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Putin’s Paranoia

Fear can be a positive motivator driving people to go beyond their comfort zone to achieve great success.

In August 1762, Ben Franklin wrote a letter to Lord Kames in which he said: “…I am going to a Country and a People that I love. I am going from the old World to the new; and I fancy I feel like those who are leaving this World for the next; Grief at the Parting; Fear of the Passage; Hope of the Future….” Franklin had good cause to be concerned about traveling the Atlantic in a small, wooden sailing ship. Fear is not the same as paranoia.

The latter is characterized by systematized delusions and the projection of personal conflicts, which are ascribed to the supposed hostility of others.

For some, such as Vladimir Putin, paranoia can progress to disturbances of consciousness and aggressive acts. Today we are witnessing the Russian president, who believes he is performing acts of self-defense or is on a mission for the Russian Motherland, commit crimes against humanity in Ukraine. His excessive suspicion of the motives of others, and of other nation-states, has led him beyond a fear of treacherous waters into a state of true paranoia.

Putin does not trust those around him, and he cannot tolerate criticism, especially when it comes from a renowned  foreign policy analyst such as Janusz Bugajski. Born in 1954 in Cheshire, England, Bugajski has had a long and prestigious career on the BBC and Radio Free Europe, as a military and political analyst, and he has written about two dozen books on Eastern Europe and Russia. Currently he serves as a senior Fellow at the Jamestown Foundation. Bugajski’s latest book, released this spring, caught Putin’s attention. It is entitled: Failed State: A Guide to Russia’s Rupture. 

In August the Russian Defense Ministry’s television channel, Zvezda, dedicated a full 30-minute segment to attacking Bugajski’s book in an attempt to discredit him and reveal his alleged agenda to destroy Russia. In a press release from the Jamestown Foundation this week, it pointed out that “The program even goes so far as to characterize Bugajski’s and other analysts’ work as the latest recurrence of ‘Nazi policies.’” It is not the first attack on a Jamestown Foundation fellow. The Kremlin has targeted a number of other Jamestown commentators. 

Earlier this year, Senior Fellow Margarita Assenova was placed on a sanctions list by the Kremlin. Putin does not support free speech when he believes it threatens him. This week distinguished senior fellow Paul Goble, from the same foundation, was banned by Moscow from staying in Russia. Goble expressed his feelings, saying that “As ‘the real father’ of the League of Free Nations of Russia and its calls for the decolonization of Russia, as well as now being subject, by order of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, to a lifetime ban from staying in Russia, I can testify that I take pride in this and have received messages of congratulations from far and near. How could it be otherwise as I received my ban along with distinguished American scholar on Central Asia [and strong supporter of Jamestown], S. Frederick Starr.”

A statement from the Jamestown Foundation released this week said that “Ironically, rather than delegitimize the work of Bugajski and others, Moscow’s assaults on Jamestown’s analysts have backfired in providing free and expanded coverage of their work throughout Russia and its near abroad. With the Zvezda television program, the Russian Defense Ministry in fact attracted far more attention to Failed State than ever before.” Putin’s paranoia must be deepening. Bugajski’s book suggests that paradoxically, “while Vladimir Putin assumed power to prevent Russia’s disintegration, he may be remembered as precipitating the country’s demise. New territorial entities will surface as Moscow’s credibility crisis deepens amidst spreading ungovernability, elite power struggles, political polarization, nationalist radicalism, and regional and ethnic revivals.” He points out that the emerging states will not be uniform in their internal political and administrative structures. Border conflicts and territorial claims are likely between some entities, he argues, while others may develop into new federal or confederal states.

Bugajski concludes that the US must develop an effective strategy for managing Russia’s rupture by supporting regionalism and federalism, acknowledging sovereignty and separation, calibrating the role of other major powers, developing linkages with new state entities, strengthening the security of countries bordering Russia, and promoting trans-Atlanticism or trans-Pacificism among emerging states. Rebekah Koffler, a Russian military analyst and author of Inside Putin’s Mind, says that when cornered, Putin can be expected to “fight to the death like a cornered rat.” As the situation evolves in Ukraine, the world may see a treacherous and paranoid leader taking even more drastic measures if the war in Ukraine goes badly for Russia. To date he has shown no indication that he is willing to negotiate a settlement.

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.

Photo: Russian Govt. official site

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Election Time Delusions

As surely as the lush, green leaves of summer will soon turn to the colors of Autumn, the media will begin its election year scale-tipping to hide the dire mistakes made by their Left-wing darlings in preparation for November’s coming election. 

Discouraging likely voters and donors by manipulated polling is a tried-and-true election tactic.

Over the next several weeks, expect to see reports that the price of gas is going down.  That won’t last, of course.  As soon as that First Tuesday in the 11th month concludes, temporary measures such as the dangerous step of releasing fuel from the Strategic Petroleum reserve and other short-lived actions will wear off.  And of course, thanks to the Biden White House’s jihad against fossil fuels, the cost of home heating will be devastating this winter.  But that’s after election day, so don’t expect to see much conversation on that point!

Despite disastrous inflation, foreign policy debacles, massive increases in crime, failing education, and a government that treats thse that dissents from its viewpoint as “domestic terrorists,” expect to see poll after poll proclaiming that Democrats have pulled ahead. 

Inaccurate polling is far too commonplace. noted that “Most preelection polls in 2020 overstated Joe Biden’s lead over Donald Trump in the national vote for president, and in some states incorrectly indicated that Biden would likely win [in that state] or that the race would be close when it was not. These problems led some commentators to argue that ‘polling is irrevocably broken,’ that pollsters should be ignored, or that ‘the polling industry is a wreck, and should be blown up.’”

Objective, non-political sources have described how polling has portrayed inaccurate, non-existent strength for Democrat candidates. Scientific American reported that “In the weeks leading up to the November 2016 election, polls across the country predicted an easy sweep for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. From Vanuatu to Timbuktu, everyone knows what happened…they missed the mark in key swing states that tilted the Electoral College toward Trump.” The study also noted that there is “evidence that people are more likely to pick up the phone if they’re Democrats.”

