Author: Frank V. Vernuccio, Jr.

After the 9-11 attacks the United States hardened primary targets inside the country, followed by increasing protection for secondary ones. In the global environment today governments and private risk analysts spend a lot of time discussing relations and threats among the great powers, but there are secondary areas that are also critical and in need of attention. These are the relationships among the peripheral states that strategically sit at the edge of trade routes and are almost as important as the major powers themselves. They tend to possess a disproportionately small share of the wealth of core states such as China, Russia, the US and West Europe, and have weaker political institutions that can subject them to undue foreign influences. 

Kyrgyzstan is such a peripheral state located on the shortest route connecting China to Central Asia, and beyond that, to the Middle East and Europe. The name of its president, Sadyr Japarov, like the country is not familiar to most westerners. He wants to change that now. Akipress Press reports that Japarov traveled to Beijing for meetings from February 3-6 with leaders from several other Central Asian peripheral states. They negotiated an agreement with China to improve cooperation on infrastructure and transit development. Japarov expects it to result in the start of construction of its part of the strategic China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway line by the end of this year. The agreement follows the September 14 signing of an earlier document in which China agreed to fund and conduct a railway feasibility study. 

During his election campaign in January 2022, Japarov called for nationalizing the Kumtor mine, one of the largest gold mines in the world; settling border disputes with neighboring Uzbekistan and Tajikistan; and completing the China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway as his top foreign policy priorities, according to Fozil Mashrad of the Jamestown Foundation. To date, he has made progress on all his objectives. Early last year, the “Kyrgyzstani government reached a formal settlement with Canadian mining company Centerra over the nationalization of Kumtor, which had been bogged down in corruption and environmental disputes for more than two decades. Full control of the mine and its gold export revenues will significantly increase the country’s economic and financial independence,” notes Mashrad. Earlier this year, during Uzbekistani President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s state visit to Bishkek, both leaders made progress toward the ratification of a historic border demarcation agreement between the two neighbors. The relationship, now considered a comprehensive strategic partnership, was once feared as potentially conflict-prone territory by the governments of Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. 

That leaves Japarov free to pursue Chinese help in building the railway network. Eurasianet reports it is believed that China, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan have settled all technical issues related to the construction of the railway line, including considerations on the railway’s route inside Kyrgyzstani territory and the size of the railway track gauge. These represent major wins for China in this peripheral region. It leaves only the funding mechanism in question. It’s an area in which China is eager to “help.”  Mashrad says that Chinese engineers have already set up offices in Bishkek and are active on the ground.  Railway construction can begin after the feasibility study is completed in June. He adds that “Once the railway line is completed, it will not only bring hundreds of millions in transit revenue to Kyrgyzstan but will also turn the country from landlocked to land-linked, connecting the East with the West.” 

Strategically this secures Kyrgyzstan as a critical link in China’s transportation supply line to the Middle East and Europe, and redefines and expands Bishkek’s geopolitical power not only in Central Asia but also throughout wider Eurasia. Japarov is not stopping with the railway. He is scheduled to travel to Iran and Pakistan later this year to discuss potential regional transit corridors links connecting Kyrgyzstan to seaports for global maritime trade. 

As an offer of goodwill Iranian authorities have allocated a plot of land at the Port of Bandar Abbas for Kyrgyzstan and pledged to share its scientific and technological achievements and expertise. While at first trade may sound positive, Tehran includes in this “sharing” knowledge of advanced military technologies that could upset the fragile balance among the Central Asian states. One online newspaper, 24.kg, reported in February that both Tehran and Islamabad are “supplying various military equipment and arms, including drones, to Tajikistan, currently Kyrgyzstan’s regional rival.” 

The peripheral states of Central Asia have long desired to connect the Iran’s and Pakistan’s seaports. The new northern railway networks linking the region are of increasing significance to Russia as they pass through Russian territory. The situation in the Central Asian states is stable at the moment and marks progress toward the goals of Kyrgyzstan’s president. The area, however, remains a potential flashpoint as trade and potentially military equipment will be able to move quickly from East to West. Japarov is in position to achieve his foreign policy goals and for Kyrgyzstan to grab the attention of the major powers. Hopefully, that occurs before something goes astray.

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.

