Author: Frank V. Vernuccio, Jr.

Disturbing reports have emerged from North Korea – officially known as the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) – that people have starved or been executed because of COVID-19 restrictions, a leading rights expert said on Wednesday.

Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Tomas Ojea Quintana, highlighted “deaths by starvation” linked to a “drastic” decline in trade and commerce, as well as an increase in the number of children and elderly people forced to beg.

Severe containment measures had also led to “a number of concerning consequences” that further isolate the country’s people from the outside world, Mr. Quintana said in a report to the Human Rights Council.

No record of infection

Although the country has no recorded cases of infection, the pandemic has worsened an already deteriorating economic situation in DPRK, the rights expert insisted.

Almost all humanitarian work has stopped as the country’s authorities have been effectively isolating their people from “social, political, economic” and even diplomatic engagements, including with the United Nations, Mr. Quintana told the Human Rights Council in Geneva.

Executions

Several cities had been locked down to prevent coronavirus transmission, while several individuals who were caught breaking anti-epidemic prevention measures were reportedly executed in public, he said.

This included a man in his fifties, in December 2020, was allegedly involved in illicit trade with China, along with a moneychanger who was allegedly executed

in Pyongyang the same month.

Prison misery

Detainees in the country who rely on family visits to access decent food and medical care were among the most vulnerable, the rights expert explained, as families “are currently unable to visit them because of COVID restrictions”.

The paucity of information on the human rights situation in the country is worse than ever – Special Rapporteur Quintana

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Another clear result of pandemic movement limits was the arrival of only 229 escapees in South Korea last year.

More than four times that number fled to DPRK’s southern neighbour in 2019, the Special Rapporteur explained, adding that escapees have continued to be reportedly repatriated from China.        

Lack of information

“The paucity of information on the human rights situation in the country is worse than ever”, Mr. Quintana said in his report, before supporting the Council’s previous calls for an investigation by the International Criminal Court (ICC) into crimes against humanity in DPRK.

As in previous reports, the rights expert highlighted the damaging impact of international sanctions imposed against the country’s development of nuclear weapons, describing them as “the most comprehensive and prohibitive regime of sanctions ever put in place”.

He also pointed to repeated natural disasters and the deteriorating human rights situation for the country’s people, who “for decades (have) had to suffer or fear grave abuses from State institutions that are supposed to protect them”.

Testing

Citing information from the World Health Organization, Mr. Quintana said that DPRK had tested 13,259 people for COVID-19 as of 31 December 2020.

All the results were negative, he noted, adding that the authorities had applied to join the UN-partnered COVAX equitable coronavirus vaccine distribution initiative and expected to receive 1,992,000 doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford jabs in the first half of 2021.

Representatives from DPRK chose not to attend the session, to respond to the rights expert’s report. 

Special Rapporteurs, part of the Special Procedures of the HRC, are neither paid for the work, nor are they UN staff and they operate on a fully independent basis.

Photo: Commuters travel to work by bus in the North Korean capital, Pyongyang. (UNOCHA/David Ohana)

In 2001, Beijing established the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) along with Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan.  The stated goal was to combat terrorism and instability, promote border security, strengthen political ties, as well as expanding economic cooperation.

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in particular feared that separatist movements in the minority-dominated autonomous region of Xinjiang could find support in the newly independent Central Asian states.

To shore up control in those areas, it made combating the perceived threats of “terrorism, separatism[,] and extremism” a central calling of the new organization. Since that time, the SCO has evolved into an organization Beijing views as increasingly critical to its security interests. China has used the organization to extend its defensive perimeter into Central Asia, carrying out military exercises and developing key diplomatic relationships that facilitate power projection. In recent years, Beijing has leveraged these ties to deploy its security forces into the region to patrol beyond China’s borders. In the future, China’s military is likely to build on its experience in the SCO to extend its defensive perimeter elsewhere in Asia.

In a recent report, The U.S. China Security Economic and Security Review Commission reviewed what the SCO has been concentrating on.

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In recent years, Beijing has increased security cooperation with Central Asian countries under the auspices of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) to insulate itself from perceived threats in the region. Beijing is using the SCO to enhance its ability to project power beyond its borders.  

SCO military exercises offer a unique opportunity for the Chinese armed forces to practice air-ground combat operations in foreign countries, undertaking a range of operations including long-distance mobilization, counterterrorism missions, stability maintenance operations, and conventional warfare.

Beijing has used the SCO to gain experience establishing the diplomatic relationships and arrangements necessary to support power projection. Beijing is already using its diplomatic relationships to facilitate an active military presence in Central Asia, such as through its military outpost in Tajikistan and counterterrorism patrols in the China-Tajikistan-Afghanistan border area. Beijing may be able to replicate these diplomatic and military efforts and expand them to other parts of the globe in the future.