A Guardian article concurs, citing the same research. “Political polls regarding US elections in 2020 overstated Democratic support “across the board”, US political scientists found, while understating support for Republicans and Donald Trump. The finding, which will alarm Democrats aiming to hold on to their narrow control of the US House and Senate in 2022, is contained in a new study by the American Association for Public Opinion Research. Josh Clinton, a Vanderbilt University professor and AAPOR taskforce member, told the Washington Post: ‘There was a systematic error that was found in terms of the overstatement for Democratic support across the board.’”

Crime has surged under Democrat-supported left-wing District Attorneys have swept into office across the nation. A Fox analysis reports that “Violent crimes have reached unprecedented numbers in the last two years…” As election day draws closer, however, expect to see “get tough” comments from the same legislators, mayors and governors who presided over this dire problem and established the policies that allowed it to occur.  That change in attitude will vanish as soon as the election is over.

And, of course, expect the phony scandal machine to be working overtime. From 2016 on, we heard Nancy Pelosi and Adam Schiff endlessly proclaim that the Trump Administration was engaged in “Russian collusion.” Tens of millions of taxpayer dollars and endless hours of Congressional time were utilized to keep the nonsense charges in the public eye.  All were found to be utterly false. The timing of the latest politically-manipulated raid in the final months before the 2022 election are more of the same.

Frank Vernuccio serves as editor-in-chief of the New York Analysis of Policy and Government

Illustration: Pixabay

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Gorbachev and Reagan Deserved More

The death of Mikhail Gorbachev at 91 ends an era of extraordinary leaders who changed the world for the better. Along with the United Kingdom’s Margaret Thatcher, the Vatican’s Pope John XXIII, and, most importantly, one of America’s greatest presidents, Ronald Reagan, these visionary and heroic individuals defied conventional thought, ignored critics, and had the morality and courage to do what had to be done to end needless suffering and remove the planet from the brink of Armageddon.

Gorbachev realized that the Soviet Union’s foundation of communism and aggressive opposition to the west had bankrupted his nation and strangled the culture of his people. He measured the determination and strength of President Reagan, whose nation was backed by a capitalist system that left the Kremlin’s socialism in the dust. He understood that Reagan’s bid to build a space defense system would render the USSR’s only real claim to greatness, its vast nuclear arsenal, ineffective. He understood that the Pope’s moral authority, combined with the heroism of Polish labor leader Lech Wałęsa, would make Moscow’s occupation of its enslaved nations untenable.

It would have been easy for Gorbachev to take the path of least resistance, and continue with the same policies that had kept his predecessors in power. He chose to do otherwise. He implemented the concepts of “perestroika,” also known as restructuring, and “glasnost,” meaning openness. He understood the risk he was taking, and while not seeking the dissolution of the Soviet Union, nevertheless did what had to be done for the good of the Russian people, essentially eliminating his own power in the process. 

It is important to understand the environment that existed when Gorbachev assumed power in the 1980s.

An extraordinary change had already occurred in the United States under the leadership of Ronald Reagan, who took office in 1981.  Throughout the prior decade, the debacles of the Vietnam War, the Watergate Scandal, and ruinous inflation had demoralized America. The nation projected weakness abroad, (exemplified by the Iran hostage crisis) a declining military, and an economy that was subpar.  Despite overwhelming criticism from the media, the intelligentsia, and traditional politicians, Reagan projected optimism. He succeeded in reversing the multi-faceted decline. It was fashionable at the time to perceive America and the west as a fading power, losing out to the Kremlin.  It was believed that the nation’s capitalist tradition was no longer working for the majority.

As a presidential candidate, Reagan articulated a different reality.  He proposed rebuilding the nation’s armed forces and confronting expansionist Socialism. He championed the free market, and fought against domestic critics who attempted to knock it down through excessive strikes and leftist ideas. He opposed those academics and pundits who constantly and inaccurately criticized American national traditions.

Inevitably, he was harshly condemned by the political, academic, and media establishments.  It was said that, if elected, he would start World War III, crash the economy, and drive the U.S. into chaos. The result, of course, was the exact opposite.  By reducing taxes, he revived the economy. By fully funding the Pentagon and openly confronting the USSR, he restored American leadership throughout the globe. He praised America’s successes and history, and restored faith in the country.

It is an epic tragedy that the work of both Gorbachev and Reagan has been overturned in our day.  Vladimir Putin has returned Russia to its Stalinist practices, both internally and abroad. He has invested heavily in nuclear weaponry, and clearly seeks to rebuild the Soviet Empire.  His invasion of Ukraine is only the first step in that effort.

In the United States, Joe Biden has projected the weakness Reagan disdained. His feckless foreign policy, his underfunding of the military, and his manifest lack of appreciation for America’s history, along with his extreme partisanship, depresses the national mood.  His tax and spend policies devastate the economy.

Gorbachev and Reagan deserved far better from their successors.

Illustration: Pixabay

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Insanity Hits Criminal Justice

When I was the Night Court Judge for Brooklyn, New York, I handled the first court appearance (known as an “arraignment”) for up to 100 people a night. I was responsible for using my discretion to decide whether to set bail on a defendant, or whether they could be trusted to return to court on their own (“release on own recognizance,” or “ROR”).

There were several factors I used in making my decision.  Did the defendant have a history of not returning to court (a defendant’s criminal history, or “rap sheet,” which lists the number of times a “bench warrant” was issued for a defendant’s arrest when that defendant failed to appear for a court appointment)?  Did they have open and pending cases?  Did they have “ties to the community,” that is, a stable residence and family, or a job?

Open and pending cases was always a great concern of mine.  If the majority of us had been arrested for anything, most of us would make sure we did not place ourselves in a position to be rearrested.  The fact that a person has a case pending for drug sales, robbery, or driving while under the influence, and is arrested for another offense while that first case is still open, usually points to a larger problem.  Multiple robberies and drug sales are often an indicator of gang activity; repeated DUI’s or domestic violence arrests can be caused by psychological issues.

