Author: Daria Novak

As a child growing up in the 60’s, my mom’s mantra was “an apple a day.…” you know the rest. Eating one freed me from every having to ingest that awful cherry-tasting medicine. So, of course, I happily crunched on red, green and every color in between, right off the tree in my back yard. In April 1976 Apple Computer was founded and it yielded a new meaning to the word “apple.” Nine years later Apple Daily Newspaper was founded in Hong Kong.

Unlike the fruit and computer, I had not heard about the publication until recently and knew few details until a police raid on its headquarters last August. It was, for a while, one of the best-selling newspapers in Hong Kong. This week on Wednesday, July 23, 2021, residents of Hong Kong formed block-long lines to buy its final edition while others demonstrated outside the paper’s office in support of the publication.

What is so important about this smaller paper is that Apply Daily favored Hong Kong pan-democracy and was openly critical of the Chinese government. Its viewpoint in the end served as the death knell for the publication. With its assets frozen and the arrests of Apple Daily’s senior staff the paper was forced to announce its closure. Along with 800 staffers losing their jobs, Hong Kong lost the final thread of its freedom of speech.

The remaining Hong Kong newspapers now all run the same government-approved front page for fear that the horrific national security law could end up imprisoning them, too, as it has Jimmy Lai, Apple Daily’s founder. One of the paper’s opinion writers also was arrested this week ensuring that the former staffers are intimidated into silence. Some are fleeing Hong Kong unable to find work and fearful of retribution. Those who stay put in Hong Kong can be counted on to self-censor, according to officials. So dies the last flame of free press for Hong Kong’s 7.5 million residents.

A hidden concern few dare whisper is what comes next. Is it entertainment? What about academia? With the effective end of the “One Country, Two Systems” until 2047 agreement, little is left of what was once an economic jewel. But there is more… Hong Kong is the canary in the coalmine.” Soon China may go after Taiwan. Earlier this month the incoming and outgoing heads of the US Indo-Pacific Command warned Congress that China could attack Taiwan by 2027 or sooner. Changes in the political-military environment in East Asia are coming faster than expected. It could emerge as a “Donbas”[Ukraine] style fight or an outright invasion.

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The question around Washington is not if, but when it will occur. China’s “grey zone” attacks on Taiwan are intensifying. There appears to be no consensus inside the Biden Administration about the US response to an attack on the island, with some senior officials stating that it is “not important” to US national security.  Although an outright invasion is not deemed likely in the near future, it demands America’s attention. As China pushes out past its self-declared, 9-dash line into the far reaches of the South China Sea, it time to carefully examine the Chinese leadership’s short- and long-term policy goals.

The West needs to recognize that Chinese President-for-Life Xi Jinping (習近平) is a firm advocate of unification. He views Taiwan as a pressing issue at the front of his political agenda and one where force may need to be employed to achieve China’s goal. Certainly, Beijing’s lack of interest in reaching out to the people in Taiwan is an indicator of Xi’s attitude. Second, is the CCP’s willingness to exert its military influence in the area around Taiwan. Incursions into Taiwanese waters and airspace occur on an almost daily basis in recent months. If Xi’s military commanders are telling him the use of China’s modern military force is now a viable option, he may be pushed into bringing the long-standing issue to conclusion sooner than expected. Is this a one-two punch condemning Taiwan to conquest? With Hong Kong failing fast, Taiwan appears to be the next piece to be acquired in China’s global chess game unless the US and other freedom-loving nations step up to help.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Friday, she presents key updates on China.

Illustration: Pixabay

Over the years Russian President Vladimir Putin has proved himself a chameleon capable of effectively manipulating his political environment at home and shaping the global media’s coverage of him to obtain his strategic objectives for Russia. So, how do we interpret Putin’s meeting last week with President Joe Biden? Reports coming out of Geneva portray Putin as off message, speaking softly, sounding weak, and rambling. According to analyst Kevin Baron of Defense One, “He looked thoroughly disconnected from his own myth.” Perhaps, the question Washington needs to ask now is “Are we being led down a false path again or is Putin truly a fading dictator standing alone in what appears to be a world unifying against both the Russia and Chinese threat?” 

While other dictators in crumbling regimes may stick with Putin, they do so only to receive Russian protection and meager military handouts. Putin knows they are not loyal to him, but only to the supply of goods and money that keep them in power. At home he has to contend with Russian organized crime figures involved in illicit cyber activities and over which he has limited control. Putin also recognizes that there is a narrow window of opportunity for continuing lucrative AI and military sales to China, which Moscow desperately needs to support its military modernization program. 

