Author: Daria Novak

Soul and root 灵魂与根 (línghún yǔ gēn) may sound uplifting to some, but for those living in Taiwan it is a source of great concern. The expression, long used by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership to invoke a sense of unity as it relates to China’s cultural heritage, has a more prescriptive intent today. At a Politburo study session in June, President Xi Jinping declared “We must not abandon Marxism as our soul or China’s excellent traditional culture as our root.” Only a year ago, the expression stood only for “cultural heritage.” By this summer the CCP had finished reframing the phrase soul and root and presented it to the nation as the theme of the 102nd anniversary of the founding of the CCP. What has changed over the past year? Soul and Root is now a neonationalist call to the Chinese people to unite Taiwan with the People’s Republic of China. President Xi needs the backing of the populace to force Taiwan under Beijing’s governance and to carry out his vision of remaking the international, rules-based order to favor China’s vision of it place in the world. 

In October, Chinese Air Force fighter jets, bombers, and UAVs penetrated Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over 142 times, with 358 aircraft crossing the median line surrounding Taiwan. Chinese intrusions were not limited to the air, its Navy (PLAN) also sent an aircraft carrier, support, and allied ships through the Bashi Channel into the Pacific. The waterway is located between Taiwan and the Philippines, with Taiwan’s Orchid Island to the north and the Philippine’s Botel Tobago to the south. It is a sensitive region containing numerous underseas communications cables, a maritime commerce route, and a critical channel Taiwan uses for its military ships leaving the South China Sea and entering the Pacific Ocean. Although claimed by both Taiwan and the Philippines, this channel effectively provides the Taiwanese navy the vital strategic depth and operational space it will need in the event of a kinetic battle with China. It also allows Taiwanese submarines to avoid the shallow depths of the East China Sea, which are heavily patrolled by China.   

For Beijing, the region plays an important role in its geopolitical ambitions and serves as a chokepoint that allows China the control essential for operational mobility of its rapidly expanding submarine fleet. As China extends its global power projection, the Bashi Channel has emerged as the center of its Soul and Root appeal. There are many disputed islands in the Channel claimed by China. Any increase in Chinese control of the area could represent a tipping point for Beijing’s economic and security interests, and end in heavily isolating Taiwan from the global economy. East Asian maritime trade depends on the Channel to sustain the current volume and velocity of global trade. Any disruption to the route will increase tensions with China and negatively impact shipping costs and it reverberates down the global supply chain.  

Japan and South Korea depend heavily on the Bashi Channel as a transit route for importing the energy needed to keep their economies running. Any disruption has the potential to spur a global energy crisis. China’s Soul and Root campaign could disrupt the peace and stability in East Asia at a time when the United States is distracted by military crises in other areas of the world. One question many analysts in Washington are discussing this week is, Was this China’s intention all along? With world attention turned toward Russia’s war in Ukraine and now the dire situation in the Middle East, China could use this time to further its global ambitions. 

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.

Illustration: Pixabay

There is an “increased threat” From Russia Against Critical Infrastructure in Finland,” according to a recent Moscow Times headline. With the world closely monitoring events in the Middle East, a serious Scandinavian incident was virtually overlooked by many major Western media outlets. It appears this fall that Putin believes he is free to act out beyond the battlefield in Ukraine. And, he is soliciting help from China, one of Russia’s few allies. On October 8, the Balticconnector natural gas underwater pipeline between Finland and Estonia received significant damage. Preliminary findings from the Finnish National Bureau of Investigation determined that a pipeline leak was likely caused by the Russian oil carrier SGV Flot seemingly in concert with the Chinese-flagged container ship, the Newnew Polar Bear. The Chinese vessel apparently dragged its anchor along the seabed over the 48-mile-long gas pipeline.

