in Hanau, Germany, shot nine patrons in two shisha bars and then returned home to shoot his mother and finally himself, underscoring the recent surge in violence by REMVE actors.

The report continues tomorrow.

Photo: Pixabay