America’s Space Development Agency (SDA), charged with building the National Defense Space Architecture (NDSA), has, for the first time, put satellites into orbit aboard a private company’s rocket.
SpaceX’s Transporter 2 commercial rocket has been authorized for this first-of-its-kind mission, designed to place five military spacecraft into orbit.
The Space Development Agency was established in 2019 to protect the U.S. in an era when Russia and China are becoming increasingly threatening in orbit. China, in particular, is determined to replace the U.S. as the dominant power in space. While proclaiming its peaceful intentions, Beijing’s doctrine considers space a military domain, and it is investing heavily in space infrastructure designed to secure both economic and military advantages.
Earlier this year, Chief of Space Operations, Space Force Gen. John W. “Jay” Raymond stated that The United States’ freedom to maneuver in space is a vital national interest that underpins national security, intelligence efforts, treaty verification and the economy.
The current SDA mission includes five SDA satellites. These include a pair of “Mandrake II” satellites; two “Laser Interconnect Networking Communications System,” or LINCS, satellites; and a satellite carrying the SDA’s Prototype On-orbit Experimental Testbed, or POET, experiment.
The SDA is working now on delivering the National Defense Space Architecture, which includes hundreds of satellites delivered in “tranches” every two years; each tranche will provide more capability.
The NDSA’s network of hundreds of satellites will provide beyond line-of-sight targeting for ground and maritime time-sensitive targets and the same for enemy missiles already in flight. The system will provide the ability to detect those targets, track them, calculate a fire control solution and then deliver that solution down to a weapons platform so the target can be destroyed.
It’s expected that the NDSA’s hundreds of satellites will communicate with one another using a network of lasers through optical communication terminals, or OCTs.
Two of each type of satellite will go into orbit, and the SDA will evaluate the ability of each OCT to operate in space.
“We’re trying to figure out the acquisition, the pointing and the tracking,” said a senior SDA official. “Can we make the connection; can we hold that connection; and can we exchange data between two terminals in space with that connection?”
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The official said the tests will put the satellites as far as 2,400 kilometers apart in order to test their ability to communicate via laser.
“We’re going to try to send data essentially from D.C. to Denver at the speed of light,” he said. “And that’s what we’re going to bring to the warfighter over the next several years.”
The SDA is hoping to build a “market” for the satellites it plans to put into orbit. It will buy a lot of those satellites and put them up regularly. Agency officials expect that a market for satellites would cause many vendors to compete regularly with their latest technology, and many would have compatible technologies.
The POET experiment will also go into space on June 25. While Mandrake II and LINCS will evaluate optical communication terminals, POET will be an experiment on how to process information in space so that time isn’t wasted sending it down to Earth to be processed.
The SDA official said POET is a “battle management capability” that will be in space.
“We’re going to actually load data and algorithms into that on orbit, and we’re going to test out data fusion in orbit for the warfighter,” the official said.
Having processing capacity on the ground means unnecessary latency in the process, which is unacceptable.
“The more processing that we can move into space, the better off we’re going to be,” he said. “POET is going to give us the first opportunity to actually do that… so we’re really looking forward to getting some data out of this.”
Politics over the past several years has been contentious. It is about to get far worse.
The sinews that have held the nation together in the most divisive times are becoming unglued. This is not the result of two sides dueling due to sharply differing views. It is, instead, a deliberate attempt by the radical Progressive movement to tear down long cherished institutions, the capitalist economy, and the personal and economic safety of the citizenry in order to rebuild the country in a Marxist paradigm.
The hard left’s goals could not have been achieved at the ballot box over the past seventy years, so a patient program to gain leadership positions in key professions was begun. A German Communist student activist named Rudi Dutscke advocated a “long march through the institutions” in 1967 to establish the conditions where success could nevertheless be achieved. The strategy has proven successful. The fields of journalism, education, and the media were eventually dominated by those in sync with hard-left ideology, and they are now fully exercising their power.
Students are being taught, contrary to fact, that America is terrible nation. They are intentionally blinded to the reality that a free market economy provides more prosperity to a greater range of the population than socialism. Journalists, consciously or not, have a adopted theA Progressive tenet that truth is subservient to the pursuit of ideological goals. Hysteria-inducing charges of “Russian Collusion,” “Systemic Racism,” and imminent environmental collapse are diligently published. The entertainment media, heavily influenced by China, pushes this forward. Legitimate questions concerning the misdeeds of leftist politicians, as well as sheer factual research, are ignored. Massive, long-term violent acts of rebellion against legitimate authority perpetuated by Black Lives Matter and Antifa are obscured.
The movement has entered a new phase, with the goal this time being a permanent hold on elective offices by suppressing contrary voices and disrupting the elective process. This is being done in a variety of ways.
There can be little dispute that voter registration rolls and ballot security rules across the nation are flawed in ways that benefit the Left. A Pew Center on the States study found that 2,758,578 individuals were registered to vote in more than one state. In addition, 12.7 million records nationwide are out of date and include over 1.8 million records for people who are no longer living. Approximately 24 million registration records, or nearly 13% of the national total, are estimated to be inaccurate or no longer valid. Hans Spakovsky has revealed some districts with 10% phony registration addresses, and aliens ineligible to vote. The vehemence with which Progressive politicians attack legitimate border security is directly related to their bid, seen in a number of large cities to give them the vote. Relevant also is their fight against rational measures for appropriate identification before casting a ballot.
The worst is yet to come.
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Passage of H.R. 1, which would legitimize efforts to subvert reasonable ballot security measures, is a distinct possibility.
The American Republic has been unusually successful, thanks to the genius of a Constitution that protects all while allowing the majority to govern. Numerous attempts to eliminate the Electoral College have been made, with the intention of disenfranchising more conservative, smaller states. The abuse of federal agencies, such as the Internal Revenue Service to harass groups such as the Tea Party, and the Department of Justice to attack right of center think tanks and political figures were begun under Obama, and have been renewed by Biden. These abuses will, at least for the next two years, escalate.