Needed repairs are extensive and not expected to be complete until at least April 2024. The Finnish Security and Intelligence Service (SUPO) warned that the suspected sabotage targeting the country’s crucial maritime energy infrastructure, occurred inside its exclusive economic zone. This latest incident raises a question for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Member states. If Russia and its allies continue to destabilize the region, should NATO consider additional protective actions? Both

Finland and Estonia are NATO Member states. The Finnish-Russian bilateral relationship has deteriorated quickly since Finland joined NATO last April after Helsinki ended seven decades of its non-aligned policy.

“Another liquefied natural terminal in Hamina was connected to the grid in 2022 but has very limited capacity… This development along with the original pipeline have become the only viable alternatives to Finland’s import of Russia gas,” according to Mateusz Kubiak of the Jamestown Foundation.

Last week Finnish law enforcement confirmed new evidence linking China to the incident when it found the Newnew Polar Bear’s anchor near the pipeline along with traces of drag marks leading to the nexus of the damage.

The Barents Observer reports this week that the sabotage is complicated by evidence indicating the ultimate owner of the cargo vessel appears to be the Russian-registered company Torgmoll. The publication discovered that new permissions for the Chinese ship to navigate using Russia’s Northern Sea Route were addressed to Torgmoll. Previous permissions were granted to China’s Haian Xin Xin Yang Shipping company. Torgmoll office in both Moscow and Shanghai proport to be developing China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The suspected coordination between China and Russia is a concerning sign of increased coordination of disruptive events against Western states.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg discussed the issue with ministers of defense from each of the Member countries and quickly declared if proven to be sabotage, the alliance should develop a “united and determined response.” NATO is viewing the Russian-Chinese act as part of a larger regional security issue and order increased maritime patrols in the Baltic Sea and flyovers. Kubiak suggests that the final findings of the investigation will likely inform NATO’ s decision to either provide a military response or deescalate the situation. Stoltenberg noted that NATO Member states themselves should individually consider additional protection and monitoring of critical infrastructure in the Baltic Sea region and elsewhere, including natural gas and crude oil import terminals.

“NATO already took the first step in this direction when it announced the creation of a Critical Undersea Infrastructure Coordination Cell at NATO headquarters earlier this year,” according to Kubiak. As the war in Russia drags on and Putin becomes more desperate, analysts expect to see additional sabotage. The Kremlin already is treating Finland as a hostile country. While Finland has a sufficient energy supply to last through the winter months, additional damage to its remaining undersea pipeline would prove disastrous.

The loss of the Balticconector pipeline provides ample evidence that China are Russia are coordinating their anti-Western activities. They are also involved on the periphery of the war in the Middle East. It is possible the conflict there could expand into a proxy war among nuclear armed states, supported by Vladimir Putin and indirectly by Xi Jinping. Both leaders have shown they are willing to set aside differences and work to overturn the rules-based international order.

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.

Photo: Pixabay

The Khalistan movement, demanding an independent Sikh state within India, may seem distant to many Americans. However, it holds significant implications not just for India but for the United States and its global partnerships. Americans should take notice of the Khalistan movement, its historical context, and its potential impact on international relations, especially with a focus on the United States.

The Khalistan movement has its roots in the struggles of Sikhs in India, particularly in Punjab, where they form a majority. Sikhs are a vital part of India’s diverse cultural fabric, comprising just 2% of the country’s 1.4 billion population. However, their demand for Khalistan, an independent Sikh homeland, has resurfaced multiple times, most notably during the violent insurgency of the 1970s and 1980s.

What sets the Khalistan movement apart and makes it relevant to Americans is its historical context. In 1984, the Indian government’s military operation in the Golden Temple, Sikhism’s holiest shrine in Amritsar, caused thousands of Sikh deaths and sent shockwaves through the global Sikh community, including the Sikh diaspora in the United States. This event reshaped the narrative of Sikh identity and ignited the Khalistan cause among Sikhs around the world.

Why should Americans care about a movement rooted in South Asia? The Khalistan movement holds several key implications for the United States:

Diaspora Dynamics: The U.S. is home to a significant Sikh diaspora. Understanding the Khalistan movement is essential for fostering understanding and engagement within this community. Their perspectives and concerns matter in American society.