The Putin-Biden meeting ended early, lasting just over three hours. According to Biden, he said the two leaders will look back at the issues discussed in about three to six months to see if any progress has been made. Topics reported under discussion included cyber security, election interference, Ukraine, Afghanistan, and arms control. “I’m not sitting here saying because the president and I agreed that we would do these things that all of a sudden it’s going to work,” Biden said. There were 16 cyber critical infrastructure sectors that he asked Putin not to attack. A senior Biden Administration official called these “destructive” sites versus those typical associated with intelligence gathering. The question analysts in Washington are asking is, ‘Did President Biden just give tacit approval for Russia’s President to attack other sites?’ Does that mean the US will not respond to Russian hacking outside of those areas listed? President Biden did not receive a response from Putin. Instead, it appears he was simply given a cyber roadmap for how far Russia can penetrate the United States without pushback from Washington. Any success in the future may be attributed more  to G7 countries and NATO leaders unifying in their opposition to Russian aggression.

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Putin faces domestic problems at home with a struggling economy and discontent among Russian politicians and businessmen with his policies. With a new cyber roadmap in hand Putin may be able to concentrate Moscow’s offensive cyber warfare efforts in a more efficient way that will be economical and productive. This is not the first time Russia has employed cyberwarfare. It has conducted cyberattacks aimed at the Ukrainian power grid and a Saudi petrochemical plant, among other targets. It appears it will not be the last time the United States comes into Putin’s line of fire. 

It is likely the Russian President felt little need to expend much energy during the Biden meeting, as the American President is not known to be strong or adept at handling facts. In referring to how Putin responded to Biden’s off-limits cyber list, Keir Giles, a Russia expert with the London-based Chatham House think tank, said: “There’s no indication at all that he actually went along with it.” When President Obama, in 2015, made a similar request of Chinese leader Xi Jinping, China agreed and then reneged as the hacking cases continued unabated. A common aphorism among Communist leaders is that is not lying if the person with whom you are speaking is not a communist. Did Putin just play Biden? The mainstream media in America will protect Biden at all costs. Only time will tell if the Geneva meeting was a success.

Photo: Vladimir Putin official picture (Russian Government)

U.S. special forces have protected America and entranced observers of military affairs for decades. Their exploits have fascinated the public in books, movies, and television series.

The target of these extraordinary warriors has generally been terrorist organizations and leaders. Notably, Seal Team Six was responsible for eliminating Osama Bin Laden.

They led the way onto Afghanistan in 2001 and will be among the last troops to leave the country at the end of the retrograde. Clarke, who served in the 82nd Airborne Division in 2002 and with the 1st Ranger Battalion in 2004 in Afghanistan, understands that world quite well. But times have changed. 

“I think most of you understand the counterterrorism mission,” he said. “Competition, or as some refer to it as strategic competition, may be less familiar. In short, it’s winning without fighting. It’s taking actions below the level of combat.” 

But the world is facing a threat that dwarfs that posed by al Qaeda, ISIS, and the Taliban. Increasingly, the combined military might of China and Russia poses an existential threat against the very existence of the free world. In response, special operators are evolving the meet the devastating new challenge.  

Unlike the mostly kinetic actions in the extended War on Terror, Clarke said the contest in the information space will impact all domains of warfare. “To be clear, it is a battle in the cognitive space,” he said. “It takes place on the Internet, but not always. This is purely distinct from cyber from the ones and zeros in the [Colonial] pipeline attack. It is a cognitive space where we must prevail.”

Clarke recalls that roughly 95 percent of his time was spent on finding and killing or capturing enemy forces. “Today, if you visit our commanders in Iraq and Afghanistan, they’ll say that they focus 60 percent or more of their time on non-lethal effects in the information space,” he said.

All this requires that special operations forces commanders get the tools they need to decide and act more quickly. They also need the capabilities to more effectively interact with allies and partners and with local populations. 

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New technologies or new ways of using technologies will be key moving forward, he said. “How do we more effectively search through our mountains of data? that is across all classifications and all domains,” he asked. “How do I move data from [unclassified] to secret to top secret, with no problem, and so it is useful? How do we harness mission command of our forces, … but also combined operations with ours, so that we’re all seeing the same picture?”

Technology will be the answer to these questions and more not even thought of yet, he said.

Special Operations Command is reaching out to industry partners and experts in academia to solve these problems. Clarke is opening the command to specialists in these technologies and more to improve capabilities and build capacity.

He worries about Special Operations Command falling behind competitors. “We have to maintain the budget and the resources to continue moving forward,” Clarke said.

“As we go forward, we’re going to face different pressures tomorrow, different but I would argue even more vital to our national security,” he said. “Our threats have continued to evolve: Cyber threats, … Chinese activities globally, and Russian disinformation each and every day. Reorienting our momentum towards strategic competition, we must modernize with purpose.

“Even as these threats evolve, why am I still confident we’ll rise to this challenge? Because as I reflect back to Afghanistan and the changes we’ve made, we’ve done it before and we’ll do it again.”