Illustration: Pixabay

China’s Communist Party ended its annual meeting of the National People’s Congress (NPC) on Monday. The rubber stamp event might not make exciting front-page news, but there are a number of China-related events this week that are disconcerting given that they expose Beijing’s reach directly in the corridors of power in Washington, DC. 

The goal of the NPC is to set policy direction and lay out the economic agenda for the coming year. This session is the first after last autumn’s week-long, 20th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, which is held every five years. At the October meeting President Xi Jinping secured his third five-year term as party general secretary. This week’s meeting is significant in that, with Xi in total control, there were a number of leadership statements indicating the direction in which he intends to take the country, the restructuring of state institutions, who is part of the new leadership, and the general tone of policy for the coming 12 months. Xi is not backing down from the CCP’s aggressive policies. It also appears willing to use any means necessary to achieve them, including influence operations extending into the highest levels of power in the American government.

Xi Jinping has consolidated power at a level unprecedented since Chairman Mao held office and is now the country’s longest serving president since its founding in 1949. He exudes confidence, acts boldly, and plans for long-term victories. Mao Ning, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs Spokesperson, says that the country “will continue to view and develop China-US relations in accordance with the principles of peaceful coexistence, mutual respect, and win-win cooperation.” The reality is quite different. China’s foreign  influence operations are aggressive and have tenacles that appear to extend into the White House. 

This week the investigative arm of an American news organization, the Daily Caller, reported that “The Hong Kong company which wired over $3 million bound for Biden family associates in 2017, appears to have been run by a member of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) at the time of the transfer.” A US House Oversight Committee memorandum revealed on Thursday that one month after then Vice President Biden left office, China’s State Energy HK Limited wired the $3 million to Robinson Walker, LLC. That company is run by “Biden family associate” John Robinson Walker, according to US government memorandum. An official Chinee government website named Lei Donghui, chairman and executive director of State Energy HK Limited, as a long-standing member of the Chinese Communist Party. As recently as this month Lei was pictured on Twitter at a company meeting. 

“From State Energy HK Limited’s $3 million transfer, Robinson Walker, LLC subsequently distributed $1,065,692 in ‘incremental payments over a period of approximately three months’ to as many as four Biden family members, according to the memorandum,” says investigative reporter Philip Lenczycki. He adds that the funds were transferred to “Hallie Biden, James Brian Biden Sr. (James Biden), Robert Hunter Biden (Hunter Biden) and an ‘unknown bank account identified as ‘Biden,’” according to the committee’s memorandum. IT also says additional payments went to Biden family companies, including Owasco PC, JBBSR Inc and RSTP II, LLC. Lenczycki adds that “On March 2, 2017, Robinson Walker, LLC sent another $1,065,000 from State Energy HK Limited’s $3 million transfer to the European Energy and Infrastructure Group in Abu Dhabi, a   self-styled “advisory organization,” according to the memorandum. He noted that James Gilliar, a “business partner of Hunter Biden,” is allegedly “associated” with EEIG, according to the committee.

At this week’s NPC meeting, Xi cast blame on the United States for trying to “contain and suppress” China, although the Biden Administration has not taken very effective or strong steps to stop Chinese aggressive moves overseas. At a news conference following the NPC, Qin Gang, China’s Foreign Minister warned of “confrontation and conflict.” This appears to be the first time China directly named the United States. It may be time to find those in Washington willing to create a Great Wall of Capitalism to preserve our way of life.

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.

We live in a world that neorealists would argue requires hegemony as a necessary and sufficient condition for a stable world order and a peaceful international system. The collapse of the Soviet Union ended those conditions present during the Cold War era. It also ended 45 years of bipolar stability. With the onset of the Russian war in Ukraine the world is quietly edging back from tripolarity towards a bipolar international system. Colin Clarke and Mollie Saltskog, writing in Defense One, say that the Russian war has “accelerated” the process. Prior to February 2022, Russia, China, and the United States composed the three centers of military, political, and economic power in the world.

Over the last 12 months Russia has devolved into a far less powerful state. The realm of strategic competition for hegemonic status resides today only in the struggle between Washington and Beijing. A new bipolar balance is rapidly evolving between the two capitals over the last year. 