Progressive-led media will continue to use a variety of methods to attack opponents, including censorship against those who question their political actions.
The language emanating from Leftist politicians is deeply troubling. The use of the phrase “seditionist” is no longer restricted to January 6 participants, but to all who don’t follow their beliefs. Recently, White House adoption of the phrase “Climate Emergency” appears to be a code phrase leading to a justification of imposing restrictions on the free market.
Much of the heated debate flaming across the nation is not political. It is, instead, indicative of a vast cultural divide that no single election can properly address or totally heal.
Covid exposed some of the rift that has developed. In an effort to stop the spread, both left and right acknowledged that certain nonessential activities needed to be avoided. They defined “essential” differently, however, based on their cultural inclinations.
With a rather unseemly haste, places of worship were closed. Even after the worst of the pandemic was over, many on the left were reluctant to open up churches and synagogues. What the nation’s Founders considered vital, Leftists considered trivial. The same Progressives who considered gatherings in houses of worship a threat saw no problem with mass demonstrations with participants standing side by side in the hundreds completely acceptable. Another facet was seen recently. While bending to popular will and maintaining the tradition of a National Day of Prayer, Biden’s proclamation managed to omit all mention of God.
The most basic underlying concepts that formed the United States have been openly abandoned by many. The new nation was unique in that it centered around the merits, rights, and responsibilities, of the individual. It didn’t matter whether one’s parents were royalty or vagrants; a person was to be judged on what he or she did. With the same reasoning, an individual was not to be rewarded or punished for what his or her ancestors did.
That idea is the very antithesis of current Progressive ideology, which views people are cogs in a larger wheel of race or other groupings. Concepts such as “reparations” are based on the deeds of generations past, not those currently in existence. Replacing the classic American idea of equality with “equity” is part of that theme.
There is a tie-in between the Left’s disdain of judging individuals on their own merits and the rejection of the Judeo-Christian ethic, which recognizes the unique value of each soul. It’s a trend that took root in the horrific totalitarian regimes of the past century. Communism, which was the basis of the USSR, envisioned a “New Soviet Man” who only saw himself as a part of a larger collective. Germany’s National Socialism reduced individual humans to nothing more than part of racial groupings.
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The rejection of individualism has an economic component. Referring to those who built businesses, Barack Obama, during his presidency, told those hard-working entrepreneurs that “They didn’t build that,” that somehow the countless hours they worked and sacrifices they made had no value.
The essential belief in equality under the law has been abandoned by the Left. The felonies committed by those with the correct Progressive ideological leanings appear to have a “get out of jail free” card. The current push to politicize the U.S. Supreme Court is part of that.
It’s not just that Americans are divided and arguing. That’s been a constant. Honest disagreement is not necessarily unhealthy if core principles are shared. But those core principles are no longer in vogue for too many. Even during the most tumultuous eras, recognition of the right to express one’s opinion kept the nation together. But the wholescale attack on the First Amendment that began in universities and spread to the larger population as well as corporate leadership has dramatically fouled that safety net.
If the assault came exclusively from an authoritarian-minded group of Washington politicians, corrective measures could be taken with far more ease than the culture-wide phenomenon of “cancelling” now dominating too much of society.
Elections will not resolve the challenge. Americans, as individuals, need to reassess whether the basic cultural, economic, and Constitutional principles that built the most successful society on Earth are worth preserving.
As of this week, a State Department press official Jalina Porter announced, American citizens will be able to choose if they feel are a man or woman and self-designate their gender on their passport. A State Department official said this “announcement is another example of our leadership.” Secretary of State Tony Blinken confirmed the US “will no longer require medical certification if an applicant’s self-selected gender does not match the gender on their other citizenship or identity documents.”
AFGHANISTAN
In response to a question by a reporter this week, State Department Spokesman Ned Price said that the US is not diminishing its relationship, or abandoning Afghanistan, because Washington will have a diplomatic relationship with the country. “Obviously, that relationship will look different with the military withdrawal underway,” he added. Last month, The Diplomat, reported that “The fear of potential aggravation of the political situation and worsening of security in Afghanistan, as well as the expansion of instability, is a matter of great regional concern. The power struggle between interest groups and political factions inside the Afghan government, as well the Taliban’s growing power, has the definite potential to change the U.S.-secured power equilibrium in Afghanistan.” At this point no one is certain what will occur as external forces seek to fill the power vacuum when US forces are fully withdrawn by September 11. It may lead to further instability in the region. Currently it is estimated that over 70,000 Afghan citizens who aided the US during the war, along with their families, may be eligible to come to the US due to ongoing security concerns for their safety. The State Department said about 9,000 are in the initial stage of the process pending applicant action.
CHINA
July 1 marked the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party. President Xi Jinping gave a speech in which he said that anyone “who dares oppose China will have their heads bashed bloody against the great wall….” When asked if the US had any pushback, Price said: “… we’re aware that the Chinese Communist Party commemorated its 100th anniversary today. We’re aware of President Xi’s remarks. We’ve taken note on them, but we’re not going to comment on the specifics. I think this administration, over the course of several months, has been very clear about our impressions of the CCP in general, but I don’t have a specific response for you on President Xi’s remarks today. To date, the Biden Administration appears to lack follow through on actions.
In response to reports that China is building over 100 new missile silos, Price said: “It reinforces the importance of pursuing practical measures to reduce nuclear risks.” Price added: “We encourage Beijing to engage with us on practical measures to reduce the risks of destabilizing arms races, potential – potentially destabilizing tensions. Given that earlier this year China refused senior US military officials’ requests to meet, this statement most likely will not change the level of danger posed by the silos or force China into talks.