Photo: Department of Defense

A vigorous debate is healthy and good for a nation. In the turmoil and contest of ideas, the best and most useful concepts should win out. But when lies replace facts, the discussion turns harmful. That’s happening in America now.  There are several clear untruths that not only affect specific topics, but damage the unity of the country. Leftist politicians, as well as key biased informational outlets, the mainstream media, and universities, are the key perpetrators. 

These are the subjects most affected:

Allegations of Systemic Racism. Yes, there are individuals who harbor and act out on racist impulses. That’s inevitable in a nation of over 300 million. But the claim of systemic racism is wholly false. There are no laws, regulations or procedures that allow racism. To falsely allege that there are promotes unnecessary division and anger, and is used to foster a radical agenda.  

Heather MacDonald, writing for the Manhattan Institute, reports: “This charge of systemic police bias was wrong during the Obama years and remains so today. However sickening the video of Floyd’s arrest, it isn’t representative of the 375 million annual contacts that police officers have with civilians. A solid body of evidence finds no structural bias in the criminal-justice system with regard to arrests, prosecution or sentencing. Crime and suspect behavior, not race, determine most police actions.”

  Election integrity is partisan. Even before the tumultuous 2020 election, the question of election integrity was a major debate. Honest attempts to ensure the integrity of the ballot through voter id, verifiable registrations, etc. are NOT “suppression.”

 Pew Center on the States study found “millions of voter registration records nationwide that are either inaccurate or no longer valid…based on data [indicating] a voter died, moved, or had been inactive from 2004 to March 2011.”  The study revealed that 2,758,578 individuals were registered to vote in more than one state.  In addition, “12.7 million records nationwide…appear to be out of date and no longer reflect the voter’s current information, more than 1.8 million records for people who are no longer living, but have active registrations on voter rolls, and 12 million records with incorrect addresses…once duplicates among categories are eliminated, approximately 24 million registration records, or nearly 13% of the national total, are estimated to be inaccurate or no longer valid.”

Jack Kelly, in a Pittsburg Post-Gazette article, notes that there have been recent investigations, indictments, or convictions for vote fraud in California, Texas, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina and Maryland.

 Hans Spakovsky, writing in the Free Speech & Election Law Practices  publication, emphasizes the problem of noncitizens registering to vote.  He reports that in a random sampling of 3,000 registrations in California’s 39th Assembly District, 10% contained phony addresses or were not U.S. citizens.

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Defense spending is just another government program.  For decades, many electeds have bargained their support for necessary military allocations by demanding pork barrel projects for their districts, or for various other programs.  The premise that national security can be used as a bargaining chip is not only false, but dangerous. 

You don’t have to be an expert on military issues to observe China’s massive military buildup, and its unprecedented aggression in the Indo-Pacific.  Russia’s Putin seeks to restore the Soviet Empire, and has invaded and occupied portions of neighboring nations.

 Freedom of speech is an optional right. Adherence to the First Amendment is not optional, and the attempts to portray it as such are dishonest. The framers of the Constitution were clear. Freedom of speech and assembly is not open to interpretation or limitation. It is a myth that, in the public square speech can be constitutionally “cancelled,” in other words, censored. Several years ago, Senator Charles Schumer called for the weakening of free speech rights, alleging that paid political speech is not covered by the First Amendment. He stated that “The First Amendment is sacred, but it is not absolute.” Frighteningly, he received the support of the Democrat delegation. Happily, that was not enough to secure passage of the measure. CNN, which has emerged less as a news organization than as a spokesman for Progressive views, has called for the “blacklisting” of conservative news sites.

America can be the world’s welfare agency. We are asked to accept the fallacy that it is the duty of U.S. taxpayers to support the poor across the globe. Not only is that unfair to Americans, but it encourages corrupt and incompetent governments to continue their poor practices. 

Open borders are a part of this. Allowing significant numbers of aliens to enter the nation, taking jobs from Americans and diverting funds from helping citizens to assisting new unlawful arrivals is absolutely wrong, 

The Federation for American Immigration Reform  provides this estimate of costs: “At the federal, state, and local levels, taxpayers shell out approximately $134.9 billion to cover the costs incurred by the presence of more than 12.5 million illegal aliens, and about 4.2 million citizen children of illegal aliens. That amounts to a tax burden of approximately $8,075 per illegal alien family member and a total of $115,894,597,664. The total cost of illegal immigration to U.S. taxpayers is both staggering and crippling. In 2013, FAIR estimated the total cost to be approximately $113 billion.”

Unlimited spending is ok. Judd Gregg, opinion editor for The Hill, reveals how deep the crisis is: “The most disconcerting shift in the Biden budget is its radical expansion of the size of the federal government as a percentage of national economic activity. For the first time in our history, other than during the Second World War, the federal government will absorb almost 25 percent of our nation’s wealth under the Biden budget. If you add in the activities of states and cities, government spending will easily exceed a quarter of the country’s economic output…Approximately $5.4 trillion of spending on new programs or expanded federal social programs is proposed in the Biden budget over ten years.”