Russian war casualties last year topped an estimated 200,000 troops killed and are mounting daily. The Wagner Group, Putin’s mercenary force, has resorted to recruiting soldiers in prisons, jails, and mental hospitals. Russia’s precision strike munitions and artillery shells are approaching depletion levels not seen in decades. Thousands of pieces of the country’s armored equipment, fighter jets, and helicopters have been destroyed by Ukrainian forces. A war Putin once proclaimed as a short, special military operation is moving into its second year without any indication of slowing, or ending, in 2023. 

Despite international condemnation from the West and major economic sanctions, Moscow continues to commit crimes against humanity. It is making Chinese leader Xi Jinping nervous. As Moscow grows weaker and more isolated from the world community, and Putin becomes more desperate in his threats and actions, China is left as one of Russia’s few remaining partners. The war is forging a closer Sino-Russian relationship built on convenience. Xi recognizes it could spill over into economic sanctions against China. Beijing already has supplied crucial dual-use technology to Russia, shipping navigation equipment, jamming technology, and jet-fighter parts, according to Clarke and Saltskog. 

Despite US warnings, China is supplying computer chips, smart phones, and satellite imagery to Russia’s Wagner Group. US intelligence officials report that China is now considering sending Moscow ammunition and artillery. Secretary of State Antony Blinken calls it a “serious problem” as Xi Jinping publicly promised the Russian president that the partnership comes with “no limits.”

As Putin passes the one-year mark he is anxious to show he remains a major player with a seat at the table and that he has made significant progress in Ukraine. He can’t easily do so without China’s military aid. Senator Lindsey Graham recently classified Putin’s attempt to jump on the China gravy train as “dumber than dirt.” Although China may pull back and not openly supply Putin with the arms he needs, it still is strong indicator of Russia’s position as the weaker, junior state. Historically, conflict between China and the Soviet Union centered on the disagreement over which country was leader of the communist world. 

It is evident today that Moscow is no longer the frontrunner state. With Putin relegated to a deferential role, Xi Jinping is using his elevated status to dictate terms for oil and gas deals that strategically diversify China’s critical energy supply chain. Russian energy from its Far Eastern region runs through two main pipelines directly into China. Beijing’s help in building and maintaining the Power of Siberia pipeline requires large numbers of Chinese citizens to live and work inside the sparsely populated Far Eastern Russian territory, once owned by China. Putin appears unnerved about sinicization of the area but there is little he can do as the junior partner. Clarke and Saltzkog point out that that the “Kremlin has instituted several policies in order to encourage Russians to move to the Russian Far East, primarily out of fear of Chinese nationals and companies populating the mineral-rich region.” It is a complicated relationship and one in which Putin is no longer able to dictate terms to China. 

In a recent position paper, officials in Beijing attempted to walk a middle path in its relations with Russia. Xi Jinping intends to remake the world order to favor Beijing’s concept of how the international system should run. He will likely decide crossing the “red line” to supply Russia overtly with lethal aid, is too high a price to pay. Xi recognizes that potential economic sanctions and diplomatic measures instituted by the West could curtail China’s rise to full hegemon status.

As the dominant partner in the relationship Beijing can and does dictate terms to Moscow. In the coming year as the world continues to enter into a new bipolar era, it hopefully will see a return to some semblance of order without major conflict. What political scientists have not considered in great depth is that, for the first time in modern history, one of the two hegemonic states will not be in located in the West or practice Western values. It may require new theory to explain ongoing instability in a bipolar world if China decides to create a new rulebook.   

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.

Across the nation, a significant number of horrifying crimes, including multiple homicides, attacks on police officers, and random assaults have occurred using knives, boxcutters, hammers and other blunt instruments. According to FBI Statistics, the number of murders increased from 22,000 in 2020 to 22,900 in 2021. This constitutes an increase of 4.3% on top of the 29.4% increase in 2020.

That fact should deeply concern everyone who believes that our streets, public transportation facilities, and homes should not resemble a Mad Max movie.

