Author: Daria Novak

Most Americans know where Russia is located on a map. Some people also can find Ukraine and the Crimean Peninsula. Few, however, know where the Donbas region is or why it is increasingly important to the United States, NATO, and Western Europe since the fall of Afghanistan last week. The mostly unrecognized Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) is part of eastern Ukraine, under the control of separatists, and managed by Russia since Putin’s 2014 annexation of Crimea. It is an area where since 2008 Russia has dealt with regional hostilities by working with the separatists to test its advanced electronic warfare (EW) capabilities and Information Operations (IO) on those supportive of the Ukrainian government. 

During the active testing phase between 2014 and 2017 the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) were unable to withstand the Russian-backed separatists use of EW and IO. The government in Kiev knows Putin is preparing for a future engagement using these new capabilities, including electronic jamming of satellites, spoofing of GPS signals, and degrading radio communications of the enemy, among others. When Biden ordered the US evacuation of Afghanistan, the Russian president already had a tested military toolkit ready to go. With tensions escalating in the Donbas this year analysts believe Putin may be willing to provide additional advanced EW and drones (UAV assets) and unmanned aerial combat vehicles to the separatists in eastern Ukraine. 

While it appears that Putin doesn’t want to get involved directly in a large-scale operation in the Ukraine this year, it is evident Moscow will support the Donbas separatists economically, politically, and with military training and technology. Now that the failed American military retreat from Afghanistan is complete, Putin may be reassured about moving faster and farther into Europe starting with the Donbas. Understandably, tensions among NATO Members are running high as the risk level increases along the European-Russian borderlands.

Russia’s concept of “information confrontation” (informatsionnoye protivoborstvo) encompasses EW and IO. Recent technological advances make its use in offensive and anti-drone warfare possible. Putin has learned valuable lessons since 2014 about what works well and how to incorporate its integrated testing into Russia’s military strategy. According to Sergey Sukhankin, of the Jamestown Foundation, Russia’s offensive and defensive use of information security is not new, but it has evolved greatly in recent years. That gives military analysts in Washington cause for concern.

Russia is known to employ information confrontation to supplant its conventional weaknesses. The challenge for the United States post-Afghanistan is to prepare for how a future war with Russia might unfold and not to plan simply according to how Russia has conducted past military campaigns. Unlike democratic countries in the West, Putin’s information warfare is an ongoing operation even during peacetime, designed to win political supremacy in the information domain. The botched US retreat from Afghanistan provides Russia new avenues of opportunity to go after in Central Asia and the Ukraine with little likelihood of facing a direct confrontation with the United States. 

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A 2019 Canadian government Defense Research and Development Report, notes that “nations that believe they understand Russian information warfare on the basis of current studies and are responding by preparing for currently visible threats and capabilities are likely out of date and may be surprised by Russian operations in the information space.” Today Information-Technological Confrontation and Information-Psychological Confrontation are two advanced elements of warfare tested successfully in the Donbas. Putin is using them to ensure that nations bordering Russia are unable to effectively comply with Article 5 of the NATO Charter to provide mutual defense when another NATO Member is attacked. On the technical side, Russia conducts tests and employs EW and electronic intelligence, electro-optical, acoustic warfare, and offensive and defensive use of information security in Donbas. On the Information-Psychological side Russian targets in eastern Ukraine are the human consciousness, neurological systems (both individual and collective, including military formations), state ideology, and national consciousness, according to Sukhankin. 

Although Russian activity in the Donbas since 2019 remains at a lower level than earlier in the decade, Putin still has active measures ongoing throughout the region. The main aspects of information confrontation extensively tested by Russia in Crimea and Donbas actually have been “informational-psychological operations as well as the radio-electronic suppression of enemy EW. Consequently, the war in Donbas provides only a narrow window on Russia’s offensive capabilities in electronic warfare; its full potential in this space is yet to be discovered,” according to Sukhankin. Will Putin put these advanced capabilities fully in the hands of the separatists in Donbas to further his agenda now that the Biden Administration is retreating from Central Asia? The timing and failure of the US departure from Afghanistan is certain to embolden Putin, raise the security threat to NATO Member states, and potentially start a war in Europe. The little known Donbas region may end up ground zero in the next conflict.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Thursday, she presents key updates on Russia.

Photo: Donbas

How have overtly irrational perspectives, unsupported by history, science, or logic, gained the upper hand in American civil discourse?  Why have the overtly and dramatically successful concepts of inherent rights and capitalism been so persistently purged?  How have clearly false narratives gained the upper hand?

The answer is a combination of intimidation, censorship, and thinly veiled threats. An Education News editorial explained:

“Disturbingly, progressives have concluded that they simply will not tolerate Christianity, patriotism or push-back against their transformation of America. Progressives’ behavior tells us that if it takes violence to purge conservatives from America, so be it… Progressives demand that we ignore thousands of years of wisdom, commonsense and scientific truths…”

That most fundamental of American ideas, the very concept of rights emanating not from those in power but from God or nature has been drastically assaulted.

