Author: Daria Novak

President Biden has strengthened Russia’s position in Central Asia, according to senior political analysts in Washington, and raised national security concerns for Moscow in Eastern Europe. The regional, political-military environment is slowly coming into focus two months after the mangled US withdrawal in Afghanistan and the picture is stunning, but for all the wrong reasons. President Vladimir Putin is effectively using the botched American intervention to lecture Russian students returning to school this fall on lessons they can learn from the dramatic failure of the American experience. “The Afghanistan debacle has further added credence to Moscow’s claims of Western hypocrisy and failed US democratic state-building,” according to Dominick Sansone, writing in Defense One. He says the repercussions from Afghanistan are destabilizing and reverberating throughout Russia and Eastern Europe. Putin is particularly concerned that the regime collapse in Kabul could inspire anti-Putin domestic groups and East European dissidents, while simultaneously destabilizing Central Asian governments currently leaning toward Moscow. 

Putin served as a career intelligence officer with an expertise in misinformation, disinformation, and propaganda before moving fully into Russian domestic politics. He increasingly has used those skills to his advantage this fall by utilizing the state-controlled media to exhort the Russian people, including students, to study American behavior and what he labels as regime toppling failure and anarchy creation– American style. His talks are broadcast over a number of state-run stations to ensure they reach the widest audience possible across the country. Speaking on state media, Putin said that the US imposed its “own norms and standards of life,” and that it has “spelled nothing but tragedies, casualties and losses for the United States.” Playing the role of wise leader, he suggests “it is imperative to put an end to the [United States’] irresponsible policy of imposing outside values on others, to the desire to building democracies in other countries according to other nations’ “patterns” without regard to historical, national, or religious specifics and totally ignoring the traditions of other nations.” Putin speeches this fall are noticeably devoid of any discussion of Russia’s past behavior in the Crimea or Eastern Europe. 

From the Russian perspective, it is only the Biden Administration’s actions in Afghanistan that have raised the national security threat level along its borderlands in Eastern Europe. Moscow’s leaders have experienced, and long-feared, border wars in Eastern Europe. According to the “Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation” approved by Putin five years ago this month, “Contemporary Russia entered the global arena (following the breakup of the Soviet Union) possessing a tremendous amount of historical experience in international relations and a broad network of multilateral and bilateral relationships.” The foreign policy environment today, according to Putin, serves as both an indicator of, and determining factor for, stability inside Russia and over its borders. It is his position that he must defend Russia from US interventionist policy, according to Sansone. Putin already blames the US for the Ukrainian “color revolution” in Kiev. Now he is warning Russians who may be considering supporting domestic opposition leaders, like Alexei Navalny, to take notice. It appears that Putin’s speeches are unifying much of the population behind him.

Putin points to the inability of the Biden Administration to safely evacuate its own citizens, and Afghans who helped the US during the war. He claims this is indicative of a declining power and comes with a destabilizing effect on other countries. Sansone suggests “The inept US administration and poor military leadership also reflect a decreased capability to defend Washington’s allies. This weakens the strategic position of the United States in Eastern Europe and increases the likelihood of heightened tensions in the region.” East Europeans who believe they cannot count on the support of Washington, may strike out on their own.

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Add to this uncertain security equation that Putin firmly believes the US is Russia’s chief adversary and that Washington wholly intends to surround and infiltrate Russia. The security situation is less murky than a month ago as the West can see more of what Putin fears and the potential for conflict if an imbalance arises. The question military planners in Washington need to consider is, how far will Putin go to ensure that those who oppose him, or support the West, make no progress. From an American perspective, Putin himself may end up the most destabilizing force in Eastern Europe and Central Asia in the coming year.

DARIA NOVAK served in the United States State Department during the Reagan Administration, and currently is on the Board of the American Analysis of News and Media Inc., which publishes usagovpolicy.com and the New York Analysis of Policy and Government.  Each Thursdat she presents key updates on Russia.

Illustration: Pixabay

America’s fractured population can’t seem to find a common path to have a less contentious conversation. There is a reason for that.

The traditional divide, Democrats and liberals vs. Republicans and conservatives, has been replaced by a new gap, pitting those who choose realism against those whose perception of actual facts has been overshadowed by their biases. The lines aren’t always along party affiliation, as witnessed by the fights within the Democratic Party of realists such as Joe Manchin and Krysten Sinema against Joe Biden and the Progressive caucus.