The growth in crime parallels the implementation of lax policies in terms of punishment. Jim Quinn, writing in the New York Post,   reports: “It should be a simple thing to understand: If you have more criminals on the street, you have more crime. But Gov. Kathy Hochul and our political leaders keep saying there is not enough data to show that bail reform has been a failure. Really? In 2019, under the “old” bail laws, New York City’s crime rate fell for the 27th year in a row. Under the new bail laws, by Jan. 1, 2020, more than 2,000 career criminal repeat offenders were released from city jails. They had an average of 12 prior arrests and seven prior convictions. Just 2½ months later, before COVID, city crime rose 34% over the same period in 2019. What a surprise! The city released almost every single defendant charged with drug dealing, car theft, burglary, street theft, and shoplifting from jail, and within weeks crime went up by double digits for the first time in almost three decades.”

Ignoring the devastating impact of progressive policies on crime is only part of the faulty response. The other portion is to downplay the crimes, and the criminals themselves, and blame the drastic statistics on the weapons, not the perpetrators.  Following every report of a dramatic crime is an almost ritualistic demand for further curbs on the Second Amendment.

That reveals a key reason why Progressive district attorneys and politicians fail to respond appropriately to the upswing in crime.  To them, crime isn’t the important issue.  Reducing or eliminating the right to bear arms is.

Placing fighting crime behind the ideological goal of eliminating Second Amendment Rights is both counterproductive and irrational. Gun laws.com notes: “There is evidence indicating that increased prevalence of guns leads to decreased crime rates, just as there are many who claim that greater restrictive measures on the sale of guns lead to decreased crime rates. 

Lawrence Reed, in a FEE article asks “How many lives are actually saved by gun ownership? This is a supremely important question that the grandstanders and ideologues usually—and conveniently—ignore… Guns prevent an estimated 2.5 million crimes a year, or 6,849 every day. Most often, the gun is never fired, and no blood (including the criminal’s) is shed.

• Every year, 400,000 life-threatening violent crimes are prevented using firearms.
• 60 percent of convicted felons admitted that they avoided committing crimes when they knew the victim was armed. Forty percent of convicted felons admitted that they avoided committing crimes when they thought the victim might be armed. 
• Felons report that they avoid entering houses where people are at home because they fear being shot.
• Fewer than 1 percent of firearms are used in the commission of a crime.”

The progressive motivation to enact stricter gun control laws ignores the most salient question: Would those measures be effective in keeping weapons out of the hands of criminals?  Will perpetrators intent on robbing, raping or murdering suddenly turn law abiding and refrain from obtaining weapons? The answer is a resounding no.  The counter argument, that those laws would limit the manufacture and transportation of weapons, is equally foolish.  Take a look at laws prohibiting similar treatment of drugs, measures that have failed miserably for decades.

Illustration: Pixabay

Let us pause a minute and reflect on a key  fact – there is a doctor who performed surgery to remove the healthy breasts of a 13 year old girl, a doctor who apparently still has a license to practice medicine.

During her interview, “Cole told…Tucker Carlson she is ‘devastated’ at the loss of her breasts and has trouble coping.  ‘As an adult, I will never be able to breast-feed whatever children I will have. I don’t even know if, because I was put on puberty blockers and testosterone at only 13 years old, I don’t know if I’ll be able to conceive a child naturally…I made an adult decision as a child.'” 

In a Notice of Intent to Sue letter dated November 9, 2022, Cole’s lawyers outlined their allegations against the Kaiser Foundation Hospital and the doctors who treated this young woman’s “gender dysphoria”; “Defendants coerced Chloe and her parents to undergo what amounted to a medical experiment by propagating two lies. First, Defendants falsely informed Chloe and her parents that Chloe’s gender dysphoria would not resolve unless Chloe socially and medical transitioned to appear more like a male. Second, Defendants also falsely informed Chloe and her parents that Chloe was at a high risk for suicide, unless she socially and medically transitioned to appear more like a male…Both of these statements were false..”

As Cole’s lawyer’s explain, “First, the vast majority of childhood gender dysphoria cases resolve by the time the child reaches adulthood, with the patient’s self-perception reverting back to align with their biological sex. In such situations, the dysphoria resolves without any cross-sex chemical or surgical interventions…Defendants never once informed Chloe of the possibility, indeed the high likelihood, that her gender dysphoria would resolve, without cross-sex treatment, by the time she reached adulthood.”