Those who perpetuated these clearly false ideas in pursuit of “fundamentally transforming” America in a socialist model are not engaging in honest debate.  They are engaging in mendacious propaganda.

With nations such as North Korea, Iran, Russia and China all maturing their missile technology, the Defense Department plans to launch a review of its own missile defense policies, strategies and capabilities over the next few months, testified Leonor Tomero, the deputy assistant secretary of defense for nuclear and missile defense policy before the Senate Armed Services Committee.

Thirty-five years ago, President Reagan first announced his “Strategic Defense Initiative,” (SDI) designed to provide an anti-ballistic (ABM) missile shield to protect the U.S. from nuclear attack.  Some historians believe the announcement was at least one factor in the Soviet leadership’s realization that they could not win the Cold War.  The move was resoundingly criticized by left-wing politicians and pundits, who pejoratively labelled the concept “Star Wars.”

SDI was never built, and even less capable systems were only marginally deployed. President Clinton cancelled a follow-up program known as “Brilliant Pebbles” and Barack Obama, first as a U.S. Senator, then as President, did everything possible to defund and even reduce various elements of ABM defenses.  in 2007, then-Senator Obama advocated cutting the anti-ballistic missile program budget by a greater amount than its entire allocated budget.

Generally, what exists of the minimal U.S. missile defense systems have been designed to defend against ballistic missiles. However, the Trump administration’s 2019 Missile Defense Review most clearly noted that the United States will be looking for ways to defend against non-ballistic missiles.

Cruise missiles and hypersonic missiles are two additional categories of missiles. Unlike ballistic missiles, cruise missiles remain within the atmosphere for the duration of their flight. Cruise missiles are propelled by jet engines and can be launched from land-, air-, or sea-based platforms. Due to their constant propellants, they are more maneuverable than ballistic missiles, though they are also slower than their ballistic counterparts.

The latest review will be coordinated across the DoD, including such entities as the Missile Defense Agency, U.S. Northern Command, NORAD and the acquisition community, Ms. Tomero said.

“We’ll look at the threat in the changing security environment … how do we improve and have effective and affordable missile defense for both the homeland and regional defense,” she said.

That review will be a part of the National Defense Strategy, which Tomero said should be completed by January 2022.

According to testimony filed by Tomero with the committee, the review will be guided by a handful of principles from defense against rogue states’ intercontinental ballistic missiles to assure allies the U.S. continues to be committed to security partnerships.

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With ICBMs, Tomero said, the missile defense review will focus on ensuring the U.S. has an affordable defense against rogue state ICBMs. There, missile defense must protect against limited attacks by those ICBMs, she said, and also limit their use as a threat.

“This protection will also contribute to diminishing the coercive potential of these states who may seek to constrain the ability of the United States to provide credible security assurances to our allies and partners during a crisis or conflict,” Tomero noted.

The missile defense review will also evaluate the ability of U.S. missile defense capabilities so that the U.S. can operate with allies and partners on exercises and regional defense.

“Our regional missile defenses will continue to contribute to the United States’ ability to operate throughout the world,” she testified. “They will enable regional and transregional military operations and exercises, providing force protection in contested environments.”

The review will evaluate the continued ability of the U.S. missile defense capability to assure allies of the United States’ commitment to security partnerships.

“Not only will missile defense partnerships reinforce the indivisibility of U.S. and allied joint security interests, these relationships will also provide opportunities for allied and partner cooperation, co-development, and burden sharing,” according to the DoD.

Photo: DoD

HONG KONG

The State Department condemned the arrest of five senior executives from Apple Daily and their parent company, Next Digital by Hong Kong authorities. In an ongoing campaign of suppression of free speech, officials have wielded the national security law as a tool to suppress independent media, to silence dissenting views, and to stifle freedom of expression. The State Department Spokesman, Ned Price, said these actions “undermine Beijing’s obligations, their own obligations under the Sino-British Joint Declaration, which is a binding international agreement, to uphold Hong Kong’s high degree of autonomy and protected rights and freedoms.” He called on authorities to “stop targeting the independent and free media.” Efforts to stifle media freedom and to restrict the free flow of information have undermined Hong Kong’s democratic institutions and the business community in recent years.

IRAN

The State Department said it is continuing indirect talks with the Iranian government concerning its ongoing failure to comply with nuclear-related commitments under the JCPOA. Iran’s production of uranium is now enriched up to 60 percent. Price said “That is of continuing serious concern. If Iran wants the diplomatic solution it says it seeks, it must set aside such provocative steps.” In a weak statement Price said: “We would like to build and be in a position to build on the meaningful progress that has been achieved during the last round of talks.”  The IAEA-Iran deal expires on June 24^th if the 6^th round of diplomatic talks fail.  