The fever pitch among realists against the progressive’s immigration, spending, defense, crime and education policies is fueled by what they perceive, correctly, as being the latter’s disregard for the truth. The Biden Administration’s misstatements about Afghanistan, the nonsensical statement that spending $3.5 trillion won’t cost anything and the taxes that support it will not touch the middle class, the claim that “the border is under control” are examples of blatant falsehoods that many believe are arrogant insults to the general citizenry.

Underlying much of the Left’s views on the economy is a refusal to acknowledge the history of socialist societies, which for over a century have failed to produce desirable results. Their belief that currency can be infinitely printed without consequences, in defiance of historical examples such as Germany’s hyper-inflation in the early years of the Twentieth Century, is leading to disaster. America is already close to $29 trillion in debt, amounting to $220,000 per household. Adding more is irresponsible. President Biden insistence that spending trillions will have a “zero price tag,” and foolish statements from progressives such as Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-NY) that spending $3.5 trillion would be only a “modest investment” defy logic.

The Pentagon was left out of the Biden’s proposed spending spree. He sent a package for defense to Congress that, accounting for inflation, resulted in a cut of 2.6%. That figure utterly ignored the massive threats from China’s largest in the world navy, Russia’s globe-leading nuclear arsenal, North Korea’s atomic belligerence, the growing power of terrorist forces, and Iran’s impending weapons of mass destruction breakout. The White House preferred to ignore major dangers abroad in order to divert funds towards its gargantuan social spending programs. Pretending those threats do not exist is a disservice to the nation and an extraordinary exercise of foolishness.

Several Republican senators warn that “President Biden’s budget proposal cuts defense spending, sending a terrible signal not only to our adversaries in Beijing and Moscow, but also to our allies and partners.”

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Add to all that, the White House’s disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan, which it insists was a success, inflames realists who can easily see through the blatant falsehood.

Similarly, the lack of candor about the southern border and the nearly unchecked flood of illegal immigration has captured the attention and sparked the anger of realists.   Similar to the Afghanistan mess, Biden has not only failed to accede to the reality of his failed policy but has bizarrely called it a success, despite the enormous evidence to the contrary.  

Mark Morgan, Former Acting Commissioner, U.S. Customs and Border Protectio,n recently wrote in Imprimis “In just a few short months, the Biden Administration has created a disaster on the southern border of the United States. It did so by methodically—and by all indications intentionally—undoing every meaningful border security measure that had been in place. As a result, we have had five straight months of over 170,000 illegal immigrants apprehended at the border. The number in June was the highest in over 20 years. And Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) has been effectively shut down. Our national discussion of border security is generally misleading, and it is designed to be misleading by those who favor open borders.”

“Intentionally misleading” may well be the mantra of the delusionists who have created so much anger and pain throughout the U.S.A.

Illustration: Pixabay

With so much on the line in the Middle East, why have Progressive activists, and some key Democratic Party leaders been so critical against Washington’s key ally in the region?

Iran is on the cusp of becoming a nuclear-weapons power. American Military News reports that Israel’s Defense Minister Benny Gantz and alternate Prime Minister warned that Tehran is moving rapidly ahead with its nuclear weapons program. In violation of its  2015 Iran nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).  The U.S. withdrew from the pac t in protest over Iran’s persistent violations. Gantz noted that Iran could enrich uranium to weapons-grade levels very shortly. Recently, he pleaded with the United Nations Security Council to take note of the crisis and to respond accordingly.

The Mullahs ruling the Islamic Republic have not been shy about their determination to destroy both Israel and the United States.

Iran’s despicable acts are far more widespread than its atomic weapons drive, but Progressives have not made the terrorist nation the subject of their ire. Rather, they focus on its most immediate target, the nation of Israel. That’s consistent with the anti-Semitism of the American Left.

Jacob Dennen, writing in Digital Commons, reveals that “In recent years, anti-Zionism and anti-Israel rhetoric have become hallmarks of the American Left. Moreover, many on the Left have downplayed or denied the severity of antisemitism.”

From current members of the “squad”, including Congressional members Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, (D-NY) Jamaal Bowman (D-NY), Illiam Omar (D-MN), Ayannar Pressley (D-Ma), Rashida Talib (D-MI), and Corey Bush (D-MO), to the former vice-chair of the Democratic Party Keith Ellison and others, there is a clear anti-Israel and anti-Semitic wing that has emerged within the Democratic Party, a reflection of the growing influence Progressive have on Democrat leaders.

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It may go much higher than Congressional representatives.