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NORTH KOREA
Considering the challenging global issues faced by the United States and western democracies, it was interesting that in a shortened press briefing the State Department Spokesman took time to answer questions about the impact of North Korean President Kim Jong-un’s diet.
HONG KONG
The Deputy Assistant of State for East Asian Affairs, Jonathan Fritz, when asked about the situation in Hong Kong said that: “We hope Beijing will realize the truth: Hong Kongers aren’t the problem….” He pointed out that if Beijing doesn’t realize this the residents of Hong Kong will be “forced to flee.” Fritz added that he was “inspired to see the resilience of Hong Kongers in their pursuit of what the PRC promised them.”
DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.
Anyone “who dares oppose China will have their heads bashed bloody against the great wall…,” Chinese President Xi Jinping said in a July 1 speech he made celebrating the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The world is presenting China with a significant opportunity, according to Xi. Beijing, he says, plans to transform the international rules-based system into one more in line with China’s image of how the system should work. He believes it is Beijing that will determine and control the international political, military, and economic environment within the next few decades. Xi delivered his lightly veiled threats to the West in front of 70,000 people in Beijing. Under a Chinese-led global system, human rights abuses like those Beijing has committed against its Tibetan, Uighur, and Muslim minorities in western China, will be transformed into issues he says will be subordinated to the desires of the all-powerful Chinese state.
In search of profit many major Western companies like Nike and Under Armour, along with other manufacturers have overlooked the atrocities committed by the CCP to enable them to continue sourcing products in China to make bigger profits. Can the world afford to ignore a quickly rising China any longer or the potential threat the communist power poses as it extends its power further around the globe in the coming 100 years? Looking at the first 100 tells us what the CCP was capable of doing to its own population. It gives us insight into what the future might hold for those nations hostile to a Chinese-led system.
Tens of millions were murdered, tortured, and hundreds of millions had their lives destroyed by the CCP. Under Mao alone millions more “counter‐revolutionaries” and “landlords” were murdered while additional millions ended up in forced labor camps. The inhumanity is hard to reconcile; the numbers too large to envision. Imagine wiping out the entire population of New York City, Chicago, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and then more than doubling the number. The CCP’s “one child” family planning policies were so severe that China can no longer reproduce its own population. Many villages today are left entirely void of women in their child-bearing years.
To understand how draconian the CCP can be toward its own people one only has to look at how it administered family planning policies. Under Chinese law, a child is not considered a human being until it is fully emerged from the mother and the cord is cut. This definition is important as serves to legalize infanticide. In the 1980’s, Chinese cities and counties were given birth quotas to enforce each day. In several county hospitals in Inner Mongolia, for example, the quota was met regularly employing “post-birth abortion.” Women with valid permits allowing them to get pregnant within a specified 12-month period still might find themselves having a forced “post-birth” abortion if they went into labor after the daily quota was met.
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The method used, to ensure compliance with Chinese law, was to inject formaldehyde into the brain of the child as it crowned but before the cutting of the cord at birth. The child was born convulsing and soon died. After the cord was cut, the “abortion” would be deemed complete, and the quota limit met. The Reagan Administration opposed the CCP’s draconian policy and refused to contribute US government funds toward the United Nation’s PL-480 Food for Peace program. The formaldehyde use was purchased by China with the UN’s Food for Peace funds under its “family planning” program. Over the years the Western media has failed to cover some of the most horrific crimes against humanity committed by China.
Today, China’s Muslim Uighur minority are being persecuted and it is suspected that millions are being held against their will in forced labor camps that the CCP identifies as voluntary “re-education centers.” China’s technology today often equals or surpasses that of the advanced nations in the West. Given the CCP’s attitude toward human life, how dangerous will it be to the world in the future? No matter how scary the worst-case scenario, free nations can no longer ignore China’s historical behavior. To do so risks becoming subject to a communist nation that holds little regard for human life or Western values.
Photo: Xi Jinping, general secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee, Chinese president and chairman of the Central Military Commission, delivers an important speech at a ceremony marking the centenary of the CPC in Beijing, capital of China, July 1, 2021. (Xinhua/Ju Peng)
Vladimir Putin is playing Russian roulette with the Arctic’s fragile ecosystem while the world is focused on other challenges. Russia assumed the rotational leadership of the Arctic Council on May 17 this year, announcing that climate change was at the top of its lists of concerns. It is, however, little more than rhetoric. Only six days prior, the Russian Arctic endured yet another ecological disaster involving an oil spill. This one occurred in the northern Komi Republic. According to a report by the Jamestown Foundation, parts of the Kolva River became heavily contaminated with oil from the Osha hydrocarbon deposit. “Right from the start, the authorities’ response to the ecological disaster was marked by a lack of transparency and, apparently, lies from local officials,” according to Jamestown’s Paul Goble.
This is not the only instance in which Russian negligence cause an ecological disaster. The Ob River in the Yamal peninsula, in April was contaminated in several places with more than 56 tons of spilled oil products as well as pollution from of an earlier massive wildfire. On May 17, 3,000 gallons of oil were spilled in the Russian Arctic town of Dudinka. Arctic sea animals near the Kamchatka peninsula in the east have been killed and burned by chemicals recently from a large Russian, military polygon that stockpiles up to 300 tons of toxic materials. The ecological damage incurred by the Russian Arctic and Far East is not episodic: it is of a long-running systemic nature, with roots in the pre-1991 period, according to Goble.
Russia is a threat to the region and now, with its assumption as head of the Arctic Council, additional environmental and security issues are expected to arise. An October 2020 report from terra-ecology.ru said that in 2019, out of 17,000 accidents in Russia’s fuel-energy sector, more than 10,500 involved oil facilities, the majority of which are located in the High North. On average that equates to an ecological accident every thirty minutes. Russia’s northern strategy is to convince the other Arctic states to sign onto its vision for a “green” agenda for the Arctic Council. It is not a coincidence that Moscow’s version accepts virtually all of Russia’s expansive geographic and security claims in the high north.