In either instance, when a defendant was a repeat offender – a “recidivist” – and especially if that defendant had more than one open and pending cases, I was extremely likely to set bail and stop that defendant’s pattern of criminal activity.

Under the current “no bail” laws, I could no longer follow this basic analysis to its logical conclusion.  The “Bail Elimination Act of 2019”  specifically states that “(w)hen a principal, whose  future  court  attendance  at  a  criminal action  or  proceeding  is or may be required, initially comes under the control of a court, such  court…SHALL…RELEASE THE PRINCIPAL PENDING TRIAL ON THE PRINCIPAL’S  PERSONAL RECOGNIZANCE, UNLESS THE COURT FINDS ON THE RECORD THAT RELEASE ON RECOGNIZANCE WILL NOT REASONABLY ASSURE THE INDIVIDUAL’S COURT ATTENDANCE. IN SUCH INSTANCES, THE COURT WILL RELEASE THE INDIVIDUAL UNDER  NON-MONETARY  CONDITIONS,  SELECTING  THE  LEAST  RESTRICTIVE ALTERNATIVE  THAT  WILL  REASONABLY ASSURE THE PRINCIPAL’S COURT ATTENDANCE. THE COURT WILL SUPPORT ITS CHOICE OF ALTERNATIVE ON THE RECORD.  A PRINCIPAL  SHALL  NOT  BE  REQUIRED  TO  PAY FOR ANY PART OF THE COST OF RELEASE UNDER NON-MONETARY CONDITIONS.” (Caps in original.)

In other words, the Court’s of New York are required to release a defendant, and even if the Court finds a reason to hold a defendant after their arrest, the Court must still “release the individual under non-monetary conditions, selecting the least restrictive alternative” to insure the defendant’s return.

In the two years since this new system took effect, how has the Bail Elimination Act worked for New York?

“10 career criminals (have) rack(ed) up nearly 500 arrests after New York enacted its controversial bail reform law – and most of them are still out on the streets…statistics compiled by the NYPD…show that the city’s alleged ‘worst of the worst’ repeat offenders have been busted a total of 485 times since bail reform went into effect in 2020.  Two of the defendants are actually accused of embarking on lives of crime in the wake of bail reform, with one busted 33 times since 2020 and the other busted 22 times.”

Meanwhile, in June of this year,  “(a) ‘professional booster‘…notched what could be her 100th bust over the weekend – and was released without bail yet again…Michelle McKelley, 42, was arrested…for allegedly pocketing $125 worth of goods from a CVS in Lower Manhattan, and then was freed under the state’s soft-on-crime criminal justice reforms. Prosecutors said in Manhattan Criminal Court…that McKelley has failed to appear in court 27 times on her multitude of past arrests – and has five other pending cases. But the charges do not qualify for bail under the 2019 state reform, which means prosecutors could only ask that she be let go on supervised release while the case is pending.” 

Then there is the 16 year old who was arrested after a wild altercation with a police officer in a New York City subway station.  In July, just days before his fist fight with the police, the youth had been arrested for a violent robbery in which “he and three others jumped a 49-year-old man on a Midtown street, punching the victim and running off with his cellphone. Prosecutors with the Manhattan District Attorney’s Office requested he be released with ‘intensive community monitoring’ at his arraignment, though they could have requested bail on the top robbery charge. A few days later…the boy was arrested for the subway incident, in which he was caught on camera violently attacking a Manhattan cop after allegedly jumping a turnstile at the 125th Street-Lexington Avenue station in East Harlem. The teen was again released without bail …” 

It is any wonder, then, that according to New York Mayor Eric Adams,   “Time and time again, our police officers make an arrest, and then the person who is arrested for assault, felonious assaults, robberies and gun possessions, they’re finding themselves back on the street within days– if not hours — after the arrest…(a)nd they go on to commit more crimes within weeks, if not days…(o)ur criminal justice system is insane.”  

Mayor Adams can expect no help from the District Attorney’s Office.  Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg, elected with the help of George Soros, believes that “(r)eversing the effects of mass incarceration is an urgent moral, civil rights, and human rights issue and is one of (his) highest priorities as Manhattan District Attorney…Alvin believes that…prison sentences (are) imposed far too often…for nonviolent cases and others for which prison is not warranted.  These excess prison sentences do not make us safer.  In fact, they make us less safe because they increase the chances of recidivism.”

Would a prison sentence , or at least the threat of jail time, perhaps put an end to the criminal activity of the shoplifter on her 100th arrest, or any of the 10 defendants responsible for almost 500 arrests since 2020?  Common sense would seem to indicate this being the case.  But DA Bragg believes in “(e)xpanding Restorative Justice programming significantly and relying heavily on it…(t)he programming will be community-based and not operated by the DA office or any other law enforcement entity.”   

In other words, DA Bragg believes placing a recidivist in jail will not stop recidivism – but community based programs will.

What if the defendant does not comply with their “Restorative Justice” program? “In any case in which a person allegedly violates the terms of a non-incarceratory sentence,” the Manhattan DA will “seek an incarceratory ‘alternative’…only as a matter of last resort, after repeated opportunities are afforded for a successful completion of the mandate.  Research shows that relapses are part of the road to recovery…”

In other words, rather than place the serial shoplifter in jail, DA Bragg would have her enroll in a program, and if she fails that program, give her an undetermined number of opportunities to complete the program.  What would constitute failure?  Not attending the program – and rearrests.

The repetitive nature of the Manhattan DA’s policies are obvious.  Instead of seeking a jail sentence for a repeat offender, that offender is given another opportunity to reoffend, with the hope that after a certain undetermined number of chances, that offender will “magically” just give up (maybe from exhaustion), and return to law abiding ways.

What could go wrong?

DA Bragg, and the progressives in the New York State Legislature who established the No-bail laws of 2019, rely upon research studies that “shorter sentences would actually reduce future offending.”  However, “much of the academic research regarding the effect of length of incarceration on recidivism suffered from serious methodological flaws, including too-small study sizes and ill-advised attempts to judge the impact of minor differences in incarceration.”