 CHINA

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Secretary of State Antony Blinken had a follow-on call recently with Chinese  Director of the Office of the Central Commission for Foreign Affairs Yang Jiechi  to discuss potential areas for cooperation between the PRC and the United States. According to Price, it included a discussion on climate change, Iran, and human rights among other issues. He added that the US “will be in a position of strength” once the US has its allies working with Washington. 

GERMANY

A written statement issued by the State Department said that Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman met with German State Secretary Miguel Berger today in Washington, D.C.  The lead in the release said that Sherman discussed climate change and added “They also discussed the importance of cooperating on a joint approach to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Russia…  The Deputy Secretary underscored the importance of European energy security, reiterating the United States’ opposition to the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.”  In recent days it appears that the Biden Administration is placing additional emphasis on climate change over other great power challenges.

RUSSIA

In a briefing this week by a senior State Department official concerning the President’s recent meeting with Russian President Putin, the official said that Biden talked about his approach to Russia but it “Doesn’t mean that’s going to convince him [Putin] at all.  It does mean that by sharing that, communicating it clearly, maybe it lessens a little bit the possibility of miscommunication, misunderstanding.  And I think the President believes very strongly in being – just being very clear and direct, and that was the nature of the meeting.” The briefing was couched in vague terms such as there was “some productive movement in a few areas” and Washington got “an agreement to get our experts together to consult on issues….” The official concluded by stating that: “The real purpose is to have this direct engagement to be able to be very clear about what we stand for, why we stand for it, where our concerns are, and where we think there may be opportunities to work together and to bring a little bit more stability and predictability into the relationship… I think, again, the positive, productive step was an agreement to get teams and experts together, but it – this is going to take a while to see if there’s any real traction.” It appears little progress was made between the two world leaders. 

Why send Chinese soldiers to America’s shores to fight an expensive war when it is much easier, and less costly, for Beijing to simply buy US properties near sensitive military installations and purchase businesses that produce products critical to US national security? When China began modernizing its military a couple of decades ago, it started stealing advanced technology from the West and reverse engineered what it needed. It saved on cost and time by helping the communist giant skip generations of development. Now that it on par technologically with the West in many areas, China is taking things a step further.

The Morning Star Ranch in Texas is 140,000 acres, located near Laughlin Air Force Base, and close to a sensitive US border area. It also is owned by a communist who is a former Chinese military official named Sun Guangxin. Sun planned to build a wind and solar farm on the acreage. At first glance it may appear to be an environmentally friendly project without security implications. Upon taking a closer look at this former Chinese military official’s plan, it reveals what he really intended. The project “footprint” represents a potential threat to every American. Sun aimed to hook his solar/wind farm project directly into the Texas power grid. He would have succeeded, too, if not for nearby property owners and members of the Devil’s River Conservancy who were concerned about the environmental impact of the project. Unfortunately, this type of behavior is not an isolated incident.

China has for years been maneuvering its way into American businesses from Hollywood to Wall Street and the defense sector. China is the world’s largest producer of rare earth elements (REE). Last year it processed 140,000 metric tons of the 240,000 produced globally. REE are the 17 rare earth minerals critical to making cell phones vibrate, precision guidance systems for our military weaponry, hospital test equipment, and just about every modern convenience requiring specialized conductive or magnetic material. The United States is wholly dependent on foreign sources for the processing of heavy rare earths (HREE) and very highly dependent on non-US sources for light rare earths (LREE). No firm in the US currently supplies the HREE market. 

China over the last 30 years has sought to control the world ‘s supply of REE. Today it produces 95% of the market and all the REE materials critical to our national defense. Recently a Texas mining company announced plans to build a pilot REE processing facility with the intent of developing a full-scale production facility. It sounded like good news. What the mainstream media overlooked was that only few states away in California a Chinese firm, Shenghe Resources Holding Company, bought about 10% of the United States’ only REE mine at Mountain Pass. Each year the American mine ships about 50,000 metric tons to China for processing before US companies buy back the refined product. The Texas-owned test plant, in comparison, currently is producing only 220 pounds annually. The Defense Department under the Trump Administration began to work on the issue. Little has been done since that time. 

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What weak link in America’s critical infrastructure will the Chinese next discover? Recently East coast drivers felt the impact when foreign hackers effectively shut down gas pipelines on the East coast. One can be sure China was watching and learning. A lab in Wuhan, China unleashed a virus that has killed over 600,000 Americans and millions around the world this past year. No one can say how far China will go to reach the goal stated by Chinese President Xi Jinping. He intends to “remake the world in China’s image.” Earlier today a source told me that all US critical infrastructure has been put on alert. It is not over. The big question looming behind closed doors in Washington is can the Biden Administration handle the job? So far, there are no solutions coming from the White House.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Friday, she presents key updates on China.