Writing in Newsweek, Bruce Abramson and Jeff Ballabon asked in 2020, “Why Won’t Joe Biden Repudiate Anti-Semitic Democrats?… Anti-Semitism has been on full display among Democratic leaders and left-wing protest groups alike in recent years. Leaders of the Women’s March, for example, proved so undeniably anti-Semitic that even former DNC chair Debbie Wasserman-Schultz felt compelled to distance herself. Yet those same anti-Semites…were featured speakers at this summer’s Democratic convention. The Women’s March since recruited new leaders—who proved to be just as anti-Semitic.

Black Lives Matter protests have likewise featured anti-Semitic slogans from the beginning. BLM’s official platform accuses Israel of genocide, endorses BDS and expresses such blinding anti-Semitism that even many desperate to support the organization have dissented… These groups form the new base of Biden’s Democratic Party. But the strain of anti-Semitism runs deep. Biden was only the most recent Democratic leader to embrace Al Sharpton, whose anti-Semitic rhetoric led to the 1991 Crown Heights pogrom and the 1995 Freddy’s Fashion Mart massacre. Louis Farrakhan is rapidly becoming acceptable among the Democratic mainstream. In 2008, the Obama campaign paid to bury a then-recent photo of their candidate with Farrakhan. Today, New Jersey senator Corey Booker expresses a willingness to meet him. Last month, Biden and VP candidate Kamala Harris ran to meet and praise known Farrakhan supporter Jacob Blake, Sr.”

A Gatestone Institute study, written by Alan M. Dershowitz, reviewed the effort by Squad, who have outsized influence on the Democratic Party, and discussed that groups efforts to eliminate funding for the “Iron Dome” project, a purely defensive system that seeks to protect Israeli civilians from terrorist missile attacks.  Its technology has far-reaching uses for the U.S. as well. Dershowitz writes: “The time has come, indeed it is long past, for the Democratic leadership to stand strong against the anti-American, anti-Israel and anti-decency squalid Squad. The leadership can no longer stand idly by the bigotry of their members. If they persist in tolerating the intolerable, they will lose the support of the all-important mainstream voters.”

Picture: Rashida Talib (Congressional photo)

In September, Senator Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) complained that “For months, I’ve been calling on the Biden administration to get serious about combatting fentanyl knockoffs, which led to a record number of overdose deaths in the United States last year…it appears that the Biden Administration cares more about avoiding new penalties than holding drug traffickers accountable for fueling an opioid epidemic that continues to destroy families and erode communities across the country…” 

 Opioid overdose deaths rose 30 percent in 2020, fueled largely by engineered substances that mimic fentanyl.

The fentanyl crisis began in earnest during the Obama-Biden  Administration. The Washington Post termed the issue the “Obama Fentanyl Failure,” noting:

 “The fentanyl crisis represents an extraordinary public health challenge — and requires an extraordinary public health response… experts wrote to six [Obama] administration officials, including the nation’s ‘drug czar’ and the chief of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The administration considered the request but did not act on it. The decision was one in a series of missed opportunities, oversights and half-measures by federal officials who failed to grasp how quickly fentanyl was creating another — and far more fatal — wave of the opioid epidemic. In the span of a few short years, fentanyl, a synthetic painkiller 50 times more powerful than heroin, became the drug scourge of our time. Fentanyl has played a key role in reducing the overall life expectancy for Americans.”

The DEA notes that “Drug trafficking organizations typically distribute fentanyl by the kilogram.  One kilogram of fentanyl has the potential to kill 500,000 people.”

 According to that agency, Illicit fentanyl, primarily manufactured in foreign clandestine labs and smuggled into the United States through Mexico, is being distributed across the country and sold on the illegal drug market. 

The dramatic increase in illegal entry into the U.S. during the Biden Administration does not bode well for the coming year’s statistics.

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Testifying before the United States Senate Caucus on International Narcotics Control Caucus   in 2019, U.S. Customs and Immigration Enforcement (ICE) Assistant Director Mathew C. Allen stated:

“Illicit Fentanyl, Fentanyl analogies, and their chemical precursors are most often produced in China.  From China, these substances are shipped primarily through mail carriers directly to the U.S., or through TCOs in Mexico, Canada, and the Caribbean.  Once in the Western Hemisphere, fentanyl or its analogues are prepared and then mixed into heroin supply, pressed into pill form, then moved to the illicit U.S. market where dependency on prescription opioids ad heroin remains at epidemic proportions. In some cases, traffickers have shipped industrial pill pressed from China to the United States to operate fentanyl pill press mills domestically.  Mexican TCOs also receive shipments of fentanyl, fentanyl analogues and their precursors directly from China.  There is strong evidence that large shipments of fentanyl move from China to Mexico and the shipments are not opened until they are within the United States.  Mexican cartels have seized upon this business opportunity because the profit potential of synthetic opiods and have invested in growing their share of the market.  Because of its low dosage range and potency, one kilogram of fentanyl purchased in China for $3,000-$5,000 can generate upwards of $1.5 million in revenue on the illicit market…”

According to the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission,  China remains the primary country of origin for illicit fentanyl and fentanyl-related substances trafficked into the United States.