Recently, the United States Sentencing Commission conducted a study to determine if longer jail sentences have an effect on recidivism.  The result was predictable to all but Alvin Bragg and his supporters.  “For defendants receiving a sentence of more than 60 months (five years), the odds of recidivism were 18 percent lower than a matched group of prisoners receiving shorter sentences. For defendants with sentences of more than 120 months (ten years), the odds of recidivism were 29 percent lower…(c)ontrary to current academic thinking, then, the length of a criminal’s sentence matters quite a bit in reducing future offending.” 

It always seemed to be a matter of common sense for me – if someone is offending repeatedly, incarcerating them stops their criminal activity.  Until the Manhattan DA and the New York Legislature learn this simple lesson, the citizens of New York can continue to be subjected to more progressive social science experiments – and more crime.

Judge John Wilson served on the bench in NYC

Illustration: Pixabay

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A World in Turmoil

What is the State Department highlighting this week in its media releases? The headlines coming out of Washington include: “China Could Overtake US in Space,” “Terrorism Rising in African Sahel,” “US is Participating in UN Chiefs of Police Summit,” and “The Kremlin’s Illegitimate Tribunals in Mariupol,” among others. On Saturday, the Department released a joint statement with other nations saying it met to talk about the problems in Syria. A day earlier the Department noted that it met for the ninth in a series of talks labeled the” US-Vietnam Asia-Pacific Dialogue.” One day earlier on Thursday the Department released a statement saying the “G7 Non-Proliferation Directors Group remains profoundly concerned by the serious threat over the continued control of Ukrainian nuclear facilities by Russian armed forces pose to the safety and security of these facilities.” The list goes on week after week, meeting after meeting, during a period of severe instability across the world. Diplomacy is a war of words, but it requires strong, unambiguous action backing up those statements. What is the leader of the free world doing? Why all talk and so little action out of Washington?

China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, among other states hostile to the west, are joined together in an unholy alliance that is historic in size. The population of these four states alone surpasses 1,658,478,000. They supply each other with weapons of war and buy each other’s goods that are sanctioned by the rest of the world to help keep their economies afloat. Iran builds and sells drones to Russia for use in its war in Ukraine. China buys Russian wheat and energy. They take action.

The State Department’s response to a ship getting past the Russian Navy this week said that it was “grateful” a Ukrainian wheat shipment got through the Black Sea to its African destination. “The United States welcomes the arrival in Djibouti of 23,300 metric tons of Ukrainian grain aboard the ship Brave Commander. This grain will be distributed within Ethiopia and Somalia, countries that are dangerously food insecure after four years of drought. The United States is grateful for the important role Djibouti has played facilitating the flow of humanitarian goods to the region.” 

In the past it was said that other nation-states knew US foreign policy by the actions Washington took, or the ones it deliberately did not take. The message was made clear to those who violated the rules-based international order. What is left of US foreign policy today appears muddled in broad announcements reacting to what other states are doing. Again, where is the leadership? What is our foreign policy?

The United States in 1954 signed a Mutual Defense Treaty with Taiwan. Since that time the US derecognized the country, formalized relations with China, and continues to attempt to placate both sides of the Strait. This week it came down to a retired Taiwanese tech mogul, who was weary of US inaction, pledging his millions to fund training for civilian troops to protect Taiwan. Robert Tsao says he is willing to spend $33 million to fund the training of 3 million civilians for three years. That is action. At the same time this week the Biden Administration announced the “United States will continue to advocate for a fair, practical criminal justice instrument that respects human rights and provides a modern electronic evidence framework built on consensus and informed by experts” to handle cybercrime. The US media are culpable, too. ABC News spent more time this week reporting on the “emotional support alligator” seen in Love Park in Philadelphia than on the genocide of over a million Muslim Uyghurs in western China. A year ago, the Biden Administration failed in its withdrawal from Afghanistan. Americans lost their lives. No one in the Biden Administration is taking responsibility or talking about it. This Thursday at a State Department briefing for the media, the Spokesperson responded to a reporter’s question about the impact of potential leak of radioactive material from the Russian-bombed ZNPP power plant in southern Ukraine. Vedant Patel, Principal Deputy Spokesperson in the Bureau of Global Public Affairs said: “We strongly condemn any action at ZNPP or elsewhere that impacts the health and welfare of civilians throughout the region.”

Now that the US has offered its statement of concern our European allies downwind can rest easy. 

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.

Image: Pixabay

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Xi ‘s Decade of Disaster

Anniversaries of significant historical dates and economic plans are cause for celebration in the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Next month is doubly important as it marks 10 years since Xi Jinping gained power as general secretary of the CCP. China also will hold an important Party Congress where progress on Xi’s decade-long economic record will be reviewed. While Xi has attained exulted political status, it appears that the results of his economic reform plan are mixed. He “has garnered the most attention for his actions in non-economic realms (treatment of Uyghurs, Tibetans, and Hong Kong citizens; zero tolerance of COVID-19; and alignment with Russia and support for its invasion of Ukraine). But his economic record is important as well because it affects the everyday life of 1.4 billion people, with large spillovers to the rest of the world economy,” says David Dollar of China Leadership Monitor.

As an economy matures its growth rate typically slows. This is the case with China. During Hu Jintao’s decade of rule, China’s GDP growth averaged 10.6%.  Under Xi Jinping’s rule the first nine years GDP growth slowed to only 6.5%. The four-point drop is huge in economic terms, especially since it comes mostly from a decline in Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth. The expansion of capital and labor inputs has been fairly steady, slowing only a minor amount, but the impact of these inputs has diminished sharply, according to Dollar. During Hu’s time in power the TFP averaged 3.5%. By the time Xi assumed power, it had dropped precipitously to 0.7%. The decrease indicates that technological upgrading, either through innovation or borrowing, has slowed as have improvements in the efficiency with which resources are used. The 3% difference in the TFP by 2049 is expected to result in a dramatic lowering of the Chinese standard of living.