Putin is signaling that he plans an activist role while Russia leads the Council during the next three years, according to political analysts in Washington. He intends to use this window of opportunity to coerce the Council to promote Russian interests, including the exploitation of mineral-rich Greenland. Should the island be willing to lean toward Russia it would be a major geopolitical victory over the United States and a loss for NATO. Russia would gain access to valuable minerals and solidify it military presence in the region. Just a decade ago, Russian commentator Artur Indzhiyev, wrote that “When the population of Greenland starts pursuing a more independent policy, it will rid itself of American military bases… What we need to do is to help them in their struggle for independence… Russia should understand one thing—the fight against NATO’s expansion should not be fought on our borders but on the territory of the Alliance.” Today we are hearing from political analysts in Moscow who are talking openly about the recent elections in Greenland, in which its voters decided to elect politicians who are more interested in getting involved in discussions concerning independence from Denmark.
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The Russian delegation to the Arctic council is welcoming Greenland’s new found independent voice and hoping to move it into the Russian column. Goble says that this does three things for Moscow. First, by reducing Danish influence on the island it opens new avenues for Russian mineral resource development. Second, it raises the question about the continuing local presence of US-NATO bases, even though Nuuk so far has denied discussing any change in their status. Finally, it could provide Putin with another ally in the Arctic when it comes to its claims to large portions of the seabed. To counter Russia’s moves, Washington opened a consulate in Greenland in April and is offering English-language lessons through a $12 million USAID development program. Is it too little, too late? Russia’s undersea shelf provides the basis for claims to 1.2 million square kilometers of the Arctic surface. It appears Greenland is set to become another location for great power rivalry as Russia, the US and China all vie for influence in the strategic and mineral recourse-rich region.
DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each thursday, she presents key updates on Russia.
The New York Analysis of Policy and Government presents the full text of the Director for National Intelligence Report on Unidentified Aerial Phenomena, popularly known as UFOs. We begin the report with the official press release, followed by the full text.
Statement by Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby on Unidentified Aerial Phenomena Assessment:
[T]the Director of National Intelligence [has]delivered to Congress a preliminary assessment on unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP) and the progress that the Intelligence Community and the Department of Defense UAP Task Force has made in understanding this threat.
Analyzing UAP is a collaborative effort involving many departments and agencies, and the Department thanks the Office of the Director of National Intelligence for leading a collaborative effort to produce this assessment, as well as the other contributing departments and agencies.
Incursions into our training ranges and designated airspace pose safety of flight and operations security concerns, and may pose national security challenges. DOD takes reports of incursions – by any aerial object, identified or unidentified – very seriously, and investigates each one.
The report submitted today highlights the challenges associated with assessing UAP occurring on or near DOD training ranges and installations. The report also identified the need to make improvements in processes, policies, technologies, and training to improve our ability to understand UAP.
This plan will be developed in coordination with various DOD components, including the military departments and the combatant commands, and with ODNI and other interagency partners. The plan will establish procedures for synchronizing collection, reporting and analysis of UAP; provide recommendations for securing military test and training ranges; and identify requirements for the establishment and operation of a new follow-on DOD activity to lead the effort, including its alignment, resources, staffing, authorities, and a timeline for implementation.
FULL TEXT OF THE REPORT
SCOPE AND ASSUMPTIONS
Scope
This preliminary report is provided by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) in response to the provision in Senate Report 116-233, accompanying the Intelligence Authorization Act (IAA) for Fiscal Year 2021, that the DNI, in consultation with the Secretary of Defense (SECDEF), is to submit an intelligence assessment of the threat posed by unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP) and the progress the Department of Defense Unidentified Aerial Phenomena Task Force (UAPTF) has made in understanding this threat.
This report provides an overview for policymakers of the challenges associated with characterizing the potential threat posed by UAP while also providing a means to develop relevant processes, policies, technologies, and training for the U.S. military and other U.S. Government (USG) personnel if and when they encounter UAP, so as to enhance the Intelligence Community’s (IC) ability to understand the threat. The Director, UAPTF, is the accountable official for ensuring the timely collection and consolidation of data on UAP. The dataset described in this report is currently limited primarily to U.S. Government reporting of incidents occurring from November 2004 to March 2021. Data continues to be collected and analyzed.
ODNI prepared this report for the Congressional Intelligence and Armed Services Committees. UAPTF and the ODNI National Intelligence Manager for Aviation drafted this report, with input from USD(I&S), DIA, FBI, NRO, NGA, NSA, Air Force, Army, Navy, Navy/ONI, DARPA, FAA, NOAA, NGA, ODNI/NIM-Emerging and Disruptive Technology, ODNI/National Counterintelligence and Security Center, and ODNI/National Intelligence Council.
Assumptions
Various forms of sensors that register UAP generally operate correctly and capture enough real data to allow initial assessments, but some UAP may be attributable to sensor anomalies.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The limited amount of high-quality reporting on unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP) hampers our ability to draw firm conclusions about the nature or intent of UAP. The Unidentified Aerial Phenomena Task Force (UAPTF) considered a range of information on UAP described in U.S. military and IC (Intelligence Community) reporting, but because the reporting lacked sufficient specificity, ultimately recognized that a unique, tailored reporting process was required to provide sufficient data for analysis of UAP events.
• As a result, the UAPTF concentrated its review on reports that occurred between 2004 and 2021, the majority of which are a result of this new tailored process to better capture UAP events through formalized reporting.
• Most of the UAP reported probably do represent physical objects given that a majority of UAP were registered across multiple sensors, to include radar, infrared, electro-optical, weapon seekers, and visual observation.