Illustration: Pixabay

The elimination of fossil fuels is built on a fantasy that so-called “renewable” sources of energy can supply all energy needs. 80% of energy needs are met by fossil fuels, another 6% by nuclear energy (also unpopular with environmental extremists.) there is no chance that the 14% provided by renewables can be expanded to fill all energy needs.

A correspondent to the Chicago Sun-Times notes that “No country has done more to phase out oil than Germany. But petroleum remains the country’s leading energy source — 35% of the energy mix — a decade after the implementation of its “Energiewende” policy. To meet continued strong demand, Germany imports 98% of the oil it consumes, primarily from Russia. Seventy-eight percent Germany’s energy needs are met by fossil fuels and, as Clean Energy Wire reports, ‘In the midst of the Energiewende, Germany relies still heavily on imports of fossil fuels.’ Germany is proof positive that renewable energy mandates do little, if anything, to reduce petroleum demand.

There is one thing that killing Keystone will accomplish:  it will significantly reduce U.S. employment. Keystone provides employment for 11,000, 8,000 of them union jobs.  The claim by energy czar Kerry that they can be replaced by careers making solar panels is not supported by facts. 

Forbes reports that “Of the top 10 solar panel manufacturers in the world, 8 are Chinese.”

Again, a glance at Germany reveals the fallacy of the environmental extremist’s position.

The Research from the German Trade Union Confederation demonstrates the false hope about “green” employment: “If you only look at the employment that is related to the construction of renewable energy systems, the current balance sheet is sobering. While 300,000 people were still working in this area in 2011, there were only 150,000 employees in 2018 These losses are mainly due to the collapse in photovoltaic production and installation. 132,800 employees were recorded there as the highest level in 2011 There were just 27,300 employees in 2018. But the development of jobs is also dynamic in onshore wind energy. Employment, which has been built up since 2011 in particular, had already been lost by 2018 In 2016 the highest level was reached here with 108,500 employees, while in 2018 it was only 68,000.”

Add to all the above: the unreliability of solar and wind power, as events in both Texas and Germany clearly demonstrated in February.

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A number of explicit facts have challenged the notion that manmade activities are having a significant impact on the Earth’s temperature, starting with the fact that the Earth has continuously experienced climate change, even before humans made their relatively recent appearance.

The data employed to foster the manmade change theory has been shown to be seriously flawed. When “change” advocates generally cite records only a few hundred years old, they ignore extremely relevant information.

From the 10^th to the 14^th centuries, the planet’s temperature was warmer  than that of our time. This period was followed by an era now known as “the Little Ice Age.”  Changes continued, not tied to human activity, and continue still.

As serious as the ignored data has been the intentional falsifying of key science studies. The most well-known case, popularly known as “Climategate,” came to the public’s attention when leaked emails from the University of East Anglia revealed that results of studies were tailored to ignore actual results in favor of propping up the beliefs of global warming theory advocates. It has now been revealed that the U.S. National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration and NASA have fabricated computer modeling of the atmosphere, perhaps in response to political pressure, also to better serve the wishes of climate change advocates.

The Earth’s environment does require attention, and actual harmful activities should be addressed. But the use of ignored facts and falsified data to support incorrect theories can only cause harm. The cynical employment of counterfeit science to pursue political ends–much of the climate change agenda is actually an excuse to implement socialist political goals– is unacceptable.

Illustration: Pixabay

The Biden Administration has discussed declaring a “climate emergency,” which will be a pretext for engaging in the largest government assumption of power over the American economy in history. It also seeks to have the nation re-enter the Paris Climate “Accord,” which in reality is a treaty that was never presented to the U.S. Senate, and has more to do with enacting socialist economic ideals than improving the environment.

There has been a great of criticism over the unprecedented and expensive proposals agreed to as part of the Paris Climate Accord. An Investors.com  review notes that even if climate change was as dire as advocates maintain, the economy-busting Paris Climate Accord would have little impact.  “According to the latest annual UN report on the ‘emissions gap,’ the Paris agreement will provide only a third of the cuts in greenhouse gas that environmentalists claim is needed to prevent catastrophic warming. If every country involved in those accords abides by their pledges between now and 2030 — which is a dubious proposition — temperatures will still rise by 3 degrees C by 2100. The goal of the Paris agreement was to keep the global temperature increase to under 2 degrees.”