Beijing has used the SCO to build its capacity to project military force into Central Asia. Through diplomatic agreements with member countries, the Chinese government has been able to use the SCO to build a foundation for growing its power projection capabilities, with implications not only for a future crisis in Central Asia but also for conflicts in other regions. Central Asia’s proximity to China and the generally favorable views of Central Asian governments toward Beijing have made the region an ideal testing ground for China to practice carrying out counterterrorism as well as other more conventional military operations beyond its borders. Under the auspices of the SCO and related agreements, Beijing has established arrangements for visiting forces participating in exercises; conducted small-scale, real-world operations; carried out a variety of bilateral and multilateral exercises; and dispatched its paramilitary police force, the People’s Armed Police,  beyond China’s borders to conduct patrols alongside military personnel from Central Asian states. From their earliest incarnation, SCO exercises have included a mix of military and these paramilitary forces, which have since been moved under the Central Military Commission as an auxiliary military force of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), in reforms that began in 2016. The People’s Armed Police’s participation in these earliest exercises was likely managed by the PLA and has acted as a precursor to the more robust force deployment by the PLA seen in exercises in later years. These activities have expanded China’s presence and influence in Central Asia and have given Beijing experience it could use to deploy military force to other regions.

Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III has announced his top three priorities for the Defense Department: to develop the right people, priorities and purpose of mission. According to a memorandum from his office, the mission is to continue to defend the nation from enemies, foreign and domestic.

“This will require aligning our priorities and capabilities to a changing and dynamic threat landscape,” the secretary said in the memo. “We will do so in a way that is based on a sober assessment of our strategic needs and recognize the importance of building and sustaining a strong workforce and unity within our department, across the nation and with our allies and partners around the world.”

Austin’s three priorities — defending the nation, taking care of our people and succeeding through teamwork — will guide our efforts, he emphasized. Following are the priorities under his leadership:

DEFEND THE NATION 

• Defeating COVID-19 is the greatest proximate challenge to our nation’s security. The DOD will continue to act boldly and quickly to support federal government efforts to defeat the disease, defend the force against it and work with our domestic and international partners to protect our nation from potential novel and deadly viruses of the future. The  DOD will continue to give direct support to the government’s vaccination efforts and encourage military personnel to get the vaccine to remain ready to protect the nation globally. Both challenges demand an aggressive DOD effort to inform and educate people about protective measures and the safety and effectiveness of the vaccines.
• Prioritize China as the Pacing Challenge: This is DOD’s No. 1 pacing challenge, and it will develop operational concepts, capabilities and plans to bolster deterrence and maintain its competitive advantage. The approach toward China will be coordinated and synchronized across the enterprise to advance DOD’s priorities — integrated into domestic and foreign policy — in a whole-of-government strategy, strengthened by DOD’s alliances and partnerships and supported on a bipartisan basis in Congress. 
• Address Advanced, Persistent Threats: In addition to addressing China, the DOD will remain ready to respond to and effectively deter nation-state threats emanating from Russia, Iran and North Korea, and disrupt transnational and non-state actor threats from violent extremist organizations — such as those operating in the Middle East, Africa and South and Central Asia. The DOD will seek to impose cost where necessary, while using all of its tools to lower the risk of escalation with its adversaries and respond to challenges below the level of armed conflict. The DOD will continue to maintain credible deterrence against advanced threats, and “right-size” its missions around the world in a transparent, principled manner. 
• Innovate and Modernize DOD: The department will be innovative at a speed and scale that matches a dynamic threat landscape, requiring advances in joint-warfighting concepts and a commitment to rapid experimentation and capabilities fielding. The DOD will divest itself of legacy systems and programs that don’t meet its security needs any longer, while investing smartly for the future. The DOD will improve the efficiency of the force and guarantee freedom of action in contested, complex operating environments. 
• Tackle the Climate Crisis: We face a growing climate crisis that is impacting our nation’s missions, plans and capabilities and the DOD must take immediate action. In line with President Joe Biden’s direction, the DOD will elevate the climate as a national security priority, integrating climate considerations into DOD’s policies, strategies and partner engagements. The DOD will incorporate climate-risk assessments into war-gaming, modeling and simulation, and bolster mission resilience and deploy solutions that optimize capability, and reduce our carbon footprint. 