The use of logic and evidence in political theory have been shoved aside. Numerous examples abound of how this wreaked havoc on society.

American citizens are being told that, despite socialism’s century of horrific results, that the unparalleled economic success of capitalism should be replaced with its clearly failed concepts.

The argument has been made that, despite the absence of a single discriminatory law, rule or regulation, that “systemic racism” exists. The false claim has unnecessarily sparked racial animosity to an extraordinary level.

City inhabitants are forced to accept a growing, deadly nightmare of crime that Progressive policies of police defunding, bail elimination, early jail releases, and tolerance for aberrant behavior have caused.  

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Despite an approaching national debt exceeding $30 trillion, taxpayers are informed that even more debt must be adopted, and that their nation must provide welfare to the rest of the planet. 

These overtly flawed concepts have succeeded in dominating America’s political and social conversations, through both the elimination from conversational acceptability of more rational ideas, and the sources from which they flow.

The knowledge of how successful basic American concepts, such as devotion to the Bill of Rights and the economic principles of capitalism have succeeded, has been drummed out of our schools, originally at the university level but now prevalent throughout education. Many of the most strident proponents of leftist concepts operate out of ignorance, for they were not given the basic instruction in how these ideas created the most prosperous and liberated society in human history.

Luke Smith, writing in the Harvard Crimson in 2003 noted:

“After four years at Harvard, students can graduate … without knowledge of Aristotle, Shakespeare… or even the Constitution of the United States. The present structure of Harvard’s Core Curriculum allows students to escape all of these topics and replace them with multicultural alternatives…students can readily substitute for “Democracy in America and Europe” courses like “Gendered Communities: Women, Islam, and Nationalism in the Middle East and North Africa.” The distinction between these two topics is clear. The first has profoundly impacted the structure of Western government, the formation of Western values and the fabric of a Western way of life. The latter has not. It is embarrassing that Harvard students can graduate ignorant of major Western authors and philosophers.”

Those “Dead White Guys” deleted from higher education include not only the profound people and documents mentioned, but also the bedrock concept of our civilization, the Judeo-Christian ethic.  The purge of religion begins at the lowest levels of grammar school, where it is now increasingly common to see discussions of sexual matters. But a mere mention of Christ, Moses or the gifted works of the religions they inspired merits imminent sanctions or dismissal.

There is a significant reason for that defensiveness against both the Judeo-Christian ethic and the Bill of Rights. Those unique philosophies are based on the divine worth of each human being, a concept anathema to those socialists who see individuals only as a cog in the wheel of society. They will use any method to censor out anyone who points out that uncomfortable truth.

Painting: Benjamin Franklin

It sounds wrong on its face – “President Joe Biden…announced (on July 29, 2021)  sweeping new pandemic requirements… Federal workers will be required to sign forms attesting they’ve been vaccinated against the coronavirus or else comply with new rules on mandatory masking, weekly testing, distancing and more.”  This follows shortly after  “California Governor Gavin Newsom announced (on July 26, 2012) that his state will require all state employees and healthcare workers to provide proof of vaccination or be subject to regular COVID-19 testing. On August 5, 2021, the California Department of Public Health issued a public health order implementing the governor’s prior proclamation as it relates to healthcare workers in the state.”  Then, on August 18, 2021, “Washington Governor Jay Inslee expanded his state’s vaccine mandate to include all education staff, faculty, and on-site contractors.  The mandate extends to employees working in K–12 settings, most childcare and early learning, and higher education.” 

Federal and many state employees are not the only ones facing mandatory vaccinations.  “More than a dozen large U.S. corporations, including Walmart, Google, Tyson Foods and United Airlines, have recently announced vaccine mandates for some or all of their workers… Google and Facebook have mandated Covid immunizations for anyone returning to their U.S. offices. Walmart, which has 1.6 million U.S. employees, has imposed a vaccine mandate for all corporate and management staff, while store employees must wear masks in high-risk counties.” 

In particular, both state hospitals and private healthcare companies have jumped on the bandwagon of mandating vaccines for their employees.  At last count, this includes Envision Healthcare in Nashville, Tennessee, Presbyterian Healthcare Services in Albuquerque, New Mexico, Akron Children’s Hospital in Ohio, and the states of Oregon, Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island. 

In particular, healthcare workers who have not complied with these mandates have lost their jobs; “Former Houston Methodist nurse Michelle Fuentes told KRIV-TV she was fired and escorted from the hospital after refusing to meet the hospital’s deadline to get vaccinated.

Fuentes said she was waiting for a “little bit more research to be done” on the vaccines and had turned in her two weeks’ notice after refusing to get one, but was terminated before her planned resignation date… Jennifer Bridges, another nurse at Houston Methodist, which is the first hospital in the country to require all employees to be vaccinated, told KHOU-TV she plans to file a lawsuit against the hospital challenging the mandate… Desiree Pelletier had a similar story, telling WPMT-TV she was being fired from her job at a Pennsylvania behavioral health center for refusing to get the vaccine.” 