International Alliances: The United States maintains strategic partnerships worldwide. It is crucial to grasp the complexities of global issues such as the Khalistan movement, as they can affect diplomatic and strategic relations. The recent allegations of Indian government involvement in Canada have caused strains between countries with strong ties to the U.S., such as India, Canada, and Australia.

National Security: The United States’ focus on counterterrorism should extend beyond its borders. The Khalistan movement, when associated with pro-Pakistan and pro-Kashmiri groups, poses potential security threats. Acknowledging these threats can help U.S. law enforcement agencies address them proactively.

Global Context: The world is interconnected, and one nation’s challenges can have a ripple effect. The resurgence of the Khalistan movement and its potential ties to regional dynamics in South Asia could impact global stability and U.S. interests.

The Khalistan movement, rooted in the struggle of Sikhs for an independent homeland, may seem distant to many Americans. However, it carries historical significance and holds implications for the United States in terms of its diaspora, international alliances, national security, and global context. By understanding and engaging with the Khalistan movement, Americans can foster stronger relationships within their diverse communities and navigate complex global challenges more effectively. As the world continues to interconnect, acknowledging the relevance of such movements is vital for U.S. national interests and global stability.

Background: the Sikh nation developed a national consciousness in the 17th century  and established an independent and sovereign state in 1765. the independent and sovereign Sikh state was recognized by other European and Asian states until conquest by the British in 1849. The Sikh nation was the last nation to fall to British conquest in the Indian subcontinent.  the Sikh nation reasserted the independence of its state, known as Khalistan, on October 7, 1987 and formed the Council of Khalistan naming Washington DC-based Dr. Gurmit Singh Aulakh as its President to serve as government pro tem.

Kaitlyn Williams

Illustration: Proposed flag of Khalistan

Halloween isn’t as frightening as it used to be. How can traditional monsters compare to Hamas’ actions in killing infants, China’s growing nuclear arsenal, progressive antisemitism rising to Hitlerian levels, Putin’s atrocities in Ukraine, crime rampaging through American cities?

In 2023, you have to feel sorry for our old friends Dracula, assorted mummies and the Creature from the Black Lagoon.   Don’t let us forget all those witches, either.  Try as they might, they simply can’t conjure up the terror they used to.

After all, those devilish monsters could barely harass a handful of folks on any particular evening.  Some of those goblins and ghouls were restricted to just All Hallows Eve.  What horror could a nibble on the neck from a hungry vampire produce when Hamas is beheading folks on a mass scale every day?

How do you compare the frightening capabilities a misunderstood creature of the night can have to, say, the thought of a terrorist heading in your direction? Or even something as tiny as a China-made COVID germ?

What is really scary, though, isn’t some raging enemy or even a toxic malady.  What is most frightening is the growing inability or unwillingness of our leaders to deal these threats.  Americans used to be a “can do” people.  If something stood in our way, we cut a path through it.  If someone opposed us, we flattened them.  Now we passively tolerate true evil.

Not unlike the insidious infestation of celluloid horror movie terrors in a Hollywood script, we have allowed the very fabric of the American nation to be undermined.  A little over a decade ago, it would have been unimaginable that the First Amendment would have been so seriously disregarded by bureaucrats claiming they had the right to censor the media. A mere decade ago, who would have believed that parents objecting to the rape of their young daughters on school grounds would be labelled as domestic terrorists?

We have had a black president, black supreme court justices, black mayors, governors, senators and congressional representatives. There are laws on the books banning discrimination. We are now led, however, by an administration and media that appears determined to rekindle former hatreds by falsely portraying our society as racist.

Those same hate-mongers eagerly seek to divide the nation along political lines, and utilize the Department of Justice to persecute those who disagree with the current regime. Just as Dracula recoiled from crucifixes, our Justice Department disdains traditional Catholics. 