 The organization notes that “…Chinese traffickers are using various strategies to circumvent new regulations…China’s weak supervision and regulation of its chemical and pharmaceutical industry also enable evasion and circumvention.”

Mexico has become a major entryway for fentanyl to the U.S.  That nation’s infamous cartels work with Chinese suppliers. Cartel drug money is laundered through China’s financial system.

 There is very little genuine cooperation between Washington and Beijing.

Picture: Pixabay

AFGHANISTAN

The Department of State announced that it is providing an additional $144 million in humanitarian assistance to those in Afghanistan and to Afghan refugees in the region. “This assistance is provided directly to independent humanitarian organizations, including the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), International Organization for Migration (IOM), the World Health Organization (WHO), and other international and non-governmental organizations following extensive vetting and monitoring,” according to a statement released by the Department. At the same time officials announced the US is looking for funding from private American citizens to assist with costs associated with resettling refugees. This comes as the Biden Administration faces continuing criticism for its hand ling of the evacuation of Americans from the country. Some political analysts are citing sources in country saying that over 100,000 persons wanting to leave Afghanistan remain stuck there. 

RUSSIA

“On October 8, Russian authorities applied the label of “media foreign agent” to the international investigative journalism project Bellingcat, known for its investigation of the poisoning of Navalny,” according to a statement signed by the United States and almost 20 other nations. It called on Russia to improve freedom of the press in the country, citing the regime’s systematic detention of journalists. The government has subjected the media to harsh treatment after many reported on protests in support of imprisoned opposition figure Aleksey Navalny. The statement noted many cases of harassment and imprisonment of journalists from Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL), including reporter Vladislav Yesypenko who has been held and tortured since March for reporting on Russia’s invasion of the Crimea. This summer Yesypenko was indicted on specious charges and faces up to 18 years’ imprisonment, according to the State Department. 

PASSPORTS

The Department of State has issued the first US passport with an “X” gender marker. It announced that gender markers on US passports and Consular Reports of Birth Abroad (CRBAs) have been changed regarding “gender identity” as the Department is moving towards adding an X gender marker for non-binary, intersex, and gender non-conforming persons applying for a U.S. passport or CRBA. On Tuesday, New Price, Department Spokesperson, used the Noon Briefing to announce that it was “Intersex Awareness Day.” It appears that climate change and sexual orientation are now moving to the top of the Biden Administration’s foreign policy agenda this week.

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SUDAN

On Tuesday the State Department Spokesperson condemned the anti-democratic actions of the Sudanese military, saying – “it subverted the constitutional declaration of 2019, but in some ways, more importantly, it has subverted the democratic aspirations of the Sudanese people…We’ve joined nations and organizations from across the world in expressing concern. That includes the African Union, it includes the UN, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, France, Germany, Canada, and the UK, Sudan’s neighbors as well.” While $700 million in emergency economic support funds (ESF) to Sudan have been suspended, humanitarian aid is continuing. Price would not confirm if the US will place any additional sanctions on the country or take any new actions against those individuals in the military responsible for the military takeover in Sudan.

TAIWAN

The United States wants Taiwan to be given permission to participate in a meaningfully way in the United Nations system, according to a press statement released on Tuesday by the State Department. Price said “the statement made a point that we support Taiwan’s ability to participate meaningfully at the UN and to contribute its valuable expertise to address many of the global challenges we face. That includes global public health, the environment and climate change, development assistance, technical standards, and economic cooperation as well. We reiterated our commitment to Taiwan’s meaningful participation at the World Health Organization and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, and we will continue to support Taiwan’s meaningful participation in such fora. The Biden agenda highlighted climate change and the environment in the statement while neglecting to mention increasingly aggressive Chinese behavior toward Taiwan.

In a back and forth, heated discussion with a reporter during the press briefing, a reporter said to Price that “The problem is that no one knows what that means, and it just creates more confusion and makes the situation worse. Do you not get that?” Price would only respond that it “was abundantly clear.” Senior officials in the Biden Administration continue to make statements out of sync with its actions. Lately, the media is showing its frustration with the lack of transparency.