The natural question which arises in the mind of many freedom-loving Americans, who bristle at the idea of anything mandatory – can they do that?  Is it legal to mandate vaccinations as a condition of employment?

The short answer is, yes.  But as usual, there are exceptions.  To assert these exceptions, however, will be a struggle.

So far, legal action against employers who mandate vaccines has not been successful.  “More than 100 nurses and other healthcare employees filed suit against their employer, Houston Methodist Hospital and Houston Methodist The Woodlands Hospital, under Texas common law, claiming that it is unlawful for Houston Methodist to require the vaccine… On June 12, 2021, after denying the employees’ request for a temporary restraining order…U.S. District Judge Lynn N. Hughes inoculated employers from such challenges (at least in Texas) by kicking the lawsuit out of court because ‘Texas law only protects employees from being terminated for refusing to commit an act carrying criminal penalties to the worker … [and r]eceiving a COVID-19 vaccination is not an illegal act, and it carries no criminal penalties.'”

Judge Hughes went on to state that “employers are not ‘coercing’ employees to get vaccinated when implementing policies requiring vaccination. He explained…'[Plaintiffs] can freely choose to accept or refuse a COVID-19 vaccine; however, if [they] refuse, [they] will simply need to work somewhere else.'” 

Requiring healthcare workers to submit to a vaccination as a condition of their employment is nothing new.  In fact, 17 states “require hospitals to offer employees flu shots or track their vaccination statuses,” including Colorado, Georgia, Illinois, Maine and Maryland.  But requiring private corporate staff, or all federal and state employees, and not just those involved in healthcare, is something new.

The federal government has made it clear that they will support implementation of mandatory vaccination measures.  “The U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC), the agency that enforces laws against workplace discrimination, offered the guidance because the Americans With Disabilities Act of 1990 puts limits on employers making it mandatory that employees receive medical examinations that ultimately reveal private information about an employee’s physical or mental conditions…the commission explained a COVID-19 vaccination requirement does not bring up these ADA issues.  ‘If a vaccine is administered to an employee by an employer for protection against contracting COVID-19, the employer is not seeking information about an individual’s impairments or current health status,’ the commission said, ‘and, therefore, it is not a medical examination.'”  

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However, “(t)here are options for employees who can’t get a vaccine due to a disability or who do not wish to get a vaccine. Workers can seek a vaccine exemption on medical grounds or due to religious beliefs, said Dorit Reiss, a law professor at the University of California, Hastings, who specializes in legal and policy issues related to vaccines.  Reiss said that if employees have medical reasons or sincerely held religious beliefs that prevent them from receiving a vaccine, employers may be required to give the workers a reasonable alternative to continue to work. Also, the EEOC guidance said that even if an employer finds that a worker who cannot be vaccinated poses a risk to the workplace, the employer cannot prevent the employee from working or fire them unless the employer cannot provide a reasonable accommodation that would reduce this risk to others.” 

Expect there to be bitter legal fights over what constitutes an exception to the vaccination policy being implemented in most places.  “(F)ederal anti-discrimination laws don’t prohibit employers from requiring all employees who physically enter the workplace to be vaccinated for COVID-19. Employers that encourage or require vaccinations, however, must comply with the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA), Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and other workplace laws, according to the EEOC.”  Yet, “(t)he (EEOC) added that requiring an employee to show proof of vaccination is not a disability-related inquiry. ‘There are many reasons that may explain why an employee has not been vaccinated, which may or may not be disability-related,’ the commission said.” 

Then there is the attractive issue of an employee asserting a religious accommodation. “Title VII requires an employer to accommodate an employee’s sincerely held religious belief, practice or observance, unless it would cause an undue hardship on the business… (t)he definition of religion is broad and protects religious beliefs and practices that may be unfamiliar to the employer. Therefore, the employer ‘should ordinarily assume that an employee’s request for religious accommodation is based on a sincerely held religious belief,’ according to the EEOC. ‘However, if an employee requests a religious accommodation, and an employer is aware of facts that provide an objective basis for questioning either the religious nature or the sincerity of a particular belief, practice or observance, the employer would be justified in requesting additional supporting information.'” 

There are additional issues involved with mandated vaccinations.  “The federal Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) is warning employers that they will be held liable for any adverse events resulting from mandatory Wuhan coronavirus (Covid-19) ‘vaccination’ policies.  If an employee who was forced to be injected with experimental mRNA gene therapy becomes paralyzed or dies, for instance, that injury or death will be considered ‘work-related,’ meaning the employer will be held responsible… (w)hat this means is that employers who try to force their employees to get injected are opening themselves up to lawsuits, worker’s compensation claims and a negatively impacted safety record.” 