Second, “a long-term follow-up population-based study…found that gender dysphoric individuals who undergo sex reassignment continue to have considerably higher risks for mortality, suicidal behavior, and psychiatric morbidity as compared with the general population. In other words, in a large number of cases, suicidality and psychiatric issues are not resolved by sex reassignment…Defendants intentionally obscured these facts and defrauded Chloe and her parents in order to perform what amounted to a lucrative transgender medical experiment on Chloe.”

The Notice also states that “it is important to note that the relevant Kaiser…facilities and institutions where Chloe received treatment have failed to enact policies and procedures preventing the risky, inadequately studied, and essentially experimental treatment that occurred in Chloe’s case. Indeed, to the contrary, the facilities and institutions actively promote, encourage, and advertise the availability of these treatments on minors, which represents an additional clear and egregious breach of the standard of care in this case.”  Further, “(r)ecommending, supervising, prescribing, and advising inadequately studied, off-label, high risk treatments on Chloe, between 13 to 17 amounts to medical experimentation on Chloe, and represents gross negligence and an egregious breach of the standard of care.”  

In any medical malpractice case, one issue is whether or not the patient gave consent to the treatment, and “assumed the risk” of the procedure.  “Briefly, under the legal doctrine of informed consent, a doctor must provide enough information to help the patient make rational healthcare choices…In trial practice, medical malpractice defense attorneys almost always introduce the informed consent into evidence…The concern, of course, is that a signed document might confuse or prejudice jurors into a belief that the plaintiff was more aware of the potential risks of the intervention than might have been the case…in any case, such consent – even fully and thoughtfully performed – does not acknowledge the acceptance of risk of negligent treatment.” 

Cole’s attorney’s address the issue of consent head-on; “(I)t is quite clear that…the informed consent forms and discussion regarding these treatments were highly deficient from a standard of care perspective and constituted intentional fraudulent concealment… the hormone therapy consent form… fails to meaningfully identify any risks of hormone therapy and puberty blockers…(despite there being) extensive documented known risks of such treatment, none of which were included in the form.”

Further, “(t)he informed consent form for the breast removal surgery identified some basic risks of the surgery, and loss of the ability to breastfeed. However, it failed to disclose the experimental nature of the surgery and the lack of long-term studies for performing this surgery at such an early age as a treatment for ‘gender dysphoria.’”

The Notice continues; “(b)oth consent forms also entirely failed to inform Chloe of the significant probability that her gender dysphoria would resolve by adulthood, resulting in severe regret and harmful physical changes to her body that can never be reversed…Defendants never verbally advised Chloe of this potential risk. To the contrary, Defendants advised Chloe that her gender dysphoria would only resolve if she underwent sex-reassignment hormones and surgery, which proved to be false. This inadequate consent and Defendants’ failure to properly advise Chloe and her parents of the associated risks and the experimental nature of the treatment, represents gross/reckless negligence and is an additional breach of the standard of care.”

Cole’s lawsuit, once brought, could be the turning point for the use of hormone blockers and gender reassignment surgery for minors. “Analysts like Dr. Jay Richards, director of the DeVos Center for Life, Religion and Family at the Heritage Foundation warn, a legal slugfest could be coming to the U.S., as more young people detransition and regret the permanent damage to their bodies. ‘We’re going to have thousands of young people who are de-transitioning, they’re going to be mad at what’s happened and so I honestly think maybe it’s 5 years maybe it’s 10 years, that this is all going to end,'” according to Richards.

For the past seven years, we have watched this horrific trend in child abuse continue and expand.  Rather than deplore the practice, too many in the media have cheered for the mutilation of sexually-confused children.   But minors who underwent these barbaric procedures have now matured, and realized the wrong done to them.  

Legal actions for medical malpractice by detransitioned young people like Chloe Cole may finally bring these medical experiments on impressionable and vulnerable minors to an end. 

Judge Wilson served on the bench in NYC

Illustration: Pixabay

In June of 2016, we first addressed the issue of gender dysphoria for usagovpolicy.com.  At that time, we noted that “(s)tories can be found from those who deeply regret taking a knife to their sexuality.”    As the procedure has become more common, the stories have multiplied.