Who would have believed that neo-Nazi’s on college campuses and on the streets of cities would vigorously support the beheading of Jewish children, the raping of Israeli women, and wholesale slaughter of civilians? Even Hitler attempted to hide his mass murders. Hamas films their actions. Despite that, some of the same publications that ignored the Holocaust are now downplaying those actions.

No one would have believed that any presidential administration would ignore border controls, and allow millions, including military age men, foreign agents, cartel criminals and human traffickers to cross into the United States.

Dr. Frankenstein created his woefully misunderstood reanimated man, but the product of our educational system is far worse.  By replacing facts with propaganda and ignoring or misrepresenting the lessons of history, American educators have developed a generation devoid of an accurate historical perspective and with a contempt for the concept of individual rights and personal responsibility. The manifestation of their creation isn’t a single creature, but a large portion of an entire age group who cannot tolerate opinions other than their own.

This Halloween, the terrors of the creatures of the night are a welcome distraction from the horrors that exist in the real world.

Illustration: Pixabay

The media is scrupulously ignoring how bad the American economy currently is, and the dangerous cliff it is heading towards.

Consider the following quick overview. The federal government has amassed a massive debt of approximately $33 Trillion dollars, significantly higher than the entire U.S. GDP of about $23 trillion.  The Congressional Budget office reports that there was a $1.4 trillion deficit in the first nine months of FY2023 Under Biden’s Watch.  As of July 2023 it costs $726 billion to service the debt, which is 14% of the total federal spending. 

It’s not just Washington. Cities and states are reeling under the increased fiscal burden of feeding, housing, medicating and educating the vast numbers of illegal aliens pouring into their jurisdictions.

American households carry a total of $17.1 trillion in debt as of the second quarter of 2023, and the average household debt is $101,915 as of the end of 2022, according to The Ascent financial web site. . Unfortunately, that doesn’t just represent “good” debt, such as mortgage costs. Annutiy.org reports that “Recently, credit card debt has reached record heights. Since the end of 2021, Americans’ credit card debt has increased by $130 billion. That 15% increase is the largest jump in over 20 years. Many experts believe that recent high interest rates have made it much harder for Americans to pay off their existing credit card debt.”  It’s the first time credit card debt has risen that high.

The New York Federal Reserve found  that “Total household debt rose by $16 billion to reach $17.06 trillion in the second quarter of 2023, according to the latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. Credit card balances saw brisk growth, rising by $45 billion to a series high of $1.03 trillion. Other balances, which include retail credit cards and other consumer loans, and auto loans increased by $15 billion and $20 billion, respectively. “ The average credit card charges average an extraordinary 20.53% interest rate.

The prospects for families to address that debt are dwindling. Prices have risen dramatically since 2021, and inflation continues to grow. The Washington Examiner notes that

“Overall average prices have already increased by 16% since President Joe Biden took office, but the disproportionate growth in essentials, which comprise a greater share of budgets for lower-income households, has meant the least privileged have paid the highest burden. For example, the consumer price index specifically for food is up 19% since January 2021, and electricity prices are up 23%. In the last month alone, food and electricity prices increased by 0.2%. Shelter prices, which increased by 0.3% last month and more than 7% over the past year, have also been a major driver of inflation’s resurgence.”

Supermarket News notes “that The average family in June spent about $973 at the supermarket, up 3.5% from last year. Use of apps that allow shoppers to finance payments surged 40% in the first two months of 2023.” When families must finance the basics of daily life, particularly when there is no relief in sight, that is a recipe for disaster.  Loans must eventually be paid. There is no indication that conditions are moving to a point were payment will be feasible.  This not the same as a house or car that can be repossessed. People will always have to eat.  

The House Budget Committee reports that real median household income declined last year, falling from $76,330 to $74,580 in 2022-dollar terms. To put this in perspective, we haven’t seen this level of decline since the Great Recession of 2008.