At the same time as the TFP dropped, Xi Jinping introduced three main areas of policy reform that have, so far, brought in mixed returns for the domestic economy. First, he stepped-up industrial-policy intervention beyond what is the norm in a communist country. Xi also expanded the role of the state in broad areas of economic concern and in the allocation of capital. Dollar says Xi’s activist industrial policy is aimed at increasing China’s self-sufficiency and reducing its technology dependence on the West. In contradiction, Xi’s second major policy change has accelerated China’s foreign trade and investment liberalization, despite calls for increased domestic production to improve self-sufficiency. 

“The third important policy change under Xi has been a commitment to reduce China’s carbon emissions and to contribute to the global effort to limit temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius,” says Dollar. Although Xi publicly committed China to a net-zero emissions by 2060 and to “strictly control” the increased use of coal over the next decade, reaching peak carbon by 2030, China is not following through on its publicly-stated commitments. China’s coal-fire power plants, among the dirtiest in the world, are expected to continue operations without cutbacks for the next forty years. That is how long Chinese estimates it has ample coal supplies. 

One China energy analyst reports that a Chinese official said that China will continue to experience rising coal use and emissions for another decade or more and that the country will suffer from related rises in the sea level, extreme heat, and water supply issues. China’s coal supply has a high sulfur content causing incomplete burning of the material that results in lower levels of energy produced. The negative impact on the Chinese economy and the country’s living standards could reverse gains made since 2000. “Xi’s industrial policy gambits are also risky, both economically, because it seems much capital is wasted without positive results, and politically.  Relations between a rising China and a relatively declining US were always likely to be difficult, but the program seeking to monopolize the advanced technologies of the future naturally makes the relationship more contentious,” says Dollar. Despite some negative indicators, Xi has managed to maintain a 6% growth rate that will, during his tenure in office, be sufficient to eliminate poverty in China. About 1/3 of China fell below the World Bank’s extreme poverty line (31.7%) in 2002. By 2012 it had dropped to 6.5%. 

Under Xi the World Bank figures indicate it declined further, to 0.1% by 2019. Xi’s aggressive push for technological advancements in support of the military comes at a cost to other parts of the economy, including land reform and social inequality. To date, Xi has accomplished little in creating a strong consumption-oriented economy. At the CCP Congress next month hardliners favoring China’s military prowess will likely give Xi good marks, while those favoring a more liberal, consumer economy may argue that little progress has been made for the country as a whole over the last 10 years and there is little to celebrate moving into the next ten year economic plan.   

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.

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Space Threats to be Reviewed

NASA estimates there were over 27,000 pieces of space debris circling the planet 15 months ago. Last November Russia added another 1,500 pieces to that count when it used a missile test to destroy one of its Soviet era, non-working satellites. As the amount of debris continues to climb so does the threat to safety in space and the possibility of war from novel space weapons. Next week Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin will host a classified meeting to consider the implications of Russia and China’s pursuit of advanced space weapons. The public announcement of this discussion comes after two key events last year: the destruction of the defunct Russian satellite and the historic first with China’s testing of an advanced hypersonic glide vehicle and fractional orbital bombardment system, according to Joe Gould of Defense News. Admiral Charles Richard, chief of US Strategic Command, admitted such a test was “never before seen in the world.” “Richard, speaking at the Space and Missile Defense Symposium earlier this month, said the military must now overhaul its missile defenses and develop systems to better warn against launches aimed at the US.” 

The Secretary will meet with his Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks, Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl and the Defense Policy Board, which is comprised of former national security officials. Assistant Secretary of Defense for Space Policy John Plumb will brief the board on the Pentagon’s upcoming space strategic review. Putin’s war in Ukraine has not slowed Russia’s aggressive space policy. DOD is planning to examine potential responses to Moscow’s ground-to-space weapons program and how it could impact US defense policy. Military analysts are calling 2022 a “pivotal year” for space security, according to Gould, sue to Russia’s use of counterspace capabilities.

Russia is developing ground electronic warfare and directed energy weapons to counter western on-orbit assets, according to Courtney Albon of Defense News. She points out that the intelligence community’s 2022 Annual Threat Assessment predicts “Russia [will] continue to train its military space elements and field new antisatellite weapons to disrupt and degrade US and allied space capabilities, and it is developing, testing, and fielding an array of nondestructive and destructive counterspace weapons — including jamming and cyberspace capabilities, directed energy weapons, on-orbit capabilities, and ground-based ASAT capabilities — to target US and allied satellites,” according to this year’s assessment. To date, DOD has not release publicly evidence confirming Russia’s capabilities although senior Pentagon officials have confirmed tests took place. “Clearly the Russians and Chinese are trying to develop systems to get around the missile defense systems the U.S. has been developing,” said Kaitlyn Johnson, deputy director of the Aerospace Security Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. She added that “It’s hard to evaluate what that is from the public side of things, what that’s entailed. I imagine that’s what this meeting is about.”

The meeting comes as a surprise to many in the defense community because the US Government is starting to make public its assessment of the potential Russian threat. Secure World Foundation’s Brian Weeden, a former Air Force space operations officer, said he finds it “interesting, because while Russia and China have been worried about the US developing space-to-ground weapons for decades, the US has during the same time resisted any serious discussions or proposals, saying that these are not real threats.” The November 21, 2021 Russian conducted, direct-ascent hit-to-kill anti-satellite (ASAT) test served in part as a wake up call for the defense community. While Russian military leaders claim their test is to restore strategic stability, US Space Command commander Army Gen. James Dickinson at the time said that Russia is “deploying capabilities to actively deny access to and use of space by the United States and its allies.” 