“New studies are now emerging showing that the ‘detransitioner’ movement is far larger than what is commonly acknowledged, with detransition rates nearing 30% in some instances… thousands of young women and men who once identified as the opposite sex — many of whom attempted a ‘gender transition’ by ingested drugs and undergoing elaborate surgical procedures to impersonate the opposite sex — are now rejecting the transgender identity and are once again embracing their natural sex.” 

In 2016, we also noted that “the majority of (media) coverage given to this issue favors gender reassignment,” and that “those who have undergone sexual reassignment surgery are celebrated.”  In the past seven years, this trend has not changed.  Fox News is one of the few media outlets to cover this issue (besides usagovpolicy.com), giving a voice to those who regret making a decision they were too young to consider knowingly and intelligently.

As reported by Fox, “(a)fter beginning transitioning as a young girl and undergoing a double mastectomy at 18 years old, now 24-year-old Prisha Mosley is detransitioning and speaking out about her struggles… ‘One of the issues I have is the lack of identity,’ Mosley explained. ‘And on top of not having a lot of friends and having issues at home, when I found the trans community and found a new identity and was affirmed…that’s what caused me to transition’…’I was manipulated not only by my trans peers, but by my gender specialist, the person who gave me my letter of recommendation in surgery. It was all sold as like a wonderful thing,’ she said….(m)any of Mosley’s treatments and procedures during her transition are irreversible, including her double mastectomy, also known as top surgery.” 

Those who regret transitioning include KC Miller, who “began taking testosterone at 16 and underwent a double mastectomy only six months after starting the injections. She says that she was introduced to gender ideology through influencers on YouTube. After noticing that the testosterone treatments were causing severe hair loss, she decided to detransition. She now admits that ‘social contagion’ played a role in convincing her to transition. ‘The more detransitioners that speak out, the more that will feel comfortable to come forward,’ Miller says.”

Then there is Daisy Strongin, who “spent seven years from age 15 to 22 attempting to transition from female to male…Strongin began getting testosterone injections and eventually underwent a double mastectomy. Soon, however, she began feeling remorse for her decision. ‘It just got so hard to look in the mirror because I felt more of a disconnect between my mind and my body than I did before,’ she said. ‘I felt like I was in some kind of weird gender purgatory.’ She now rejects gender theory and gender identity, calling it ‘a scam.’ Strongin is now 24 and newly married with an infant son.” 

For the most part, accredited medical professionals continue to treat “gender dysphoria” with hormone blockers and radical surgery, regardless of whether the patient is an adult or a minor.  For instance, the Mayo Clinic, with locations in Arizona, Florida and Minnesota, has “The Transgender and Intersex Specialty Care Clinic (TISCC) (which) provides integrated medical, psychosocial and surgical intervention to individuals with gender dysphoria/incongruence…Treatments offered include…Hormone therapy and monitoring…Gynecological care for transgender men” and “Feminizing surgical procedures” which includes “Top surgery for transgender women,” “Facial feminization” and “Penile inversion vaginoplasty.”  For women who wish to become men, there are “Masculinizing surgical procedures.”  These consist of “Top surgery for transgender men and nonbinary people…Body-contouring procedures (and) Hysterectomy…”

These services appear to be equally available to both minors and adults – including all surgical options.

One detransitioned young person, Chloe Cole, has decided to challenge the medical establishment that encourages hormone blockers and surgery for minors.  “(S)he is suing the doctors who performed the ‘gender-affirming’ surgery because she wants to end the practice. ‘I want to hold the adults that put me in harm’s way accountable because what happened to me is horrible, but it also didn’t only happen to me, that’s the worst part. It’s happening to children all over the U.S., all over the West, and it’s spreading all over the world,’ (Cole) said” in an interview with Tucker Carlson of Fox News.   

Cole “went on puberty blockers and testosterone at just 13 years old. She had been diagnosed with autism and ADHD at age 7 and spent a lot of unsupervised time online, where she was exposed to gender ideology. When she began questioning her gender identity, she was fast-tracked by medical personnel into transitioning, and her parents were pressured to sign off on it. She underwent a double mastectomy at 13 and still suffers medical complications to this day five years later.” 

The article concludes tomorrow

Judge Wilson served on the bench in NYC

Illustration: Pixabay