In a limited number of incidents, UAP reportedly appeared to exhibit unusual flight characteristics. These observations could be the result of sensor errors, spoofing, or observer misperception and require additional rigorous analysis.
There are probably multiple types of UAP requiring different explanations based on the range of appearances and behaviors described in the available reporting. Our analysis of the data supports the construct that if and when individual UAP incidents are resolved they will fall into one of five potential explanatory categories: airborne clutter, natural atmospheric phenomena, USG or U.S. industry developmental programs, foreign adversary systems, and a catchall “other” bin.
UAP clearly pose a safety of flight issue and may pose a challenge to U.S. national security. Safety concerns primarily center on aviators contending with an increasingly cluttered air domain. UAP would also represent a national security challenge if they are foreign adversary collection platforms or provide evidence a potential adversary has developed either a breakthrough or disruptive technology.
Consistent consolidation of reports from across the federal government, standardized reporting, increased collection and analysis, and a streamlined process for screening all such reports against a broad range of relevant USG data will allow for a more sophisticated analysis of UAP that is likely to deepen our understanding. Some of these steps are resource-intensive and would require additional investment.
AVAILABLE REPORTING LARGELY INCONCLUSIVELimited Data Leaves Most UAP Unexplained…
Limited data and inconsistency in reporting are key challenges to evaluating UAP. No standardized reporting mechanism existed until the Navy established one in March 2019. The Air Force subsequently adopted that mechanism in November 2020, but it remains limited to USG reporting. The UAPTF regularly heard anecdotally during its research about other observations that occurred but which were never captured in formal or informal reporting by those observers.
After carefully considering this information, the UAPTF focused on reports that involved UAP largely witnessed firsthand by military aviators and that were collected from systems we considered to be reliable. These reports describe incidents that occurred between 2004 and 2021, with the majority coming in the last two years as the new reporting mechanism became better known to the military aviation community. We were able to identify one reported UAP with high confidence. In that case, we identified the object as a large, deflating balloon. The others remain unexplained.
• 144 reports originated from USG sources. Of these, 80 reports involved observation with multiple sensors.
o Most reports described UAP as objects that interrupted pre-planned training or other military activity.
UAP Collection Challenges Sociocultural stigmas and sensor limitations remain obstacles to collecting data on UAP. Although some technical challenges—such as how to appropriately filter out radar clutter to ensure safety of flight for military and civilian aircraft—are longstanding in the aviation community, while others are unique to the UAP problem set. • Narratives from aviators in the operational community and analysts from the military and IC describe disparagement associated with observing UAP, reporting it, or attempting to discuss it with colleagues. Although the effects of these stigmas have lessened as senior members of the scientific, policy, military, and intelligence communities engage on the topic seriously in public, reputational risk may keep many observers silent, complicating scientific pursuit of the topic. • The sensors mounted on U.S. military platforms are typically designed to fulfill specific missions. As a result, those sensors are not generally suited for identifying UAP. • Sensor vantage points and the numbers of sensors concurrently observing an object play substantial roles in distinguishing UAP from known objects and determining whether a UAP demonstrates breakthrough aerospace capabilities. Optical sensors have the benefit of providing some insight into relative size, shape, and structure. Radiofrequency sensors provide more accurate velocity and range information.
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But Some Potential Patterns Do Emerge
Although there was wide variability in the reports and the dataset is currently too limited to allow for detailed trend or pattern analysis, there was some clustering of UAP observations regarding shape, size, and, particularly, propulsion. UAP sightings also tended to cluster around U.S. training and testing grounds, but we assess that this may result from a collection bias as a result of focused attention, greater numbers of latest-generation sensors operating in those areas, unit expectations, and guidance to report anomalies.
And a Handful of UAP Appear to Demonstrate Advanced Technology
In 18 incidents, described in 21 reports, observers reported unusual UAP movement patterns or flight characteristics.
Some UAP appeared to remain stationary in winds aloft, move against the wind, maneuver abruptly, or move at considerable speed, without discernable means of propulsion. In a small number of cases, military aircraft systems processed radio frequency (RF) energy associated with UAP sightings.
The UAPTF holds a small amount of data that appear to show UAP demonstrating acceleration or a degree of signature management. Additional rigorous analysis are necessary by multiple teams or groups of technical experts to determine the nature and validity of these data. We are conducting further analysis to determine if breakthrough technologies were demonstrated.
UAP PROBABLY LACK A SINGLE EXPLANATION
The UAP documented in this limited dataset demonstrate an array of aerial behaviors, reinforcing the possibility there are multiple types of UAP requiring different explanations. Our analysis of the data supports the construct that if and when individual UAP incidents are resolved they will fall into one of five potential explanatory categories: airborne clutter, natural atmospheric phenomena, USG or industry developmental programs, foreign adversary systems, and a catchall “other” bin. With the exception of the one instance where we determined with high confidence that the reported UAP was airborne clutter, specifically a deflating balloon, we currently lack sufficient information in our dataset to attribute incidents to specific explanations.
Airborne Clutter: These objects include birds, balloons, recreational unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), or airborne debris like plastic bags that muddle a scene and affect an operator’s ability to identify true targets, such as enemy aircraft.
Natural Atmospheric Phenomena: Natural atmospheric phenomena includes ice crystals, moisture, and thermal fluctuations that may register on some infrared and radar systems.
USG or Industry Developmental Programs: Some UAP observations could be attributable to developments and classified programs by U.S. entities. We were unable to confirm, however, that these systems accounted for any of the UAP reports we collected.
Foreign Adversary Systems: Some UAP may be technologies deployed by China, Russia, another nation, or a non-governmental entity.