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TAKE CARE OF OUR PEOPLE

• DOD will Grow its Talent: People are the department’s most-critical asset. We remain the preeminent fighting force in the world because of our personnel in and out of uniform. “I have never had more confidence in our ability to meet the security challenges of today and tomorrow,” Austin said. To maintain that advantage, the DOD will build opportunities for growth and development, invest in training and education and create new opportunities for advancement that drive promotion and retention for our total civilian and military workforce. The DOD will build out a range of skills and capabilities in the workforce and remove barriers that limit its people from realizing their full potential as partners in the department’s work. 
• Build Resilience and Readiness: The DOD maintains and enhances force readiness and develops capabilities to protect America when it fully embraces a diversity of backgrounds, experiences and thought. The DOD will lead with its values, building diversity, equity and inclusion into all aspects of its work. Inclusivity will drive innovative solutions across the enterprise and create a constructive environment in which every person has the space to contribute fully. The DOD will never spare support for its people, and will protect the safety, health and welfare of service members and their families, and civilian employees. The DOD will also work closely with the president, the Department of Veterans Affairs, and the interagency to ensure that it properly supports our veterans and their families long after they have served their duty. 
• Ensure Accountable Leadership: Some behaviors are antithetical to our values, undermine our readiness, and put our effectiveness at risk, but are alive within our workforce. Leaders at every level will be responsible for building a safe environment for DOD people and guaranteeing swift and clear accountability to anyone who does not act within the highest standards of the department. The DOD will not tolerate sexual assault and sexual harassment. Extremism also presents a complex and unique challenge to the DOD, which the department must meet head-on working to permanently stamp out extremism in the ranks. Both efforts and others will ensure that we provide every member of the department a safe and supportive place to serve their country – one free from discrimination, hate, harassment and fear. 

SUCCEED THROUGH TEAMWORK

• Join Forces with our Allies and Partners: U.S. allies and partners form a force multiplier and one of the greatest strategic assets we have in protecting our nation. Facing complex challenges that span across borders, the department’s success will depend on how closely we work with our friends around the world to secure our common interests and promote our shared values. We cannot meet our responsibilities alone, but rather, we will consult with our allies and partners and, when appropriate, we will act together. Where one country may lack the unique capabilities of others will fill that void, making us stronger as a team than the sum of our individual parts. 
• Work in Partnership with Our Nation: Protecting the nation requires teamwork at every level — state, local, tribal and federal. It requires cooperation from all with a stake in our national security: our interagency, Congress, private industry and the American people. It also requires leading with diplomacy, the nation’s primary means of engaging the world, and our first national security tool of choice. The DOD will redouble its commitment to a cooperative, whole-of-nation approach to national security that builds consensus, drives creative solutions to crises, and guarantees that we lead from a position of strength, fielding a credible force, ready to back up the hard work of our diplomats around the world and our national partners.
• Build Unity Within DOD: To guarantee the DOD remains the greatest joint-fighting force in the world, we will continue to build unity of effort and mission across components, commands, services and theaters. We will ensure meaningful civil-military cooperation, safeguarding the proper balance of civilian and military inputs to our policies and missions. The DOD will demonstrate teamwork at its highest and expect it across every level, because working collaboratively will ensure the greatest success in protecting and defending the nation. 

“As I said in my confirmation hearing, we need resources matched to strategy, strategy matched to policy, and policy matched to the will of the American people,” Austin said, adding that focusing on his priorities will help us develop policy, fashion strategy, and acquire resources. 

“I hope you will consider how you can assist in that effort,” the secretary said. “Thank you for your service to our country and for your commitment to our national security. I look forward to working with each one of you as we build a department ready to meet the challenges of tomorrow, together.”

Photo: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin discusses priorities with troops (DoD Photo)

A breakdown of the recently passed stimulus bill highlights the fact that Nancy Pelosi and her party behaved disgracefully throughout the COVID-19 crisis.

From the very outset, when Democrats sharply criticized Trump’s closing down travel from China, the source of the pandemic, as being “racist” and “xenophobic,” to the current day, when they abused stimulus legislation to bail out profligate blue states and fund a variety of pet projects, the suffering of Americans has been seen not as a plague to be combatted but as an opportunity to be taken.

It is a textbook example of what can be done when there is no oversight from mainstream media. The “American Rescue Plan,” recently approved, spends $1.9 trillion dollars, even though some of the funds of prior related legislation remain unspent. Only $410 billion of that goes immediately to the people.  If that nearly $2 billion were given directly to the citizenry, each individual would get about $5,937. Instead, those whose salaries are under $80,000 (and couples with incomes below $150,000) will each get only $1,400.

For cash-starved Americans, the long-overdue funds are truly appreciated, muting criticism of the reality that the legislation provides mammoth amounts of dollars to non-COVID issues, including $360 billion to state and local governments.  

Some states, especially those like New York, have for decades overspent and have been on the verge of a fiscal disaster because of it. Funds from the current COVID bill, advertised as being for cash-strapped Americans left out of work due to the pandemic, are being diverted to coverup the disastrous mismanagement of Blue-governed jurisdictions. A spokesperson for New York’s senior Senator Charles Schumer, the co-majority leader of the United States Senate, happily notes that funds from the American Rescue Plan will virtually wipe out the Empire State’s deficit.