He further notes that Russia’s counterspace weapons systems undermines strategic stability, in complete contradiction to the Russian claims. The Arms Control Association adds that “Russian military literature is replete with discussions about how these high-precision aerospace weapons are changing the nature of warfare. Russians argue that, in past wars, the main burden of any confrontation rested on ground forces tasked to breach the enemy’s forward defense and enter the adversary’s territory to occupy it. Future wars, they argue, will not be conducted using the massing of armed troops. Instead, their opening salvo will involve massive air missile strikes at targets throughout the adversary’s territory.”  The Pentagon appears to be considering that Putin’s war in Ukraine may be one of the last for traditional Russian ground forces.

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.

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Loyalty Oaths are Back Again

Don’t throw the past away
You might need it some rainy day
Dreams can come true again
When everything old is new again

Lyrics by Peter Allen, 1974 

Some readers may be old enough to remember the so-called “witch hunt” of Communist party members and sympathizers during the 1950s.  In particular, Senator Joseph McCarthy (R-WI) is best remembered for claiming in 1950 that he had “a list of known Communists still working in the Department of State…(w)hen McCarthy became chairman of the Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations in 1953, he launched a series of investigations into alleged subversion and espionage.”

“A special subcommittee investigated McCarthy’s charges and rejected them as ‘a fraud and a hoax.'” Further, “(i)n 1954 a confrontation with the army led to the nationally televised Army-McCarthy hearings, which tarnished McCarthy’s public image, undermined his charges, and prompted his censure by the U.S. Senate.”  

It has been dogma for many years that “McCarthyism” and the “Red Scare” of the 1950s led to the blacklisting of many innocent government workers, screenwriters and other citizens. “liberals and leftists held the high ground in the dispute over whether a communist conspiracy actually existed in the United States or was simply a by-product of ‘the paranoid style in American politics’…(t)here were rancorous divisions on the liberal-left in the 1950s over who was a spy and who was an accused innocent, who was a secret communist political operative and who was a straightforward fighter for social justice…In the upmarket universities and other places where the dominant form of polite liberalism thrived, the accusers, who had named names and had pointed out the communist spies, were scorned as despicable vermin. Among more mainstream scholars…the forces of domestic anti-communism were described largely as manifestations of social underdevelopment and popular irrationality, not legitimate concern.”  

In more recent years, it has been discovered that even a “paranoid” like Senator McCarthy had real enemies.  “In the 1940s, the (National Security Agency) NSA had a top-secret program called Venona which intercepted (and much later decoded) messages between Moscow and its American agents. The recent publication of a batch of Venona transcripts gives evidence that the Roosevelt and Truman administrations were rife with communist spies and political operatives who reported, directly or indirectly, to the Soviet government, much as their anti-communist opponents charged. The Age of McCarthyism, it turns out, was not the simple witch hunt of the innocent by the malevolent as two generations of high school and college students have been taught.” 

Communist influence and subversion must have been a concern for the Truman Administration even before Senator McCarthy and his sensational allegations.  In 1947, President Truman signed Executive Order 9835, which required “a loyalty investigation of every person entering the…employment of any department or agency of the executive branch of the Federal Government,” and that “each department or agency shall appoint one or more loyalty boards…for the purpose of hearing loyalty cases arising within such department or agency and making recommendations with respect to the removal of any officer or employee of such department or agency on grounds relating to loyalty.”  

While Executive Order 9835 did not specifically require the signing of a “loyalty oath,” “In 1950, the California State Legislature enacted the Levering Act, requiring oaths of loyalty from all its employees.  The loyalty oath was suggested by Assemblyman Harold Levering.  It required all state employees to swear that they did not belong to or support any organization which wished to overthrow the state or federal government through the use of force or violence…it was aimed specifically at members of the Communist Party.”    Not to be undone, in 1949 the University of California instituted its own “Loyalty Oath,” an employment requirement that continues to the present time. 

The Oath was met with resistance by some faculty members, with non-signers at Berkeley organising under the leadership of Professors Edward Tolman and Frank Newman in the first half of 1950…(f)ollowing a series of standoffs, deadline deferrals, and an ultimatum…(o)n June 23rd, 1950, the Board of Regents voted to fire 157 employees, both academic and non-academic, for their refusal to sign the Oath.  This number was soon reduced to 31, as many decided to sign the Oath after the Regents made their tenacity clear…” 

In 1949, the idea that academics should be forced to sign an oath of loyalty to the Constitution, and vow not to support the overthrown of the government, was met with general outrage and derision.  The President of Yale University, Charles Seymour, said that “(a)ny suggestion that we should employ here a procedure comparable to that required by the necessities of secret government work, and investigate the loyalty of our staff is utterly repugnant to my concept of a university.”  Likewise, the President of Smith College, Herbert Davis, said “Smith College has always welcomed diversity of opinion and has never been frightened by independent thinking on the part of its faculty or students. . . . I do not fear the influence of any extreme opinions in the academic world as much as I fear the attempt to stifle them and limit freedom of debate. .”

At that time, a Senior Member of Harvard, Grenville Clark, was quoted as saying “(Harvard) believes that the members of the faculties, in their capacity as citizens, have the same rights to express themselves as other citizens, and that those rights should not be restricted by the University by trying to keep `watch’ on professors or otherwise. . .”  Then there was the Chancellor of the University of Chicago, Robert M. Hutchins, who said “(i)f we apply any other test than competence in determining the qualifications of teachers, we shall find that pressures and prejudice will determine them, and today in many places, and if not today it may happen tomorrow, anti-Catholic or anti-Jewish campaigns may mean that teachers who belong to those churches will not be able to practice their professions. . .”  

Let us fast forward 73 years to the present day.  Are the leaders of the academic community still opposed to the concept of loyalty oaths?

The University of California has become “increasingly obsessed with diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI), they have used diversity statement requirements in increasingly invasive ways. Diversity statements at some UC schools are the first thing a search committee reviews. These diversity statements must be evaluated by top-down rigid rubrics. And if a candidate does not achieve a sufficiently high score, then that candidate is automatically eliminated from consideration. Diversity statements for many applicants are not just an additional factor — they are the only factor. At UC Berkeley, for instance, 76 percent of applicants were eliminated without considering the rest of their application… a written assessment of a prospective hire’s contributions to diversity will become a requirement. And within the next two years, these statements will be required not just of future hires but of all current faculty when they are evaluated for potential promotion, tenure, or pay increase.” 