Other: Although most of the UAP described in our dataset probably remain unidentified due to limited data or challenges to collection processing or analysis, we may require additional scientific knowledge to successfully collect on, analyze and characterize some of them. We would group such objects in this category pending scientific advances that allowed us to better understand them. The UAPTF intends to focus additional analysis on the small number of cases where a UAP appeared to display unusual flight characteristics or signature management.
UAP pose a hazard to safety of flight and could pose a broader danger if some instances represent sophisticated collection against U.S. military activities by a foreign government or demonstrate a breakthrough aerospace technology by a potential adversary.
Ongoing Airspace Concerns
When aviators encounter safety hazards, they are required to report these concerns. Depending on the location, volume, and behavior of hazards during incursions on ranges, pilots may cease their tests and/or training and land their aircraft, which has a deterrent effect on reporting.
• The UAPTF has 11 reports of documented instances in which pilots reported near misses with a UAP.
Potential National Security Challenges
We currently lack data to indicate any UAP are part of a foreign collection program or indicative of a major technological advancement by a potential adversary. We continue to monitor for evidence of such programs given the counter intelligence challenge they would pose, particularly as some UAP have been detected near military facilities or by aircraft carrying the USG’s most advanced sensor systems.
EXPLAINING UAP WILL REQUIRE ANALYTIC, COLLECTION AND RESOURCE INVESTMENT
Standardize the Reporting, Consolidate the Data, and Deepen the Analysis
In line with the provisions of Senate Report 116-233, accompanying the IAA for FY 2021, the UAPTF’s long-term goal is to widen the scope of its work to include additional UAP events documented by a broader swath of USG personnel and technical systems in its analysis. As the dataset increases, the UAPTF’s ability to employ data analytics to detect trends will also improve. The initial focus will be to employ artificial intelligence/machine learning algorithms to cluster and recognize similarities and patterns in features of the data points. As the database accumulates information from known aerial objects such as weather balloons, high-altitude or super-pressure balloons, and wildlife, machine learning can add efficiency by pre-assessing UAP reports to see if those records match similar events already in the database.
• The UAPTF has begun to develop interagency analytical and processing workflows to ensure both collection and analysis will be well informed and coordinated.
The majority of UAP data is from U.S. Navy reporting, but efforts are underway to standardize incident reporting across U.S. military services and other government agencies to ensure all relevant data is captured with respect to particular incidents and any U.S. activities that might be relevant. The UAPTF is currently working to acquire additional reporting, including from the U.S. Air Force (USAF), and has begun receiving data from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA).
• Although USAF data collection has been limited historically the USAF began a six month pilot program in November 2020 to collect in the most likely areas to encounter UAP and is evaluating how to normalize future collection, reporting, and analysis across the entire Air Force.
• The FAA captures data related to UAP during the normal course of managing air traffic operations. The FAA generally ingests this data when pilots and other airspace users report unusual or unexpected events to the FAA’s Air Traffic Organization.
• In addition, the FAA continuously monitors its systems for anomalies, generating additional information that may be of use to the UAPTF. The FAA is able to isolate data of interest to the UAPTF and make it available. The FAA has a robust and effective outreach program that can help the UAPTF reach members of the aviation community to highlight the importance of reporting UAP.
Expand Collection
The UAPTF is looking for novel ways to increase collection of UAP cluster areas when U.S. forces are not present as a way to baseline “standard” UAP activity and mitigate the collection bias in the dataset. One proposal is to use advanced algorithms to search historical data captured and stored by radars. The UAPTF also plans to update its current interagency UAP collection strategy in order bring to bear relevant collection platforms and methods from the DoD and the IC.
Increase Investment in Research and Development
The UAPTF has indicated that additional funding for research and development could further the future study of the topics laid out in this report. Such investments should be guided by a UAP Collection Strategy, UAP R&D Technical Roadmap, and a UAP Program Plan.
APPENDIX A – Definition of Key Terms
This report and UAPTF databases use the following defining terms:
Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAP): Airborne objects not immediately identifiable. The acronym UAP represents the broadest category of airborne objects reviewed for analysis.
UAP Event: A holistic description of an occurrence during which a pilot or aircrew witnessed (or detected) a UAP.
UAP Incident: A specific part of the event.
UAP Report: Documentation of a UAP event, to include verified chains of custody and basic information such as the time, date, location, and description of the UAP. UAP reports include Range Fouler1 reports and other reporting.
1 U.S. Navy aviators define a “range fouler” as an activity or object that interrupts pre-planned training or other military activity in a military operating area or restricted airspace.
APPENDIX B – Senate Report Accompanying the Intelligence Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021
Senate Report 116-233, accompanying the Intelligence Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021, provides that the DNI, in consultation with the SECDEF and other relevant heads of USG Agencies, is to submit an intelligence assessment of the threat posed by UAP and the progress the UAPTF has made to understand this threat.
The Senate Report specifically requested that the report include:
1. A detailed analysis of UAP data and intelligence reporting collected or held by the Office of Naval Intelligence, including data and intelligence reporting held by the UAPTF;
2. A detailed analysis of unidentified phenomena data collected by:
a. Geospatial Intelligence;
b. Signals Intelligence;
c. Human Intelligence; and
d. Measurement and Signatures Intelligence
3. A detailed analysis of data of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, which was derived from investigations of intrusions of UAP data over restricted U.S. airspace;
4. A detailed description of an interagency process for ensuring timely data collection and centralized analysis of all UAP reporting for the Federal Government, regardless of which service or agency acquired the information;
5. Identification of an official accountable for the process described in paragraph 4;
6. Identification of potential aerospace or other threats posed by the UAP to national security, and an assessment of whether this UAP activity may be attributed to one or more foreign adversaries;
7. Identification of any incidents or patterns that indicate a potential adversary, have achieved breakthrough aerospace capabilities that could put U.S. strategic or conventional forces at risk; and
8. Recommendations regarding increased collection of data, enhanced research and development, additional funding, and other resources.