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Pelosi’s actions in the 2021 stimulus package are consistent with her record in past COVID bills. Reviewing a prior legislative initiative, Rep. Chris Stewart (R-Utah) noted in a Hill article: “The release of text of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi‘s (D-Calif.) version of coronavirus relief legislation … took many Americans by surprise. Brazen even by today’s standards, the bill was a pork-fest of new spending, unpopular mandates, and election interference designed to give Democrats the upper hand rather than giving Americans a hand up.  Expecting fast action on legislation to provide immediate relief to workers, Americans watched a bipartisan compromise bill in the Senate go down in flames. Instead, Democrats made a cynical bet that Americans would be forced to swallow whatever Pelosi could stuff into a 1,000+page bill. The contents of that bill laid bare the Democrats’ shameful strategy to leverage the crisis for political gain.”

In terms of timing, Pelosi held back urgently needed relief that should have been delivered last summer. The Speaker was concerned that providing Americans with cash would have put voters in a better frame of mind going into the election, which may have resulted in more support for incumbent Trump.

As Joel Pollak wrote recently: “The real winner, politically, is Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA). She delayed a deal on coronavirus relief for months, then agreed to a much smaller deal in December. Asked by reporters about her “mistake,” Pelosi all but admitted that it had been worth causing pain to Americans to prevent Trump from accomplishing anything before the election. All Pelosi had to do was wait for a new Senate, and a new administration. She got her money — even if Americans had to suffer for it.”

The $360 billion aimed at bailing out profligate state and local jurisdictions would be far better spent either going directly to individuals and families, or for direct aid to the hard-hit small business sector.  

Illustration: Pixabay

Published reports indicated that there is renewed expert belief that COVID-19 originated in a Chinese government-run laboratory.

Whether intentional or accidentally, the pandemic was unleased to the world through Beijing’s actions. It has been previously discussed why there has been so few expressions of anger in the American media about that nation’s that world-changing action or negligence. Some answers are becoming more clear.

A study by the Heritage Foundation states that “The idea that some American and European news outlets are giving more credibility to the Chinese party line on the coronavirus than they do to their own governments is nothing less than bizarre. Yet, here we are. Even in this time of national crisis, sheer hatred for the U.S. president causes many in the mainstream media to interpret his every action and statement as unacceptable.  On top of that, Beijing for years has been constructing the grid for information warfare against the United States, which it now is deploying full force. This combination has produced a shameful capitulation by the media establishment to China’s communist authoritarian regime. “

An extraordinary analysis published by the Gatestone Institute reveals that  China Daily, which essentially serves as a mouthpiece for Beijing, paid $19 million to U.S. media companies, including $12 million to major newspapers such as the Washington Post, the New York Times, the Los Angeles Times, the Chicago Tribune, Boston Globe, Seattle Times, Houston Chronicle and Foreign Policy.

  The information came from  a required disclosure made to the U.S. Justice Department.

 Aside from newspapers, a report by International Policy Digest notes that financial ties exit between a number of news outlets and China.

Their extraordinary report outlines those ties. 

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“NBC News, CNBC, and MSNBC are owned by Comcast which also owns Universal Pictures which is a minority partner to five Chinese state-owned companies in the Universal Beijing Resort. … In 2016, Universal and China’s Perfect World Pictures announced a $500 million co-financing deal of a slate of films. ABC News is owned by The Walt Disney Company which also owns Walt Disney Studios and participates in the Shanghai Disney Resort, where it is a 43% partner to three Chinese companies controlled by the government of the city of Shanghai….CBS News is owned by ViacomCBS which also owns Paramount Pictures and ViacomCBS Networks International, the latter of which produces MTV and Nickelodeon for the Chinese market. CNN is owned by AT&T’s WarnerMedia … WarnerMedia is also a 49% participant in Flagship Entertainment, a film production company located in Hong Kong; the other major participant is venture capital firm China Media Capital.”

The Japan Times  explains that Beijing clearly is following a policy of suppressing any criticism of its actions and policies.  The CCP [Chinese Communist Party] under Xi believes that its dictates about truth and facts are enough. It has a global propaganda machine that can deliver its message on its terms. That new confidence is evident in the speed and readiness that Chinese officials go on the offensive against any criticism.

Indeed, it considers any criticism ideological in nature and intolerable. As Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said, “The United States cannot proceed from ideological prejudice, use its own standards and likes and dislikes to judge the media of other countries, let alone suppress the Chinese media unreasonably.”

The Federalist notes that “Despite the Chinese Communist Party’s record of oppression, corporate media outlets are parroting the authoritarian government’s propaganda, even in the midst of an outbreak the CCP worsened through a cover-up. Many of those media outlets have financial ties to Chinese companies with intense oversight from the CCP.”