Of course, not every state in our union has followed the federal government’s lead in this matter.  “On May 7, 2021, Montana governor Greg Gianforte signed into law Montana House Bill 702, under which Montana became the first jurisdiction to recognize an individual’s vaccination status as a protected category. The law also prohibits employers from requiring employees to disclose their immunization status and bars employers from requiring employees to receive certain types of vaccines or to possess an immunity passport… (u)nder the law, businesses, governmental entities, and places of public accommodation may not refuse to serve or withhold goods from any person ‘based on the person’s vaccination status or whether the person has an immunity passport.’ Likewise, employers may not discriminate against or refuse to employ an individual based on whether the person has been vaccinated or possesses an immunity passport. The law bars employers from requiring employees to receive vaccines, such as the current COVID-19 vaccine…” 

While Montana’s law is a hopeful development, let’s face the facts – the choices here are not good.  Unless you are willing to struggle for a medical or religious accommodation, your employer is going to most likely be able to dictate a medical choice to you.  This is not to discourage you, the reader, from asserting your personal freedom from medical treatment with which you do not agree, or are not comfortable receiving.  But you can expect a battle with an employer who wants their employees vaccinated.  

Ultimately, you may end up unemployed, and in fact, you may end up fighting for your unemployment benefits, since “someone fired for breaking a company policy…can be denied benefits.” 

But I will remind you of one phrase that defines this struggle – freedom is not free. 

Judge Wilson served on the bench in NYC.

Illustration: Pixabay

The extraordinary influence China wields over American politicians, especially highly placed Democrats, is already dangerous, and growing more prevalent.

It has been reported that Huawei has hired key Clinton aide Tony Podesta, currently a major Democrat lobbyist, for “consulting work.” Huawei is a major security concern for its efforts to insinuate itself into the western communication infrastructure.

The financial ties between China and the Biden Administration are well known. The relationship appears to have begun when Hunter Biden flew to China with then-Vice President Joe Biden aboard Air Force 2, and returned home with a vast financial gain, in return for no discernable commercial service.

As described by Sean Hannity of Fox News, “Let’s start with the obvious. We know Chinese nationals, why were they spending millions of dollars and giving private equity deals to Hunter Biden? No expertise that we can find. Nothing on his resume that stood out to us … these Chinese nationals, what were they looking for? They were buying access, meaning buying influence. The question… is, just how much access did they get?” 

Since then, Joe Biden has downplayed Beijing’s rapidly growing military and economic misdeeds and threats. Just one example: during an Iowa campaign stop, he stated, against all contrary evidence, “China is going to eat our lunch? Come on, man. I mean, you know, they’re not bad folks, folks. But guess what? They’re not competition for us.”

Chinese communists have already made extensive use of the California Democratic Party to conduct surveillance on American political activity.  Senator Dianne Feinstein’s chauffeur, who according to CBS News, ”also served as a gofer in her Bay Area office and was a liaison to the Asian-American community (who) even attended Chinese consulate functions for the senator” was a Chinese spy, reporting to the Chinese government about local California politics for 20 years. 

The Chinese communist spy who compromised Congressman Eric Swalwell, Fang Fang, also “socialized, networked with Rep. Judy Chu and then-Rep. Mike Honda, campaigned for now-Rep. Rho Khanna, volunteered for Bill Harrison, the mayor of Fremont, California at the time, fundraised for people such as Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, and in some cases, developed romantic or sexual relationships with politicians to gain intelligence and send it back to her handlers, who were believed to be stationed in mainland China.” 

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In addition to downplaying Beijing’s massive conventional and nuclear military buildup, not responding effectively to its intense espionage is a major concern. 

The most recent example concerns Juan Tang, a “researcher” who had hidden ties to the Chinese military captured during the Trump Administration. She has now been allowed to return to China.

Beijing’s relationship with the Biden family and the Democrat Party has allowed it to treat the U.S. with arrogance. 

Recently, reports American Military News, Chinese diplomats gave Deputy Secretary Wendy Sherman a list of alleged American “wrongdoings” along with a demand that they be halted. Included were an insistence that Beijing’s media outlets and campus “Confucius Institutes,” (both propaganda outlets for the Chinese Communist Party) not be forced to register as foreign agents.

As China intensifies its arms buildup, engages in military aggression, and deepens its illicit interference within American politics, (Example: Beijing has significant financial ties to Black Lives Matter) the Biden Administration has provided reassuring statements of its commitment to protecting the U.S. Unfortunately, its actions fail to match its words.

The recent Defense budget submitted by the White House to Congress fails to even keep pace with inflation, even as the Pentagon struggles to retool a military worn down by years of combat in the Middle East and Afghanistan.  That trend was recently noticed by the Wall Street Journal’s editorial board,  which recently stated that “A troubling pattern is emerging in President Biden’s foreign policy: Officials talk tough—then follow up with diplomacy that amounts to little.”

Photo: Pixabay

AFGHANISTAN

Although President Biden admitted this week that the US has been in talks with the Taliban, Secretary of State Antony Blinken in a Sunday interview on Face the Nation contradicted his boss and denied that the US Government is negotiating with the Taliban. When further asked if it was true that Washington had to ask the terrorist organization if Americans could leave, Blinken responded: “They are in control of Kabul. That is the reality. That’s the reality that we have to deal with.”  Many analysts in Washington already are calling the withdrawal one of nation’s worst foreign policy disasters in our entire history.