By any measure, the Biden Administration is in deep trouble.
Since taking office, The U.S. Southern Border has devolved into chaos. The Chinese and Russians are returning to aggressive acts that had not been seen since the Obama-Biden White House days. Race Relations continue to deteriorate. Inflation has made a comeback. Riots, once thought to be a reaction to Trump, continue unabated. The Middle East, which had been improving under the prior president, has taken a severe turn for the worse. Violent crime is growing by the day. The nation has been repeatedly cyber-attacked. China’s bioterror assault on the planet, performed maliciously or negligently, remains unpunished.
The Trump Administration had extraordinary success in the Middle East, which the media for the most part sharply underreported. Biden reversed the former President’s get-tough policy on Iran, and the results have been devastating, as Tehran funnels cash and advanced weaponry to Hamas and others.
Inflation, long tamed, has made a dramatic comeback under Biden, threatening to bring back the “stagnation” era that characterized the Jimmy Carter Administration. The U.S. economy, which should have rebounded sharply as COVID wound down, remains relatively sedate.
Listening to the mainstream media and the speeches by Progressive elected officials, however, is similar to a trip to a parallel universe. Rather than the real-world crises listed above, a panoply of issues more appropriate to a faculty lounge at a leftist university (which constitutes most of higher education) than to the overwhelming majority of Americans takes center stage.
Those topics are frequently lacking in data to support the notion that they do, in fact, constitute vital national challenges.
The current vogue distraction issue is “white supremacy.” An intensive search for actual statistics backing up charges that white supremacists constitute a threat doesn’t turn up very much. The Lawfare organization notes: “…attempt to figure out the amount of violent crime committed by white supremacists, internationally or domestically, and you’ll find yourself sorting through various government documents that are incomplete in a number of ways, covering only a small set of offenses or failing to label the offender’s ideology with specificity.”
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What about the “systemic racism” dilemma? the claim of systemic racism is wholly false. There are no laws, regulations or procedures that allow racism. Heather MacDonald, writing for the Manhattan Institute, reports: “This charge of systemic police bias was wrong during the Obama years and remains so today…A solid body of evidence finds no structural bias in the criminal-justice system with regard to arrests, prosecution or sentencing. Crime and suspect behavior, not race, determine most police actions.”
There is also much concentration, particularly in “blue” states, on keeping America locked down in response to COVID. Again, the facts don’t seem to matter. Jurisdictions that loosened restrictions are doing as well or even better than those with stiff rules.
Next on the list is man-made climate change. During the year of COVID, polluting activities were brought to an extensive slow down. The result? According to the NOAA, “Atmospheric carbon dioxide peaked for 2021 in May at a monthly average of 419 parts per million (ppm), the highest level since accurate measurements began 63 years ago.” If all the allegations of human impact were accurate, that level should have dropped precipitously.
These policy failures are an embarrassment to the national media, whether in print, on television, and especially the internet which did so much to get Biden elected.
Rather than candidly report on these dramatic policy missteps, biased journalists distract with inflammatory issues that lack substance. Next up, UFOs. For several weeks, many news outlets have teased stories about the impending release of Pentagon and other data about aerial phenomenon. Don’t expect much hard-core information, let alone an interview with E.T.
But it will allow the media to, once again, take your attention away from Bidens’ failures.
Biden’s recent address on crime again portrayed a leader who appeared exhausted and somewhat disoriented. These ongoing incidents of the President appearing less than fully competent has led a number of worried Congressional Representatives to request that he take a cognitive exam.
The following is the text of their letter, sent to the President on June 17:
Dear President Biden,
We write to you today to express concern with your current cognitive state. We believe that, regardless of gender, age, or political party, all Presidents should follow the precedent set by former President Trump to document and demonstrate sound mental abilities.
The American people should have absolute confidence in their President. They deserve to know that he or she can perform the duties of Head of State and Commander in Chief. They deserve full transparency on the mental capabilities of their highest elected leader. To achieve this, we urge you to submit to a cognitive test immediately. We implore you to then publish the test results, so the American people know the full mental and intellectual health of their President, and to set an example for all Presidents to follow going forward.
Previously, while on the campaign trail, you agreed to a similar assessment. At first, you “grew testy” and questioned “why the hell would I take a test,” according to an AP report. Later, you relented and said you were “very willing to let the American public judge my physical, mental – my physical, as well as my mental fitness and to, you know, to make a judgement about who I am.”
As you may remember, starting in 2018, political opponents and members of the media clamored for then-President Trump to take a cognitive test. In response, the White House Physician conducted a Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MOCA) for President Trump, at which he excelled.
According to Dr. Ziad Nasreddine, the neurologist who created the test, MOCA is a simple screening tool to identify early signs of mental impairment.? Dr. Nasreddine said the test is best administered when a person or their loved ones “start noticing mental decline,” particularly forgetfulness on ordinary tasks. MOCA results allow a medical expert to identify “cognitive impairment that comes with diseases like Alzheimer’s, stroke, or multiple sclerosis.” This is pertinent since it was publicly documented during your candidacy that you had previously suffered from aneurysms associated with at least one hemorrhagic stroke. Certain behaviors that signal someone should take the exam include “patients repeating themselves, losing car keys frequently, forgetting recent events, and multiple instances of forgetting conversations.” Unfortunately, your forgetfulness and cognitive difficulties have been prominently on display over the past year.
Unfortunately, your mental decline and forgetfulness have become more apparent over the past eighteen months. In March, you forgot the name of the Pentagon, the Department of Defense, and the Defense Secretary, though you had said “Secretary Austin” just a few moments prior. The official White House transcript reads, “And I want to thank Sec- — the former general — I keep calling him ‘General.’ My — the guy who runs that outfit over there.”