Countering China in the Pacific may be the greatest test of military strength and political willpower by democratic nations since World War II. The new three-way agreement among the governments of Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States [AUKUS], which initially formed a strategic defense alliance to build a class of nuclear-propelled submarines, has expanded into a coalition working across the Indo-Pacific region to push back against the rising threat of an aggressive China. Former Undersecretary of State Thomas Shannon addressed that threat this week at a US Naval Institute conference where he said the most remarkable thing about the agreement is the sharing of advanced technologies, including nuclear propulsion for submarines, and Canberra’s commitment “to an adversarial role with China,”, according to John Grady writing in USNI News. 

AUKUS adds to other US Indo-Pacific defense agreements that include five formal treaty alliances with Japan, South Korea, Thailand, the Philippines, and Australia-New Zealand. During a CNN interview this week Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen acknowledged for the first time publicly that the United States has 32 troops on the ground in Taiwan training its military forces. While a mostly symbolic move it indicates the official return of US military to the island for the first time since the American Taiwan Defense Commanded ended in 1979. President Biden last week told a televised forum that the United States was ready to defend Taiwan against an invasion from China. But all is not as positive as it appears. 

While it seemed to be good news for Taiwan and the other democratic states of the Indo-Pacific region, senior officials in the Biden Administration quickly exhibited a lack of political willpower when they immediately backed off the President’s statement of support for Taiwan. 

Chinese officials in Beijing viewed the retraction as indicative of a lack of strong leadership by the United States and confirmation of the Biden Administration’s unwillingness to physically confront China should, or when, it decides to take back Taiwan. The White House retreat conflicted with statements by Secretary of State Antony Blinken that “Taiwan has become a democratic success story” and that the US is among many UN members who “view Taiwan as a valued partner and trusted friend.” Blinken added that “Taiwan’s meaningful participation in the UN system is not a political issue, but a pragmatic one.” 

Mixed messages by senior Biden Administration officials have emboldened Chinese President Xi Jinping to move aggressively in the South China Sea. Over China’s National Day week at the beginning of October, Beijing sent a record number of 149 military aircraft southwest of Taiwan in strike group formations. As a warning to Taiwan and the West it also conducted beach landing exercises on its side of the Taiwan Strait. Ma Xiaoguang, spokesman for the Taiwan Affairs Office in Beijing, defiantly told reporters that “Taiwan has no right to join the United Nations.” Chinese President Xi Jinping and the CCP have a long history of continuing to push their policy agenda hard until they hit a wall. So far, the Biden Administration is not building a wall. From China’s perspective there is no wall in sight. 

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If Washington and the AUKUS alliance states fail to send a consistent and strong message to China, defense analysts in Washington say that China will continue with its belligerent behavior and it can be expected to increase in intensity in the coming months. This comes as Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, confirmed to Bloomberg News for the first time that the Chinese test of a nuclear-capable missile would be very difficult to defend against. He added that “What we saw was a very significant event of a test of a hypersonic weapon system. And it is very concerning.” The Defense Department previously declined to confirm the October 16 test although military analysts knew about advances in China’s hypersonic weapons program for many months. 

If Chinese military preparations for action against Taiwan continue to intensify the AUKUS alliance may be forced into a position that risks a major war in the Pacific. It could emerge from unintended consequences of interactions during exercises or a deliberate act of aggression by China. What is certain is that mixed messages coming from the White House increase the risk among a number of nuclear-armed states in the region. Washington needs to recognize China is no longer a weak, backward nation with barefoot doctors tending its sick. Just this week Chinese researchers announced their new supercomputer is one million times more powerful than its nearest competitor, Google’s Sycamore and that a second light-based machine takes one millisecond to perform a task that would take a conventional computer 30 trillion years. This is the reality of China in 2021. The Biden Administration and AUKUS must address the threat  while the opportunity still exists.

Daria Novak provides updates on China each Friday

Photo: Pixabay

Something is amiss when FBI agents are forced to resort to using Google to interview suspected Russian spies. Unlike China’s American-based Confucius Centers which support its spy operations in the US, few in the American public are familiar with Russia’s version – the Coordinating Council of Russian Compatriots of the US (known colloquially by its Russian acronym KSORS). For several years the FBI has been investigating people connected to this diaspora group, including conducting searches of their homes and offices. The ongoing investigation, apparently opened before 2018, is looking at Russian funding of the organization across the entire United States. Foreign influence operations in the US are not uncommon. What is troubling are the amounts and types of resources Russia is pouring into its clandestine influence operations in the US while at the same time the American intelligence community is constrained by limited funding and legal restrictions that hamstring its efforts to protect the country. Russia’s President Putin, a former intelligence officer, is well aware of how the United States operates and is employing that knowledge in a soft power campaign against Washington. 