President Biden has been widely criticized for giving a list naming Americans residing in Afghanistan, a so-called hit list by some, to the Taliban terrorist leadership with a “request” that they leave Americans alone while they are preparing to leave Afghanistan. Many of America’s allies are questioning US global leadership, mocking the president, and re-evaluating the value of maintaining or depending on a close relationship with the US.

Government officials in Washington made public statements this week saying that the President determined the US needed to leave Afghanistan to concentrate on great power competition with China. Former National Security Advisor Condoleeza Rice responded, saying “China, Russia and Iran have taken our measure. The pictures of the past few days will emblazon an image of America in retreat. Now is the time to reinforce our commitment to Ukraine, Iraq and particularly Taiwan.” 

There are over 170 dead and more than 200 injured from the recent bombings at Karzai Airport in Kabul. These numbers may continue to climb in the coming days as many of the injuried are in critical condition and additional attacks are anticipated in Kabul.

GERMANY AND US ALLIES

Armin Laschet, the likely successor to German Chancellor Merkel contradicted Secretary of State Blinken’s assertion that America’s allies are content with the United States keeping its commitments, saying “This is the biggest debacle that NATO has seen since its foundation.”  Other nations, including the chairman of the British Parliament’s Foreign Affairs committee openly disagreed with Biden about the Afghan military running away, saying: “To see their commander-in-chief [Biden]call into question the courage of men I fought with, to claim that they ran – it’s shameful.  Those who have never fought for the colors they fly should be careful about criticizing those who have.” Throughout the Western world there is shock and disbelief among America’s allies and partners that the Biden Administration failed so badly in Afghanistan. 

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When Blinken was asked by a reporter on Sunday if the President knows what is going on with our allies, the Secretary attempted to place the blame on those questioning the Biden Administration, saying: “This is an incredibly emotional time for many of us, and including allies and partners who have been shoulder-to-shoulder with us in Afghanistan for 20 years at high cost to themselves as well as to us.”  

SYRIA

Saturday, August 21, marked the eighth anniversary of the chemical attack in Syria in which  the Assad regime released the nerve agent sarin on its own people in the Ghouta district of Damascus, killing more than 1,400 Syrians, many of them children.  In a written statement released by the State Department this week, the US said it will “continue to call upon the Assad regime to fully declare and destroy its chemical weapons program in accordance with its international obligations.”  Syrian leaders have not responded to the suggestion from Washington.

ISRAEL

Blinken met with Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett on Wednesday in Washington, D.C.  He  emphasized the importance of the US-Israel partnership and discussed regional security issues, including Iran.  The Secretary and the Prime Minister underscored the strength of the  bilateral relationship during this turbulent period and Blinken reiterated the US commitment to Israel’s security.  

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Saturday, she presents key updates on U.S. foreign policy from the State Department.

Illustration: Pixabay

Some political strategists in Washington are taking on a second job as “wallpaper hangers” this past week. They are working overtime to cover up the Biden-Harris Administration’s Afghanistan debacle, claiming it was “necessary” so the US can “concentrate” on great power competition with China. What they fail to acknowledge is that China remains an intricate factor increasing the threat to the security environment since the fall of the government. The overall Central Asian region also is more destabilized due to China’s relationship with various factions of the Taliban leadership both in- and outside Afghanistan. No amount of double-talk can paste over the Biden Administration’s mess or make it disappear from the West’s scrutiny. China has been politically active in Central Asia for many years. The breadth of its interests in the region range from securing its own border areas against Islamist incursions, to expanding its sphere of political influence, and extending its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). On balance, the fall of Afghanistan is good for China, not America.

On August 16, one day after the Taliban took over Kabul, Hua Chunying, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman announced in a press conference in the Chinese capital that it was “ready to continue to develop good-neighborliness and friendly cooperation with Afghanistan and play a constructive role in Afghanistan’s peace and reconstruction.” Hua added, “We hope the Afghan Taliban can form solidarity with all factions and ethnic groups in Afghanistan and build a broad-based and inclusive political structure suited to the national realities….” It was not an immediate recognition of the Taliban. Using acceptable international diplomatic practices when to its advantage, Beijing cited the custom that recognition of a nation-state is to be withheld until a government is formed.

China has more than one ulterior motive that explains how it is handling the Afghanistan issue. The country’s rare earths, precious gems, geographic location, and severing of its ties with democratic states are all positive factors favoring Beijing. President Xi Jinping is a superb strategist, however, and knows to be cautious about moving too fast. The unrest in China’s western Uyghur region remains a thorn in Xi Jinping’s side despite his crackdown of the Muslim minority groups in the area. Some Uyghur Islamist extremists live outside China in nearby Central Asian countries. Xi is disquieted that potential unrest from these minority groups could spillover inside China’s borderlands in the Xinjiang-Uyghur Autonomous Region. Second, China recognizes there could be instability from future civil conflict inside Afghanistan that spreads across Central Asia, another situation he hopes to avoid. China has economic interests in Afghanistan and has invested over $60 billion in Pakistan in infrastructure development under its BRI. The potential economic and political payoffs loom large if Xi plays the game well. 