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Additionally, at the end of February, you visited Houston to survey the winter storm damage, where you misidentified the time of day and Senator John Cornyn’s title, and you mispronounced Congresswoman Sheila Jackson Lee’s first name and Congresswoman Lizzie Fletcher’s maiden name of Pannill. Then, apparently forgetting the purpose of your visit, you questioned, “what am I doing here?” The White House transcript from 4:30 CST reads “…it’s dinner time. Good afternoon — or almost. Actually, it’s evening. And I want to thank you, Governor and Mrs. Abbott, for your hospitality and your friendship. And Representative — Senator Cornyn, I think he had to go back; I think he’s getting on a plane. He told me last — he came in to see me last event. And Representatives Sheila Jackson Lee, Al Green, Sylvia Garcia, Lizzie Pannilli [sic] — excuse me, Pannill [Fletcher] — and — what am I doing here? I’m going to lose track here.”
In May, you remembered an article from “my fourth or fifth year as vice president…” that said, “Biden travels 1,300,000 miles on Air Force One,” though, as you know, the Vice President actually travels aboard Air Force Two. You continued the story to explain that you took frequent trips home that year because your mom was sick, and to remember an Amtrak conductor named Angelo Negri who congratulated you on reaching 1,500,000 career miles on Amtrak. However, the timeline of that story does not match up. Your fourth year as vice president would have been 2013, Negri’s obituary states he retired from Amtrak in 1993, and your mother passed away in 2010.
Finally, in March of 2020, you started to recite the oft-quoted first line of the Declaration of Independence, but you seemingly forgot the phrase. You stated, “We hold these truths to be self-evident. All men and women are created, by the, you know, you know the thing.”? Most school-age children could recite that famous and revered patriotic phrase by heart, but you could not.
As Democratic Representative Jamie Raskin previously pointed out, with many politicians and the population at-large growing older, “it’s not hard to think that there will be future situations where the president’s physical and mental state may create issues for us.” At the time of this quote, Representative Raskin was introducing legislation to establish an independent commission that could examine a President’s fitness for office and determine “whether the President is mentally or physically unable to discharge the powers and duties of the office.”
We agree with the statements put forth by Representative Raskin. As such, we encourage you to follow the example set by President Trump, by undergoing a cognitive test as soon as possible and immediately making the results available for the American people.
CC: Kevin O’Connor, D.O., Physician to the President Anthony Fauci, M.D., Chief Medical Advisor to the President
Thank you,
(Letter signed by Representatives Ronnie Jackson, Bob Gibbs, Jeff Duncan, Andy Harris, Brian Babin, Jody Hice, Claudia Tenney, Kat Cammack, Jerry Carl, Pat Fallon, Diane Harshberger, Beth Van Duyne, W. Gregory Steube, Tom Tiffany)
At a Friday press conference in Paris, Secretary of State tony Blinken responded to a question about US involvement in Afghanistan by stating that he wanted “to reiterate an important point that sometimes gets lost, which is that even as we are withdrawing our forces from Afghanistan, we are not disengaging from Afghanistan; to the contrary. We’re working very hard to sustain a strong, diplomatic presence – not only our diplomatic presence, but with partners as well to sustain many of the programs that we’ve had in place to support Afghanistan economically: development assistance, humanitarian assistance, assistance to the Afghan security forces. He added that the US is also trying to make good on promises made to Afghan interpreters who worked for the US there and are now in danger of retribution.
IRAN
Iranian President-elect Raisi has been accused by numerous human rights groups of serious rights abuses dating back to the 1980s. When asked at a press conference this week if the US could, in all good consciousness, lift sanctions on Iran without a proper international probe into the allegations of human rights and other abuses, Secretary Blinken responded: “This is about pursuing our fundamental interests. And an Iran with a nuclear weapon or with a capacity to produce one on very short order is an Iran that is even more dangerous than it already is – an Iran can act with even greater impunity when it comes to supporting terrorism, destabilizing the region, engaging in proliferation. So we have a national interest in trying to put the nuclear problem back in the box that it was in under the JCPOA that unfortunately it is now out of. And at the same time in doing that, we will retain all of the necessary tools to deal with Iran’s actions in other areas that are profoundly dangerous and destabilizing.”
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The United States is pleased announced that the Agreement to Prevent Unregulated High Seas Fisheries in the Central Arctic Ocean which was negotiated and sign in 2018 will enter into force June 25, 2021. This is the first multilateral agreement of its kind to take a legally binding, precautionary approach to protect an area from commercial fishing before such fishing has begun.
There were ten participants in the negotiation of and Signatories to the Agreement: Canada, the People’s Republic of China, the Kingdom of Denmark (in respect of the Faroe Islands and Greenland), the European Union, Iceland, Japan, the Kingdom of Norway, the Republic of Korea, the Russian Federation, and the United States of America. In recent years China has labeled itself a “near Arctic” nation and increased its involvement in the region. Given China’s historical lack of adherence to other agreements, it is unknown if this will prevent Chinese overfishing of the fragile Arctic environment.
THURSDAY PRESS BRIEFING AT THE STATE DEPARMTENT The State Department this week continued to appear less than forthcoming in responding to straight forward questions from reporters at the official briefing. While there are times when it is not possible to release sensitive information, the current Administration often is unwilling to address very basic questions. These are only a few of the responses to various reporters’ questions from Thursday’s official State Department briefing. “I don’t have anything to announce or report…,” “I don’t have any specific updates…,” “We have nothing to announce…,” “We don’t have anything to announce…,” “We’ll have to take that back and get back to you…,” “I don’t have anything to share…at this time…,” and “We’re continuing to work on…” the issue. Such obfuscation leaves little room for confidence in the Biden Administration’s foreign policy during a period in American history where international challenges loom large on so many fronts.
DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government. Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.