Alexander Reid Ross, writing in The Daily Beast, notes one KSORS interviewee said: “Yes! People from the FBI came to me. But it was not very serious. They did not take a translator and we used Google. That was funny.” It’s outrageous that pro-Russian intelligence elements do not view our efforts seriously at a time of heightened tension between the two countries! National security risk increases when America’s foreign adversaries feel safe ignoring our military strength and political leadership. This, however, is not the first instance. In 2014, during the Obama Administration, Russia occupied the Crimean region of the Ukraine. The Russian government, at the same time, decided to enhance its active measures against the United States by creating a “Fifth Column” in this country. It forcefully inserted personnel into KSORS who agreed to work with the Russian Embassy in Washington to advance the Kremlin’s interests. They, in essence, took over the organization to create an expansive subversive, clandestine network operating freely across the United States. 

“Critics among Russian-speaking diaspora groups in the United States claim that KSORS became increasingly adversarial amid the escalation of tensions during Russia’s occupation of the Crimea” says Ross. Former KSORS chair Igor Baboshkin was forced to leave the group when he refused instructions to  sign a statement supporting the Russian invasion of the Crimea. According to Kseniya Kirilova, of the Jamestown Foundation, at issue is how to differentiate Russian propaganda and misinformation operations from true cultural exchange programs. You Tube has footage of a Sacramento, CA area camp run by KSORS members who are teaching children military-style training . Another related Russian language You Tube video taken in Pine Bush, New York shows American children and adults involved in KSORS celebrating Russian military victories in Soviet uniforms and with weapons. It is not an innocent cultural exchange organization. Recently many KSORS members, including several of it 10 council leaders, sold their homes in the US and returned to Russia, citing a myriad of reasons, although none admitted its was due to the FBI’s investigation of the group.

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President Putin has made no secret of the fact that he intends to return Russia to a position of global glory, power and leadership. He views the United States as the greatest threat to his country and to his goal. The United States needs to recognize that not all threats to this country come from a military action on our soil. Long ago the Soviet communist leadership predicted that it would take America from within without raising the barrel of a gun. 

According to the Robert Lansing Institute, Putin also “is seeking to set up alternative interaction channels with the West via the European monarchies” in a great power competition that is increasing in intensity over the last few years. It notes that “The Federation of Russian Parties in Europe includes four existing Russian parties of the EU (Association for Human Rights in United Latvia, Union of Russians in Lithuania, Russian Party of Estonia, Party for the Defense of Russophonia of France). All those “parties” were created by Moscow to further its interests in Europe and exist solely due to its financial support.” This is a coordinated effort by Moscow inside western democracies and needs to be recognized as such as it is not a benign movement.

Daria Novak provides insights on Russia each Thursday.

As bad as the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan has been, the worse may yet be ahead.

There are significant elements within the Pakistan government and military that have extensive ties to the Taliban. It is not inconceivable that avenues exist for the terrorist regime in Kabul to acquire nuclear weapons.

The Council on Foreign Relations emphasized, following the Taliban victory, “After the Taliban took over Kabul, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan declared that the Taliban were ‘breaking the chains of slavery.’ There are three long-standing and overlapping reasons for Khan’s public show of support. First, Pakistan has vested ideological interests in the Taliban. Pakistan was created in 1947 as a Muslim nation and Islam was the glue that was supposed to hold together many otherwise disparate communities with diverse linguistic and ethnic identities… Second, Pakistani officials worry about the border with Afghanistan and believe that a Taliban government could ease their concerns. Since 1947, Afghan governments have rejected the Durand Line, which separates Pakistani Pashtun-dominated territories from Afghanistan. Afghanistan, home to a Pashtun majority, claims these territories as a part of a “Pashtunistan” or traditional Pashtun homeland. Pakistan’s government believes that the Taliban’s ideology emphasizes Islam over Pashtun identity. Third, it is imperative for Pakistan to have a Pakistan-friendly government established in Afghanistan. Pakistan accuses India of seeking to exploit its ethnic and linguistic divisions to destabilize and break up the country.”