Specifically, the report finds: Real median earnings declined by 2.2 percent over the same period. Real median post-tax income was down 8.8 percent relative to 2021. The reason for this decline in real income was the result of 40-year high inflation. In other words, the cost of good and services, also known as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 7.8 percent between 2021 and 2022, while income growth could not keep up. In short, Americans have seen a decline in real median income both of Biden’s first two years in office.

Frank Vernuccio serves as editor-in-chief of the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.

The balance of power is changing in the communist world with China emerging as the dominant power in the Sino-Russian bilateral relationship.

Beijing’s political influence is also expanding in the Russian Far East. It is employing “soft power” to increase economic opportunities inside Siberia while Putin is occupied with the war in Ukraine. China is repeating the pattern it followed in securing its interests in Central Asia. What is raising concern among Western China watchers recently is the type and effectiveness of the tools Beijing is using out of its Central Asian playbook. Some analysts suggest China is setting the stage to move from deploying soft power to hard in Russia’s Far East in the coming years.

Beijing’s reach is already beyond simple economic influence. Recently, China began deploying private security companies (PSCs) in the area as it has done elsewhere overseas. China is directing its investment efforts toward accommodating the major stakeholders in Siberia who control what companies can operate in their regions. The Russian publication Kommersant reports that the inflow of Chinese investment was complicated by economic sanctions last year.

To alleviate some of the challenges it posed, the Russian Ministry for the Development of the Far East announced plans to develop Advanced Special Economic Zones (ASEZs) to attract partners who can create manufacturing facilities in the Far Eastern regions along the Chinese border. The companies it is attracting are Chinese and well-funded. This area has over three times the level of investment of that in other parts of Russia.

Over the last year there was an increase of over 530 firms setting up operations and over 3,300 individual projects receiving state support.

China views its role as supportive of the regional elites and as a provider of funding opportunities that Moscow can no longer handle since the onset of its war in Ukraine. However, it is not all benign. “These means go to sponsoring ethnic unrest and then supporting elite crackdowns, even using outright corruption to win over government officials and business leaders,” according to Paul Goble of the Jamestown Foundation. East of the Ural Mountains, in particular, China is pushing to expand its influence inside the Russian Federation. Moscow has taken notice and it has generated concern inside the Kremlin and at the regional level in parts of the Far east. Xi Jinping recognizes that Vladimir Putin is busy with his war efforts in Ukraine and it presents him with a unique opportunity to make inroads with little resistance from the Kremlin.

China’s neo-imperialism, however, is not without its local critics who are resisting China’s increased activity. While some view the investments as purely economic and positive, many locals are growing concerned that China’s tactics include the formation of political alliances with regional elites that threaten their territorial integrity. Goble says that “Such fears limit the success of China’s soft power offensive at the mass level,” but remain less impactful with the regional elites.

Far Eastern leaders have “kowtowed” to Beijing for a long time. Large parts of the region once belonged to China. The population is ethnically Chinese and speaks Mandarin. Local Russian officials are growing in their deference to Beijing. Almost a year ago, the governor of Russia’s Amur Oblast ordered that schools on the Russian-Chinese border begin offering special “in-depth study of the Chinese language.”

These courses are now mandatory in the city of Blagoveshchensk, with the program expanding along the border schools in other cities. China’s influence is growing among the masses, too. Street signs in many areas are now in Chinese.

Putin’s summer visit with Xi Jinping was touted officially as a success, however, it was not as positive as portrayed by the participants. The Liaoning province meeting basically discussed what China was willing to provide Russia. It appears that Putin received little beyond the opportunity to meet. The deals signed boosted Chinese trade opportunities in Siberia and as far west as the Ural Mountains. The two leaders also agreed to open additional Chinese trade offices, that will effectively operate as “proto-embassies” and further expand Chinese influence. Russian media downplayed Putin’s trip, as it highlights a region now leaning toward Beijing and away from Moscow Center. Goble points out that bilateral agreements the leaders signed enable regional Russian authorities to work directly with Beijing, rather than through Moscow as normally required under Russian law.