The Trump Administration has vehemently opposed Beijing’s growing influence. Chinese news organizations such as the China Global Television Network,  China Radio International, China Daily, Hai Tian Development USA  and  Xinhua now must register under the Foreign Agents Registration Act. 

Illustration: Pixabay

American Presidents are required to outline their goals, and explain the means they are employing to reach them.

For eight years, the Obama-Biden Administration engaged in a bizarre, dangerous, and unexplained Middle Eastern policy that failed miserably. It is manifestly evident that Biden is pursuing the exact same course, destroying all the gains made during the past four years.

A reasonable review of the course laid down by Obama and Biden discloses that it was contrary to the interests of peace, and that it only served to strengthen Iran’s aggressive agenda.

There is little debatable about this. Obama sent pallet-loads of untraceable cash directly to the ruling mullahs, despite the reality that they are the chief sponsors of terrorism across the globe and the major threat to the well being of their own region.  Cash that could also be used to fuel their missile and nuclear efforts.

His Administration agreed to a nuclear “deal,” (the JCPOA, in reality a treaty which Obama was obligated to send to the Senate for approval, but failed to do so) that essentially gave the Tehran regime the right to develop nuclear weapons after a relatively brief passage of time, 15 years.  

 As a signatory to the nuclear nonproliferation pact, Iran was already obligated to forego the possession of nuclear weapons, an obligation it ignores.  Why does Biden believe that yet another treaty would be followed any more diligently than one Tehran already fails to comply with?

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Biden has signaled his intention to re-instate, again without the Constitutionally-mandated approval of the Senate, that deal. He has appointed Rob Malley, a key developer of the failed 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, as his special representative to resume talks with Tehran. According to Senator Tom Cotton, (R-Ark) “Malley has a long track record of sympathy for the Iranian regime & animus towards Israel. The ayatollahs wouldn’t believe their luck if he is selected.”

Some of Biden’s apologists allege that changes can to be made to improve the measure, but President Hassan Rouhani has refused to consider any significant alterations. Clearly, the only improvement that should be considered by the Biden Administration is an absolute guarantee by Tehran to fully comply with its obligations under the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty, with full inspections, and forever forego the possession of atomic weaponry.  

There is no indication that Iran is even remotely considering ending its nuclear program, with or without a deal. It has provided considerable resources to developing ICBMs that would serve as the means to deliver atomic weaponry. On January 15, the nation held an extensive ballistic missile drill, signaling both its current prowess and its intention to move ahead quickly ahead in developing a nuclear arsenal.

Biden’s continuing tilt towards Iran ignores not only the reality of the Mullah’s intransigence about developing nuclear weaponry, but the role that it has in strengthening the hand of American adversaries Russia, China, and North Korea.  Former Presidential National Security Assistant General H.R. McMaster reports that in December of 2019, “Russian and Chinese ships joined the Iranian navy” for exercises in the Indian Ocean and the Gulf of Oman. General McMaster has said that the deal “Strengthened an adversary and undermined U.S. interests.”  He based his belief on two facts.  First, the deal allows the Mullahs to gain nuclear weapons within a relatively brief period of time. Second, he notes that “the agreement is divorced from the very nature of an Iranian regime that was fundamentally untrustworthy and hostile to the United States.”

Appeasement of Iran failed during the Obama-Biden Administration. In contrast, the Trump Administration’s hard line led to substantial and unprecedented regional gains. President Biden owes a thorough explanation why he is pursuing a course that strengthens America’s enemies and endangers the U.S., its regional allies, and the cause of peace.

Illustration: Pixabay

MYANMAR (BURMA) 

On February 1, 2021, the United States declared the overthrow of the democratically elected civilian government in Myanmar to be a coup. When asked by an American journalist at the March 4 State Department press briefing why the Biden Administration’s actions do not appear to be making a difference in the situation, the Spokesman, Ned Price, said President Biden has “asked the Chinese to help” but “…it’s not up to us to dictate what any other country does.” It appears the United States will be using the Biden Administration’s foreign policy strategy of leading from behind. 

Security forces killed as many as 24 people on March 3^rd in what appears to be the latest in a series of relatively peaceful protests by tens of thousands of Burmese citizens. Price condemned the killings and the use of violence against Burmese society. He pointed out that the State Department is aware of reports that the military has charged additional journalists with crimes and unjustly detained others. “We call on the military to immediately release these individuals and to cease their intimidation and harassment of the media and others who are unjustly detained for doing nothing more than their job, for doing nothing more than exercising their universal rights,” said Price. He claimed the US has taken a number of actions against the military junta, military leaders and military entities responsible for the coup and for related violence, including visa restrictions and asset blocking sanctions although none that appear to have had an impact on freedom of the press or repression in Myanmar.