Human Rights Watch states that:

“Pakistan is distinguished both by the sweep of its objectives and the scale of its efforts, which include soliciting funding for the Taliban, bankrolling Taliban operations, providing diplomatic support as the Taliban’s virtual emissaries abroad, arranging training for Taliban fighters, recruiting skilled and unskilled manpower to serve in Taliban armies, planning and directing offensives, providing and facilitating shipments of ammunition and fuel, and on several occasions apparently directly providing combat support.⁸³ In April and May 2001 Human Rights Watch sources reported that as many as thirty trucks a day were crossing the Pakistan border; sources inside Afghanistan reported that some of these convoys were carrying artillery shells, tank rounds, and rocket-propelled grenades.⁸⁴ Such deliveries are in direct violation of U.N. sanctions. Pakistani landmines have been found in Afghanistan; they include both antipersonnel and antivehicle mines.⁸⁵ Pakistan’s army and intelligence services, principally the Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate (ISI), contribute to making the Taliban a highly effective military force.⁸⁶ While these Pakistani agencies do not direct the policies of the IEA, senior Pakistani military and intelligence officers help plan and execute major military operations.⁸⁷ In addition, private-sector actors in Pakistan provide financial assistance to the Taliban.”

A Brooking Institute review provides this analysis:

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“What Pakistan doesn’t discuss openly is this central tension: Pakistan has long treated the Afghan Taliban as friends… Pakistan argues that a “rushed” U.S. withdrawal before peace talks has set the stage for the current situation. [there are] reports of purported Taliban fighters being treated across the border in Pakistan, and statements such as those made by its interior minister, who recently said that the Taliban’s families live in Pakistan.”

Washington’s uneasy relations with Islamabad underwent a profound change following the botched Biden departure, leaving billions of dollars’ worth of military equipment in the hands of an extremelydangerous regime, and establishing the firm impression among many that America was not  currently a significant regional presence to be reckoned with.

A Wilson Center study notes that “Pakistan has stopped responding to US carrot and stick tactics.”

In a radio interview on WABC, former presidential advisor John Bolton cautions that the Taliban could eventually get hold of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, a force consisting of 150 atomic weapons.  In addition, notes a Daily Mail article, Islamabad also possesses 102 land-based missiles and F-16 combat aircrafts with 24 nuclear launchers. It is currently testing submarine-based missiles, as well.

Illustration: Pixabay

The era of great power competition has returned. It comes at a difficult time for the U.S.

American armed forces were barely recovering from the reduced funding of the Obama era. There was a brief respite under Trump, but the recent capture of both the White House and Congress by those not inclined to recognize the enhanced danger and respond with adequate funding has placed national security in danger.

Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, many hoped and believed that, with the end of the Cold War, the era of “great power competition” had come to a close. Unfortunately, those hopes were soon dashed.  The belligerent Vladimir Putin replaced Boris Yeltsin as head of Russia. Putin’s dream is a restoration of the Soviet Empire.  Even more worrisome, China moved rapidly, intensely, and successfully to develop a superpower caliber military, which it has wielded aggressively in the Indo-Pacific region.

Beyond funding, the composition of the armed forces must change to recognize the different challenges they now face.  Gone are the days when adversaries fielded less sophisticated and smaller forces. Russia has a larger nuclear force, and China, a larger navy.

The U.S. Marine Corps is moving to acknowledge this dramatic change. The Marine Corps commandant, David H. Berger, noted in a study that his predecessor believed “the defining attributes of our current force design are no longer what the nation requires of  the Marine Corps… The Marine  Corps is not organized, trained, equipped, or postured  to meet the demands of the rapidly evolving future  operating environment… I assess that the current force  is unsuited to future requirements in size, capacity, and  specific capability.”

A report on the structure of the Marines gloomily noted that enhanced funding is not on the horizon, stating “Operating under the assumption that we will not receive  additional resources, we must divest certain existing  capabilities and capacities to free resources for essential new capabilities. The most logical way to approach divestment is to take a systems perspective and reduce infantry battalions while proportionally reducing the organizations dedicated to supporting these battalions – direct support artillery, ground mobility assets, assault support aviation, light attack aviation, and combat service support capabilities whose capacity is similarly related to the size of the ground and air combat elements to be supported.”

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Since the end of the Second World War, the Pacific had been, in strategic terms, an “American Lake.”  While some tension had existed with the Soviet Navy, the dominance of U.S. forces had been overwhelming. However, that has been dramatically altered. China’s largest-on-the globe navy places American and allied forces at deep risk.

For some time, the Marines had come to resemble the U.S. Army, operating in a somewhat similar fashion and with the type of heavy equipment typical of land operations.  The storied legacy of “island hopping,” so emblematic of Marine operations during the Second World War, appeared to be a thing of the past.  While the U.S. Navy was overwhelmingly more dominant than any potential rival, the need for beachhead operations, such as those on Iwo Jima, Saipan, and other Pacific enemy strongholds during WW2, seemed remote.