The American Enterprise Institute questions the viability of the Paris Climate Accord proposals. “If we apply the EPA climate model under a set of assumptions that strongly exaggerate the effectiveness of international emissions reductions, the Paris emissions cuts, if achieved by 2030 and maintained fully on an international basis through 2100, would reduce temperatures by that year by 0.17 of a degree. The US contribution to that dubious achievement—the Obama climate action plan—would be 0.015 of a degree. Add another 0.01 of a degree if you believe that the Obama pseudo-agreement with China is meaningful. (It is not.) This effort to reduce GHG emissions would impose costs of at least 1 percent of global GDP, or roughly $600 billion to $750 billion or more per year, inflicted disproportionately upon the world’s poor. Would those arguing that the US should preserve the Paris status quo please explain how it can be justified simply as a straightforward exercise in benefit-cost analysis?”

Climate change is also being used by some state officials as an excuse to raise taxes, taking advantage of, and essentially eliminating within their jurisdictions, the impact of the Trump tax cuts. 

The current Biden-John Kerry arguments are based on absolute falsehoods.

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Is the U.S. in the midst of a climate emergency? Not if you review the facts. Ellen Wald, an energy specialist writing in Forbes has reviewed the United Nations latest Emissions Gap Report. She notes that “for the United States, the real value in this report is as an advisory that it need not join the Paris Climate Accord. This report is evidence that, instead, the U.S. should just keep doing what it is doing to cut its own emissions. The U.S. is the most successful major country at mitigating its own pollution, and the U.N. shows this… over the last decade, the country’s GHG emissions have been in decline (0.4 per cent per year). Greenhouse gas emissions per capita in the U.S. are dropping precipitously while those of China, India and Russia continue to rise…And the U.S. is making these improvements while it refuses to participate in the Paris Climate Accord. In 2017, the [Trump] White House said, that if it remained a part of that agreement, ‘compliance with the terms of the Paris Accord and the onerous energy restrictions it has placed on the United States could cost America as much as 2.7 million lost jobs by 2025 according to the National Economic Research Associates.’ Instead, the U.S. continued decreasing its greenhouse gas emissions faster than any other major polluter, and it did so without the Paris agreement.”

One of Biden’s early targets has been the Keystone Pipeline, a particularly irrational move. Transporting oil using a pipeline is clearly safer and more environmentally friendly than any other method. The statistics prove this beyond a doubt. But opposing Keystone is actually a cover for the real objective: eliminating the use of oil altogether.

The Report concludes tomorrow

Illustration: Pixabay

The Annual Threat Assessment from the office of the Director of National Intelligence was been released. We previously excerpted information regarding China and Russia.  Today, we review the analysis regarding Iran. 

Some of the material presented in the report, the New York Analysis of Policy and Government believes, is based more on wishful thinking than actual facts, particularly the comment that Iran is not seeking a “nuclear breakout.”

Iran will present a continuing threat to US and allied interests in the region as it tries to erode US influence and  support Shia populations abroad, entrench its influence and project power in neighboring states, deflect  international pressure, and minimize threats to regime stability. Although Iran’s deteriorating economy and  poor regional reputation present obstacles to its goals, Tehran will try a range of tools—diplomacy,  expanding its nuclear program, military sales and acquisitions, and proxy and partner attacks—to advance  its goals. We expect that Iran will take risks that could escalate tensions and threaten US and allied interests  in the coming year. 

∙ Iran sees itself as locked in a struggle with the United States and its regional allies, whom they perceive  to be focused on curtailing Iran’s geopolitical influence and pursuing regime change. 

∙ Tehran’s actions will reflect its perceptions of US, Israeli, and Gulf state hostility; its ability to project  force through conventional arms and proxy forces; and its desire to extract diplomatic and economic  concessions from the international community. 

∙ With regards to US interests in particular, Iran’s willingness to conduct attacks probably will hinge on  its perception of the United States’ willingness to respond, its ability to conduct attacks without  triggering direct conflict, and the prospect of jeopardizing potential US sanctions relief. 

∙ Regime leaders probably will be reluctant to engage diplomatically in talks with the United States in the  near term without sanctions or humanitarian relief or the United States rejoining the Joint  Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Iran remains committed to countering US pressure,  although Tehran is also wary of becoming involved in a full-blown conflict. 

Regional Involvement and Destabilizing Activities 

Iran will remain a problematic actor in Iraq, which will be the key battleground for Iran’s influence this year and during the next several years, and Iranian-supported Iraqi Shia militias will continue to pose the  primary threat to US personnel in Iraq. 

∙ The rise in indirect-fire and other attacks against US installations or US-associated convoys in Iraq in  2020 is largely attributed to Iran-backed Iraqi Shia militias. 

∙ Iran will rely on its Shia militia allies and their associated political parties to work toward Iran’s goals  of challenging the US presence and maintaining influence in Iraqi political and security issues. Tehran  continues to leverage ties to Iraqi Shia groups and leaders to circumvent US sanctions and try to force  the United States to withdraw through political pressure and kinetic strikes. 

∙ Although Tehran remains an influential external actor in Iraq, Iraqi politicians, such as Prime Minister  Mustafa al-Kadhimi, will attempt to balance Baghdad’s relations with Iran and the United States in an  effort to avoid Iraq becoming an arena for conflict between the two countries.

