An Odd Presidential Campaign Season

Three more candidates joined what is becoming a crowded presidential field, as Republicans Carly Fiorina, a former business executive, who served as chief of HP computers; Dr. Ben Carson, a neuro surgeon, and former governor and TV host Mike Huckabee all joined the race.

Perhaps the most salient question, however, is Hillary Clinton’s campaign status. Despite the complete devotion of her many followers, the reality is she had a disastrous tenure as Secretary of State, low-lighted by the Benghazi debacle in which she intentionally sought to mislead the public about the causes for the attack (she tried to convince America that it was a spontaneous event brought about by a previously unknown video) and the completely failed “reset” with Russia ( which saw Moscow gain an advantage in nuclear and conventional arms, a return to its cold war bases across the planet, and the invasion of Ukraine.)

And there are the scandals. There is significant evidence that the Clinton Foundation engaged in a pay to play effort, in which international donors provided extraordinary sums to her organization in return for preferable treatment by the US government.

According to the New York Times, which is generally favorable towards her, “examples include a free-trade agreement in Colombia that benefited a major foundation donor’s natural resource investments in the South American nation, development projects in the aftermath of the Haitian earthquake in 2010,” Even more serious, as reported by Fox News, the unfolding scandal in which a substantial share of America’s uranium, a crucial element in the development of nuclear weapons, was given to Russia occurred under her watch following the donation of two million shares of the company involved to the Foundation.
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As a police detective might say, all this fits the modus operandi of the Clintons. During husband Bill’s tenure as President, his campaign unlawfully benefited from Chinese cash donations, followed by favorable treatment towards Beijing, including the sale of Cray super computers, which allowed the People’s Liberation Army to move rapidly ahead in technology. President Clinton also signed into law legislation allowing the Chinese to no longer be subjected to annual reviews for trade, which allowed that nation’s sales to the US to skyrocket and caused devastation in the U.S. manufacturing sector.

The Clinton Foundation itself, apart from the international scandals, has a questionable reputation. Of the 144.3 billion it raised since it was founded in 2001, only 10% has been provided to actual charitable work. The Foundation has been placed on a “watch list” for questionable nonprofits.

Despite all the above, other potential Democrat candidates, such as Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, former Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley, and former Senator James Webb, have failed to gain much traction.

Quick Analysis

Ukraine’s Frozen Conflict

As we approach winter in the northern hemisphere, the war in Ukraine is beginning to resemble a “frozen conflict” from many perspectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the media he hopes the war will end faster once President-elect Trump takes over in January. Opinions in Moscow, however, differ from that of the Ukrainian leader. Russian President Vladimir Putin argues that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) needs to exclude Ukraine from joining in “exchange” for peace. If it does not, he says, then no end to the war is in sight. So far there is no Christmas solution. Several NATO countries, according to Vladimir Socor of the Jamestown Foundation, are tentatively considering “coalitions-of-the-willing” to provide security for Ukraine outside of the formal NATO framework. There is, however, no collective mechanism today under which such an arrangement is viable. According to the NATO Charter, while Ukraine is a NATO partner country, it may not join as a full member since it has not fulfilled the requirements for membership. That has not stopped NATO and allies from continuing “to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence,” according to the organization. Socor says that keeping Ukraine out of NATO will not advance peace with Russia. Waiting for a peace settlement, he suggests, would only serve to encourage Moscow to continue the war indefinitely. Although the Biden Administration officially withdrew its support for Ukrainian membership in 2021, NATO maintains an “open door” policy toward membership-seeking countries. The current White House position led the way for European states to oppose Ukraine’s membership saying that a decision should be delayed until “conditions are met.” Biden pushed for changing “open door” to a “bridge” metaphor. It is not intended as an across-the-board NATO policy and has been implemented in the past on a case-by-case basis, says Socor. “The alliance’s open-door policy was not fully insulated from Russia’s non-statutory blocking power, and NATO-aspirant countries’ path toward membership was not always irreversible.” Russia has successfully blocked states like Georgia from joining, first in 2008 and again after the war in Ukraine began in 2014. Russia recognizes the value add of Ukraine to NATO is enormous and that Kyiv has a better case than some other nations. Putin’s invasion was, in part, intended to foreclose that option. By 2021, Moscow was pushing hard to maximize its war objectives, which included further annexations of Ukrainian territory. A main goal for Putin was, and is, to ensure there is no Ukraine left to join NATO. As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office in January, he is faced with the historical challenges presented by the war. Post-conflict security guarantees were the center of several proposals made during the 2023 military stalemate. The incoming Trump Administration has yet to outline how it intends to handle the Russia-Ukraine war. Analysts in Washington believe that the new Administration will expect its European allies to guarantee the majority of Ukraine’s security needs. As we approach 2025, several European nations have acknowledged that they do not view Ukraine as eligible for NATO membership as it would draw the organization into the middle of the conflict. Others want to wait until the war is over or pending a “peace” settlement before considering Ukrainian membership. Socor reports that some “influential voices” are suggesting that “Kyiv should join NATO after “freezing” the war along a stable armistice line, de facto accepting Ukraine’s partition, with NATO security guarantees applying de jure to the government-controlled territory only.” This would mean starting accession talks soon with the actual talks to commence only after a ceasefire is in place. Trump arrives in Washington at a time when Putin’s hybrid strategies of war in Ukraine have eviscerated commonly-held differences between war and peace. “Absent a political consensus in NATO over Ukrainian membership, certain European allies, including France’s President Emmanuel Macron, are holding informal consultations about post-conflict security guarantees to Kyiv by NATO members outside of NATO’s framework,” according to the Jamestown Foundation. The Biden Administration downplayed the discussions on possible forms of military assistance and defense industry cooperation by sending only an Assistant Secretary of State. For a European peace to hold the Trump Administration would need to formally extend the United States’ nuclear deterrence to Ukraine. Options under discussion in Europe include a “coalition of the resolute” to deploy forces to Ukraine as part of a possible armistice package, deterring further Russian attacks, says Secor. European officials are also debating, without any agreement, whether its military forces could perform non-combat logistical roles to free Ukrainian forces to fight. None of the possible courses of action has moved forward as all eyes are waiting on the incoming Trump Administration for clues about its intended level of support for a NATO framework and other non-NATO proposals. Daria Novak served in the U.S. State Dept.