UC is also “the first college system to become a charter member of an American Association for the Advancement of Science initiative aimed at systemically improving diversity, equity, and inclusion in the sciences…(u)nder the STEMM Equity Achievement (SEA) Change, participants will conduct in-depth data collection and self-assessments to identify DEI barrier for students, faculty, and staff members…(p)articipants must create a plan to address any equity issues discovered after conducting a self-assessment.” 

California is not the only state with a University dedicated to enforcing diversity.  At Indiana University, “(a) primary tool is to require all new faculty to fill out a ‘diversity statement.’ Candidates for faculty positions are required to describe exactly what they have done in their careers to support the goal of ‘equity’ especially combined with the undefined words ‘diversity’ and ‘inclusion.’ Administrators now carefully comb through these statements to determine if a candidate supports the goals of diversity, inclusion and equity. If they are not sufficiently supportive of, or heaven forbid, are opposed to, these goals they will not be interviewed.” 

But not all College Professors are onboard with this new emphasis on diversity.  “Abigail Thompson, chair of University of California Davis’s math department, opposes diversity statements in California because they are inevitably political. She observes that politics reflects how you believe society should be organized. Her view…is that Americans should aspire to treat every person as a unique individual, not as a representative of their gender or their ethnic group. In contrast, a diversity statement is a loyalty oath to a political view that celebrates identity politics.”  

But Professor Thompson’s view is decidedly in the minority.  In fact, “(a) new report from the American Enterprise Institute found that nearly 20 percent of university faculty job listings require a pledge of support for diversity. ‘Across all 999 jobs [reviewed by the think tank], we find that 19 percent require diversity statements, while 68 percent include the terms ‘diversity’ or ‘diverse’ in some fashion, often as a way of describing the university environment,’ the report said.”  

As described by George Leef in Forbes, “instead of having to pledge support for America in its battle against communism, the new pledge is support to the ‘diversity’ agenda in its battle against a color-blind nation where people are evaluated on their own merits rather than group membership… (t)he diversity statement has a purpose. That purpose, writes…Professor Bruce Gilley of Portland State University, is to weed out non-leftist scholars.  At many universities, he explains, there is an unspoken ideology that ’emphasizes group identity, an assumption of group victimization, and a claim for group based entitlements.’ On the other hand, ‘Classical liberal approaches that emphasize the pluralism of a free society, the universalism of human experience, and the importance of equality before the law have been regarded as invalid.'” 

Just like President Truman, President Biden has issued his own Executive Order to insure loyalty – to diversity.  On his first day in office, Joe Biden stated that “(i)t is…the policy of my Administration that the Federal Government should pursue a comprehensive approach to advancing equity for all, including people of color and others who have been historically underserved, marginalized, and adversely affected by persistent poverty and inequality.  Affirmatively advancing equity, civil rights, racial justice, and equal opportunity is the responsibility of the whole of our Government.  Because advancing equity requires a systematic approach to embedding fairness in decision-making processes, executive departments and agencies (agencies) must recognize and work to redress inequities in their policies and programs that serve as barriers to equal opportunity.”  Further, much like Truman’s “loyalty boards,” Biden’s Executive Order requires “(t)he head of each agency, or designee, shall…select certain of the agency’s programs and policies for a review that will assess whether underserved communities and their members face systemic barriers in accessing benefits and opportunities available pursuant to those policies and programs.”  

In keeping with the spirit of Biden’s Executive Order, the “Task Force One Navy” “recently made diversity-related recommendations that include de-emphasizing standardized academic tests when evaluating Navy recruits and renaming ships and other assets with ‘problematic’ names.”  The Task Force also “included a pledge for its own members ‘to advocate for and acknowledge all lived experiences and intersectional identities of every Sailor in the Navy.'” The Task Force took pains to explain this was a pledge the members of the Task Force took themselves, not something they were recommending for service members.  

Nevertheless, there would appear to be very little difference in intent between the use of loyalty pledges in the 1940s and 1950s, and the Diversity “statements” employed today.  But while the “classical liberals” of more than 70 years ago were vehemently opposed to the use of loyalty oaths to fight communist infiltration of our government and universities, the “woke leftist” of today is more than happy to pledge allegiance to diversity – except, of course, for diversity of thought.

What can a University Professor or government employee do to avoid making a “Diversity Statement?”  George Leef, writing in Forbes has one potential answer:

“Perhaps diversity statements can be challenged on First Amendment grounds. In a famous rebuke to ideology intruding on education, the Supreme Court held in the 1943 case West Virginia Board of Education v. Barnettethat the state could not penalize Jehovah’s Witness students for failure to recite the Pledge of Allegiance. Justice Jackson’s majority opinion speaks to the same issues as are raised by mandatory diversity statements.

He wrote, “Struggles to coerce uniformity of sentiment in support of some end thought essential to their time and country have been waged by many good, as well as evil men…. It seems trite but necessary to say that the First Amendment to our Constitution was designed to avoid these ends by avoiding these beginnings…. If there is any fixed star in our constitutional constellation, it is that no official, high or petty, can prescribe what shall be orthodox in politics, nationalism, religion, or other matters of opinion, or force citizens to confess by word or act their faith therein.

Judge Wilson served on the bench in NYC.

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Quick Analysis

China Manipulates Global Media

The People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) ruling Chinese Communist Party, which operates concentration camps on a scale not seen since the Nazi regime, is seeking to manipulate international media to hide its crimes against humanity.

The victims are predominantly Muslim Uyghurs and members of other ethnic and religious minority groups in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region.

The news should not be startling. For some time, China has sought to influence what people around the world see, read and hear about the totalitarian tactics of its rulers. In addition to the methods outlined in a recent American government report, it has sought to use its financial muscle to portray a false image of itself.  A Heritage report quotes Mike Gonzalez’s warning that “American audiences are being submitted to censorship, not our own censorship, but a foreign power’s censorship, and a Communist Party censorship. But, we get shown a very benign view of China, in which China is a normal country, no different from Paris, or Britain, or Germany. That is not the case obviously. If you speak against the government in Germany, nothing happens to you. If you speak against the government in China, they’ll throw you in jail.”