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On Tuesday US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi spoke on the phone about what China is requiring the US to do to gain its cooperation in Afghanistan. The tone of diplomatic exchange between the two nations was one of a overlord ordering a supplicant, according to sources with knowledge of the exchange. This week on Wednesday China’s President spoke with the leaders of Iran and Iraq and Wang discussed the situation with his counterparts in Pakistan and Turkey. China is playing power broker in the region and openly suggesting that “democratic transitions” don’t work, the US has failed in its commitment to Afghanistan and, predicting that Washington will fail to stand by Taiwan. However unlikely that the Biden Administration will abandon Taiwan, Wang still attained points in the public relations Cold War with the US. The fast fall of Afghanistan and the US withdrawal of its military before its US citizens sent shock waves through Asia. Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen has been uncharacteristically quiet about the situation. China’s strategic patience is likely to result in its securing access to several trillion dollars in rare earths and other gems needed to run a modern economy. It also will further limit the United States’ ability to secure the processed material it needs for America’s national security as China already controls 95% of the global supply of rare earths.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Friday, she presents key updates on China.

Illustration: Pixabay

Putin is smiling wide this week as his “…propaganda machine describes the hasty and disorganized withdrawal of the United States and allied forces from Afghanistan, along with the collapse of their Afghan allies, as a turning point, signaling the decline of US regional and global power and credibility,” says Pavel Felgenhauer of the Jamestown Foundation. Earlier this week the Russian publication RG.RU called out President Biden saying, “Perhaps the 78-year-old US president has already forgotten, or perhaps does not want to remember, what he promised the Afghans and the whole world 20 years ago, when he supported the invasion of Afghanistan. But to his misfortune, the American archives and the vastness of the Internet store all of his statements. It is not surprising that Biden limited himself to a statement and did not accept questions from the press – too much in his words was anti-history.” Another Russian publication depicted side-by-side quotes from Biden in which he earlier supported US troops in Afghanistan and then later on “changed his shoes” [smenil obuv’] and spoke against it. Russian publications across the board mocked the President. 

They quoted his 2000-2001 speeches, including one before the US Senate in which he said: “Security is a basic issue for Afghanistan. We must do it at all costs. History will judge us harshly if we let the hopes of the freed Afghans evaporate as we go astray.” Russian writers also used quotes from American publications against Biden, including a 2010 Business Insider article which quoted Biden as saying “To hell with this, there is no need to worry about it. We did this in Vietnam, Nixon and Kissinger got away with it.” Propaganda with a twist of truth is effective and this week Moscow was at work at home and abroad.

The Russian propaganda machine was in full swing this week taking advantage of every perceived US weakness and contradictory statement made by President Biden to show the world the Washington is a changeable partner when it comes to foreign policy. The Russian government pushed the idea that Washington will be a fair-weather friend should Putin decide to move in the Ukraine and suggested it would be better for Kiev to align with Moscow over Washington.

Felgenhauer says that the speaker of the State Duma (lower chamber of the Russian parliament), Vyacheslav Volodin, “has written that the entire US foreign policy is collapsing.” He points out that  Volodin accuses Washington of facilitating an increase of opiate production in Afghanistan “hundreds of times” while impoverishing the Afghan people. The US and its Western allies have been spending staggering amounts of money to “promote democracy,” but the results have been of little value.” Nikolai Patrushev, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan’s Russian counterpart in US-Russian consultations, also was active this week accusing the US military of “misappropriating billions of taxpayers’ dollars designated to arm and train the Afghan security forces that melted away as the Taliban swept in.” 

Patrushev, Putin’s go to, right-hand man claimed the Americans were involved in Afghan opioid production and trade and the US military-industrial complex profiteered on procurement connected with the war. In the Russian publication Izvestia, Alexey Zabrodin wrote that Patrushev called Ukrainian leaders US lackeys and suggested to abandon the US. The Secretary of the Russian Security Council pointed out to Ukrainians that the US set Afghanistan back decades and suggested that is what will happen to them if they side the United States. 

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According to Zabrodin, “The confidence of the military and political leadership of the United States and its allies that they fully controlled the situation in Afghanistan led to ignorance and underestimation of the real situation… This is partly the result of the incompetence of the intelligence services of the United States, Britain and other NATO countries, which, apparently, did not sufficiently purposefully approach the collection and analysis of information or did not work well with it.” 

Effective propaganda contains a bit of the truth. It encourages the reader to accept that the story is plausible, perhaps probable, and this week certainly unforgettable. With Russia’s assistance, the Ukraine and America’s allies will have a difficult time erasing this week in history from their memories. 

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Thursday, she presents key updates on Russia.