Unfortunately, that is no longer the case.  The requirement to secure island bases and engage in operations to maintain lines of resupply with America’s Pacific allies has re-emerged.

The Marines, according to a 2020 study, will have to divest certain types of equipment more suited for extended land operations, such as tanks, and replace them with other weapons. There are shortfalls in expeditionary long-range precision  fires; medium-to-long-range air defense systems;  short-range (point defense) air defense systems;  high-endurance, long-range unmanned systems with  intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance,  electronic warfare and lethal strike capabilities and disruptive and less-lethal capabilities appropriate for  countering malign activity by actors pursuing maritime  “gray zone” strategies. 

The Marines will always strive to complete their mission. Whether the politicians give them the resources to do so is the concern.

Illustration: National Park Service

The media has refused to dwell on the reality that America and its’ friends and allies are imperiled as never before since the Biden Administration took office.  

Russia has attacked a key pipeline (don’t believe the criminal organization story; nothing happens in Russia without Putin’s permission.) It is openly threatening Ukraine, and has apparently intimidated the U.S. Navy away from a Black Sea deployment. Moscow has stationed intimidating forces in the Arctic. It has developed a missile capable of launching a nuclear weapon that could destroy England with a single bomb. Beijing has taken control of a former U.S. airbase on the island of Kiribati, just 1,800 miles from Pearl Harbor.  China’s aggression escalates daily. The Philippines is under consistent incursions, Australia is threatened, both economically and physically.  Israel has come under the deadliest attack In years. The U.S. southern border is essentially a sieve.

These events did not occur spontaneously, nor are they necessarily the result of long-standing trends. They are the direct result of a current White House that does not prioritize defense issues, a Congress intent on spending trillions on questionable domestic programs while essentially cutting the Pentagon’s budget when inflation is taken into account, and a media disinterested in reporting on reporting on all the above.

Putin intimidates Ukraine and threatens to use both battlefield and new strategic nuclear weapons. Xi Jingping tells his troops to prepare for combat. Iran continues to defy bans on the development of nuclear weapons and ramps up funding for terrorist organizations. While all this is occurring, President Biden’s Secretary of Defense is concentrating on transgender issues in the military and his CIA officials look to hire “cisgender applicants with anxiety disorders.” Is it any wonder that Moscow and Beijing feel that the time is ripe for aggression?

Biden’s track record and prior rhetoric is part of the problem.  During his tenure as Vice President, the U.S. refused to even issue a diplomatic protest when China invaded the Philippines Exclusive Economic Zone, a move condemned by the World Court at the Hague.  When Russia annexed Ukraine, the Obama-Biden Administration did virtually nothing in response. For reasons that have yet to be explained, that same White House sent pallet-loads of untraceable cash to Iran and agreed to an absurd nuclear deal that allows Iran, which has pledged “Death to America” and “Death to Israel” to be completely free to build nukes as early as 2024. Biden, you may recall, also signaled weakness when he urged Obama not to go after Osama Bin Laden.  During the 2020 presidential campaign, candidate Biden criticized President Trump’s tough stance on China.

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No area highlights the disastrous results of the Biden Administration’s foreign policy outlook as much as the Middle East.  Recall a distant time the media considers shrouded in antiquity (last year!) when dramatic improvements between the Jewish State and its neighbors were being made. Solid U.S. support dissuaded substantive attacks it.

But Biden’s Progressive-inspired support for the Palestinians and the bizarre tilt towards Iran altered that paradigm. John Kerry’s betrayal of Israel in his dealings with Iran was just the tip of the iceberg.  For decades, Leftists, who have extensive influence on the Biden Administration, have pushed the anti-Israel “BDS” (Boycott, Disinvestment, Sanction) agenda, a signal to Hamas and other groups that the Jewish state does not have the full backing of the current Administration.

As China edges closer to Hawaii, Russia moves towards another annexation, and Iran accelerates its proxy war on Israel, all explosive (literally and figuratively) issues, the U.S. media remains quiescent. The explanation isn’t hard to understand. Although defense spending accounts for only about 14% of all federal spending, the Left sees every dollar spent on it as a dollar taken away from the domestic programs that it counts on to persuade their voting base to continue voting for it.

Photo: The Guard of Honor of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) take part in the military parade marking the 75th anniversary of the victory in the Great Patriotic War on Red Square in Moscow. (Xinhua/Bai Xueqi)