IRAN

Asked if the US regrets the withdrawal of the European resolution to censor Iran over its in Vienna, or if Washington sees it as a good way to allow diplomacy to happen, State Department Spokesman Price said “…IAEA Director Grossi offered a proposal for Iran to address unanswered concerns regarding its nuclear program. The E3 decided, with the full support of the United States, that the best way to support the IAEA’s process was to refrain from putting forward the draft resolution at the meeting of the Board of government – Governors.” Price said the US wants to engage in “constructive dialogue” with Iran. Price says that diplomacy is the best recourse. He did not say why this would cause Iran would agree to give up its nuclear weapons program.

CHINA

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Throughout the tenure of the Trump Administration the State Department called China the greatest threat to the national security of the United States. Upon entering office, the Biden Department removed that designation from the State Department’s web site. At a press briefing this week the Department spokesman responded to a journalist’s question on China not by labeling the country a threat to the US but a “competitor.” Price said that  “…across the globe, we recognize this competitive relationship with China. Our strategy is one that seeks to compete and to outcompete with the Chinese across the board.” Responding to the same question Price went on to call Russia a “threat” to the US. It appears the Biden Administration is resetting US foreign relations with China and downgrading the security challenge it poses in the process.

AFGHANISTAN

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a PBS Newshour interview this week that the US has not “…made any decisions about the May 1st deadline to withdraw the remaining roughly 2,500 troops that are in Afghanistan.” He  pointed out that Washington is in close consultation with the US’ NATO allies and other countries in the region. The State Department, he said, is evaluating what further progress can be made on the agreements that the US reached with the Taliban under the Trump Administration. On March 3, the White House made public what it is calling an Interim National Security Strategic Guidance document, which says among other things, that “The United States should not, and will not, engage in ‘forever wars’ that have cost thousands of lives and trillions of dollars. 

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, in the just-released annual report of the alliance, addresses the role and need for a strong trans-Atlantic bond. These are his remarks.

In 2020, the Alliance – like the rest of the world – was impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. Not only did the virus threaten our societies and economies, it also magnified existing security trends and tensions. But it did not prevent NATO from doing its job: our ability to defend the Euro-Atlantic area remains undiminished, and throughout the year, the Alliance worked to help save lives and keep our people safe.

Across NATO, almost half a million troops supported the civilian response to the pandemic. We delivered much-needed medical equipment and supplies, transported patients and medical personnel, secured borders and built field hospitals to treat many thousands of patients. We established a pandemic response plan, a stockpile of medical supplies and a trust fund for the purchase of urgently needed items. Ventilators and other equipment from the stockpile have been delivered to Allies and partners. Throughout the year, potential adversaries have been seeking to exploit the crisis to destabilise our societies and undermine our democracies. Based on polls commissioned by NATO in 2020, half the population of Allied countries thought security threats to their nation had increased due to the pandemic.

 Against this background, NATO’s priority has been to make sure the health crisis did not become a security crisis. We continued to deter aggression, to defend our Allies, and to project stability beyond Alliance borders, keeping our forces safe, vigilant and ready. We sustained our missions and deployments – from the battlegroups in the east of the Alliance, to Kosovo, Afghanistan and Iraq. And we continued to cooperate with a network of partner countries and international organisations to tackle common security challenges. At the same time, we are working to prepare the Alliance for the future.

We launched the NATO 2030 initiative, aimed at making our strong Alliance even stronger in an unpredictable world. One thing is certain: we can only keep our nations safe if North America and Europe work together, in strategic solidarity. The level of support for the transatlantic bond remains high, with 79 per cent of citizens believing that the collaboration between North America and Europe on safety and security matters is important. A strong transatlantic bond is the cornerstone of our security and the only way to tackle great challenges, including Russia’s aggressive actions, international terrorism, more complex cyber attacks, the rise of China, disruptive technologies and the security implications of climate change.

These challenges are too big for any country or continent to tackle alone. Not Europe alone, and not North America alone – but Europe and North America together. That is why at the NATO Summit later this year, we will set an ambitious and forward-looking transatlantic agenda to future-proof our Alliance.

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 First, we must reinforce the unity between Europe and North America, which derives from our promise to defend each other. Therefore, we must strengthen our commitment to our collective defence and fund more of deterrence and defence on NATO territory together. We must also strengthen our political unity, by committing to consult on all issues that affect our security, using NATO as the unique platform that brings Europe and North America together every day. To chart a common course going forward and reaffirm the fundamentals of our Alliance, we should also agree to update NATO’s Strategic Concept.