Photo: Vladimir Putin (Russian government site)

The Arms Control Association  reports that “the U.S. intelligence community describe[s] how China is pursuing ‘the most rapid expansion and platform diversification of its nuclear arsenal in its history’ and is intending to ‘at least double the size of its nuclear stockpile during the next decade.’”

Satellite photos indicate that China is building significant ICBM facilities in its Northwestern Gansu province, according to reports obtained by the Washington Post.   Russian sources note that over 100 new missile silos have been constructed. That number is expected to double within a year.

It’s all part of one of the least-reported stories on the popular news circuit: the reality that China has caught up to the United States in many military areas, and even surpassed America in some areas. Its navy, for example, is larger and more modern than the Pentagon’s.

The Nuclear Threat Initiative organization notes that “China possesses  a range of ballistic missile capabilities, and the ability to develop chemical and biological weapons…China is diversifying and modernizing its nuclear arsenal, and U.S. officials and experts remain concerned about the lack of transparency surrounding China’s nuclear arsenal and doctrine. China closely guards information about its nuclear arsenal, making estimation unusually difficult. However, China has approximately 320 nuclear warheads…”

 China has placed multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) warheads on some of its ICBMs ; although still under development, the road-mobile DF-41 is capable of being equipped with MIRV warheads.

In addition,  it has at least four operational JIN-class (Type 094) nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBN) with two more under construction, all of which carry the JL-2 submarine launched ballistic missile (SLBM).

Jeffrey Lewis, Director of theEast Asia Nonproliferation Program for the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, recently wrote in Foreign Policy that China’s rapid nuclear weapons development is “Jawdropping…[the newly constructed sites cover over] more than 700 square miles. There are the silos. There are also underground bunkers being built that may function as launch centers, with trenches carrying cables to 10 different silo launchers. There are roads and a small military base. The scale of construction is startling, and China broke ground on the site only a few months ago, in February.

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What makes discussion of this threat problematic is the refusal of many in the west to even acknowledge China’s threatening military buildup. In 2019, Alan Shaffer, then deputy under secretary of defense, acquisition and sustainment, stated “’We’ve been in conflict with China for 10 years and I’m not sure we know it. But we’ve got to wake up to it,”

Mathew Kroneig, writing for The Wall Street Journal, explains that “China is engaging in a massive nuclear-arms buildup as part of its broader strategy to challenge the U.S.-led rules-based international system, and the U.S. will need to respond by updating its nuclear program to defend itself and the free world…The new missile silos in the desert are part of a Chinese nuclear buildup that includes new submarines, bombers, and ballistic and hypersonic missiles. U.S. defense officials, including Commander of U.S. Strategic Command Charles A. Richard, have publicly testified that China’s nuclear arsenal will double, if not triple or quadruple, within the decade.”

China’s nuclear threat to the United States must be seen in tandem with that of Russia’s, Moscow has not only modernized its forces, it has increasingly emphasized the use of nuclear weapons in expanded circumstances, including conventional warfare.

As the Heritage Foundation notes, the U.S. has largely elected to maintain aging nuclear warheads based on designs from the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s that were in the stockpile when the Cold War ended. Since the end of the Cold War, America’s increasingly outdated force has shrunk dramatically.

As China and Russia modernize and expand their nuclear forces, the Biden Administration continues to ignore the danger. A Congressional Research Service Report found that The Biden Administration, in its Interim National Security Strategic Guidance, indicated that the United States would “take steps to reduce the role of nuclear weapons in our national security strategy…”

Photo: The formation of Dongfeng-41 nuclear missiles takes part in a military parade celebrating the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in Beijing, capital of China, Oct. 1, 2019. (Xinhua/Xia Yifang)

President Biden rejected reality in his statements on Afghanistan. In doing so, he has followed a pattern emblematic of the Left.

Yes, there was general agreement about leaving that nation, but the manner in which it was done was incompetent, heartless, and utterly irrational. There was absolutely no need to abandon American civilians, our allies’ servicemembers, and Afghan citizens who aided our forces, not to mention leaving billions of dollars in advanced weaponry to our enemies. That’s not an opinion; it’s fact.

That refusal to acknowledge hard facts has become the hallmark of the Left, not just in foreign affairs, but in almost all realms of discourse. Perhaps the second-best example, aside from Biden’s bizarre Afghanistan comments, was broadcast on TV screens last summer, when the acts of hordes of violent criminals burning buildings, looting stores, invading police stations and attacking innocents were described as “peaceful protests.”

There is not a single law or regulation that permits racial discrimination against minorities. As the left’s charge of America being racist disintegrates in the light of facts, the Left’s response is to make up new “facts.”  A prime example: The sheer nonsense of the 1619 Project and Critical Race Theory, devoid of accuracy and thoroughly unsupported by history, has been rammed through the media and the educational system through unrelenting pressure, defiling the nation’s schools and the national conversation.