Iran is determined to maintain influence in Syria. 

∙ Iran is pursuing a permanent military presence and economic deals in Syria as the conflict winds down  there. Tehran almost certainly wants these things to build its regional influence, support Hizballah,  and threaten Israel. 

Iran will remain a destabilizing force in Yemen, as Tehran’s support to the Huthis—including supplying  ballistic and cruise missiles as well as unmanned systems—poses a threat to US partners and interests,  notably through strikes on Saudi Arabia. 

Tehran remains a threat to Israel, both directly through its missile forces and indirectly through its support of  Hizballah and other terrorist groups. 

Iran will hedge its bets in Afghanistan, and its actions may threaten instability. Iran publicly backs Afghan  peace talks, but it is worried about a long-term US presence in Afghanistan. As a result, Iran is building ties  with both the government in Kabul and the Taliban so it can take advantage of any political outcome. 

Military Capabilities 

Iran’s diverse military capabilities and its hybrid approach to warfare—using both conventional and  unconventional capabilities—will continue to pose a threat to US and allied interests in the region for the  foreseeable future. 

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∙ Iran demonstrated its conventional military strategy, which is primarily based on deterrence and the  ability to retaliate against an attacker, with its launch of multiple ballistic missiles against a base  housing US forces in Iraq in response to the January 2020 killing of Iranian Islamic Revolutionary  Guard Corps Qods Force (IRGC-QF) Commander Qasem Soleimani. Iran has the largest ballistic  missile force in the region, and despite Iran’s economic challenges, Tehran will seek to improve and  acquire new conventional weaponry. 

∙ Iran’s unconventional warfare operations and network of militant partners and proxies enable Tehran  to advance its interests in the region, maintain strategic depth, and provide asymmetric retaliatory  options. 

∙ The IRGC-QF and its proxies will remain central to Iran’s military power. 

Attacks on US Interests and the Homeland 

We assess that Iran remains interested in developing networks inside the United States—an objective it has pursued  for more than a decade—but the greatest risk to US persons exists outside the Homeland, particularly in the Middle  East and South Asia. 

∙ Iran has threatened to retaliate against US officials for the Soleimani killing in January 2020 and  attempted to conduct lethal operations in the United States previously. 

∙ During the past several years, US law enforcement has arrested numerous individuals with connections  to Iran as agents of influence or for collecting information on Iranian dissidents in the United States, 

and Iran’s security forces have been linked to attempted assassination and kidnapping plots in Europe,  the Middle East, and South Asia. 

∙ Iran probably can most readily target US interests in the Middle East and South Asia because it has  assets and proxies in the region with access to weapons and explosives. 

Nuclear Breakout 

We continue to assess that Iran is not currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons-development activities that we  judge would be necessary to produce a nuclear device. However, following the US withdrawal from the JCPOA  agreement in May 2018, Iranian officials have abandoned some of Iran’s commitments and resumed some nuclear  activities that exceed the JCPOA limits. If Tehran does not receive sanctions relief, Iranian officials probably  will consider options ranging from further enriching uranium up to 60 percent to designing and building a  new 40 Megawatt Heavy Water reactor. 

∙ Iran has consistently cast its resumption of nuclear activities as a reversible response to the US  withdrawal from the JCPOA and messaged that it would return to full compliance if the United States  also fulfilled its JCPOA commitments. 

Since June 2019, Iran has increased the size and enrichment level of its uranium stockpile beyond JCPOA  limits. Since September 2019, Iran has ignored restrictions on advanced centrifuge research and  development and restarted uranium enrichment operations at the deeply buried Fordow facility. In January,  Iran began to enrich uranium up to 20 percent and started R&D with the stated intent to produce uranium  metal for research reactor fuel, and in February, it produced a gram quantities of natural uranium metal in a  laboratory experiment. 

Cyber, Intelligence, Influence, and Election Interference 

Iran’s expertise and willingness to conduct aggressive cyber operations make it a significant threat to the security of  US and allied networks and data. Iran has the ability to conduct attacks on critical infrastructure, as well as to  conduct influence and espionage activities. 

∙ Iran was responsible for multiple cyber attacks between April and July 2020 against Israeli water  facilities that caused unspecified short-term effects, according to press reporting. 

Iran is increasingly active in using cyberspace to enable influence operations—including aggressive influence  operations targeting the US 2020 presidential election—and we expect Tehran to focus on online covert  influence, such as spreading disinformation about fake threats or compromised election infrastructure and  recirculating anti-US content. 

∙ Iran attempted to influence dynamics around the 2020 US presidential election by sending threatening  messages to US voters, and Iranian cyber actors in December 2020 disseminated information about US  election officials to try to undermine confidence in the US election.