According to the newly released U.S. State Department study, PRC-directed and -affiliated actors lead a coordinated effort to amplify Beijing’s preferred narratives on Xinjiang, to drown out and marginalize narratives that are critical of the People’s Republic of China PRC’s repression of Uyghurs, and to harass those critical of the PRC.

In addition to spreading false information, the tactics include flooding the international information environment to limit access to content that contradicts Beijing’s official line, and by creating an artificial appearance of support for PRC policies. Messengers use sophisticated A.I. -generated images to create the appearance of authenticity of fake user profiles.  The PRC works to silence dissent by engaging in digital transnational repression, trolling, and cyberbullying. It floods conversations to drown out messages it perceives as unfavorable to its interests on search engines  and social media feeds, and to amplify Beijing’s preferred narratives on its treatment of Uyghurs.  Pro-PRC stakeholders flood information ecosystems with counternarratives, conspiracy theories, and unrelated news items to suppress narratives detailing PRC authorities’ atrocities in Xinjiang. Government social media accounts, PRC-affiliated media, private accounts, and bot clusters, likely all directed by PRC authorities, assist in this effort.

The PRC engages in a tactic decribed as “astroturfing ,” which is a coordinated campaign of inauthentic posts to create the illusion of widespread grassroots support for a policy, individual, or viewpoint, when no such widespread support exists.  Similar to flooding, the PRC uses astroturfing to inundate the information space with “positive stories ” about Xinjiang and the Uyghur population, including manufactured depictions of Uyghurs living “simple happy lives,” as well as posts emphasizing the purported economic gains that the PRC’s policies have brought to Xinjiang.  In mid-2021, more than 300 pro-PRC inauthentic accounts posted thousands of videos of Uyghurs seeming to deny abuse in the region and claiming they were “very free.” These videos claimed to show widespread disagreement throughout Xinjiang with claims in international media that Uyghurs were oppressed.  However, according to the New York Times  and ProPublica , propaganda officials in Xinjiang created most of these videos, which first appeared on PRC-based platforms and then spread to YouTube and Twitter, in order to manipulate public opinion.

The Chinese Communist Party is also engaging in false and misleading tactics against its own population. Radio Free Asia reports that Beijing is stepping up propaganda and censorship efforts ahead of its 20th national congress, “tightening control of domestic internet users and spreading its official narrative overseas. The country’s powerful Cyberspace Administration said it had recently shut down 1.34 billion social media accounts and deleted 22 million posts. Officials told a news conference they had also investigated more than five million accounts delivering paid comments, banning some 450,000 chat groups and forums.”

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ARTEMIS PREPARED TO LAUNCH

The US space agency has spent a long time designing, developing, building, and testing the Space Launch System rocket. When NASA created the rocket program in 2010, US legislators said the SLS booster should be ready to launch in 2016.

Of course, that launch target and many others have come and gone, in part due to budget cuts during the Obama Administration/ But now, after more than a decade and more than $20 billion in funding, NASA and its litany of contractors are very close to declaring the 111-meter tall rocket ready for its debut launch.

On June 20, NASA successfully counted the rocket down to T-29 seconds during a pre-launch fueling test. Although they did not reach T-9 seconds, as was the original goal, the agency’s engineers collected enough data to satisfy the requisite information to proceed toward a launch.

Inside the Vehicle Assembly Building at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida, technicians continue to prepare the Space Launch System rocket and Orion spacecraft for Artemis I.  

During work to repair the source of a hydrogen leak, engineers identified a loose fitting on the inside wall of the rocket’s engine section, where the quick disconnect for the liquid hydrogen umbilical attaches. The component, called a “collet,” is a fist-sized ring that guides the quick disconnect during assembly operations. Teams will repair the collet by entering the engine section in parallel with other planned work for launch preparations. Technicians have replaced the seals on the quick disconnect of the tail service mast umbilical and will reattach the umbilical plate once the loose collet is addressed.  

AS THIS ARTICLE WENT TO PRESS THIS MORNING, NASA WAS PREPARING TO LAUNCH ARTEMIS.

Technicians continue work associated with battery activations, and plan to turn on the core stage batteries this weekend, before they are installed on the rocket. Next up, teams will start the flight termination systems operations, which include removing the core stage and booster safe and arm devices for calibration and removing and replacing the command receiver decoders with the flight units. The safe and arm devices are a manual mechanism that put the flight termination system in either a “safe” or “arm” configuration while the command receiver decoders receive and decode the command on the rocket if the system is activated. 

Meanwhile on the Orion spacecraft, teams installed a technology demonstration that will test digital assistance and video collaboration in deep space. Engineers are also conducting powered testing on the crew module and European service module heaters and sensors.  

Teams have identified placeholder dates for potential launch opportunities. They include: 

  • Aug. 29 at 8:33 a.m. EDT (Two-hour launch window); Landing Oct. 10 
    • Sept. 2 at 12:48 p.m. (Two-hour launch window); Landing Oct. 11 
    • Sept. 5 at 5:12 p.m. (90-minute launch window); Landing Oct. 17 

Technicians now are testing the newly replaced seals on the quick disconnect of the tail service mast umbilical to ensure there are no additional leaks. The seals were replaced to address a hydrogen leak during the final wet dress rehearsal in June. Following testing, teams will complete closeouts to ready that section for flight.  

Engineers are also finishing installation of the flight batteries. Teams installed the batteries for the solid rocket boosters and interim cryogenic propulsion stage this week and will install the core stage batteries next week.  

On Orion, technicians installed Commander Moonikin Campos, who is one of three “passengers” flying aboard Orion to test the spacecraft’s systems.  Commander Campos’s crew mates, Helga and Zohar, will be installed in the coming weeks.