Perhaps most telling about the bilateral relationship, is that after the conclusion of the meetings this summer, China issued new maps of its Indian and Russian border areas. They included territory previously not marked as Chinese. Moscow did not make a strong attempt to walk back the newly drawn borders, although a Foreign Ministry spokesperson said they did not reflect the reality. Aggressive

Chinese moves may portend further hard power incursions into Russia’s Far East and, perhaps, a window in future events should Beijing decide to reclaim the land it lost at the end of World War II.

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.

Photo: China Government site

The growth of the world’s population is expected to flatten out by the end of the century to a 0.1% annual increase. Some nation-states are feeling the impact of lower birth rates earlier than others. One of those countries is Russia. According to a PEW Research Center report, the global fertility rate in 2100 with be 1.9%, representing a dramatic drop from the current numbers. Russia’s war in Ukraine has exacerbated the problem for Moscow. The country’s economy is drained by the twin challenges of military and economic losses and now faces harsh structural challenges, according to Sergey Sukhankin of the Jamestown Foundation. One of the greatest immediate tasks for Vladimir Putin, is to find a way to develop a qualified workforce to help minimize the impact of Western sanctions.

Russia’s war in Ukraine depleted the country of able-bodied, working aged men. Battlefield losses are coupled with increased emigration by those seeking to avoid military service or serving on the front lines. Although Rosstat, Russia’s official statistical agency, has been suppressing the numbers lost in combat, those numbers are needed for military planning and are slowing being released. They are devastating to the future growth of the Russian economy. What is known today is that combat deaths, reported under the label “external sources,” now account for 40 percent of all “external causes” of 18-29 years old Russian men and represent a significant, long-term, structural challenge to the regime.

To help alleviate the labor problems resulting from the war and Western sanctions, Putin turned to integrating prison labor in some sectors of the domestic economy. “Moscow has tried to veil these efforts by silencing experts and activists who have been vocal about the re-emergence of prison labor in the economy,” according to Sukhankin. Russia faced labor shortages in the past. In 2013, Oleksandr Podrabinek, of Imrussia.org, reported that human rights advocates were concerned about how the country was addressing serious shortages of manpower. “Strictly speaking, this problem has never disappeared, but public attention is drawn to it only from time to time. And this is understandable,” Podrabinek says, as “it is difficult to live with the constant understanding that voluntarily or involuntarily we use the fruits of salve labor.” Those in Russia’s slave labor camps typically suffer through 15-17 hour workdays, seven days a week in deplorable conditions, to supply the country with a wide variety of products. 

Vedomosti.ru reports that that the Russian Federal Penitentiary Service (FSIN) argued in favor of dramatically increasing the “use of prison labor in areas where there is a visible lack of foreign migrants.” The Russian Ministry of Justice added to it by suggesting that an increased reliance on prison labor could support strategic infrastructure projects in the Artic and Siberia. Sukhankin points out that Russian officials proposed using convicts for work along the Baikal-Amur Magistral (BAM) 2,687-mile-long railway, which is an alternative to the Trans-Siberian line. Several major Russian corporations, including Rosatom, Rostec, Rosano, and Roscosmos, are believed to be behind the initiative and will benefit from cheap and easily accessible labor. In August 2022, Sukhankin says that the All-Russia Public Organization’s Business Russia began testing Russian businesses readiness to incorporate an increased number of prison laborers in the operation. He says that according to the project’s findings, as many as between 100,000-180,000 convicts may be forced into harsh prison labor conditions in construction, agriculture, forestry, mining and clothing manufacturing. 

Arkady Gostev, head of FSIN, and Boris Titov, Russia’s presidential commissioner for entrepreneurs’ rights have actively lobbied Sergey Chemezov, head of Rostec with Titov claiming the convicts are “a discipline workforce” that could help Russia’s labor shortage. In 2022, approximately 9,300 prisoners were employed by Russian firms. By August 2023 that number has risen to 26,000 convicts. There is concern from abroad that the Kremlin is not accurately portraying how labor is used. Dw.com/ru in March reported that they may be involved in the production of weapons and military equipment. Earlier this year, British intelligence supported the DW report and indicated that it was an ongoing practice since August 2022. The reinstated Gulag style system appears reminiscent of the days of the Soviet economy, where it acted as the “manager” of the prison workforce on behalf of the state.

Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.

Illustration: Pixabay

In one of the Kremlin’s more bizarre comments, Nikolay Korchunov, Russia’s ambassador at large, complained to the semi-official news source RT about alleged NATO military expansion in the Arctic, a region where Russian forces dwarf those of the western alliance. He warned that “a set of necessary measures, including preventive ones,” would be take

 Vladimir Putin recently named the development of the Arctic as the country’s strategic priority. Last year, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that Russia posed a strategic challenge to the alliance in the Arctic, calling for an expanded military footprint in the region.

According to the U.S. department of Defense, Russia has been expanding its military bases along its Arctic coastline and its Nagurskoye airfield on the Alexandra Land island in the Arctic. Russia has also been using its Arctic facilities to test new weapons, including the Poseidon 2M39 nuclear torpedo, a device launched from an Arctic-based vessel designed to create a tsunami along the eastern seaboard of the U.S. coastline.

In 2021, Air Force Gen. Glen D. VanHerck, during a hearing before the House Armed Services Committee, noted that  “We’re not able to have the persistence that I need to compete day-to-day in the Arctic.” Russia has 46 ice cutters, including seven that are nuclear powered, and 12 more are under construction. Although China isn’t an Arctic nation, they have two ice cutters and another under construction. The U.S. Coast Guard has a mere two ice cutters. Cleary, the U.S. Navy and the Coast Guard are overmatched by Russia’s naval and ice-based strength in the strategic region, a fact that produces extraordinary danger for both America and Canada.

VanHerck said Russia has reopened and strengthened Cold War military installations that were once shuttered. “They absolutely have a vested interest in the Arctic, and they also want to ensure that it’s secure for their efforts…” he notes.

The challenge has been building for several years. In 2018,  Rose Gottemoeller noted that “NATO must be more active in the area… there are real military challenges developing to which the NATO alliance has not paid sufficient attention for many, many years and we need to up our game…”

Several years ago, the U.S. Naval Institute quoted Coast Guard Commandant Admiral Paul Zuknft’s statement in support of new icebreakers:“If you do not have presence to exert sovereignty, you’re a paper lion.”

A RAND study stated that “Russia’s recent military activity in the Arctic raises questions for the United States as to what types of Arctic military capabilities it needs as part of an overarching strategy to ensure credibility at the negotiating table and an ability to deal with crises.

In July, Homeland Security Subcommittee on Transportation and Maritime Security Chairman Carlos Gimenez (R-FL) stressed that  “For the last decade, Russia has been building up its military capabilities in the Arctic, including its fleet of heavy icebreakers. …Additionally, the People’s Republic of China, despite having no sovereign territory within the Arctic region, is attempting to stake out interests in Arctic affairs. In 2018, the CCP declared the PRC to be a so-called “Near Arctic Nation.” The CCP and state-owned entities own and operate icebreakers and other polar capable ships, and during the last decade, these entities showed an increased willingness to transit their vessels through Arctic waters.”

Giminez warned “The United States cannot afford to ignore this increased interest in the Arctic from near-peer competitors. I am concerned that the delays the Coast Guard is experiencing with the development and deployment of the new Polar Security Cutters will negatively impact the Coast Guard’s ability to carry out its diverse mission set and protect the homeland in the Arctic.

Photo: The northern lights glow behind a Patriot launcher during Exercise Arctic Edge 2022 at Eielson Air Force Base, Alaska, March 5, 2022. The equipment—assigned to 5th Battalion, 52nd Air Defense Artillery Regiment—was integrated during the exercise for simulated air and missile defense in austere arctic environments (DOD)