Second, we must broaden our approach to security. To keep our people safe, we need not only strong militaries, but also strong societies. So we need a more integrated approach to resilience, with concrete targets on issues such as critical infrastructure and communications, including 5G and undersea cables. We also need to maintain our technological edge, to remain competitive in a more competitive world. Lastly, we must protect the international rules-based order, which is being challenged by authoritarian powers. The rise of China is a defining issue, with potential consequences for our security, prosperity and way of life. That is why we should deepen our relationships with close partners like Australia, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand, and reach out to other like-minded nations around the world.

Protecting the rules-based order starts with protecting our values at home. So we must strengthen our democracies, bolster our institutions and recommit to our values.

We have a unique opportunity to open a new chapter in transatlantic relations. And we all have a responsibility to seize it.

Photo:  NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg

Throughout the centuries, military and political leaders around the world have read The Art of War. It is a classic about Chinese military strategy, deception, and tactics written in the 6^th century BC by General Sun Tzu. Today only a few recognize how applicable it is to long-term Chinese Communist Party leadership strategy. Beijing in 2021 follows Sun Tzu’s basic premises for winning in conflict. It is simple. “The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.” “All warfare is based on deception.” And, “in the mist of chaos, there is also opportunity.” These are just a few of Sun’s often quoted, and followed, passages.

China knows that currently it cannot face off with the US Navy on the high seas and win a decisive victory although, in relative terms it views the US as a declining power in comparison to China. Nor can China come close to surpassing the US in the number of allies it can rely on in a great power conflict. The CCP’s illiberal leadership does, however, have a medium- and long-term strategic plan to challenge the US-led, global status quo. Thanks in part to Sun Tzu’s advice, Beijing is unilaterally attempting to counter US influence militarily, politically, and economically. It is using a shotgun approach, inclusive of misinformation, disinformation, and propaganda. President Xi Jinping identified the first few decades of the 21^st century as China’s “window of opportunity” for obtaining global hegemon status and “remaking the world in China’s image.” Xi is not wasting time in moving forward toward his goals.

Ryan Hass, writing in the China Leadership Monitor, contends that in recent years “China appears to be pursuing a three-pronged medium-term strategy: maintaining a non-hostile external environment in order to focus on domestic priorities; reducing dependence on America while increasing the rest of the world’s dependence on China; and expanding the reach of Chinese influence overseas.” Since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic we have seen China use the virus as an opportunity to speed up its global strategy. President Xi is intensifying China’s military aggressiveness in the South China Sea. He is trampling on the political rights of protesters in Hong Kong who now sit in its jails. Trade relations with the US and other Western democratic nations also are suffering. 

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A Chinese policy advisor during a private Track II meeting with a US official on the future of US-China relations last November, said that the CCP leadership believes it can no longer base its national plans on expectations of generally stable relations with the United States. Instead of direct confrontation China has chosen to enhance its economic self-sufficiency to offset repercussions from its aggressive foreign policy moves. China labels it a “dual circulation strategy.” Hass says this is to “reduce dependence on foreign suppliers through a domestic cycle of production, distribution, and consumption, alongside a separate cycle of external trade of goods and services.” This strategy is yet another affirmation that China’s intends to continue improving its domestic high technology sector in support of its long-term global ambitions. Has China deceived the world into believing it is a peaceful rising nation-state which will abide by the rules of the international norm-based system? The world is poised to see the emperor’s clothes really are invisible.

Daria Novak served in the Reagan State Department. Each Friday, she provides unique insights into China.

Illustration: Pixabay

Shortly before the end of the Trump Administration, the U.S. State Department reviewed the growing danger from China. We conclude our presentation of the Executive Summary of that Report.

A World-Class Military China’s economic might and technological prowess advance its development of a world-class military that is intended to rival and in the long-term surpass the U.S. military and those of its allies. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA), which owes allegiance to the CCP, is central to the party’s goal of empowering China to play the decisive role on the world stage. Following his selection in 2012 as CCP General Secretary, Xi Jinping intensified the PLA’s decades-long military modernization. Also named chairman of the Central Military Commission, Xi used the 2012 Defense White Paper to direct the PLA to achieve a status “commensurate with” China’s “international standing.” On January 1, 2016, the PLA announced a comprehensive reorganization of its force structure, setting the military on a path of expansion that paralleled China’s economic advances, and which would enable it “to combat and win battles.”

 The CCP’s extensive military transformation exhibits China’s strategic intentions. The 2016 reorganization created five theater-based joint commands — akin to the United States’ geographic commands — and two functional commands. The responsibilities of the newly formed Strategic Support Force (SSF) include cyber and space operations and electronic warfare as well as psychological-warfare operations. The SSF, along with Joint Logistics Support Force, will enable the PLA to project military power over great distances and to contest “new military strategic commanding heights.” The 2016 reform elevated China’s nuclear forces, which Xi emphasizes are essential to China’s major-power status, from a subordinate command to a separate stand-alone military service. Accordingly, he called upon the PLA Rocket Force “to enhance its nuclear deterrents and nuclear counterstrike capabilities.”