There is a pattern that is consistently followed. Make any statement of fact that the Left doesn’t like, and a prompt and completely baseless response is made alleging that “there is no proof” or “your facts are wrong.” When those nonsensical allegations fail to convince, step two is taken: censor those who speak the truth. If that doesn’t work, step three occurs: attack the person, not the position. The opposition is branded as a warmonger, racist, or other extreme and false adjective. If that doesn’t work, step 4 is taken: destroy the commentator’s means of support, by pressuring his employer or sponsor to fire or silence the “offender” under threat of boycott. Currently, Fox News commentator Tucker Carlson is the subject of this assault.

A dramatic example was observed during the Trump years.  He bluntly exposed the Left’s rejection of facts, and the failures of their policies. Rather than debate the facts he presented, he was personally and relentlessly attacked, using charges that have since been proven to be wholly false.

Why did this descent towards demagoguery occur? The answer lies in the very nature of the Left’s failed beliefs, which can very generally be described as socialism at home and carelessness abroad. The two are connected. Socialism devastates the economy, and funds must be found to at least delay the inevitable bankruptcy that follows. Those dollars, at least for a time, are drained from the defense budget.

Socialism, for over a hundred years, has failed miserably across the globe, the latest example being Venezuela. The facts just don’t work for the Left, and so they must be silenced, denied, or overlooked, just as they deny that their anti-middle class, anti-business policies are actually socialist.

Similarly, a refusal to stand ones’ ground abroad, whether by ignoring threats or stripping assets that could deter aggression, has failed to stop wars or promote peace. Appeasing Hitler in the 1930s turned out to be a terrible mistake, and the violence of World War 2 was the result. The Soviet Union was getting militarily more threatening (even as its economy was crashing) but fortunately, President Reagan’s Peace Through Strength initiative prevented a Third World War.

When facts are denied, censored, or ridiculed, intelligent, civil, and rational discourse becomes impossible. The Left’s tactics not only produce bad policies, they divide the nation.

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Illustration: Pixabay

Following Bidens’ stunning debacle in Afghanistan, some members of the media, which had done so much to tilt reporting to get him elected and subsequently mask the incredible collection of his young presidency’s failures, finally began to show some glimmer of journalistic ethics, belatedly questioning his decision-making skills.

Biden had been gifted with news coverage that glossed over a panoply of his Administrations’ extraordinary list of failures. Any single one of those fiascos would be sufficient to sink a presidency over a four-year period. The White House’s numerous debacles in just seven short months has been largely overlooked.

The Biden-Harris induced collapse of the southern border and the transport of illegals across the United States, with no substantive attempt to deal with the probability of their Covid positivity (coming from regions with extremely low vaccination rates) has been glossed over. The killing of the Keystone-XL pipeline, while helping Russia develop its Nord Stream pipeline, has been largely ignored. The reluctance to provide any encouragement to the people of Cuba in their struggle to gain a measure of freedom has been shamefully disregarded, as was the hiring of individuals more interested in politics than performance. The appointment of politically-biased defense leaders was disregarded. Mixed messaging on COVID was given the silent treatment. The new President, who campaigned on promises to be a “unifier,” has used exceptionally divisive language. And of course, the ethical implications of the Biden family’s financial gain from China has not been given the examination it so desperately deserves.

But the totally and unnecessarily botched Afghanistan withdrawal was broadcast live directly into American homes, and even the most devotedly partisan newscasters couldn’t afford to continue their coverups. Biden himself essentially pushed his media allies over the edge when he, and his key spokesperson Jen Psaki, only reluctantly and belatedly disturbed their vacations to communicate with the public on the disaster. Biden’s refusal to answer questions following his initial scripted statement was a middle-finger salute to the press that clearly aggravated his friends, and his petulant performance in his George Stephanopoulos interview made things even worse.

There is a larger issue, an overarching concern that was excluded from the national discussion by both the Democratic Party leadership and their media allies. Biden’s mental deterioration was clearly obscured during the election, as one of his opponents’ campaigns noted.

Writing in the New Yorker, Jeannie Suk Gersen reported that “Bernie Sanders’s surrogates and supporters promoted the hashtag #WhereIsJoe, implying that Biden’s campaign was keeping him out of sight to hide mental infirmity. Glenn Greenwald, founder of the Intercept and an outspoken Sanders supporter, tweeted that “the steadfast, willful refusal of Dem political & media elites to address what is increasingly visible to the naked eye — Biden’s serious cognitive decline — is frightening.”

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The press was not totally missing in actions. The Boston Herald’s Howie Carr wrote last October “The media have been ignoring and/or covering up Biden’s obvious mental decline for more than a year now, even though the video evidence is at their fingertips.”

The reality of Biden’s reduced capabilities was intentionally hidden from the public, but the Democratic Party leadership was not in the dark. Despite that, they did not intervene in his obviously poor choice for Vice-President. 

Kamala Harris’ lack of qualification has played out in public since the inauguration. Given Biden’s challenges, a more qualified running mate should have been a clear priority. But the demographic lure of a minority female apparently took precedence over the obligation to produce at least one member of a White House ticket that was fit for office.

The American people have been damaged by the triumph of partisanship over patriotism. The party leaders who presided over this should be held accountable.

Photo: White House