Having undertaken these structural reforms, Xi used the 19th Party Congress in October 2017 to announce goals for the transformation of the PLA’s operations and capabilities. He directed the military to achieve mechanization, make strides in applying information technology, and improve its strategic capabilities. His goal is to complete the transformation of the PLA and the People’s Armed Police into “world-class forces by 2049, the 100th anniversary of the PRC’s founding.” 

China learned well from U.S. military success in the 1991 Gulf War and the military offset strategy the United States adopted in the 1970s to address the Soviet challenge.54 To counter the U.S. military’s technological advantage, PLA leadership developed an offset strategy of its own. Top officials in the U.S. Department of Defense have warned that the United States can no longer take for granted military superiority in East Asia.

China embarked on five distinct but mutually supporting lines of effort: 

• “Military-Civil Fusion” (MCF) to achieve the world’s most technologically sophisticated military by acquiring, including through illegal means, advanced and emerging technologies from the United States and from countries around the globe;

 • “Systems-destruction warfare” strategy — emphasizing attacks on command and control centers — to shut down enemy operational systems; • Vast arsenals of ground-based precision missiles to penetrate U.S. defenses; 

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• “Assassin’s Mace” capabilities to surprise the adversary from unexpected vectors; • Industrial dominance to attain world leadership in artificial intelligence.

China’s offset strategy has resulted in a form of asymmetric arms racing. Beijing has invested in large numbers of ground-based theater missiles, third- and fourth-generation aircraft carrying advanced standoff missiles, diesel submarines capable of dominating regionalwaters, counterspace and cyber capabilities, and an increasingly advanced nuclear arsenal. The PLA’s rapid progress in producing and deploying hypersonic missiles — designed to defeat U.S. and allied missile defenses — underscores Beijing’s determination to achieve asymmetric advantages. It does not appear that China is mirroring Soviet behavior by sprinting to quantitative nuclear parity, but evidence mounts that Beijing seeks to at least double the size of its nuclear forces and achieve a form of qualitative equivalence with the United States. 

Meanwhile, China has placed more satellites in space than any country other than the United States. Beijing is also working on a range of counter-space and anti-satellite capabilities designed to threaten U.S. nuclear and critical military command and control assets. The PLA demonstrated its progress in 2007 when it conducted a successful anti-satellite test, destroying a Chinese satellite operating in the same low-earth orbit as U.S. military-imaging satellites.

The PRC has also adopted non-military stratagems to complicate U.S. military operations. 

Previous administrations cited nonproliferation as a bright spot in U.S.-China cooperation, but the evidence belies the rosy assessments. Despite Chinese commitments, Iran, North Korea and Syria continue to obtain WMD material and technology from Chinese entities while using Chinese territory as a transshipment point. According to the State Department’s annual report on international compliance with arms control, nonproliferation, and disarmament agreements, China “has failed to adhere to its November 2000 commitment to the United States not to assist ‘in any way, any country in the development of ballistic missiles that can be used to deliver nuclear weapons (i.e., missiles capable of delivering a payload of at least 500 kilograms to a distance of at least 300 kilometers).’” The report went on to note, “This failure to adhere to its November 2000 commitment is reflected in Chinese entities’ continued supply of items to missile programs of proliferation concern.” Beijing’s direct assistance to WMD proliferators declined after it signed the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty in 1992. Yet China continues to support, or at least condone, the proliferation of WMD and missile capabilities in order to undermine the security of those whom the PRC considers regional or global adversaries.

While the PRC uses an offset strategy to advance its objectives in the first island chain — stretching from Japan to Taiwan to the northern Philippines to northern Borneo to the Malay Peninsula — CCP leadership and military strategists believe that AI and other emerging technologies will drive a revolution in military affairs that culminates in what they call “intelligent warfare.” By implementing a whole-of-system strategy and driving this revolution, the CCP hopes the PLA will achieve military dominance within the next 25 years. 

In the near-to-medium term, China will use its military capabilities, operational concepts, and overall doctrine to turn the U.S. military’s technological strengths in the Indo-Pacific into weaknesses by credibly threatening to deliver massive punishment against American powerprojection forces while thwarting the United States’ ability to provide reinforcement. This would signal to regional powers a fait accompli too costly to overturn. The PRC’s strategy is not only to prevail but also to demoralize America’s friends and partners by demonstrating that the United States cannot meet its security commitments in the region — at least not quickly or at an acceptable cost. This strategy is especially pertinent to Taiwan.

Photo: Chinese fighter aircraft (China Defence Ministry)